What's our path to the playoffs?
Goals against was a big issue, so why is that?
1. Goaltending. We were in the bottom third in terms of sv%, I think we can improve in this regard with Nilsson taking more starts and our goalie prospects improving over Anderson.
2. PK was bottom 5 of the league. Again, goaltending could help, but we could also see improvements here by addressing the D, and our young forward group maturing. We also took too many penalties, so improving discipline could help address this.
3. carrying the play more: far too much time is spent in our end, so as we improve in that aspect, we will see an improvement in Shots against and thus goals.
Goals for was in the bottom of the middle third, can we help there?
1. We need more high end talent up front, luckily it's on the way in two top 6ish picks. There's also Batherson, Norris and Brown,
2. More D depth should help exit our end, and keep it in their end. This helps both goals for and against. Wolanin and Brannstrom are close, JBD and Thomson a little ways off. Jaros needs to have a bounce back year. Zub might help too.
How much do we need to do in the above to be contending for a playoff spot?
- Well, I think a goal diff at or close to neutral should be the baseline. We were at -52.
How do we make up 52 goals?
1. an improvement of 3 fewer shots against per game will shave off 22 goals. 1.5 fewer shots, 11 goals.
2. Improving sv% to .910 would improve us to 42 fewer at 3 less shots, and 33 fewer at 1.5 fewer shots. Alternatively, 25 fewer shots at .905 sv% with 3 less shots, and 22 fewer with 1.5 fewer shots.
Whatever the above you choose, you need to make up the rest in offence.
So how feasible is it? I think 1.5 fewer shots and a sv% of .905 is doable as early as next season. Longer term it could be more. We could shave off 16 Penalties and save another 4 goals, or improve our PK to 80% to shave off 9, but this impacts sv% and shots against, so lets leave that out for now and assume it's already incorporated. So that 22 goals down and 30 to make up. 30 more goals would make put us around the middle of the league in scoring. How long will it take for the prospects and draft picks to make that impact, along with increased production from our young kids? Idk, but I think we could see a big jump with a top 3 pick and hitting on some prospects in the system.
It could be sooner than we think, all boils down to a bit of luck with the prospects and picks, as well as goaltending imo.