Silver Seven Weekly Question: When will the Senators return to the playoffs?

[Sweatred]

Fans and players will struggle with this way of managing a team: Sens will have a worst reputation than now if you never keep you're players more than 6, 7 years.

This is the intersection of fan crush vs winning models. Extending FA’s increases your chances of winning a little (a year or two?) but often destroys your organization for years requiring an overhaul. Compare the Miami Marlins history of selling off talent and restocking quickly vs the blue jays taking on Tulo and others.

I think their is a fine line where the right players can be moved out and if the “next exciting prospect” is taking his place and the team is competing fans should be happy.

The EK and RD are glaringly obvious examples that trading a star was the right thing to do. Fans hated both and overwhelmingly would have paid either. The Stone deal hurt a bit more but we don’t know if he wanted to stay anyway and that deal may provide more WAR ha king traded him than signing him.

 

[Micklebot]

What's our path to the playoffs?

Goals against was a big issue, so why is that?
1. Goaltending. We were in the bottom third in terms of sv%, I think we can improve in this regard with Nilsson taking more starts and our goalie prospects improving over Anderson.
2. PK was bottom 5 of the league. Again, goaltending could help, but we could also see improvements here by addressing the D, and our young forward group maturing. We also took too many penalties, so improving discipline could help address this.
3. carrying the play more: far too much time is spent in our end, so as we improve in that aspect, we will see an improvement in Shots against and thus goals.

Goals for was in the bottom of the middle third, can we help there?
1. We need more high end talent up front, luckily it's on the way in two top 6ish picks. There's also Batherson, Norris and Brown,
2. More D depth should help exit our end, and keep it in their end. This helps both goals for and against. Wolanin and Brannstrom are close, JBD and Thomson a little ways off. Jaros needs to have a bounce back year. Zub might help too.

How much do we need to do in the above to be contending for a playoff spot?
- Well, I think a goal diff at or close to neutral should be the baseline. We were at -52.

How do we make up 52 goals?
1. an improvement of 3 fewer shots against per game will shave off 22 goals. 1.5 fewer shots, 11 goals.
2. Improving sv% to .910 would improve us to 42 fewer at 3 less shots, and 33 fewer at 1.5 fewer shots. Alternatively, 25 fewer shots at .905 sv% with 3 less shots, and 22 fewer with 1.5 fewer shots.

Whatever the above you choose, you need to make up the rest in offence.

So how feasible is it? I think 1.5 fewer shots and a sv% of .905 is doable as early as next season. Longer term it could be more. We could shave off 16 Penalties and save another 4 goals, or improve our PK to 80% to shave off 9, but this impacts sv% and shots against, so lets leave that out for now and assume it's already incorporated. So that 22 goals down and 30 to make up. 30 more goals would make put us around the middle of the league in scoring. How long will it take for the prospects and draft picks to make that impact, along with increased production from our young kids? Idk, but I think we could see a big jump with a top 3 pick and hitting on some prospects in the system.

It could be sooner than we think, all boils down to a bit of luck with the prospects and picks, as well as goaltending imo.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This is the intersection of fan crush vs winning models. Extending FA’s increases your chances of winning a little (a year or two?) but often destroys your organization for years requiring an overhaul. Compare the Miami Marlins history of selling off talent and restocking quickly vs the blue jays taking on Tulo and others.

I think their is a fine line where the right players can be moved out and if the “next exciting prospect” is taking his place and the team is competing fans should be happy.

The EK and RD are glaringly obvious examples that trading a star was the right thing to do. Fans hated both and overwhelmingly would have paid either. The Stone deal hurt a bit more but we don’t know if he wanted to stay anyway and that deal may provide more WAR ha king traded him than signing him.

So your winning model for hockey is based on baseball? Who's the pitcher in hockey? The goalie? ... Anyway.... since you brought up winning models.. Can you explain yours. I mean I guarantee if its any good at all NHL teams would listen.

 

[Sweatred]

So your winning model for hockey is based on baseball? Who's the pitcher in hockey? The goalie? ... Anyway.... since you brought up winning models.. Can you explain yours. I mean I guarantee if its any good at all NHL teams would listen.

No I don’t think I said that my winning model is based on baseball (I find this a common reply to you).

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No I don’t think I said that my winning model is based on baseball (I find this a common reply to you).

You said to compare the Marlins vs the BlueJays to make your case.. that's baseball is it not?

Anyway out with your winning model for hockey teams.

 

[Sweatred]

You said to compare the Marlins vs the BlueJays to make your case.. that's baseball is it not?

Anyway out with your winning model for hockey teams.

Feel free to reread the thread. I’m not playing your little game.

 

[Sweatred]

What's our path to the playoffs?

Goals against was a big issue, so why is that?
1. Goaltending. We were in the bottom third in terms of sv%, I think we can improve in this regard with Nilsson taking more starts and our goalie prospects improving over Anderson.
2. PK was bottom 5 of the league. Again, goaltending could help, but we could also see improvements here by addressing the D, and our young forward group maturing. We also took too many penalties, so improving discipline could help address this.
3. carrying the play more: far too much time is spent in our end, so as we improve in that aspect, we will see an improvement in Shots against and thus goals.

Goals for was in the bottom of the middle third, can we help there?
1. We need more high end talent up front, luckily it's on the way in two top 6ish picks. There's also Batherson, Norris and Brown,
2. More D depth should help exit our end, and keep it in their end. This helps both goals for and against. Wolanin and Brannstrom are close, JBD and Thomson a little ways off. Jaros needs to have a bounce back year. Zub might help too.

How much do we need to do in the above to be contending for a playoff spot?
- Well, I think a goal diff at or close to neutral should be the baseline. We were at -52.

How do we make up 52 goals?
1. an improvement of 3 fewer shots against per game will shave off 22 goals. 1.5 fewer shots, 11 goals.
2. Improving sv% to .910 would improve us to 42 fewer at 3 less shots, and 33 fewer at 1.5 fewer shots. Alternatively, 25 fewer shots at .905 sv% with 3 less shots, and 22 fewer with 1.5 fewer shots.

Whatever the above you choose, you need to make up the rest in offence.

So how feasible is it? I think 1.5 fewer shots and a sv% of .905 is doable as early as next season. Longer term it could be more. We could shave off 16 Penalties and save another 4 goals, or improve our PK to 80% to shave off 9, but this impacts sv% and shots against, so lets leave that out for now and assume it's already incorporated. So that 22 goals down and 30 to make up. 30 more goals would make put us around the middle of the league in scoring. How long will it take for the prospects and draft picks to make that impact, along with increased production from our young kids? Idk, but I think we could see a big jump with a top 3 pick and hitting on some prospects in the system.

It could be sooner than we think, all boils down to a bit of luck with the prospects and picks, as well as goaltending imo.

We have lost Pageau’s and Ennis’s goals and I doubt Borocop maintains last years pace . I doubt Norris and Batherson can equal Pager+Ennis.

I think even with good rookie seasons we are looking at a similair number. Maybe a few more on the PP with more chances and more skill.

 

[guyzeur]

Connor Brown will play 5 more min per game to replace Ennis' goals

 

[Micklebot]

We have lost Pageau’s and Ennis’s goals and I doubt Borocop maintains last years pace . I doubt Norris and Batherson can equal Pager+Ennis.

I think even with good rookie seasons we are looking at a similair number. Maybe a few more on the PP with more chances and more skill.

Yeah. Next year probably isn't the year, but i do think Wolaninis a big boost to our backend, Brannstom could also take a significant step forward.

Up front LBrown could really help the PP if he cracks the roster, a mentally healthy Ryan might make a bigger impact than Ennis too (though not likely on the PK). I could see Formenton cracking the roster and being a really good PK'r.

Add in Byfield or Lafreniere and you might have enough to surprise.

52 goals off the differential is a lofty target. I'd be impressed if we managed in the next two years but it isn't impossible, and a hot goalie can make a world of difference.

 

[Sweatred]

Yeah. Next year probably isn't the year, but i do think Wolaninis a big boost to our backend, Brannstom could also take a significant step forward.

Up front LBrown could really help the PP if he cracks the roster, a mentally healthy Ryan might make a bigger impact than Ennis too (though not likely on the PK). I could see Formenton cracking the roster and being a really good PK'r.

Add in Byfield or Lafreniere and you might have enough to surprise.

52 goals off the differential is a lofty target. I'd be impressed if we managed in the next two years but it isn't impossible, and a hot goalie can make a world of difference.

Ryan at least provides some reliability, strength, and decent puck control to Brown or Norris. However, old Bobby hasn’t scored over 15G in the past 4 season so I don’t think we can expect much next season.

I like the pairing but I don’t know if that will insulate Brown enough to give him a chance of success. Who can he play with that will let him get 30+ assists?

 

[Sweatred]

You said to compare the Marlins vs the BlueJays to make your case.. that's baseball is it not?

Anyway out with your winning model for hockey teams.

[mod]
We don’t, and don’t need to, agree on player eval... I’ll keep mine thanks, you can keep yours.

 

[thinkwild]

Connor Brown will play 5 more min per game to replace Ennis' goals

You forgot to put in a trigger warning.

Even if we subscribe to the idea of a quick 3 yr rebuild, (which i am still suspicious is a bit of a fantasy island) we have time to go before we can even consider it quick. I still remember the early Sparky Allison Sens, a hot mess, young team, slowly accumulated talent, one day went on a winning streak and then arrived. I almost hope it doesnt happen next year or maybe even the year after out of a fear of prematurely going for it.

But its that wait for that one day, when they go on an unexpected tear, and we all go - Sens are like Whoa.

 

[Micklebot]

Ryan at least provides some reliability, strength, and a decent puck control to Brown or Norris. However, old Bobby hasn’t scored over 15G in the past 4 season so I don’t think we can expect much next season.

I like the pairing but I don’t know if that will insulate Brown enough to give him a chance of success. Who can he play with that will let him get 30+ assists?

I suggested he might replace Ennis' contribution, which was 14 goals. Bobby probably hasn't been mentally checked in over those past 4 seasons either, and certainly hasn't been 100% healthy. I think him having a bounce back season is a real possibility. If he's playing with Tkachuk, who he showed some late season chemistry with, I think that could work out well. He has an ability to funnel the puck to the net even if his shot isn't what it once was, and Tkachuk is always there causing mayhem.

Forward lines in no particular order:

Tkachuk-Norris/L.Brown-Ryan
Duclair-Norris/L.Brown-Batherson
Paul-Tierney-C.Brown
Balcers/Formenton-White-Anisimov

If we land Byfield or Lafreniere at the draft, they probably bump someone out, say Balcers and Anisimov, or possibly Brown. We lack experience up the middle for sure though.

D pairings:

Chabot-Zaitsev
Wolanin-Zub
Reilly/Boro-Brannstrom

Wolanin adds far more offense and puck movement than Hainsey or DeMelo did, but we'll be lacking in size and defense first mentality. Hopefully Jaros has a resurgence, he's got the tools to be a great bottom pair guy. We might have to go UFA shopping to land a Hainsey replacement, but a year later JBD might be ready.

Goal

Nilsson
Hogberg

I think these two could get us to a .905 sv%, and anything more is gravy.

 

[Sweatred]

I suggested he might replace Ennis' contribution, which was 14 goals. Bobby probably hasn't been mentally checked in over those past 4 seasons either, and certainly hasn't been 100% healthy. I think him having a bounce back season is a real possibility. If he's playing with Tkachuk, who he showed some late season chemistry with, I think that could work out well. He has an ability to funnel the puck to the net even if his shot isn't what it once was, and Tkachuk is always there causing mayhem.

Forward lines in no particular order:

Tkachuk-Norris/L.Brown-Ryan
Duclair-Norris/L.Brown-Batherson
Paul-Tierney-C.Brown
Balcers/Formenton-White-Anisimov

If we land Byfield or Lafreniere at the draft, they probably bump someone out, say Balcers and Anisimov, or possibly Brown. We lack experience up the middle for sure though.

D pairings:

Chabot-Zaitsev
Wolanin-Zub
Reilly/Boro-Brannstrom

Wolanin adds far more offense and puck movement than Hainsey or DeMelo did, but we'll be lacking in size and defense first mentality. Hopefully Jaros has a resurgence, he's got the tools to be a great bottom pair guy. We might have to go UFA shopping to land a Hainsey replacement, but a year later JBD might be ready.

Goal

Nilsson
Hogberg

I think these two could get us to a .905 sv%, and anything more is gravy.

I agree ... I like the lines and I hope we see them. I still think Brown or possibly Norris start in the AHL and White gets a shot at 1-2C.

I find it funny we are hoping our two highest paid forwards may replace Ennis’s 15 goals who we plucked off the replacement level scrap heap.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

[mod]
We don’t, and don’t need to, agree on player eval... I’ll keep mine thanks, you can keep yours.

You mentioned a model . I asked for it. How did you leap to player evaluations?

 

[Micklebot]

I agree ... I like the lines and I hope we see them. I still think Brown or possibly Norris start in the AHL and White gets a shot at 1-2C.

I find it funny we are hoping our two highest paid forwards may replace Ennis’s 15 goals who we plucked off the replacement level scrap heap.

To be fair, Ennis wildly outproduced. Expections imo, not sure you can reliably reproduce that.

 

[Sweatred]

To be fair, Ennis wildly outproduced. Expections imo, not sure you can reliably reproduce that.

Not sure about wildly ... he had 2 less goals with DJ the year before in Toronto with (I assume) much less opportunistic ice time and 10 less games. He basically replicated his 18-19 season. He is a 30 year old, 3 time 20+ goal scorer.

 

[Micklebot]

Not sure about wildly ... he had 2 less goals with DJ the year before in Toronto with (I assume) much less opportunistic ice time and 10 less games. He basically replicated his 18-19 season. He is a 30 year old, 3 time 20+ goal scorer.

He had almost half the points. Anyways, doesn't really matter. Ryan should be able to replace his production pretty easily

 

[NyQuil]

Improvement isn’t necessarily linear.

I think a lot of teams will take us lightly at first, and that’s to our benefit.

If we do start to become more competitive, we might see fewer back-up goalies and stronger opposition.

Meanwhile, we have a lot of talented youth but they can’t all play at the same time.

Making the playoffs and making the playoffs regularly are two different objectives.

I think we have a shot within 2 years to sneak in, but that doesn’t guarantee that we won’t be out of the bubble for awhile. Injuries, slumps, bad goaltending could drop us back into the lottery.

4-5 years before we can “expect” to make the playoffs.

 

[aragorn]

Improve the goaltending & the defence & that should improve the special teams & reduce goals against. The goals for will get better as the young players mature & get use to the NHL speed & grind & playing better as a team improves confidence.

1. Goaltending has been a weakness for this team for decades, some of their goalies have had decent seasons only to melt down at playoff time. I'm still not sure that either Nilsson or Hogberg can provide top notch goaltending, nor anyone else in their system, but I have more faith in Hogberg than Nilsson. Askarov could provide that in maybe 3 to 5 yrs, but he's probably not going to fall in their range unless he drops to 21. They are going to need one of the goalies in their system to step up & play way above their pay scale.

2. Ottawa's defence sucks & a few of the D they have in their system that they are depending on won't cut it IMO. They need to improve that this draft & they have an opportunity with the number of draft picks they have. Hopefully the scouts are looking at what they need & should draft too. Their defence is too small, too weak & too slow at making decisions with the puck especially when they are being hounded.

3. The strength of this org IMO is at forward where they seem to be building a big heavy team, at least they have some of those pieces in their org. They should be able to add two elite forwards in this draft along with some pretty decent depth. IMO they have in the making two good forward lines in the org already & the personnel to put together a good 4th line. Hopefully, they will be able to add another top six line in this coming draft.

4. Coaching, GM & Ownership - while ownership can have a positive effect on a team, this owner has shown that he can also have a very negative effect on this team & we need to see & hear a lot less from him in the next few seasons. This GM is infuriating at times, but occasionally makes some good moves, even a blind squirrel finds a nut now & then. I have all kinds of bad feelings knowing that the future of this franchise rests with him. I like what we saw from Smith & company last season & we can only hope that continues, but we have seen this movie before with coaches in Ottawa.

 

[Micklebot]

We talk about how you can't have too many rookies on the roster at the same time, so I figured I'd go through and list off how much NHL experience they actually have;

Balcers: 51 games played
Batherson: 43 games played
Brown: 29 games played
Formenton: 10 games played
Norris: 3 games played
Paul: 112 games played

Brannstrom: 33 games played
Wolanin: 43 games played

A lot of these guys already have half a season or so worth of NHL games under their belt, which lends itself well to us integrating them more quickly imo. Norris and Formenton are the two that have the least NHL experience, but both seem to play a pretty mature game, so their transition could be pretty smooth as well.

I'm not saying we can throw them all in at the same time, but I think their integration into the roster will go quicker than one might expect.