Weaponized cap space?

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

LOL, nobody wants Erne or Biega, they'd both clear waivers. Biega has already.

In a budget constrained year, you don't sign waiver fodder to one way contracts before free agency starts. No matter how small their salary is, it's still a Kenny Holland move to outbid yourself early.

If teams wanted cheap players, they're a whole list of players that haven't found a home yet in free agency. I think there will be a few that will have to sign ridiculously underpaid deals. I'm hoping the WIngs will snag one or two of them, considering Timashov doesn;t appear to want to come back.

You're probably right, but I can see Erne get traded. Biega is fodder, agreed.

 

[Gniwder]

You're probably right, but I can see Erne get traded. Biega is fodder, agreed.

Erne has less value than last year, and Stevie got him for a 4th. Not to mention that he wasn't offered a QO, so any team could have signed him.

Really doubt he has any trade value at all, and considering what's still available in free agency, he would more than likely clear waivers.

We are the worst team in the league, nobody wants our worst players. Right now they are Biega, Erne, Nielsen, Staal in that order. Nobody is looking for warm bodies either, when the league is losing money.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Erne has less value than last year, and Stevie got him for a 4th. Not to mention that he wasn't offered a QO, so any team could have signed him.

Really doubt he has any trade value at all, and considering what's still available in free agency, he would more than likely clear waivers.

We are the worst team in the league, nobody wants our worst players. Right now they are Biega, Erne, Nielsen, Staal in that order. Nobody is looking for warm bodies either, when the league is losing money.

So when a team has 18-21 players signed & are at the cap, those $997k Erne's have no value?

 

[Gniwder]

To Tampa
Namestnikov
To Detroit
Tyler Johnson and a first

Do you honestly think Chris would buy a late first round pick for $20M?

The only way the WIngs trade with them is if there is a young long term asset coming to us. Cirelli or Serg, otherwise it's not even worth discussing. All of the other players except Point (obviously not tradeable) are too old for the rebuild.

 

[Gniwder]

So when a team has 18-21 players signed & are at the cap, those $997k Erne's have no value?

Absolutely none. Sign AA or Duclair for league min ($750k).

There are a ton of unsigned forwards:
2020 NHL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

Also, I think we're going to see at least one team run with 20 man roster until someone gets injured.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Absolutely none. Sign AA or Duclair for league min ($750k).

There are a ton of unsigned forwards:
2020 NHL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

Also, I think we're going to see at least one team run with 20 man roster until someone gets injured.

I'm talking about later in the season or at TDL, when the Duclair's & AA's of the NHL are likely already playing/signed, here or in Europe/KHL.

 

[Winger98]

Do you honestly think Chris would buy a late first round pick for $20M?

The only way the WIngs trade with them is if there is a young long term asset coming to us. Cirelli or Serg, otherwise it's not even worth discussing. All of the other players except Point (obviously not tradeable) are too old for the rebuild.

You stole my bit!

 

[Gniwder]

I'm talking about later in the season or at TDL, when the Duclair's & AA's of the NHL are likely already playing/signed, here or in Europe/KHL.

No, they'd be asking for Helm or LGD with 50% retention.

Also keep in mind most teams have prospects that are better than Erne. Maybe if he was better defensively.... but he's not very good on either end of the ice.

 

[Gniwder]

You stole my bit!

LOL. I have to keep reminding everyone that it's a business involving real money. The way Chris is probably looking at it is "Does the $20M spent bring in at least $20M in revenue?"

The ROI on a late first isn't $20M unless the team gets lucky and picks the next John Carlson. The probabilities are low, so Chris won't do it.

 

[Winger98]

LOL. I have to keep reminding everyone that it's a business involving real money. The way Chris is probably looking at it is "Does the $20M spent bring in at least $20M in revenue?"

The ROI on a late first isn't $20M unless the team gets lucky and picks the next John Carlson. The probabilities are low, so Chris won't do it.

Looking at ESPN, the Wings filled Little Caesars to over 95% capacity this past season, or at least sold that many tickets regardless of how many people actually showed up. Get a little better and they can probably start routinely selling those last 5% of tickets, but the only way they can really make money is to be a playoff team. Or better TV deals.

I think there is an argument that bringing in an immediate upgrade at center in Johnson and getting a 1st is a risk worth taking - especially with the lack of quality options at 2C the next couple of years. But I agree that Ilitch isn't going to spend. I just disagree that it's a certainty he'll start spending at any point.

edit: I'd also point out that what really pushed the franchise values of the Wings and the Tigers is Chris' dad opening the wallet and spending to put big teams on the ice/field.

 

[Gniwder]

Looking at ESPN, the Wings filled Little Caesars to over 95% capacity this past season, or at least sold that many tickets regardless of how many people actually showed up. Get a little better and they can probably start routinely selling those last 5% of tickets, but the only way they can really make money is to be a playoff team. Or better TV deals.

I think there is an argument that bringing in an immediate upgrade at center in Johnson and getting a 1st is a risk worth taking - especially with the lack of quality options at 2C the next couple of years. But I agree that Ilitch isn't going to spend. I just disagree that it's a certainty he'll start spending at any point.

edit: I'd also point out that what really pushed the franchise values of the Wings and the Tigers is Chris' dad opening the wallet and spending to put big teams on the ice/field.

He will have to open up the wallet in order to maintain that 95% capacity. I know for a certain fact that a lot of those seats are owned by corporations (such as automotive suppliers) that give them away to their customers. If their customers decide that the WIngs aren't worth watching, then those corporations will stop buying season tickets.

Who do you think was buying up all those seats and not attending? It's not sustainable.

So eventually he has to spend. But as far as a rebuild, TJ is too old, and money would be better off spent chasing after a top tier UFA after we get a better foundation. First pair D and a 1 or 2C next two drafts and this team is at least a low end playoff team.

 

[Winger98]

He will have to open up the wallet in order to maintain that 95% capacity. I know for a certain fact that a lot of those seats are owned by corporations (such as automotive suppliers) that give them away to their customers. If their customers decide that the WIngs aren't worth watching, then those corporations will stop buying season tickets.

Who do you think was buying up all those seats and not attending? It's not sustainable.

So eventually he has to spend. But as far as a rebuild, TJ is too old, and money would be better off spent chasing after a top tier UFA after we get a better foundation. First pair D and a 1 or 2C next two drafts and this team is at least a low end playoff team.

If we're talking about spending more than the floor, yeah, I agree. He'll have to spend more than that and the nature of the floor/ceiling structure helps encourage more spending. If we're talking about spending to the ceiling on a regular basis? Eh...

I'm expecting something closer to Nashville than Toronto, with the same sort of attention paid to salary structure than necessarily to winning.

I also don't buy a two year timeline for returning to the playoffs unless we dip heartily into free agency. we might draft some good players in the next two years, but they aren't going to step in and push this team to the playoffs. They'll likely be a year or two out from the NHL at all, then have a year or two of cutting their teeth, and then maybe they can be counted on.

If Ilitch was really worried about that 95% number shrinking he would have dipped into the petty cash this offseason.

 

[Henkka]

Do you honestly think Chris would buy a late first round pick for $20M?

The only way the WIngs trade with them is if there is a young long term asset coming to us. Cirelli or Serg, otherwise it's not even worth discussing. All of the other players except Point (obviously not tradeable) are too old for the rebuild.

You can get an asset and then re-trade him. After next season, there's only modified NTC that doesn't really protect him at all after that. And very probably he is the guy going to Seattle, if we get him.

Thank god Yzerman is more innovative, than you people who think that getting Tyler Johnson means that he is a LOCK for Red Wings for the rest of the contract.

BE creative. Trade and re-trade. NHL GM world is full of options.

BTW, Johnson has 3.75M salary for this 2020-21 season. So if he plays that at Wings and then is gone, the price for 1st rounder was lees than 4.6M valued Marleau buyout. And he plays actually 1 season, not just exist as dead money.

 

[odin1981]

He will have to open up the wallet in order to maintain that 95% capacity. I know for a certain fact that a lot of those seats are owned by corporations (such as automotive suppliers) that give them away to their customers. If their customers decide that the WIngs aren't worth watching, then those corporations will stop buying season tickets.

Who do you think was buying up all those seats and not attending? It's not sustainable.

So eventually he has to spend. But as far as a rebuild, TJ is too old, and money would be better off spent chasing after a top tier UFA after we get a better foundation. First pair D and a 1 or 2C next two drafts and this team is at least a low end playoff team.

Yeah, my Dad use to take me and one of my brothers to 1-2 game's a year because of his company before he retired last year because of this. His company had a season ticket pass on some pretty good seats. They where mainly used for business accounts with new clients or loyal client's. Often times they wouldn't get used and that's why he would get 1-2 games a year. That's why often time's the lower bowl seat's aren't used. The tickets are bought and paid for but the businesses can't always find takers for them.

 

[Retire91]

I don't think we are going to see cap space trades until some certainty comes back in the schedule, I also have my doubts about this strategy now after the Abby buyout. It looks like Chris is a penny pincher and won't be the spender his dad was so I doubt he adds salary for a pick if he was willing to add penalty cap into our best case contention years just to save a few million on Abby. Money was almost a non issue with Mike Illich, I think Chris looks at this more like a business and with Mike it was more pride and emotional.

 

[Gniwder]

I don't think we are going to see cap space trades until some certainty comes back in the schedule, I also have my doubts about this strategy now after the Abby buyout. It looks like Chris is a penny pincher and won't be the spender his dad was so I doubt he adds salary for a pick if he was willing to add penalty cap into our best case contention years just to save a few million on Abby. Money was almost a non issue with Mike Illich, I think Chris looks at this more like a business and with Mike it was more pride and emotional.

Mike was an old man who knew he was dying. My dad who had multiple cancers asked me if he should buy a BMW X5 before he died, and I told him "Yes, you can't take the money with you anyways." Mike knew the money wasn't gonna help him when he's dead, he just wanted to watch the team win before he died. Chris is a long way away from dying.

The morale of the story is that I now own a BMW X5, lol.

 

[MBH]

Do you honestly think Chris would buy a late first round pick for $20M?

The only way the WIngs trade with them is if there is a young long term asset coming to us. Cirelli or Serg, otherwise it's not even worth discussing. All of the other players except Point (obviously not tradeable) are too old for the rebuild.

A few points:
1) Detroit actually has a use for a center for the next 3-4 years.
2) Johnson, in 14 1/2 minutes a night, was tracking for 18G 21A 39Pts.
You bump him up to 18 minutes a night with Zadina/Fabbri, and now he's probably playing at 23-26-49 pace.
3) Over the last 4 years, he's won 50.5 percent of his faceoffs.
4) He's 30. He'd start his last year at 34 years old. Nielsen was 32 when he began his 6 year deal that takes him to 38. His cap hit is also less than Nielsen's. And Nielsen didn't give us a first round pick for the trouble.

People were just fine taking Staal - who's been useless for the NYR - and will probably get exposed as badly as Ericsson did in Detroit - and getting a 2nd rounder.
And yeah, there's a chance that there might only be 4-5 places between Tampa and the Rangers pick. There's also chance that there are 20-30 places between them.

But the key difference here is that Tyler Johnson is still a good hockey player who can play 2C, play the powerplay and kill penalties.

The last time the Red Wings drafted near the bottom of Round One we drafted Joe Veleno.

 

[Gniwder]

Yeah, my Dad use to take me and one of my brothers to 1-2 game's a year because of his company before he retired last year because of this. His company had a season ticket pass on some pretty good seats. They where mainly used for business accounts with new clients or loyal client's. Often times they wouldn't get used and that's why he would get 1-2 games a year. That's why often time's the lower bowl seat's aren't used. The tickets are bought and paid for but the businesses can't always find takers for them.

Yes, that was my point. And if nobody wants the tickets then they stop buying season tickets because it's wasted expense. The empty seats tell the story.

I think Stevie understands the business aspect of it, and I know for sure that Chris does. He's grown into the team, he's not a newbie. I think that's why they went into maintenance mode and bought the cheap talent to make this team more watchable.

The only question in my mind is if they start spending next offseason or wait until 2022. I think there's a risk of losing season ticket holders if they don't start spending next offseason, at the same time I'd like to see one more tank year to get the 1C we really need. No doubt in my mind that Chris starts spending in 2022 at the latest. Season ticket holders will only endure so much suckiness before cutting bait.

 

[Gniwder]

A few points:
1) Detroit actually has a use for a center for the next 3-4 years.
2) Johnson, in 14 1/2 minutes a night, was tracking for 18G 21A 39Pts.
You bump him up to 18 minutes a night with Zadina/Fabbri, and now he's probably playing at 23-26-49 pace.
3) Over the last 4 years, he's won 50.5 percent of his faceoffs.
4) He's 30. He'd start his last year at 34 years old. Nielsen was 32 when he began his 6 year deal that takes him to 38. His cap hit is also less than Nielsen's. And Nielsen didn't give us a first round pick for the trouble.

People were just fine taking Staal - who's been useless for the NYR - and will probably get exposed as badly as Ericsson did in Detroit - and getting a 2nd rounder.
And yeah, there's a chance that there might only be 4-5 places between Tampa and the Rangers pick. There's also chance that there are 20-30 places between them.

But the key difference here is that Tyler Johnson is still a good hockey player who can play 2C, play the powerplay and kill penalties.

The last time the Red Wings drafted near the bottom of Round One we drafted Joe Veleno.

1) How much better is TJ than Fabbri? I think trying out Fabbri at 2C makes more sense.
2) He's still only 5' tall, and that's not the type of player you want logging big minutes
3) 50.5% is only 0.5% above average
4) His numbers are already declining. Nielsen's deal has nothing to do with any future deals. You don't look at Holland's mistakes and make a deal just because it isn't as big of a f-up.

Staal cost $3.2M salary this season and the team needed a bottom pair D, which would probably have cost around $1.2M on open market. So basically they bought a mid 2nd for $2M. That beats a bottom first for $20M commitment.

Veleno is a good example, do you pay $20M for the chance to draft him? I wouldn't. And I will bet money that Chris won't either. We're not even sure if he's 2C, 3C or 4C yet.

 

[Ricelund]

From Duhatschek:

The obvious first landing place for any of Tampa’s salary-cap headaches is Detroit, run by Steve Yzerman, the former Lightning GM, and the manager responsible for many of the contracts currently on Tampa’s books. For those who don’t follow it closely, Tampa has three middle of the lineup forwards with no-trade clauses (Ondrej Palat, Yanni Gourde and Tyler Johnson) and a fourth, Alex Killorn, with a modified no-trade. Of the four, the Lightning presumably value Palat the most. Truthfully, all four are probably overpaid for what they’re producing, which becomes a greater issue in a flat cap world. I see Palat as a likely survivor of the salary-cap purge to come. Johnson is 30, has four years left at $5 million and was waived earlier this year (and there were no takers). So, you’ll need both a sweetener to move his contract and permission from the players’ camp. Complicated, but not impossible.

In a perfect world, I would try to move not just one, but two of the remaining contract headaches (preferably Johnson and Killorn) to Detroit, and be prepared to surrender both a first-round pick and a quality young player to get the Red Wings to bite. Detroit would probably jump on that deal if that quality young player were Cernak, who is highly valued around the NHL. Tampa obviously wouldn’t want to pay that high a price. Sometimes, as an organization, you’re trapped and have to make hard choices. By solving all your financial problems in one fell swoop, you take your medicine, but you also create the necessary flexibility to operate with a little breathing room, as you pursue a Stanley Cup defence.

So, to Jeffrey M’s specific question, no, I can’t see them getting any players – or any value — in return for the players they’re off-loading. The problem for BriseBois is partly the times he’s living in. This offseason, every team was shopping for contractual bargains. The type of players BriseBoios has on offer were available on the free-agent market for a fraction of the cost. At some point, he’ll have to conjure up his own version of Marc Staal-to-the Red Wings for a second-round pick; only it’ll cost a lot more than that to extricate himself from this particular payroll jam.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

If TBL could move two pieces for a late 1st, I would think that deal would be done by now. $10M+ for any 2 of Palat (2yrs)/TJ (4)/Gourde (5). $4.45M for Killorn (3yrs)...I'd maybe do Palat & Killorn for 2 1sts & Cernak, both could be decent trade chips w/retention but neither play C...However 2 late 1sts (for TWO) doesn't seem like enough/fair payment to me personally, at least not in this climate...ideally we purge Cirelli

Ott is too cheap (Melnyk), NJ/LA are likely the only other teams besides us to be a fit for Two casualties.

4&5 yrs @ $5 & $5+ for a late 1st, LMAO.

JBB is playing a game of chicken, all GM's know this.

If I'm Yzerman & JBB (& his shiny new Cup Ring & memories) only has 1-2 options at best, I demand Cirelli + late 1st + (TJ or Gourde), or GTFOH. Take it or leave it. Maybe I'm nice & give 'em Hirose & LGD w/retention. I'm not whoring out the Red Wings for table scraps & setting a bad precedent/establishing a sellers mkt.


...If you think "that's too much to ask/demand". Cirelli is worth 2 late 1sts at the Most, so an addl. late 1st for 4/5 yrs @ $5M is a great deal for TBL.

 

[Retire91]

I am growing tired of the revolving door of mediocre centers going back to Richards, Weiss, Filpulla, Neilson etc... I just hope if we are taking on another mediocre center the return is worth it. I would love to see our cap space leveraged but really hope its for something that is going to move the dial.

 

[Gniwder]

If TBL could move two pieces for a late 1st, I would think that deal would be done by now. $10M+ for any 2 of Palat (2yrs)/TJ (4)/Gourde (5). $4.45M for Killorn (3yrs)...I'd maybe do Palat & Killorn for 2 1sts & Cernak, both could be decent trade chips w/retention but neither play C...However 2 late 1sts (for TWO) doesn't seem like enough/fair payment to me personally, at least not in this climate...ideally we purge Cirelli

Ott is too cheap (Melnyk), NJ is likely the only other team besides us to be a fit for Two casualties.

4&5 yrs @ $5 & $5+ for a late 1st, LMAO.

JBB is playing a game of chicken, all GM's know this.

If I'm Yzerman & JBB (& his shiny new Cup Ring & memories) only has 1-2 options at best, I demand Cirelli + late 1st + (TJ or Gourde), or GTFOH. Take it or leave it. Maybe I'm nice & give 'em Hirose & LGD w/retention. I'm not whoring out the Red Wings for table scraps & setting a bad precedent/establishing a sellers mkt.


...If you think "that's too much to ask/demand". Cirelli is worth 2 late 1sts at the Most, so an addl. late 1st for 4/5 yrs @ $5M is a great deal for TBL.

Well, at least we're getting closer. Any deal to eat salary has to include one of Cirelli, Cernak, or Serg. Nobody is going to eat $20+M of real money for draft picks.

Eating $3.2M gave us a middle 2nd, what does eating $20M get us? At least 6 2nd round picks, right? Stevie has already set his price, lol.

Funny thing is, that still doesn't solve their problem, they still need to get rid of one more contract. I still think they will have to trade at least one marketable asset, Cirelli, Cernak, or Serg. It may cost them 2 in order to get under the cap.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Try $40M+, not $20M as you stated @Gniwder unless you're referring to just 1 player.

Imho, Cernak + late 1st isn't enough for Two, maybe not even for 1 player (TJ/Gourde). They're not trading Serg., so the logical middleground is Cirelli + 1st(s).

EDIT: (add)
Economic laws don't change, a finite amount is still a finite amount. (cap space, willing & able trade partners, needs of said partner(s) etc.).

Stevie hasn't "set his price, lol". Just b/c he bailed out the NYR for a minimal amt. doesn't mean he's gonna do the same...I have spent 25+ yrs negotiating with companies & business owners of all types/demographics nationally & globally...your 1-track lgoic isn't how this works.

 

[Henkka]

- Cernak is not going anywhere.
- Cirelli is not going anywhere.
- Sergachev is not going anywhere

These all have been the time pipe dreams for fans.

It's Killorn, Johnson, Paquette/Coburn who will move.

Freaking out because of the cap is just time wasting. There's no problems, just options.

Fans see the problems, GMs see the options and solutions.