Post-Game Talk: Vancouver will pick 5th in the 2017 NHL Draft | Pt 2

[CanaFan]

I no longer tank for a bottom 3 finish. It's the 4, 5 or 6 spot that I want to finish in from now on.

If you want 4 or 5 then it's still safest to finish 31st or 30th. Otherwise you could just as easily end up picking 7th like Arizona. It sucks we lost - that's the reality of the lottery - but we still stay in the top 5. That's better than not.

 

[Jack Burton]

If you want 4 or 5 then it's still safest to finish 31st or 30th. Otherwise you could just as easily end up picking 7th like Arizona. It sucks we lost - that's the reality of the lottery - but we still stay in the top 5. That's better than not.

Ya I know. I don't have the #'s but it sure seems like the 1,2 and 3 worst teams get screwed while the 4,5 and 6 seeds benefit the most in the lotto

 

[CanaFan]

Ya I know. I don't have the #'s but it sure seems like the 1,2 and 3 worst teams get screwed while the 4,5 and 6 seeds benefit the most in the lotto

Well in terms of probability the top 3 teams are both the most likely to win but also the most likely to get bumped at the same time.

Essentially when you are the last place team (i.e. Colorado) it is your odds vs every other team in the lottery. It doesn't matter who wins, if it isn't you then you get bumped.

On the other hand the 15th place team in the lottery (NY Islanders) have the lowest odds to move up but there are no teams that can bump them. So in that sense they are the "safest" team (can't lose) but also the least likely to pick high.

That's the double edged sword of being a bottom 3 team. You have the best odds but ultimately you face the most disappointment because your expectations start out so high (i.e. we "should" pick 1st) and you are in the position where the max number of teams can bump you down.

Nothing you can do except accept the risks and be ok with falling no worse than 4th.

 

[Blueangel1891]

We're going to add a very good complementary player to the ones we have already. This team is going to be bad for a few years, we'll add our superstar in the upcoming and much deeper drafts

Adding someone like Vilardi to Horvat, Boeser, Dahlen, Goldobin, Gaudette isn't that bad

 

[beachcomber]

The 2nd round pick will be the interesting one.

 

[serge2k]

The rules in and of themselves are not bad. The timing is bad for the Canucks though. We need to adjust and accumulate tons of picks. Unfortunately, I have little confidence in this management team's ability to do so.

Its funny when people talk about how unlucky this franchise is. That's definitely true, but recall the lockout year when we drafted 10th overall and Kopitar slid to us. Basically, our management is either unlucky or incompetent, and usually both.

No, they are ****ing awful.

Can we not bring out Kopitar considering the guy drafted instead first had a horrible ankle injury then died at 21.

 

[serge2k]

Tanking again next year won't do a thing for this team. We are not guaranteed a top 3 pick, look at the past 2 lotteries.

Finish like ****, outside the top 3.

Except that no matter how much fans go on about tanking the team is just this bad. They might do a bit better next year, but they are still ****ing awful. All this ****** lottery does is prevent them actually getting an impact player who can improve the team.

 

[go comets]

I think the best solution is the following.

more playoff teams. I was against this idea for a long time but with expansion (32 teams soon) i think its needed. Set it up so 10 teams make the playoffs in each conference with 6 auto berths and 4 wild cards. The wild cards duke it out in a best of 3. You could even allow the highest rated wild card team to pick its opponent for added entertainment. Not only would this fix the "no man's land attitude" of finishing 12-15 but it would also finally give an advantage (and some incentive) to the top teams in the conference who get to face banged up/ bruised opponents after the wild card round.

If you only have 11 or 12 teams in the lottery it makes it more likely a team in need of talent is going to get it which is the point of a draft.

Hold lotteries for the top 2 spots (team cant drop more than 2 places). Set the odds like this when Seattle/quebec city is added

1.)25%
2.)20%
3.)15%
4.)10%
5.)10%
6.)5%
7.)5%
8.)2.5%
9.)2.5%
10.)2%
11.)2%
12.)1%

This would make sure that 60% of the time a team in the top 3 would win first pick and 80% of a time for a team in the top 5. Teams outside the top 5 could still move up from time to time but the bad teams would generally be awarded the best players.

I just don't think you can do a lottery with so many teams unless you give the teams in the 10-15 range the a 1% chance like the NBA does. If the nhl continues to expand into questionable markets you can't leave this lottery the same. It's just going to kill franchises that need the help.

Your hired.....

 

[valkynax]

Tanking again next year won't do a thing for this team. We are not guaranteed a top 3 pick, look at the past 2 lotteries.

Finish like ****, outside the top 3.

First, the team isn't going anywhere but the bottom

Second, two failed tries and you stop trying? By that logic the team should just be sold off to Seattle because we tried so many times and never won a cup. There're only two ways to obtain franchise talent, either you get it by trade or you get it by draft. Obviously we can't expect this putridly incompetent management to trade for anything worth jack****, which leaves us with only one option, which is draft.

 

[PM]

Between this and Tryamkin leaving this offseason is off to an absolutely brutal start. To those saying this proves we shouldn't tank (which is incredibly stupid but beside the point) what would you have us do now? This team has been a bottom 3 team two years in a row and our best players are nearing retirement. I mean yeah it would be fantastic if we could fleece some morons out there for a Seguin-like trade but the chances of that happening are smaller than us winning the 1st overall pick the next three years in a row.

It would be great if we could sign the best free agents available to non-crippling deals but that is extremely unlikely to happen too, and we are close to the cap. So what else do you suggest to avoid "tanking" at this point?

 

[vanarchy]

Tanking for 12-14ish place is the only logical answer.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

First, the team isn't going anywhere but the bottom

Second, two failed tries and you stop trying? By that logic the team should just be sold off to Seattle because we tried so many times and never won a cup. There're only two ways to obtain franchise talent, either you get it by trade or you get it by draft. Obviously we can't expect this putridly incompetent management to trade for anything worth jack****, which leaves us with only one option, which is draft.

Which is now pretty much guaranteed to never happen. We now get to draft comfortably in the 4-6 range and watch franchise-saving talent go to better teams who are allowed to be lucky enough to snag those 1-3 spots.

And it's just simply never going to be us.

 

[rune74]

Which is now pretty much guaranteed to never happen. We now get to draft comfortably in the 4-6 range and watch franchise-saving talent go to better teams who are allowed to be lucky enough to snag those 1-3 spots.

And it's just simply never going to be us.

Makes you wonder what's the point?

You suck bad enough and you still don't get a good draft pick....just enough to push you out of that good draft pick area.

 

[CanaFan]

Which is now pretty much guaranteed to never happen. We now get to draft comfortably in the 4-6 range and watch franchise-saving talent go to better teams who are allowed to be lucky enough to snag those 1-3 spots.

And it's just simply never going to be us.

Uh, it's actually quite a ways away from "guaranteed to never happen".

Yes the results of the last two lotteries suck, but that doesn't mean we'll never win it. It is still FAR more probable to win from 1-3 than from 13-15. Philadelphia winning this time round doesn't change that. You're using emotion to judge probabilities. Far better to just look at the numbers on paper as they don't lie.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Uh, it's actually quite a ways away from "guaranteed to never happen".

Yes the results of the last two lotteries suck, but that doesn't mean we'll never win it. It is still FAR more probable to win from 1-3 than from 13-15. Philadelphia winning this time round doesn't change that. You're using emotion to judge probabilities. Far better to just look at the numbers on paper as they don't lie.

I'm using experience to judge the probability. If it were ever purely about luck, the Canucks would've had something that depends on luck turn out in their favour. It's not. I just don't think that this team will ever be allowed to get dominant again. For a brief time, the team was just that good...and everyone and their dog hated it. Too many people want too badly for this team to be terrible.

And yeah, I don't see the point anymore.

 

[tantalum]

I find it interesting that people complained loudly about changing things because of the Oilers getting win after win and high pick after high pick. Now that it's changed to be a much less of a guarantee to get that pick for tanking people complain and want it to go back the other way. I'm glad the way it turned out. To have Dallas and philly get a high pick is exactly what nearly everyone was clammoring for not so long ago. Which is perfect.

And it doesn't bail Benning and Linden out.... as much as I would have liked to have a top 2 in this draft (and I would have loved it) the best outcome for the franchise long term is to get rid of those two at top. Call it a silver lining of suck.

 

[Slapshot_11]

I find it interesting that people complained loudly about changing things because of the Oilers getting win after win and high pick after high pick. Now that it's changed to be a much less of a guarantee to get that pick for tanking people complain and want it to go back the other way. I'm glad the way it turned out. To have Dallas and philly get a high pick is exactly what nearly everyone was clammoring for not so long ago. Which is perfect.

And it doesn't bail Benning and Linden out.... as much as I would have liked to have a top 2 in this draft the best outcome for the franchise long term is to get rid of those two at top.

who the **** wanted that?

theres a better way to make sure teams dont always get first then the way is now

 

[VanJack]

It's interesting....arguably the best Canuck forward prospect is Boeser, who was drafted 23rd overall, and the best d-prospects other than Juolevi were Tryamking (third round) and Stecher (undrafted).

Unless you land the first overall pick in a draft with Matthews or McDavid in it, the first round is overrated.....the really successful teams find the later-round gems.

 

[MS]

I find it interesting that people complained loudly about changing things because of the Oilers getting win after win and high pick after high pick. Now that it's changed to be a much less of a guarantee to get that pick for tanking people complain and want it to go back the other way. I'm glad the way it turned out. To have Dallas and philly get a high pick is exactly what nearly everyone was clammoring for not so long ago. Which is perfect.

And it doesn't bail Benning and Linden out.... as much as I would have liked to have a top 2 in this draft (and I would have loved it) the best outcome for the franchise long term is to get rid of those two at top. Call it a silver lining of suck.

Yeah.

When we were good, EVERYONE here was complaining about the lottery and how it was too weighted and it was ridiculous how Edmonton got the top pick every year.

Now they've changed it a bit and we suck and all the same people are complaining that it isn't weighted enough and boo hoo we didn't get a free high pick for sucking.

As a hockey fan, I absolutely love how the lottery went because the whole notion of trying to lose and cheering for your team to lose makes me sick and is disgusting anti-fandom and it's satisfying to not see that mentality rewarded, even if it would have benefitted my team.

The lottery should be un-weighted even more so there is no incentive for a team to lose intentionally, ever.

 

[clay]

It's interesting....arguably the best Canuck forward prospect is Boeser, who was drafted 23rd overall, and the best d-prospects other than Juolevi were Tryamking (third round) and Stecher (undrafted).

Unless you land the first overall pick in a draft with Matthews or McDavid in it, the first round is overrated.....the really successful teams find the later-round gems.

This is due to our inept management, not due to high picks being a crapshoot. If we took the obvious choices in Nylander/Ehlers in 2014 and Tkachuk last year, the outlook for this franchise would be completely different.

 

[me2]

who the **** wanted that?

theres a better way to make sure teams dont always get first then the way is now

People are upset Buffalo went well in on McDavid with eichel as consolation at worst. People wanted that stopped, "we" got what "we" wanted. It was stupid because the teams that did it were either finished with that part of the draft and now the teams most likely to benefit from 3 lottery picks (ie Buffalo would love the 3 shots)

 

[me2]

If you want 4 or 5 then it's still safest to finish 31st or 30th. Otherwise you could just as easily end up picking 7th like Arizona. It sucks we lost - that's the reality of the lottery - but we still stay in the top 5. That's better than not.

People feel that have been robbed of 2nd, so the feel a sense of loss. 2nd was never ours is how I see it, I approach it as 5th was ours with a better shot at one of the 3 open/lottery picks. We didn't win the lottery so we just ended up staying put at 5th.

Of all the facts to get stay at 5th this one doesn't sting. I'd be more pissed if this was our lottery win, others get names like Crosby, Ovi, McDavid and Matthews, we'd get Patrick. I think I'm as happy at 5 as this year as 3 so winning the 3rd lottery would be a false victory - people would call us lottery winners and we wouldn't get anything from it.

 

[CanaFan]

I find it interesting that people complained loudly about changing things because of the Oilers getting win after win and high pick after high pick. Now that it's changed to be a much less of a guarantee to get that pick for tanking people complain and want it to go back the other way. I'm glad the way it turned out. To have Dallas and philly get a high pick is exactly what nearly everyone was clammoring for not so long ago. Which is perfect.

And it doesn't bail Benning and Linden out.... as much as I would have liked to have a top 2 in this draft (and I would have loved it) the best outcome for the franchise long term is to get rid of those two at top. Call it a silver lining of suck.

I'm not sure there is much similarity in what people where complaining about with a Edmonton and the situation here. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong but have we won 2 or 3 lotteries yet?

The complaint was about a team languishing for years in the high draft, getting top pick after top pick.

We've been here twice and have gotten exactly ... zero?

This is not the solution as it is a blanket punishment for every team that is at the bottom of the standings regardless of their motives, situation, or past history.

A more efficient solution would have been something akin to what was done in the 2005 lottery where teams that had drafted high in past drafts were "penalized" by having their odds weighted down.

Simply randomizing the top 3 isn't punishing repeat offenders, it is punishing anyone near the bottom.

It's using an axe when a scalpel is required.

 

[CanaFan]

Yeah.

When we were good, EVERYONE here was complaining about the lottery and how it was too weighted and it was ridiculous how Edmonton got the top pick every year.

Now they've changed it a bit and we suck and all the same people are complaining that it isn't weighted enough and boo hoo we didn't get a free high pick for sucking.

As a hockey fan, I absolutely love how the lottery went because the whole notion of trying to lose and cheering for your team to lose makes me sick and is disgusting anti-fandom and it's satisfying to not see that mentality rewarded, even if it would have benefitted my team.

The lottery should be un-weighted even more so there is no incentive for a team to lose intentionally, ever.

See my post. It's the wrong solution for the Edmonton problem.

 

[CanaFan]

People feel that have been robbed of 2nd, so the feel a sense of loss. 2nd was never ours is how I see it, I approach it as 5th was ours with a better shot at one of the 3 open/lottery picks. We didn't win the lottery so we just ended up staying put at 5th.

Of all the facts to get stay at 5th this one doesn't sting. I'd be more pissed if this was our lottery win, others get names like Crosby, Ovi, McDavid and Matthews, we'd get Patrick. I think I'm as happy at 5 as this year as 3 so winning the 3rd lottery would be a false victory - people would call us lottery winners and we wouldn't get anything from it.

Completely agree. There is a sense of "we finished 2nd last, we deserve 2nd". That is based on the fact that for 45 of this team's 47 year existence that is how the draft has worked. It is going to take some time to undo that expectation.

Even still, I view the value of finishing low more as limiting how far you can fall than your odds for winning the draw. Ya it didn't help us win the draw this year but it did keep us from falling further to 7th (Arizona) or 8th (Buffalo). I'd still rather be here than there. The better odds, in the long run, are also preferable even if in a single draw it may not be apparent.