Silver Seven Weekly Question: When will the Senators return to the playoffs?

DrakeAndJosh

Intangibles
Jun 19, 2010
11,863
1,781
Kanata
Trying to think of the biggest FA players we have signed who were at the peak of their career ?

Gonchar may be the highest profile skater and he was at the end of his career.
Top 10 Free Agent Signings in Sens History

It’s a lame list. Our future will have to be through the draft or trades. No one willingly moves to Ottberia.

Finding another MacArthur would be absolutely huge. I’ll never understand how he was so underrated before coming here.
 

Upgrayedd

Earn'em and Burn'em
Oct 14, 2010
5,306
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Ottawa
Without a change in ownership, imo, I could see them having a 1 or 2 year window to try and squeak into the playoffs in 3 or 4 years from now, if the stars align of course.
 
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JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
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Seravelli posted an article today on TSN auditing his 31 predictions for 31 teams

His prediction for Ottawa was jot finishing last and he had this to say

Editor’s Note: Admittedly, the bar wasn’t exactly high here, not with Steve Yzerman’s long-term plan that has a few years to run in Detroit. But these Sens were a scrappy, competitive bunch – one that could be back in the playoff mix as soon as next season. Ottawa has arguably the deepest prospect pool in hockey and it’s about to get a lot better with two top-five picks in the Draft – and maybe even Alexis Lafreniere.
 

bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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With how bad the team is right now and unless we get really lucky with the current lottery, I don’t see playoffs as like for at least another 2 seasons. Major questions marks everywhere and a lack of high end skill.

I also don’t know that making the playoffs would be the best result next season, we could probably do with another high draft pick. Who knows how it’ll turn out though, at least the team will be interesting to watch
Agree 100 percent they still have atleast 1 probably 2 lean years coming up. Before they start to really push. If they get Lafreniere i could see a playoff push in 2021-2022 if not i dont see it happening at the earliest 2022-2023. They don't have the star scoring talent to be a playoff team right now.
 

Nac Mac Feegle

wee & free
Jun 10, 2011
34,828
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At least 4 years. I also expect to see a backstep next season when the new coach effect is gone. There is just too many questions with this team. No elite setup man, no real trigger man at forward, blueline is very weak and relying on kids is a massive risk, and we have no idea what the goaltending will be like.

Even getting first overall this year...one player isn't going to catapult us up the standings. Laf is a really nice player, but he isn't a Crosby or McDavid....and even those guys needed a lot of help and time to drag their teams forward.
 
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MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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I am an optimist .. you are right it could be longer

If we want our prospects and young emerging players to develop to close to what they can be we are going to have to show more patience than DJ did this year and focus on that development vs setting Connor Brown up for a career year as an example. That may not apply as much to lottery picks who should be able to grab the bull by the horns earlier , If we get Lafreniere , great that's one player that may be 2 years from making a net positive impact. 3 years isn't too long . These guys will need to get us there not support getting us there.

I see what you did there. Very tricky...

It will depend what happens this summer. If we can get Lafreniere and add a player like Sergachev then we could be in the playoffs by 2021/'22 and contending by the following season.

If we draft a couple players who are further away from ready, and fail to capitalize on our wealth of assets to make a splash via trade, then it will take longer.
 

Alf Silfversson

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Jun 8, 2011
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2022 playoffs.

They'll struggle but show promise next year. By 2021-22 Chabot will be prime, a goaltending prospect will have emerged as at least a decent starter and Batherson, Norris, Formenton and all of our other young players will be coming into their own. Tkachuk should be a 60 point guy that season. Add in a Stutzle or a Byfield starting to become impact players and I think they make in two years.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,703
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Montreal, Canada
Assuming this pandemic stuff let's us get back on track, I'm thinking 3-4 years before we make a push to get in. It also wouldn't surprise me if we enter into a decade of darkness type scenario a la the Oilers.

3-4 years before making a push to make the playoffs? In today's NHL, things turn over much faster. Sens have already been tanking for 3 seasons now.

Colorado Avalanche

2016–17 : 48 pts
2017–18 : 95 pts

Yes the Avs already had McKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog but they didn't have much else (outside of Duchene but the only "player" that trade producted so far is Girard), not even a good prospect pool. The Sens pool is a LOT better at the moment than what the Avs had.

Chabot, Tkachuk, Batherson, Norris, Duclair, Brown x 2, Formenton, Balcers, White, Wolanin, Brannstrom, JBD, Thomson, etc already a lot of good to great young pieces. Like we were saying before the pandemic, it's very hard to answer such question BEFORE the draft, a very very solid draft where the Sens hold 2 top-6 picks and another mid-round first...

So I don't see the scenario you describe happen, unless the Senators suddenly don't know how to draft, but the quality already in the system and how they are positioned in this upcoming draft suggests otherwise. It's up to them to not screw up.

The teams that can't ever seen to progress are the ones that are not very good at drafting.

Melnyk could find a way to screw up everything though. You need a lot of money to run a NHL franchise and the Sens
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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Athletic Sens Fan survey
upload_2020-4-26_18-55-27.png


Lots of optimists. (3 years is optimistic . 4 to be safe) 2 :skeptic:
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,703
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Lots of optimists. (3 years is optimistic . 4 to be safe) 2 :skeptic:

I really don't see what is optimistic about this.

If they haven't won a series by 2023, it would be a MAJOR FAIL.

It's not like they started from scratch.

Dorion had Zibanejad, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Pageau, Dzingel all in their primes as well as young guys like Chabot, Wolanin and White, etc coming up.

They turned these very valuable assets into futures. So there has been 3 years the team is at the bottom, cumulating even more futures and in this draft, they get TWO top-6 picks... plus another mid first and several 2nd

2021 : would be great achievement
2022 : would be good achievement
2023 : would be expected achievement at least
2024 : if they haven't won by now, they need a very deep run to redeem themselves and to make this rebuild succesful. Chabot is going to be 27 years old that season...

So they better win a round by 2023-24. We don't want to be the Leafs.
 
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Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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I really don't see what is optimistic about this.

If they haven't won a series by 2023, it would be a MAJOR FAIL.

It's not like they started from scratch.

Dorion had Zibanejad, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Pageau, Dzingel all in their primes as well as young guys like Chabot, Wolanin and White, etc coming up.

They turned these very valuable assets into futures. So there has been 3 years the team is at the bottom, cumulating even more futures and in this draft, they get TWO top-6 picks... plus another mid first and several 2nd

2021 : would be great achievement
2022 : would be good achievement
2023 : would be expected achievement at least
2024 : if they haven't won by now, they need a very deep run to redeem themselves and to make this rebuild succesful. Chabot is going to be 27 years old that season...

So they better win a round by 2023-24. We don't want to be the Leafs.

So its 2020 now... 1 year 2021, 2 years 2022, 3 years 2023 ... IMO 1 year is fantasy, 2 years is very hopeful, 3 years if everything aligns, 4 years if y3 hickups
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
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So its 2020 now... 1 year 2021, 2 years 2022, 3 years 2023 ... IMO 1 year is fantasy, 2 years is very hopeful, 3 years if everything aligns, 4 years if y3 hickups

Yeah but what I'm saying is that considering the assets they started with and that it's been already 3 years that they finish bottom-3, it would be a major fail if it takes another 4 year to win a single playoff round.

If you start from scratch, ok I can live with "7 years at least until we win a round" but that's really not the case. By year 1 of the rebuild, they already had Chabot, Tkachuk, White, Batherson, Wolanin, Formenton, etc and several proven stars with significant VALUE (Zibanejad, Stone, Karlsson, Turris, Hoffman) as well as some support players who had good value (Dzingel, Pageau, even Ceci). They traded those guys for bazillion picks (some quite high) and prospects so if they can't build a good team fast, they are failing at their job.

Basically, if it needs "everything needs to align" in 3 years, you can consider the rebuid a failure already. It would take a new owner and new management to prove that Ottawa can actually compete in this league.

When you think of it, the Habs and Leafs are truly pathetic.

I'm not expecting much for 2020-21, just to see a progression and young players "arrive", setting up the table to compete in 2021-22. Have to make the playoffs in 2022-23 or at least be very close. If that's not the case, again you can start thinking the rebuild is a failure.
 

MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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So its 2020 now... 1 year 2021, 2 years 2022, 3 years 2023 ... IMO 1 year is fantasy, 2 years is very hopeful, 3 years if everything aligns, 4 years if y3 hickups

And this is the difference between drafting a bunch of players like Perfetti, Byfield, Raymond, Jarvis, Askarov, who are a ways away from being impact NHLers, vs. drafting guys like Lafreniere, Lundell, Sanderson, Mercer who are probably very close to NHL-ready. I'd say 2021/'22 is a little bit hopeful, but that will be Chabot's 5th and Tkachuk's 4th full season, Brannstrom, Batherson, Balcers, Norris' 2nd full season. I dunno, I fully expect and hope for another shitster next year, but I think they should be able to at least be making a strong push by 2021/'22.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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And this is the difference between drafting a bunch of players like Perfetti, Byfield, Raymond, Jarvis, Askarov, who are a ways away from being impact NHLers, vs. drafting guys like Lafreniere, Lundell, Sanderson, Mercer who are probably very close to NHL-ready. I'd say 2021/'22 is a little bit hopeful, but that will be Chabot's 5th and Tkachuk's 4th full season, Brannstrom, Batherson, Balcers, Norris' 2nd full season. I dunno, I fully expect and hope for another shitster next year, but I think they should be able to at least be making a strong push by 2021/'22.
I still think you are being hopeful on more than Lafreniere being able to make any kind of impact , let alone make the team within 2 years. So I am not convinced.
 

MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
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I still think you are being hopeful on more than Lafreniere being able to make any kind of impact , let alone make the team within 2 years. So I am not convinced.

Yeah you're right. As I've talked about, my hope is contingent on the Sens making at least one big trade acquisition; in the scenario I worked out I have us adding both Sergachev and Robert Thomas through trade, by packaging a bunch of top prospects. If the Sens are overly cautious and fail to make a key trade or two, then sure, the rebuild may take a year or two longer than I'm hoping it will.

Maybe I'm on-board with the Melnyk haters then. Point is if the funds and opportunities are available, we have the assets and cap space to make a real push to accelerate this rebuild.
 

Sensung

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Oct 3, 2017
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Maybe I'm on-board with the Melnyk haters then. Point is if the funds and opportunities are available, we have the assets and cap space to make a real push to accelerate this rebuild.
We'll be waiting for you with open arms and only a couple of "I told you so's". ;)
 

bert

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So its 2020 now... 1 year 2021, 2 years 2022, 3 years 2023 ... IMO 1 year is fantasy, 2 years is very hopeful, 3 years if everything aligns, 4 years if y3 hickups
Agreed, players need to develop they dont have the top end skill right now its not even close.
 

Sensung

Registered User
Oct 3, 2017
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Agreed, players need to develop they dont have the top end skill right now its not even close.
And by the time it develops, it will be time for Eugene to pay up as most of the roster will be post ELC.

If Eugene sells, the picture improves. Until then, we will continue to be a farm team for the league.
 

guyzeur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2009
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We have never been able to attract good free agents and we have built successful teams before. At most we may pick off a few players sacrificed by their club without NMC’s like Serg or Nylander and in the end it will probably be the “B or C” versions of those guys.
Sweatred, Although improbable you have to admit that there is a possibility that we can make the playoffs with the same team.
 

guyzeur

Registered User
Mar 25, 2009
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614
Ottawa
I agree with this accept for the end piece. If we sign of all our decent players that will be the equivalent of over paying on EK and MD type contracts that will have years of negative value and long non competitive cycles where we can’t buy our way out.

EK and MD types were worth more traded for their assets and keeping payroll flexibility. MD could almost be had for cap relief at this point.

I hope we continue to do that with our future stars. The main idea would be to put the best team of 23-29 year olds on the ice and recycle the UFA’s at the peak of their value. Fans would struggle but look how quickly the EK deal has turned. If we did it well we should be able to keep a competitive team in the ice and the prospect cupboard stocked like it currently is (after 2020 draft).
Fans and players will struggle with this way of managing a team: Sens will have a worst reputation than now if you never keep you're players more than 6, 7 years.
 

Sweatred

Erase me
Jan 28, 2019
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Sweatred, Although improbable you have to admit that there is a possibility that we can make the playoffs with the same team.

Oh for sure. Anaheim is on the verge of a playoff birth this year. I guess I really meant consistently compete in the playoffs.
 

MatchesMalone

Formerly Innocent Bystander
Aug 29, 2010
1,612
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We'll be waiting for you with open arms and only a couple of "I told you so's". ;)

Oh you badly misunderstood me. It's not that I don't think he's a shitty person. I just don't care enough to make him the focal point of my thinking about the Sens. I just meant that while some folks like to make everything about Melnyk ad nauseam, in this particular case they would be especially justified.
 

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