Wallstedt or Cossa or both?

[DetroitRed]

I hear you on this. I'd probably still draft a goaltender with a fifth or a sixth just to have more stock in the cupboards, but beyond Wallstedt and Cossa, both of whom should go in the top twenty, there just aren't any exciting options. I like Gerasimyuk's numbers, but I wasn't impressed with him the couple times I saw him play. Gaudreau maybe, but he'll go way ahead of where I'd feel comfortable picking him.

Yeah, the last two guys before you mentioned the Russians too. Personally, I would consider them in the third round, maybe fourth, not earlier.

As for the OHL guys, those would be more like second rounders, but they didn't get to play many games. So, I'm not sure. We do have three picks in the second round. Can we take Lennox or Gaudreau with one of the later two second round picks? That's the question maybe.

 

[MVPete96]

Here’s the problem with drafting a goalie in the early first. Even if they pan out and are a top 5 goalie in the league you eventually have to pay them and with a hard cap building a cup contending roster with a $10 mil goalie isn’t optimal. Hell wings have a top 15 tandem in the league right now and they were free

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I think I avoid Cossa, guys. That player looks like fools gold to me.

The Edmonton Oil King are easily the most dominant team in major junior right now with 7(!!!) players above a point per game average.
In 23 games they've scored 104 goals for, but have given up 41 goals against. Here, look at their schedule and results. Edmonton Oil Kings – Official site of the Edmonton Oil Kings

The only teams they're playing are Lethbridge Hurricanes, Red Deer Rebels, Calgary Hitmen and Medicine Hat Tigers. Not exactly cream of the crop in the WHL.

Oh, I don't think anyone would disagree that Cossa's numbers are inflated due to Edmonton's skill level. That's absolutely happening.

People like Cossa because he has size and athleticism that you can't teach, and he shows better mechanics and decisions than you usually get out of an 18 year old goalie of that size. While the production is good, he's very much a tools over production pick. It's a Ben Bishop type bet.

I personally don't have a good enough eye to evaluate his puck tracking, lateral quickness, rebound control, etc. I'm simply not a goalie scout, it's like a different sport to me. But I like what I've read and what I've seen in a couple Oil Kings games this year.

I think on pedigree he'd be our best goalie prospect in many years. That's a pick I don't at all mind making in the late first or early second, although I suppose it depends on who falls there.

 

[Bench]

Here’s the problem with drafting a goalie in the early first. Even if they pan out and are a top 5 goalie in the league you eventually have to pay them and with a hard cap building a cup contending roster with a $10 mil goalie isn’t optimal. Hell wings have a top 15 tandem in the league right now and they were free

The difference between Tampa's goalie tandem and Detroit's is $4.2 million in cap (5% of total cap space).

I'd rather play cheaper, younger guys on my bottom lines than downgrade from Vasilevskiy to Bernier.

 

[Winger98]

The difference between Tampa's goalie tandem and Detroit's is $4.2 million in cap (5% of total cap space).

I'd rather play cheaper, younger guys on my bottom lines than downgrade from Vasilevskiy to Bernier.

Also, why is it a bad thing to pay a guy who lives up to his billing? If by some miracle we have a goalie who is routinely talked about for the Vezina and puts up gaudy numbers...yeah, pay that guy.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Also, why is it a bad thing to pay a guy who lives up to his billing? If by some miracle we have a goalie who is routinely talked about for the Vezina and puts up gaudy numbers...yeah, pay that guy.

That's why I like Wallstedt. I think he could be that guy. The kid has icewater in his veins and exudes confidence on the ice. The only thing that I could tell about his game that I didn't think was superb in relation to his other skills is his glove hand. But his blocker side looked unbeatable in his shift by shift and highlight reels.

 

[PostFriend]

It's difficult to really compare these two as they compete at different levels. One plays in one of the world's best senior pro-hockey league, outside the NHL. One plays junior hockey. JW has proven that he can handle the step from junior level to senior at a young age. SC hasn't challenged that step yet.
Maybe it says who is the best player today. But who is the best prospect ?? Goalies are generally difficult to project...

 

[Killerjas]

It's difficult to really compare these two as they compete at different levels. One plays in one of the world's best senior pro-hockey league, outside the NHL. One plays junior hockey. JW has proven that he can handle the step from junior level to senior at a young age. SC hasn't challenged that step yet.
Maybe it says who is the best player today. But who is the best prospect ?? Goalies are generally difficult to project...

Wallstedt and it is not even close

 

[RedWingzz]

I'd be ok with Cossa with the Caps pick, but I think he is long gone by then.

I'm not in favour of picking a goalie at 6/7/8, wherever it is that we end up. Hopefully one of the 4 big D is there, if not, take Johnson/Eklund.

 

[deca guard]

i wouldnt use a pick on a goalie til say 3rd round . ide rather sign ufa goalies from weak teams and count on a strong defense we build to make them lots better . ide thusly be llooking at usings our late 1st on a skater . look how good bobrosky looked behind cbj strong d then crumbled in florida .

 

[Bench]

i wouldnt use a pick on a goalie til say 3rd round .

I get the thinking behind this, but it's also how you end up with the empty goalie prospect pool that we have today.

At some point if you want odds at the best goalies you have to draft the top ones available.

Maybe it's not this year with #6 but at some point Yzerman is going to spend a serious asset on a goalie. He's always emphasized that with his teams in Tampa.

 

[Dotter]

I'd like both.

 

[deca guard]

I get the thinking behind this, but it's also how you end up with the empty goalie prospect pool that we have today.

At some point if you want odds at the best goalies you have to draft the top ones available.

Maybe it's not this year with #6 but at some point Yzerman is going to spend a serious asset on a goalie. He's always emphasized that with his teams in Tampa.

i guess i have developed this veiwpoint from all the years of holland not being able to draft a goalie

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

While I wouldn’t be opposed to Cossa with the Washington pick, I would not want us to draft a goalie at 6th for several reasons.

- there are more goalies capable of being a starter than there are jobs in the NHL and many can be found in free agency.

-goalies are almost entirely hit or miss and I don’t think we’re in a position to miss.

-even if we pick one and he becomes elite after a few years we’d have to pay him like an elite goalie and teams with high paid goalies have not fared well playoff wise the past decade. It essentially puts a timer on our window.

-additionally goalies seem to have much greater variance season to season than most players. Look at how quickly goalies like Binnington and Bobrovsky went from looking like world beaters to below average. I’d be hesitant to give any goalie more than 4-5 years

Would much rather build an elite defense and pick up a decent goalie in free agency. The fact that a team as bad as last year’s Wings was able to lure a player like Greiss should show people that there will always be a good backup who wants to become a starter available in free agency.

In my eyes it is much harder to acquire a top pairing d man or top line forward than a goalie capable of winning a cup on a good
team.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I think taking both goalies would be incredibly Joker pilled.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I think taking both goalies would be incredibly Joker pilled.

I can't see the point of this whatsoever.

 

[Bench]

- there are more goalies capable of being a starter than there are jobs in the NHL and many can be found in free agency.

So there are like 40 quality starters currently in the NHL? I find that hard to believe.

Just because Tristan Jarry started for the Penguins doesn't mean he's a goalie worth using all year if you have any other options.

 

[newfy]

Makes absolutely no sense to take a goalie at 6. At 22, go for either of them if theyre there and you like them. Dont consider it at 6

 

[lilidk]

Makes absolutely no sense to take a goalie at 6. At 22, go for either of them if theyre there and you like them. Dont consider it at 6

I don't know why even talk about it , Yzerman against goalie in top 10. Washington , probably , depends who is available

 

[Winger98]

While I wouldn’t be opposed to Cossa with the Washington pick, I would not want us to draft a goalie at 6th for several reasons.

- there are more goalies capable of being a starter than there are jobs in the NHL and many can be found in free agency.

-goalies are almost entirely hit or miss and I don’t think we’re in a position to miss.

-even if we pick one and he becomes elite after a few years we’d have to pay him like an elite goalie and teams with high paid goalies have not fared well playoff wise the past decade. It essentially puts a timer on our window.

-additionally goalies seem to have much greater variance season to season than most players. Look at how quickly goalies like Binnington and Bobrovsky went from looking like world beaters to below average. I’d be hesitant to give any goalie more than 4-5 years

Would much rather build an elite defense and pick up a decent goalie in free agency. The fact that a team as bad as last year’s Wings was able to lure a player like Greiss should show people that there will always be a good backup who wants to become a starter available in free agency.

In my eyes it is much harder to acquire a top pairing d man or top line forward than a goalie capable of winning a cup on a good
team.

This past season of all of the goalies to play 25+ games, only 15 had a sv% of .910 or better (one of them was...Binnington). Last season, of goalies who played a minimum of 40 games, only 11 had a sv% of .910 or above (and Binnington was one of them again). The season before that we saw 17 goalies play 45+ games with a sv% at or north of .910 (I tried roughly adjusting for the different season lengths with the different game requirements to narrow the list only to guys who were being used as legit starters - no 20 game wunderkinds).

Another way to look at goalies who do well isn't just by seeing how many that were making big bucks were also winning, but how winning teams go the goalies they won with. LA drafted quick. I think Chicago drafted Crawford. Anaheim drafted Giguere. Boston drafted Rask. TB drafted Vasy. Pittsburgh drafted MAF and Murray. Washington drafted Holtby.

Now, were all of these guys earning a bunch of money when their teams won? Not necessarily, but Cup teams also don't tend to grab their goalies out of the free agent bargain bin, either.

I get not wanting to spend a 6OA on a goalie, but over the past twenty years we're seeing a lot of teams win with homegrown goalies. Maybe it's because they're more easily cost controlled and so teams can get more bang for their buck until the goalie starts getting close to UFA. Maybe it's just teams groom goalies to fit their teams. I don't know.

I also wouldn't get too hung up on the idea that goalies are wildly volatile. Not many will consistently crank out .920 sv% seasons, but I know a couple of other posters here did some leg work on goalies in the past and good goalies seemed to stay good until they were about 30. They could still have good seasons after that but that's where you see more volatility with the better goalies.

While we're rebuilding and these teams aren't expected to do a whole lot, yeah, go grab someone out of free agency. But if they think Wallstedt is going to be one of the top goalies in the league... that's worth a lot for the first ten or so years of his career.

 

[Winger98]

Makes absolutely no sense to take a goalie at 6. At 22, go for either of them if theyre there and you like them. Dont consider it at 6

So, if he's the best guy on your board...you ignore that and take a guy you think less of?

 

[newfy]

So, if he's the best guy on your board...you ignore that and take a guy you think less of?

Yeah I actually would at 6. I think the risk reward with goalies is wayyyy too high at that spot. Even if hes BPA, its a very volatile BPA and I dont think the bang for your buck is there either. Getting top 6 centers and top 4 dmen is way harder than getting a goalie in later rounds.

Go try to find a legit top 6 center in free agency vs a solid starter and its much harder to find the center.

But this conversation comes up the last 3 years with Knight, Askarov and now Wallstedt. NHL GMs dont draft them that high because they know how volatile they are and where the real value is

 

[WingNut]

Say Wallstedt drops to 13 or so. Would you guys trade up from 23 giving up and extra 2nd rd pick to get him? I personally would. Getting Johnson and Wallstedt would be huge

 

[Winger98]

Yeah I actually would at 6. I think the risk reward with goalies is wayyyy too high at that spot. Even if hes BPA, its a very volatile BPA and I dont think the bang for your buck is there either. Getting top 6 centers and top 4 dmen is way harder than getting a goalie in later rounds.

Go try to find a legit top 6 center in free agency vs a solid starter and its much harder to find the center.

But this conversation comes up the last 3 years with Knight, Askarov and now Wallstedt. NHL GMs dont draft them that high because they know how volatile they are and where the real value is

Something tells me you'd never have him at 6th.

If you trust your scouts enough to have him at 6th, I think you take him. Picked five random drafts, 04-08, and getting a top6 forward or top4D wasn't exactly a sure thing in that group of spots of 6-10. Outside of an abnormally deep draft, I'm not sure you're rolling the dice much more that the pick works out.

I also think how GMs view drafting goalies is slowly shifting. It seems that what used to be a thing where you blew a 4th or 5th rounder on one every year to see if they pan out has become something where the top goalie talent in a draft is gone in the third. You're right that this is only a discussion now because we've also seen some freakish talents the past few years, but if we want to really go after a goalie I think we're going to have to get comfortable with spending some more serious capital than a mid-late rounder.

For what it's worth, I would have a hard time going Wallstedt at 6th, too. I think he's likely to be the guy with the highest ceiling there, though, and the most likely guy to over play his draft slot. Considering how we're not winning the draft lotto pretty consistently taking that homerun swing becomes a bit more appealing for me. I really wish we had a spot in that 11-15 area, as that would be my sweet spot for grabbing him.

 

[wingfan]

This past season of all of the goalies to play 25+ games, only 15 had a sv% of .910 or better (one of them was...Binnington). Last season, of goalies who played a minimum of 40 games, only 11 had a sv% of .910 or above (and Binnington was one of them again). The season before that we saw 17 goalies play 45+ games with a sv% at or north of .910 (I tried roughly adjusting for the different season lengths with the different game requirements to narrow the list only to guys who were being used as legit starters - no 20 game wunderkinds).

Another way to look at goalies who do well isn't just by seeing how many that were making big bucks were also winning, but how winning teams go the goalies they won with. LA drafted quick. I think Chicago drafted Crawford. Anaheim drafted Giguere. Boston drafted Rask. TB drafted Vasy. Pittsburgh drafted MAF and Murray. Washington drafted Holtby.

Now, were all of these guys earning a bunch of money when their teams won? Not necessarily, but Cup teams also don't tend to grab their goalies out of the free agent bargain bin, either.

I get not wanting to spend a 6OA on a goalie, but over the past twenty years we're seeing a lot of teams win with homegrown goalies. Maybe it's because they're more easily cost controlled and so teams can get more bang for their buck until the goalie starts getting close to UFA. Maybe it's just teams groom goalies to fit their teams. I don't know.

I also wouldn't get too hung up on the idea that goalies are wildly volatile. Not many will consistently crank out .920 sv% seasons, but I know a couple of other posters here did some leg work on goalies in the past and good goalies seemed to stay good until they were about 30. They could still have good seasons after that but that's where you see more volatility with the better goalies.

While we're rebuilding and these teams aren't expected to do a whole lot, yeah, go grab someone out of free agency. But if they think Wallstedt is going to be one of the top goalies in the league... that's worth a lot for the first ten or so years of his career.

Rask was drafted by Toronto. I understand your point though. I’d really like Eklund as I think he’s BPA at 6 if he’s even still there, I wouldn’t be upset with Wallestedt though.