Weaponized cap space?

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

- Cernak is not going anywhere.
- Cirelli is not going anywhere.
- Sergachev is not going anywhere

These all have been the time pipe dreams for fans.

It's Killorn, Johnson, Paquette/Coburn who will move.

Freaking out because of the cap is just time wasting. There's no problems, just options.

Fans see the problems, GMs see the options and solutions.

Apparently Duhatschek (sp?) among other media members also see one of: Cernak, Cirelli, Serg., having to be moved, so it's not only the fans, but those within the industry. Only time will tell. My guess is, it's Cernak+1st at minimum or two 1sts value. Possibly Cirelli (long-shot). Serg.stays.

 

[Henkka]

Apparently Duhatschek (sp?) among other media members also see one of: Cernak, Cirelli, Serg., having to be moved, so it's not only the fans, but those within the industry. Only time will tell. My guess is, it's Cernak+1st at minimum or two 1sts value. Possibly Cirelli (long-shot). Serg.stays.

Traded or not, if somewhow those RFAs are traded, they will be fair value in hockey trades. Not doom and gloom. Value will transfer to values.

Great players are wanted, and if Tampa makes them available, it will be a competition.

Tampa player core is so great that no matter what trade they will make to shed 9M off from the roster, it's still the best NHL team on paper.

That's the legacy of Yzerman.

Stamkos - Point - Kucherov
Palat - Cirelli - Coleman
Goodrow - Gourde - Volkov/Joseph
Maroon - Paquette/Stephens - Volkov/Joseph
(Stephens, Witkowski)

Killorn and Johnsons let walk.

Hedman - Cernak
McDonagh - Sergachev
Coburn - Foote/Schenn
(Foote/Schenn)

Vasilevskiy
Mac

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Traded or not, if somewhow those RFAs are traded, they will be fair value hockey trades. Not doom and gloom.

Great players are wanted, and if Tampa makes them available, it will be a competition.

Tampa player core is so great that no matter what trade they will make to shed 9M off from the roster, it's still the best NHL team on paper.

That's the legacy of Yzerman.

Only if they're not attached to the "doom & gloom" cap casualties as sweeteners/enticers. A desperate GM trying to save his job and/or one on thin ice/near his expiration date that hasn't made the playoffs in several years may do TB a favor & take TJ + 2 2nds or some crap. I never discount the stupid GM factor in trades & FA.

 

[Henkka]

Only if they're not attached to the "doom & gloom" cap casualties as sweeteners/enticers. A desperate GM trying to save his job and/or one on thin ice/near his expiration date that hasn't made the playoffs in several years may do TB a favor & take TJ + 2 2nds or some crap. I never discount the stupid GM factor in trades & FA.

Think 2 seconds is a pretty good price for.....? ...losing nobody! For a guy who will be gone anyways, maybe in expansion or for extra picks.

More picks! My life is better with those extra picks than not having those 2 seconds. Maybe somebody elses life is better in opposite way.

Think like Yzerman. This is f***ing easy mathematics.

Think. Like. Yzerman.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Think 2 seconds is a pretty good price for.....? ...losing nobody. For a guy who will be gone anyways, maybe in expansion or for extra picks.

More picks! Better than not having those 2 seconds.

Think like Yzerman. This is f***ing easy mathematics.

As @Gniwder eldued to earlier, the ROI isn't good, at all. $20M for 60th OA x 2....sucks!

 

[Gniwder]

Try $40M+, not $20M as you stated @Gniwder unless you're referring to just 1 player.

Imho, Cernak + late 1st isn't enough for Two, maybe not even for 1 player (TJ/Gourde). They're not trading Serg., so the logical middleground is Cirelli + 1st(s).

EDIT: (add)
Economic laws don't change, a finite amount is still a finite amount. (cap space, willing & able trade partners, needs of said partner(s) etc.).

Stevie hasn't "set his price, lol". Just b/c he bailed out the NYR for a minimal amt. doesn't mean he's gonna do the same...I have spent 25+ yrs negotiating with companies & business owners of all types/demographics nationally & globally...your 1-track lgoic isn't how this works.

I was referring to one player at $20M.

By setting the price, I meant that is the minimum return he would expect. $3.2M for mid second rounder. Obviously he can ask for more, but I can assure you that he isn't gonna do $20M for a first rounder, and probably not even for 2 of them because Tampa's 1st rounder is basically the WIngs' second round.

Everyone thinks TJ and Gourde are gonna get traded, and that is definitely not happening without a huge add. Vegas figured it out and dumped Schmidt instead of MAF. (I called that correctly, BTW, they would dump a different player instead of throwing assets to get rid of MAF.)

Likewise Bris will figure out that the add for trading TJ and Gourde will be too much for him to stomach and wind up trading assets in a hockey trade like I mentioned earlier. Sell the RFAs to another team with ELC contracts, look for the best deal. Hence I proposed Hronek & Zadina for Cirelli and Serg plus a 1st. Maybe they get better offers than that, but it's a start.

I don't really see any other way out for them besides a season cancellation, lol.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I was referring to one player at $20M.

By setting the price, I meant that is the minimum return he would expect. $3.2M for mid second rounder. Obviously he can ask for more, but I can assure you that he isn't gonna do $20M for a first rounder, and probably not even for 2 of them because Tampa's 1st rounder is basically the WIngs' second round.

Everyone thinks TJ and Gourde are gonna get traded, and that is definitely not happening without a huge add. Vegas figured it out and dumped Schmidt instead of MAF. (I called that correctly, BTW, they would dump a different player instead of throwing assets to get rid of MAF.)

Likewise Bris will figure out that the add for trading TJ and Gourde will be too much for him to stomach and wind up trading assets in a hockey trade like I mentioned earlier. Sell the RFAs to another team with ELC contracts, look for the best deal. Hence I proposed Hronek & Zadina for Cirelli and Serg plus a 1st. Maybe they get better offers than that, but it's a start.

I don't really see any other way out for them besides a season cancellation, lol.

While the proposed Zadina+Hronek for Serg+Cirelli+1st trade looks like a good win now (to some), it's a lot closer than we think (not including the 1st). Cirelli is already 23.5 & needs to get paid a fair bridge or LT $ offer, or a 4-5ish yr. deal in the middle...Zadina is a lot younger & we only have 1 other sniper on our roster & system. Larks & Ray are playmakers. Also Cirelli had a loaded Cup team, so would he continue to progress lined up with Fabbri & (3rd liner)? Not likely. Hronek played top pair minutes & more importantly situations vs. Serg. who was sheltered by Hedman/McD etc. Pipe dream to get both, but Cirelli +CapCas. shouldn't be out of the realm of quasi-realisitic possibilities.

We can't deplete 2 & add 2 (older & more expensive), it's counter-productive, even if both pieces are a bit better now. Give 'em our 1st + Ras as a base if you want Serg & Cirelli, then add prospects not names Seider/Raymond/Veleno/Johansson/Berggren. Give 'em LGD 50%, and other expendable roster players @ 50% (Nemeth, Helm, Namestnikov, Ryan even if he wants a shot at a Cup). add, if needed: Smith Hirose Brome Cholowski Ask Merrill/Staal/Stech if they want to go to TBL.
Lindstrom-wanna hang onto him if possible. Tuomisto if we had to.

It's a great place to live & work.

 

[Gniwder]

While the proposed Zadina+Hronek for Serg+Cirelli+1st trade looks like a good win now (to some), it's a lot closer than we think (not including the 1st). Cirelli is already 24 & needs to get paid a fair bridge or LT $ offer, or a 5ish yr. deal in the middle...Zadina is a lot younger & we only have 1 other sniper on our roster & system. Larks & Ray are playmakers. Also Cirelli had a loaded Cup team, so would he continue to progress lined up with Fabbri & (3rd liner)? No. Hronek played top pair minutes & more importantly situations vs. Serg. who was sheltered by Hedman/McD etc. Pipe dream to get both, but Cirelli +CapCas. shouldn't be out of the realm of quasi-realisitic possibilities. We can't deplete 2 & add 2 (older & more expensive), it's counter-productive, even if both pieces are a bit better now. Give 'em our 1st + Ras as a base if you want Serg & Cirelli, then add prospects not names Seider/Raymond/Veleno/Johansson. Give 'em LGD 50%, and other expendable roster players @ 50%.

That's the whole point is that it's a close value hockey trade. Other than ZAdina and Hronek, this team has really nothing else to offer.

Work the math on Cirelli plus a cap hit, if Cirelli gets $5M, then the team is basically paying $10M/season for Cirelli and TJ for 4 years. That's actually a terrible deal if you think about it. For that money, I'd rather have Pietra ($8.8M) and a warm body for $1.2M. This is the reason why I said Brise is going to hate the asking price to take on TJ/Gourde.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

That's the whole point is that it's a close value hockey trade. Other than ZAdina and Hronek, this team has really nothing else to offer.

Work the math on Cirelli plus a cap hit, if Cirelli gets $5M, then the team is basically paying $10M/season for Cirelli and TJ for 4 years. That's actually a terrible deal if you think about it. For that money, I'd rather have Pietra ($8.8M) and a warm body for $1.2M. This is the reason why I said Brise is going to hate the asking price to take on TJ/Gourde.

It's Cirelli+TJ+ 1st is what I said, you forgot the 1st.

Also Petro isn't signing here for $10M, much less $8.8, but he's in Vegas, so why bring that up? That's like saying I'd rather have Point+Coleman & save $1M+ instead of Skinner/Hall...well duh, who wouldn't?

I'd happily pay Cirelli $5x5 (til UFA), he's likely worth close to it now, if not more & will be a good/great value soon at that price. TJ, who cares, we have tons of cap, even after that. Trade him @ 25-40% retention & get good picks/prospects back, at that price he's valueable again.

 

[Henkka]

There's big difference for RFAs in 1-2-3 years deals.

Cirelly could go 3-4-5 M based on the term. Cernak too with 2.0-2.5-3.0M.

Tampa will find a way. Sorry for all the doomdayers. It will be pretty easy, and whiners are gonna whine.

It's still Killorn and Johnson who will move. Everybody sane will know it.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

There's big difference for RFAs in 1-2-3 years deals.

Cirelly could go 3-4-5 M based on the term. Cernak too with 2.0-2.5-3.0M.

Tampa will find a way. Sorry for all the doomdayers. It will be pretty easy, and whiners are gonna whine.

It's still Killorn and Johnson who will move. Everybody sane will know it.

9-page thread on the Trade Board, TJ w/$2M retained (40%)/4 yrs...
Value of: - Tyler Johnson 2 mil Retained


Also, "it will be pretty easy"...wth?

Killorn & TJ may be the ones to move, but it won't be easy as you say & they'll likely pay a premium to dump TJ, while getting FC's back.

Gourde will cost slightly less to dump.

Killorn will cost even less to dump, but still cost, maybe he nets a mid-late pick?

Agree to disagree.

Only time will tell.

 

[Winger98]

Just wait for Stamkos to start having setbacks from his surgery and go on LTIR to buy them the required room.

 

[Bench]

Just wait for Stamkos to start having setbacks from his surgery and go on LTIR to buy them the required room.

Damn, that would really suck though. I know they won a Cup without him but he's still one of the best goal scorers in the league. They are worse without him, no question. And I'm not sure they repeat if he's not on the ice.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Damn, that would really suck though. I know they won a Cup without him but he's still one of the best goal scorers in the league. They are worse without him, no question. And I'm not sure they repeat if he's not on the ice.

I think he means LTIR'd just long enough to ice a roster, but Stammer plays in the playoffs & likely a few weeks prior to get up to speed. @ $8.5/yr, he could miss the majority of the season, get rested/100% healed & "make a come back" down the home stretch.

 

[Gniwder]

9-page thread on the Trade Board, TJ w/$2M retained (40%)/4 yrs...
Value of: - Tyler Johnson 2 mil Retained


Also, "it will be pretty easy"...wth?

Killorn & TJ may be the ones to move, but it won't be easy as you say & they'll likely pay a premium to dump TJ, while getting FC's back.

Gourde will cost slightly less to dump.

Killorn will cost even less to dump, but still cost, maybe he nets a mid-late pick?

Agree to disagree.

Only time will tell.

I read through that whole thread, what a chore.

Only 3 real good points:
- Teams are concerned about future cap space when ELCs expire, and TJ's 4 yr term is untenable
- Brise is probably waiting to make sure there is a season before giving up assets to dump a player
- Someone should just offer sheet Cirelli/Cernak, compensation would be 2nd rd for up to $4,363,095

If the Wings do a deal (which I doubt will happen), Biega and Erne should be thrown into the deal so Chris can save some money. (Yeah, I really hate those 2 players, lol.)

Looks to me like no deals until the season schedule gets announced. In fact, that could be the case with all of the remaining UFAs as well.

 

[Winger98]

I think he means LTIR'd just long enough to ice a roster, but Stammer plays in the playoffs & likely a few weeks prior to get up to speed. @ $8.5/yr, he could miss the majority of the season, get rested/100% healed & "make a come back" down the home stretch.

That's what I'm saying. When push comes to shove there just seems to be a lot of very convenient injuries when teams really need the cap space. I fully expect Stamkos to make that room to get Tampa under the cap, and to come back when when he can.

 

[Gniwder]

That's what I'm saying. When push comes to shove there just seems to be a lot of very convenient injuries when teams really need the cap space. I fully expect Stamkos to make that room to get Tampa under the cap, and to come back when when he can.

I think you guys are right, he missed most of the Finals and had surgery. That appears to be the way out, at least to be cap compliant when the season starts. LTIR Stamkos, then sign both RFAs after he's on LTIR.

That still doesn't fix their problem for the following season. They have a lot of good prospects, so they will have to add to get Seattle to pick TJ.
- If they go 7/3, I'd rather have McDonagh or Cernak or Foote (whichever is exposed) than TJ.
- If they go 4/4, Barré-Boulet (1PPG in AHL) is the top choice

TJ is from Spokane, so there's a chance he waives the NTC to go to Seattle, and it winds up being a separate trade.

Maybe something like:
Barré-Boulet (who they would have lost anyways) and TJ in exchange for taking a high AAV NTC contract like McDonagh, Palat, Killorn (who are all obviously good players anyways) instead of a prospect.

I don't see Seattle wanting Gourde without a huge add. TB gets rid of 2 aging players by giving up their top prospect who they would have lost anyways. Seattle gets 3 NHL caliber players for free.

The point here is that the only team that NEEDS the players that TB is getting rid of is Seattle. Considering teh cap crunch, Seattle might wind up being better than LV, which is good since I live 90 miles north of the city.

 

[odin1981]

I think you guys are right, he missed most of the Finals and had surgery. That appears to be the way out, at least to be cap compliant when the season starts. LTIR Stamkos, then sign both RFAs after he's on LTIR.

That still doesn't fix their problem for the following season. They have a lot of good prospects, so they will have to add to get Seattle to pick TJ.
- If they go 7/3, I'd rather have McDonagh or Cernak or Foote (whichever is exposed) than TJ.
- If they go 4/4, Barré-Boulet (1PPG in AHL) is the top choice

TJ is from Spokane, so there's a chance he waives the NTC to go to Seattle, and it winds up being a separate trade.

Maybe something like:
Barré-Boulet (who they would have lost anyways) and TJ in exchange for taking a high AAV NTC contract like McDonagh, Palat, Killorn (who are all obviously good players anyways) instead of a prospect.

I don't see Seattle wanting Gourde without a huge add. TB gets rid of 2 aging players by giving up their top prospect who they would have lost anyways. Seattle gets 3 NHL caliber players for free.

The point here is that the only team that NEEDS the players that TB is getting rid of is Seattle. Considering teh cap crunch, Seattle might wind up being better than LV, which is good since I live 90 miles north of the city.

Why do you feel Tyler wants to go to Seattle? Just because he is from the surrounding area? That could very much be exactly why he wouldn't want to go there. That presumption is assuming quite a bit. I might be making a mistake but if he has a ntc/nmc (which off the top of my head I am unaware of) he decides where he wants to be moved to.

 

[Gniwder]

Why do you feel Tyler wants to go to Seattle? Just because he is from the surrounding area? That could very much be exactly why he wouldn't want to go there. That presumption is assuming quite a bit. I might be making a mistake but if he has a ntc/nmc (which off the top of my head I am unaware of) he decides where he wants to be moved to.

Absolutely, he decides. I said "a chance".

WA is also tax free like Florida, and it doesn't snow here much, sometimes doesn't snow at all. It's really a matter of if he likes hot weather or more milder temps.

But yes, it's because he's from the area, and that would make him a popular player here. Spokane is still 3 hr drive from Seattle though. Personally, I'd rather have the other TJ... Oshie, from Everett WA.

 

[Gniwder]

Why do you feel Tyler wants to go to Seattle? Just because he is from the surrounding area? That could very much be exactly why he wouldn't want to go there. That presumption is assuming quite a bit. I might be making a mistake but if he has a ntc/nmc (which off the top of my head I am unaware of) he decides where he wants to be moved to.

The other thing is, wouldn't you want to be on a team where the fans and management want you instead of being hated for being a financial burden?

I think Seattle would take TJ straight up for $1M retention, and I'd think he'd be OK with the trade. Speculating of course. And TB probably won't retain salary, so they'll still have to add.

 

[odin1981]

The other thing is, wouldn't you want to be on a team where the fans and management want you instead of being hated for being a financial burden?

I think Seattle would take TJ straight up for $1M retention, and I'd think he'd be OK with the trade. Speculating of course. And TB probably won't retain salary, so they'll still have to add.

As long as the checks clear for the amount of money he is making. I wouldn't care what anyone thought about me. They don't know me. F em I'd be making wealth that with proper investments would last at least 2-3 generations easy.

 

[MBH]

1) How much better is TJ than Fabbri? I think trying out Fabbri at 2C makes more sense.
2) He's still only 5' tall, and that's not the type of player you want logging big minutes
3) 50.5% is only 0.5% above average
4) His numbers are already declining. Nielsen's deal has nothing to do with any future deals. You don't look at Holland's mistakes and make a deal just because it isn't as big of a f-up.

Staal cost $3.2M salary this season and the team needed a bottom pair D, which would probably have cost around $1.2M on open market. So basically they bought a mid 2nd for $2M. That beats a bottom first for $20M commitment.

Veleno is a good example, do you pay $20M for the chance to draft him? I wouldn't. And I will bet money that Chris won't either. We're not even sure if he's 2C, 3C or 4C yet.

Good debate.
1)Fabbri's had one good year. He's never done it at center (and why force it if you don't have to.). Or why not make Fabbri a 3C to take advantage of lesser matchups while he grows into the job.
2) Tyler Johnson has been just fine logging big minutes. When he played more minutes in the playoffs, he was outstanding, leading the NHL in goals, points and gamewinning goals
3) 50.5% is above average. Only slightly. But still.
4) Tyler Johnson lost some powerplay stats. At even strength he was on pace for 16-14-30 - despite reduced TOI.

Here's how Johnson's even-strength numbers compare to the Red Wings
Pro-rated for 82 games
Johnson 16-14-30 in 11:47
Bertuzzi 20-18-38 in 15:00
Larkin 16-28-44 in 16:00
Mantha 19-36-55 in 14:49
Fabbri 12-23-34 in 13:26
Zadina 12-12-24 in 12:09

Either way. We've got the caproom.
Johnson isn't a bad cap liability - nowhere near as bad as some are saying, anyway.
I wouldn't take him for free.
But I'd take him for a pick in the 20-31 range.
Lightning picks from Yzerman on:
27th
10th
3rd
19th
30th
14th
27th
27th
31st

This year, for example, players would could have had with a pick at 27, before Wallinder.
Perrault. Greig. Brisson. Wiesblatt.
3 of those guys were on my pick list.

Not to mention all the other guys between Wallinder and our next 2nd rounder.
Jarventi. Peterka, Grans, Colangelo. Khusnuditnov. ORourke. Torgersson. Gunler. Evangelista. Heineman. Commeso. Mysak. Andrae.

For me? My favorites on the list are Greig, Khusnuditnov. Mysak. Gunler. Peterka, Evangelista. Heinman.

Would I suffer through Johnson's cap hit for 4 seasons for one of those guys?
Absolutely.
This year, if it even happens, is going to be shit anyway.
We're not going to need the cap room.
And Johnson is close to being worth the cap hit now. Two years from now, it's likely he'll be even less worth it.
Big deal.
The only people we have signed are:
Larkin and Mantha.
Bertuzzi will get a raise. Fabbri might still be here.
Zadina will get a raise - but nothing crazy.
On defense, the only threat for a big contracts is Hronek.
A potential Seider deal wouldn't kick in the final year of Johnson's contract.
But that's it.

It's just really hard to imagine a scenario where a Tyler Johnson contract blows up in Detroit's face.

 

[MBH]

I am growing tired of the revolving door of mediocre centers going back to Richards, Weiss, Filpulla, Neilson etc... I just hope if we are taking on another mediocre center the return is worth it. I would love to see our cap space leveraged but really hope its for something that is going to move the dial.

As do I.
None of those guys brought us a first round pick..

We wanted to weaponize the cap space.

Getting a first rounder for Tyler Johnson is how you do it.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

@MBH

You're comparing TJ's 5on5 (with a loaded Cup roster) vs. our Top 5 F...all of whom had to get passes etc. from 3rd & 4th liners & AHL players.

One of these is not like the other.

 

[Retire91]

As do I.
None of those guys brought us a first round pick..

We wanted to weaponize the cap space.

Getting a first rounder for Tyler Johnson is how you do it.

It's going to be close enough to a 2nd round pick coming from Tampa