Speculation: What are the odds?

[Taylorhall4]

Why you guys heff to be mad

 

[Billybaroo*]

I said they were signings, not trades, and dumb one's at that. Lol at you for lauding a cap dump deal as some kind of "evidence" of Mact's competency.

When youve **** your pants for ten years, you dont need "more time" to prove to someone you are going to keep right on ******** them for as long as some dimwit president and jocksniffing owner are willing to allow you to do so.

Reading a bit closer would make it clear that I was not lauding the Smid trade. I was suggesting that story has let to be written.
Lol indeed.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Reading a bit closer would make it clear that I was not lauding the Smid trade. I was suggesting that story has let to be written.
Lol indeed.

No it doesnt "Let to be written".

You dont take one of if not the only physical, large, nhl caliber dmen and trade him for magic beans when your defense is half made up of AHL caliber defenders who are pillow soft and undersized.

Only a moron does that.

Especially when you consider they could have drafted a BETTER goaltending prospect in either Tristan Jarry or Eric Comrie with their second round pick, which they instead traded down to take Russians nobody wanted.

Only a moron does that.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Watching Another Oiler GM on the TSN Draft Lottery Show must be pure comedy for the rest of the league

Everyone secretly snickering at them

 

[nexttothemoon]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Oilers are looking to draft #3 currently if you go by the current odds... of course it could change (and likely will) depending on how they do the rest of the way and the results of the draft lottery of course.

Chances of specifically picking Ekblad probably aren't great though because they'd basically have to win the lottery to pick him as he's almost assuredly going #1... maybe Reinhart could go #1 but I wouldn't bet on it.

So yes the odds even if they finish dead last are probably only about 25% and if they finish 29th or better then the odds get even lower.


I STRONGLY don't agree with trading the 1st round pick away though.

MacT needs to use his head and make trades and acquisitions WITHOUT throwing away the most obvious way of acquiring elite talent... that high 1st round pick.

Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse... all key elite assets and if you have the opportunity to add an Ekblad/Reinhart you do it because you won't be getting an elite talent like that any other way.

This crappy season means nothing if he ships out that pick for some piece which won't have as much potential or upside as that player like Ekblad or Reinhart will (and I can guarantee it won't as no team will give up an elite established player for that pick).

 

[SometimesY]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Oilers are looking to draft #3 currently if you go by the current odds... of course it could change (and likely will) depending on how they do the rest of the way and the results of the draft lottery of course.

Chances of specifically picking Ekblad probably aren't great though because they'd basically have to win the lottery to pick him as he's almost assuredly going #1... maybe Reinhart could go #1 but I wouldn't bet on it.

So yes the odds even if they finish dead last are probably only about 25% and if they finish 29th or better then the odds get even lower.


I STRONGLY don't agree with trading the 1st round pick away though.

MacT needs to use his head and make trades and acquisitions WITHOUT throwing away the most obvious way of acquiring elite talent... that high 1st round pick.

Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse... all key elite assets and if you have the opportunity to add an Ekblad/Reinhart you do it because you won't be getting an elite talent like that any other way.

This crappy season means nothing if he ships out that pick for some piece which won't have as much potential or upside as that player like Ekblad or Reinhart will (and I can guarantee it won't as no team will give up an elite established player for that pick).

I agree, don't trade this pick. At least until we know where we are picking. There is NO one in the NHL that can help us this year. There is no reason to panic move and trade our pick.

 

[Bangers]

I don't see the Sabres taking Ekblad, so as it stands now I think he goes to either the Panthers or the Oilers

 

[nexttothemoon]

Honestly this season is so broken and toasted (was from the start really) that the Oilers should be trying to acquire another high 1st rounder this year if anything.

I know most would say... we don't need yet another shiny prospect.. how does that help the team NOW?

Well the answer is it doesn't BUT this season is TOAST and the very best the Oilers are going to finish in the West is maybe 13th or 12th if they start playing better hockey down the stretch and catch a team or two like the rebuilding Flames or the offensively inept Preds.

Playoffs for this team has literally ZERO chance of happening.

So... if the season is toast and you can pick up an Ekblad/Reinhart then you have to do it.

Summer can be used to try and fill holes with UFA acquisitions and MacT has to put on his trade cap to ship out roster players and acquire other roster players... the good old fashioned way.

 

[CorpseFX]

I agree, don't trade this pick. At least until we know where we are picking. There is NO one in the NHL that can help us this year. There is no reason to panic move and trade our pick.

yep, if it's getting traded it's likely getting done at or around the draft. this year is a lame duck season and most of next year will be also.

it'll also be something super lame where Mac-T chases some mid-level dongers that we already kind of know about (they always do it...).. like Braydon Corburn + So-So Simmonds... Coburn will get torched as a #1 and we'll all barf when the pick turns into something awesome

 

[Jamie]

No it doesnt "Let to be written".

You dont take one of if not the only physical, large, nhl caliber dmen and trade him for magic beans when your defense is half made up of AHL caliber defenders who are pillow soft and undersized.

Only a moron does that.

Especially when you consider they could have drafted a BETTER goaltending prospect in either Tristan Jarry or Eric Comrie with their second round pick, which they instead traded down to take Russians nobody wanted.

Only a moron does that.

It's really too bad you are not the GM and Coach of the Oilers. I'm sure we'd be first overall year after year with you at the helm. You are very good at proving to others they are wrong and you are right. In fact, you've made it quite clear there is no other opinion that matters aside from your own. Some may consider you a bully, first 'LOL' at someone, then grammar policing on a typo with more laughing at them, but it's probably just strong managing skills. It's too bad that becoming the Oilers GM and/or Coach would be well below your credentials. You probably should just relax though as it's a waste of your intelligence.

 

[ElFossum]

You must have quite the crystal ball to determine the Smid trade (Im sure you do. Everything seems very certain).
Oh, btw, Labs, & Grebeshkov (or geez, sorry, forgot to use the very cute nicknames) weren't trades.
And I dunno, (you seem to) , was Bryz prepared to come here in the summer?
Only in some peoples world can a GM be assessed 6 months into his tenure.

The team has suffered from incompetency for the better part of a decade. We were promised some moves, and promised that mediocrity isn't enough. We're tired fans, aren't you?

 

[I am the Liquor]

It's really too bad you are not the GM and Coach of the Oilers. I'm sure we'd be first overall year after year with you at the helm. You are very good at proving to others they are wrong and you are right. In fact, you've made it quite clear there is no other opinion that matters aside from your own. Some may consider you a bully, first 'LOL' at someone, then grammar policing on a typo with more laughing at them, but it's probably just strong managing skills. It's too bad that becoming the Oilers GM and/or Coach would be well below your credentials. You probably should just relax though as it's a waste of your intelligence.

Me, you or the dog crap in my backyard would be an improvement over current management. We certainly couldnt do any worse. If defending myself against trolls makes me a bully then I will wear the moniker with pride.

 

[aspin]

I don't see the Sabres taking Ekblad, so as it stands now I think he goes to either the Panthers or the Oilers

I totally agree. The Sanbres will not take Ekblad after having taking Zadorov and Ristolainen that last two years. The NYI will not take him either a that is all they have been drafting the last three years is defencemen. They are flush at that position. The one we have to worry about is Florida.

 

[Jumptheshark]

wrong thread

 

[Billybaroo*]

No it doesnt "Let to be written".

You dont take one of if not the only physical, large, nhl caliber dmen and trade him for magic beans when your defense is half made up of AHL caliber defenders who are pillow soft and undersized.

Only a moron does that.

Especially when you consider they could have drafted a BETTER goaltending prospect in either Tristan Jarry or Eric Comrie with their second round pick, which they instead traded down to take Russians nobody wanted.
Only a moron does that.

You must be an insider &/ or an NHL scout to make such pronouncements.
And I really don't understand your apparent need to call people names, or give negative nick names. I really don't think it adds much.
But what I am curious about why you never mention the Horcoff trade (who was supposedly untradeable).I dunno, maybe you liked Horcoff and wished he would still be here. Or the Belov signing.

 

[Billybaroo*]

It's really too bad you are not the GM and Coach of the Oilers. I'm sure we'd be first overall year after year with you at the helm. You are very good at proving to others they are wrong and you are right. In fact, you've made it quite clear there is no other opinion that matters aside from your own. Some may consider you a bully, first 'LOL' at someone, then grammar policing on a typo with more laughing at them, but it's probably just strong managing skills. It's too bad that becoming the Oilers GM and/or Coach would be well below your credentials. You probably should just relax though as it's a waste of your intelligence.

You missed name calling and cute nicknames.

 

[Beerfish]

IATL is pretty well spot on in this regard. MacT's free agent signings are perhaps worse than Tamboesque for a few of these guys. His actions at the draft were pure stupid considering they bellowed that they got Broissiot to shore up the Goalie prospect talent. They essentially had to deal Smid for cap reasons because they didn't move on Bryz in the off season and instead made a couple of glory signings in Garbagcov and lolbarbara.

 

[thadd]

A lot of great comments here. I got really sidetracked today by some *******s who're literally trying to get me deported for being an awesome human being. No. I'm serious.

Anyhoo...

If we got a top 2 pick, I don't see it getting traded unless we are the side that's overpaying. You know after we drafted Hall, each year Tambo said that he'd be open to trading the pick. Before the last draft Mac-T said he'd be open to trading the pick. It never happened. It never even came close to happening.

And it didn't happen because Edmonton was looking for a fair deal. IMO if we're going to trade a top 2 pick getting 85% of the value back IS a fair trade. Mac-T might be too green to recognize this and I have a feeling that he doesn't have the balls to make a bold move like he said that he would. Prospects are prospects. It's hard to trade a proven talent for someone that might turn into the next Patrick Stephan.

Next point. Before I get to it I'll just mention that I'm contradicting what I was talking about a few weeks ago. It's very unlikely that we'll be able to make a trade for a #1 d-man and the odds of them becoming a free agent are quite low.

1: Toronto will resign Dion. He's in a position to demand as much money as he wants and they'll pay pretty much anything. They'll be drafting 8th-10th after next season without him.
2: Even if Dan Boyle does have a few god years left in the tank and San Jose will surely pay him to stick around. He's having another great season. Sharks can't afford to lose him considering how competitive LA, Vancouver and Anaheim are.
3: Weber is going nowhere. Think about the fact that Nashville was in a shady financial situation not so long ago. Then factor in the absolutely insane amount of money that the Predators have paged Weber. He's going nowhere.
4: Weber being untouchable might make Jones tradable, but Jones is not experienced enough to turn our organization around. Bringing him in would be very similar to bringing Nurse and Ekblad up. The only difference is that he's got a year playing with Weber and we'd be paying through the nose for him.

You could suggest that Gagner + Eberle + 2nd overall = Weber.

You could tell me that it gives Nashville much needed offence up front and that they've got enough character and grit up there that Ebs and Gags would fit in there perfectly. You could tell me that their combined cap hit of less than 9M per season plus drafting the 2nd best available player would be huge for them... but I'm not convinced that they'd go for it. Nashville fans on these boards certainly wouldn't.

Continuously drafting early will pay off if we manage to to raise some good support players, but those guys are going to take a while to develop. Like if Pitlick were rounding out into a 2nd line winger. That was his potential ceiling when we drafted him. Now he's looking like he has the potential to turn into a decent 3rd line winger. We need more out of picks like him and Curtis Hamilton.

You know, if Mac-T really had balls and we had the 2nd overall pick, he'd draft down to 3rd-5th and pick the best forward available for US. I don't mean skilled. I mean someone who's going to knock people around while putting 50+ points up playing in a top 6 role. He won't do that, though because the fans will crucify him and the city would be calling for his head before the guy drafted would have a chance to proof his usefulness to the organization.

If we get a top 2 pick, Ekblad is ours. The best thing that could happen to us would probably be to get 4th or 5th overall so we could reach down a couple of spots to grab a REAL power forward, do whatever you can to get a top 4 d man + with one of our wingers and hope he's the kind of guy who can mentor Nurse next year.

 

[Oscar Acosta]

How depressing to even be talking about this again. Year after year, and no matter who they pick it doesn't seem like it'll ever make a difference.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

How depressing to even be talking about this again. Year after year, and no matter who they pick it doesn't seem like it'll ever make a difference.

No 3 first overall pick forwards can turn this team around when your defense is this ****ing bad:

Ference-Larsen
Belov-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz

This defense is truly in the top 3 in the league for being awful.

 

[phaedrusDH]

As a Kingston Frontenacs fan, i'm going to be sad if they are in a position to pick Bennett and they trade it, or pick someone else. It would most likely be for the best, but nonetheless, Bennett's a great prospect and it'd be fun to cheer him on and watch him develop in an Oilers uniform.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

I don't see the Sabres taking Ekblad, so as it stands now I think he goes to either the Panthers or the Oilers

It would make zero sense for Buffalo to take Ekblad when their best centerman is currently Cody Hodgson!

Buffalo takes Sam Reinhart 1st overall

 

[Oscar Acosta]

And it has been for years. The fact is the management is so slow to realize anything or refuse to make any changes. Another #1 pick and they'll still ice the worst supporting cast possible.

 

[thadd]

It would make zero sense for Buffalo to take Ekblad when their best centerman is currently Cody Hodgson!

Buffalo takes Sam Reinhart 1st overall

I agree.

Cody is turning into a good #2 C, but Buffalo needs a #1 C. They've got a bunch of good young up and coming wingers with size and offensive upside. With Reinhart up front and the d-men they've got coming up through the system they'll be a force to be messed with.

 

[Billybaroo*]

IATL is pretty well spot on in this regard. MacT's free agent signings are perhaps worse than Tamboesque for a few of these guys. His actions at the draft were pure stupid considering they bellowed that they got Broissiot to shore up the Goalie prospect talent. They essentially had to deal Smid for cap reasons because they didn't move on Bryz in the off season and instead made a couple of glory signings in Garbagcov and lolbarbara.

I dunno..Getting rid of Horcoff, getting Perron, signing Gordon, Ference, Belov, are pretty good moves. The trade at the draft was a good one.
All in all a good start imp. Trying to recover from the damage Tambo did is not quick/easy..