Weaponized cap space?

[Gniwder]

It's going to be close enough to a 2nd round pick coming from Tampa

Yeah, definitely not enough considering we got a mid second for $3.2M for one year of Staal. It would take at least 2 first rounders in my opinion, so that we can include one of the picks to get Seattle to take him in the expansion. Then we get a 1st for one year of TJ, which would be ideal.

Moot point since TJ has no reason to waive his NTC to play for a dumpster fire team. Same with Gourde, Palat, and Killorn. If there's a trade, the Wings won't be involved. Adding one decent forward still keeps this team in the bottom 5 next season.

Seattle is their only hope. MAF waived his NMC for the expansion draft, and the Pens gave up a second to get rid of one year/$6M contract. The big problem for TB though is they have a lot of desirable prospects, so it'll take more than a 1st to have them take a salary dump. I would take Barré-Boulet over TJ and a 1st.

 

[Gniwder]

Good debate.
1)Fabbri's had one good year. He's never done it at center (and why force it if you don't have to.). Or why not make Fabbri a 3C to take advantage of lesser matchups while he grows into the job.
2) Tyler Johnson has been just fine logging big minutes. When he played more minutes in the playoffs, he was outstanding, leading the NHL in goals, points and gamewinning goals
3) 50.5% is above average. Only slightly. But still.
4) Tyler Johnson lost some powerplay stats. At even strength he was on pace for 16-14-30 - despite reduced TOI.

Here's how Johnson's even-strength numbers compare to the Red Wings
Pro-rated for 82 games
Johnson 16-14-30 in 11:47
Bertuzzi 20-18-38 in 15:00
Larkin 16-28-44 in 16:00
Mantha 19-36-55 in 14:49
Fabbri 12-23-34 in 13:26
Zadina 12-12-24 in 12:09

Either way. We've got the caproom.
Johnson isn't a bad cap liability - nowhere near as bad as some are saying, anyway.
I wouldn't take him for free.
But I'd take him for a pick in the 20-31 range.
Lightning picks from Yzerman on:
27th
10th
3rd
19th
30th
14th
27th
27th
31st

This year, for example, players would could have had with a pick at 27, before Wallinder.
Perrault. Greig. Brisson. Wiesblatt.
3 of those guys were on my pick list.

Not to mention all the other guys between Wallinder and our next 2nd rounder.
Jarventi. Peterka, Grans, Colangelo. Khusnuditnov. ORourke. Torgersson. Gunler. Evangelista. Heineman. Commeso. Mysak. Andrae.

For me? My favorites on the list are Greig, Khusnuditnov. Mysak. Gunler. Peterka, Evangelista. Heinman.

Would I suffer through Johnson's cap hit for 4 seasons for one of those guys?
Absolutely.
This year, if it even happens, is going to be shit anyway.
We're not going to need the cap room.
And Johnson is close to being worth the cap hit now. Two years from now, it's likely he'll be even less worth it.
Big deal.
The only people we have signed are:
Larkin and Mantha.
Bertuzzi will get a raise. Fabbri might still be here.
Zadina will get a raise - but nothing crazy.
On defense, the only threat for a big contracts is Hronek.
A potential Seider deal wouldn't kick in the final year of Johnson's contract.
But that's it.

It's just really hard to imagine a scenario where a Tyler Johnson contract blows up in Detroit's face.

None of those guys are worth $20M. The way rebuilds work is that you build through the draft then buy UFAs once there's a solid foundation. TJ's contract would eat into those funds his last 2 years.

Plus the goal is to suck this season anyways, and it's a moot point because nobody with a NTC is coming to DEtroit.

 

[evolutionbaby]

I know people Prefer to tank etc, but adding TJ really isn’t changing the trajectory of our spot in the standings but will make us more competitive and be good to have in the locker room. Getting shelled like we have isn’t good for the development either. I have no problem taking on that cap if we get a first for him.

 

[NotLeddy]

I really wish Steve picked up TJ's contract when he was available for free to avoid the NTC.

Center is a huge hole depth-wise within the organization, and I'm not sold on Veleno being a top 6 C as of right now. Larkin is the only top 6 C in the organization, and depending on how you feel about Gagner or Namestnikov at 2C, the position was not officially addressed this offseason (was disappointed at the lack of centers in the draft tbh), at least Steve actively searching for a middle 6 C who can play that spot. I don't think enough people address enough about how much of a disaster Filppula was in that spot last season defensively and contributed to the team being historically bad as much as Howard, Ericsson, Bowey etc.
Gagner or Namestnikov playing the 2C role doesn't make me confident, and neither does Fabbri. But even if any of those players only provide improvement defensively, Johnson's isolated offensive impacts are way better than any of Detroit's current options.

Four years for TJ, big deal. Next offseason (summer, hopefully), Steve can buyout the final year of Nielsen's contract if there's simply no more hockey left in him and not resign Glendening/Helm. Start phasing in prospects/Grand Rapids players like Syracuse/Tampa did in 2013-15 in your bottom 6 with Johnson being the only one with term. Detroit is so incredibly weak at center I'd take him even in hopes that he becomes a 30 pt Frans Nielsen clone in the final two years of his contract.

But I really think it's a moot point because there's no way Johnson would waive to go to Detroit. I really don't think there's a lot of options out there that could've really, really strengthened Detroit's biggest hole going into next season, and Steve could've picked him up for free.

 

[MBH]

@MBH

You're comparing TJ's 5on5 (with a loaded Cup roster) vs. our Top 5 F...all of whom had to get passes etc. from 3rd & 4th liners & AHL players.

One of these is not like the other.

I don't buy it.
If he's lining up with Fabbri and Zadina, he'll get his points.
Tyler Johnson isn't quite the same guy who destroyed the Red Wings that year...but he's still easily the best 2C on the Red Wings.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don't buy it.
If he's lining up with Fabbri and Zadina, he'll get his points.
Tyler Johnson isn't quite the same guy who destroyed the Red Wings that year...but he's still easily the best 2C on the Red Wings.

Difference is Hronek/DDK passes + our bottom 5D. Vs. TBL's D...who passes better? Which D maintains possession better? etc.... How does that impact TJ's production?

Fabbri+Zadina+ whoever are likely to get a season long lesson in helping out their D.

 

[Gniwder]

Difference is Hronek/DDK passes + our bottom 5D. Vs. TBL's D...who passes better? Which D maintains possession better? etc.... How does that impact TJ's production?

Fabbri+Zadina+ whoever are likely to get a season long lesson in helping out their D.

DDK-Hronek
Nemeth-Stecher

So the second pair won't be nearly as bad defensively as Bowey, Cholo, Ericsson, Beiga, Daley, and Hicketts, but I think they will have trouble moving the puck. I think they'll be able to get the puck over our blue line this season.

Looking at that line, with or without TJ, the lack of speed is somewhat concerning.

 

[MBH]

I really wish Steve picked up TJ's contract when he was available for free to avoid the NTC.

Center is a huge hole depth-wise within the organization, and I'm not sold on Veleno being a top 6 C as of right now. Larkin is the only top 6 C in the organization, and depending on how you feel about Gagner or Namestnikov at 2C, the position was not officially addressed this offseason (was disappointed at the lack of centers in the depth tbh), at least Steve actively searching for a middle 6 C who can play that spot. I don't think enough people address enough about how much of a disaster Filppula was in that spot last season defensively and contributed to the team being historically bad as much as Howard, Ericsson, Bowey etc.
Gagner or Namestnikov playing the 2C role doesn't make me confident, and neither does Fabbri. But even if any of those players only provide improvement defensively, Johnson's isolated offensive impacts are way better than any of Detroit's current options.

Four years for TJ, big deal. Next offseason (summer, hopefully), Steve can buyout the final year of Nielsen's contract if there's simply no more hockey left in him and not resign Glendening/Helm. Start phasing in prospects/Grand Rapids players like Syracuse/Tampa did in 2013-15 in your bottom 6 with Johnson being the only one with term. Detroit is so incredibly weak at center I'd take him even in hopes that he becomes a 30 pt Frans Nielsen clone in the final two years of his contract.

But I really think it's a moot point because there's no way Johnson would waive to go to Detroit. I really don't think there's a lot of options out there that could've really, really strengthened Detroit's biggest hole going into next season, and Steve could've picked him up for free.

I think the existing options are questionable at best.
Gagner has had 3 AHL stints, right, since 2016. Does anyone see him as anything?
Namestnikov centered Kucherov and Stamkos and averaged .5 points/game and won 45 percent of his faceoffs.
Fabbri had a really nice season for us. But he did have a late slide. He's got a career faceoff mark of 41.7 percent. Also not sold at all on his ability handle center's defensive duties.

After that - it's Glendening, Nielsen, Filppula, Helm, yada yada.