Prospect Info: Vitali Kravtsov: Part IX

[Shesterkybomb]

Kravtsov will be in ny by years end imo

 

[FireGerardGallant]

So in his last 11 games, he has 0 goals, 2 assists, and 19 SOG. When he struggles it's usually because of something or someone other than him--so who/what are we blaming this cold streak on?

All that and he's still 3rd in U21 scoring in the second best league in the world and only one goal behind for his team lead in goals. He def has been struggling recently but it still appears he's shown positive signs of improvement this season.

 

[bl02]

Kravtsov will be in ny by years end imo

would be a mistake unless he can go back to KHL in 2021-2022 season. Not sure how that would work contractually?

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Kravtsov will be in ny by years end imo

you mean by season's end?

 

[nyr2k2]

All that and he's still 3rd in U21 scoring in the second best league in the world and only one goal behind for his team lead in goals. He def has been struggling recently but it still appears he's shown positive signs of improvement this season.

FWIW I'm not dumping on the kid. It's just, one of the things that many people harped on was that he should stay in Russia, and then pointed to other Russians who stuck around until age 22 or 23. And that was a valid point, but Kuznetsov for example had 41 points in 49 games in his age 20-21 season. Buchnevich had 37 in 58. Kaprizov had 40 in 46. Panarin had just 18 in 40 but did have 31 in 50 the season prior. Tarasenko had 47 in 54. Etc. The idea being he's a special player and we just needed to let him develop at home and he would take off.

I'm glad he is evidently improving in playing more responsibly all over the ice, but I'd like to see him start really taking control and becoming a dominant offensive producer.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

you mean by season's end?

Yes that's what i meant, came out wrong

 

[egelband]

i love how certain posters think we gotta rush kravtsov over cuz the KHL is terrible for his development!!!! when we have panarin and buchnevich who played 5 years and 3 years post draft year in the khl. the dude that spent 5 years in the KHL was arguably the best player in the NHL last year!

I think it’s a fair point that KHL coaches aren’t necessarily in the development business. If VK is helping the team win, he’ll play. But if he hits a rut, the coach probably won’t let him play through it, for example. Anyhow, I have no reason not to trust the Rangers judgment on this.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

When his KHL season ends, he probably flies to NY. Assuming the NHL allows for "taxi squads", he would be part of it, similar to the post season this past summer. Whether or not he plays, depends on Quinn of course. Right now, we have Gauthier as our 3rd best RW. He would have to battle it out with him

 

[kovazub94]

So in his last 11 games, he has 0 goals, 2 assists, and 19 SOG. When he struggles it's usually because of something or someone other than him--so who/what are we blaming this cold streak on?

Out of these 19 SOG he had 5 in one game so in the other 10 he was closer to only 1 SOGPG average.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Just 12 minutes of ice time yesterday. Only 3 forwards has less time.

He's gotta wake up offensively...

 

[Kords]

I hate the youtuber linked so much.

Hes a click bait-y asshat.

I'm so glad i'm not the only one who thinks this, couldn't agree more.

 

[Kupo]

So in his last 11 games, he has 0 goals, 2 assists, and 19 SOG. When he struggles it's usually because of something or someone other than him--so who/what are we blaming this cold streak on?

f***ing Quinn, obviously.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

f***ing Quinn, obviously.

It's always Sedlak.

I'll blame him for when certain Rangers go cold too.

 

[Edge]

For whatever reason, Kravtsov feels like a guy who needs to find that chemistry with a linemate to be productive.

Which is fine; he has high-end skills, and if he has to be carefully paired to bring them out then so be it.

But I can definitely see him, in a couple years, having difficulty earning top6 opportunities, because he isn't carrying play on the 3rd line. I feel an added sense of urgency with him, when it comes to developing into a dogged forechecker or defensive whiz, or some other useful role. He could really use that extra shot in the arm.

I think there's a decent chance Kravtsov will find himself in a support role, not unlike Buchnevich. At times he'll have you thinking you've got someone who can pot 70 points (and maybe could in the right situation), and other times you'll find yourself staring at more of that 50-55 point level. Which isn't bad, but creates feelings of wanting more.

When Kravtsov is on, he has the ability to change the pace of a game. When he's off, he can be pretty invisible. He's yet to outgrow that description.

 

[kovazub94]

FWIW I'm not dumping on the kid. It's just, one of the things that many people harped on was that he should stay in Russia, and then pointed to other Russians who stuck around until age 22 or 23. And that was a valid point, but Kuznetsov for example had 41 points in 49 games in his age 20-21 season. Buchnevich had 37 in 58. Kaprizov had 40 in 46. Panarin had just 18 in 40 but did have 31 in 50 the season prior. Tarasenko had 47 in 54. Etc. The idea being he's a special player and we just needed to let him develop at home and he would take off.

I'm glad he is evidently improving in playing more responsibly all over the ice, but I'd like to see him start really taking control and becoming a dominant offensive producer.

General statement not directly at you (as you're already perfectly aware) - there are many factors that contribute to variations in levels of production (usage, teams' system, linemates etc).

However, to the issue you're raising - after becoming aware of Kravtsov and following his progress for three years, I think he's trending more to end up around Buchnevich level of player rather than Tarasenko or Panarin. This is not to say that he can't still have a significant "qualitative" jump in his progression trajectory but with every year it gets less and less likely.

P.S. Sorry for my Russian players references. ; )

 

[nyr2k2]

General statement not directly at you (as you're already perfectly aware) - there are many factors that contribute to variations in levels of production (usage, teams' system, linemates etc).

However, to the issue you're raising - after becoming aware of Kravtsov and following his progress for three years, I think he's trending more to end up around Buchnevich level of player rather than Tarasenko or Panarin. This is not to say that he can't still have a significant "qualitative" jump in his progression trajectory but with every year it gets less and less likely.

P.S. Sorry for my Russian players references. ; )

For sure. With Buchnevich, every once in a while he does something that makes so go "OMG this guy has so much talent!" But on a consistent, day-in, day-out basis, what he brings produces 40-50 points. Which, hey, that's valuable. I think when Kravtsov was drafted we were all hoping for a 70 point guy. He could still certainly become that player--look at Dadonov: drafted, came here for a bit, went home for several years, eventually came back and is now a 50-70 point guy; a very unconventional path--but I think he is more than likely trending towards a Buchnevich instead of towards those other guys.

 

[True Blue]

When Kravtsov is on, he has the ability to change the pace of a game. When he's off, he can be pretty invisible. He's yet to outgrow that description.

Sounds a lot like Kovalev when he was here

 

[kovazub94]

For sure. With Buchnevich, every once in a while he does something that makes so go "OMG this guy has so much talent!" But on a consistent, day-in, day-out basis, what he brings produces 40-50 points. Which, hey, that's valuable. I think when Kravtsov was drafted we were all hoping for a 70 point guy. He could still certainly become that player--look at Dadonov: drafted, came here for a bit, went home for several years, eventually came back and is now a 50-70 point guy; a very unconventional path--but I think he is more than likely trending towards a Buchnevich instead of towards those other guys.

Yeah, when I say Buchnevich level - I'm thinking 50+ to 60+ production.

 

[Edge]

Sounds a lot like Kovalev when he was here

I think there is some of that at work. A guy who looks like he as the potential to be one of the best in his class, but has certain flaws that keep him out of that conversation for most periods of his career.

For sure. With Buchnevich, every once in a while he does something that makes so go "OMG this guy has so much talent!" But on a consistent, day-in, day-out basis, what he brings produces 40-50 points. Which, hey, that's valuable. I think when Kravtsov was drafted we were all hoping for a 70 point guy.

I'd say maybe split the difference there.

Buch is in a weird spot in the sense that his point totals are also some reflective of the fact that he's only played 74 games once.

If we go from a production standpoint, Buch has produced at a 16 goal, 48 point, 27 goal, 49 point and 19 goal 55 point --- so taking into the trend and age, you're probably looking at closer to a 20 goal, 50-60 point player --- with the upper end of that being what I think was/is a fair middle of the road expectation for Kravtsov.

So I can't say I'm not seeing a 50-60 point, and eventually a 60-70 point guy if Kravtsov is put in a similar situation to Buch 4 or 5 years down the line.

Will Kravtsov drive a line at the NHL level? Probably not. I think the end product will be dangerous at times, illusive at other times, but probably not too far off certain draft day expectations. Just probably not as close to the fantasy image some fans had in mind.

 

[Mikos87]

So in his last 11 games, he has 0 goals, 2 assists, and 19 SOG. When he struggles it's usually because of something or someone other than him--so who/what are we blaming this cold streak on?

Is he driving the net? Creating chances?

 

[nyr2k2]

Is he driving the net? Creating chances?

He goes to the net, for sure. And he does create chances. But, this isn't one of those situations where he's doing everything right and is just having Chris Higgins-level luck. If you consider that his his previous 13 games he had 8 goals, 2 assists, and had 50 SOG, you see something has changed. It's not statistical noise or anything.

Lingering problems from his injury a while back? Who knows.

 

[nyr2k2]

I think there is some of that at work. A guy who looks like he as the potential to be one of the best in his class, but has certain flaws that keep him out of that conversation for most periods of his career.



I'd say maybe split the difference there.

Buch is in a weird spot in the sense that his point totals are also some reflective of the fact that he's only played 74 games once.

If we go from a production standpoint, Buch has produced at a 16 goal, 48 point, 27 goal, 49 point and 19 goal 55 point --- so taking into the trend and age, you're probably looking at closer to a 20 goal, 50-60 point player --- with the upper end of that being what I think was/is a fair middle of the road expectation for Kravtsov.

So I can't say I'm not seeing a 50-60 point, and eventually a 60-70 point guy if Kravtsov is put in a similar situation to Buch 4 or 5 years down the line.

Will Kravtsov drive a line at the NHL level? Probably not. I think the end product will be dangerous at times, illusive at other times, but probably not too far off certain draft day expectations. Just probably not as close to the fantasy image some fans had in mind.

The guy we saw the first half of the KHL season so far, sure, I'll say we're still looking at 50-60 points. The guy we've seen since then? Makes you wonder. The improvements he made in the AHL last year were largely unrelated to directly producing points--better hustle, backchecking, knowing when to dump in, minimizing turnovers, etc. That's all good stuff and does help generate offense in the end, but he still clearly didn't know what to do with either the puck on or off his stick to be successful in the AHL. Some people claimed it was because his teammates sucked, which in a vacuum was true, but he wasn;t doing any better than them. His struggles were on him.

I don't know for sure what has changed with him this year. An injury? He was red hot and now ice cold? Lucky and unlucky? Is he just streaky? I don't know. But the season, taken as a whole, doesn't make me feel much more optimistic about his ability to be an impact player in the NHL. I still lean towards 40-50 point upside based on what I see. Of course he could go score 10 goals the next 15 games and show these past 11 were an aberration, but unless I see more consistent offense from him I'm just going to have to remain more bearish than most.

 

[Edge]

The guy we saw the first half of the KHL season so far, sure, I'll say we're still looking at 50-60 points. The guy we've seen since then? Makes you wonder. The improvements he made in the AHL last year were largely unrelated to directly producing points--better hustle, backchecking, knowing when to dump in, minimizing turnovers, etc. That's all good stuff and does help generate offense in the end, but he still clearly didn't know what to do with either the puck on or off his stick to be successful in the AHL. Some people claimed it was because his teammates sucked, which in a vacuum was true, but he wasn;t doing any better than them. His struggles were on him.

I don't know for sure what has changed with him this year. An injury? He was red hot and now ice cold? Lucky and unlucky? Is he just streaky? I don't know. But the season, taken as a whole, doesn't make me feel much more optimistic about his ability to be an impact player in the NHL. I still lean towards 40-50 point upside based on what I see. Of course he could go score 10 goals the next 15 games and show these past 11 were an aberration, but unless I see more consistent offense from him I'm just going to have to remain more bearish than most.

I will admit that with Lias gone, Kravtosov is probably the prospect the board is going to over-analyze a bit. I think there's going to be an ebb and flow with him.

I think he's streaky, which has always been the case, and I think to some extent he's going to need time to learn how to translate the highlight reel shit into actual results. Full disclosure, Kravtsov is one of the names that immediately pops into mind when I beat the drum about moves that work against lower level competition but don't work as well against the top-tier competition. That's why I tend to value translatable skills over the pretty stuff.

But I think if he continued to perform the way he did to start the year, you're looking at way more than the a 50-60 point player. With the way he was scoring, that's where you're looking at that 70+ point guy. So I do think there's probably too much hedging on him.

He's maybe not quite the 70 point player his talent indicates he can be, but I think he still compares quite favorably to the 40 point range that's being mentioned. That middle ground is always the hardest to peg, but I think if you split the difference you're right back in that 50-60 point range.

 

[nyr2k2]

He's maybe not quite the 70 point player his talent indicates he can be, but I think he still compares quite favorably to the 40 point range that's being mentioned. That middle ground is always the hardest to peg, but I think if you split the difference you're right back in that 50-60 point range.

I agree with all of this. I'm just going beyond saying I don't think he hits the high-end potential, and that over the past year-and-a-half I've become skeptical he hits the mid-ground "reasonable projection" where he's at 50-60 points, and is closer to the lower-end projection. That's not based on 11 games but what I've seen since the start of last year (and concerns I had about how his game would translate dating to his D+1 year).

Plenty of time left, though. Development isn't always linear.

 

[MysticLeviathan]

It could be an environment thing. Coming to NY could light a fire under his butt, or it can crush him. As Michael Kay would say, pressure could lead to something being crushed, and it can also create diamonds. Playing with NHL level talent could also make a big difference for him, give him confidence that his great plays will actually lead to goals. I'm curious what he'll do once he comes back to NA and how he adapts to the NA game.