Post-Game Talk: Vancouver will pick 5th in the 2017 NHL Draft | Pt 2

Dab

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Apr 17, 2017
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Chill out, every single one of the bottom 3 teams dropped to their worst position, so it's not like Canucks are alone on this island. It's called a lottery for a reason. You don't buy a Lotto 6/49 ticket and expect to win millions.

The silver lining is that after the top 2, the 3-7 selection is pretty similar. One of these is guaranteed to be a Canuck assuming Benning doesn't trade it away:

C 6'3 - Vilardi
C 6'2 - Glass <- my #2 choice
C 6'1 - Mittelstadt <- my #1 choice
RD 5'10 - Makar <- my #3 choice
LW 5'11 - Heiskanen

Anyone of these will easily become the top prospect in the organization and be ready in 2019.

Such a poor analogy. 82 games of terrible hockey to go to the lottery does not equal a 6/49 draw. I didn't just buy the ticket Wednesday, I bought it in October, 2016!
 

Bad News Benning

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Jan 11, 2003
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At this point it's either or.

It all depends on who those teams feel is the BPA.

Patrick/Nico go 1/2 in whatever order you want.

Now comes Dallas. They have holes everything. Same with Colorado. Depends kind of what they do with their roster. Are they moving Duchene? If so, they then take the best package, whatever it is, so it could be a forward coming back or D. Then they likely choose accordingly.

My only concern about Valardi is his speed. Canucks are a slower team, but that should change once the twins are done.

I'd be happy with Glass or Middlesteadt. Heiskanen, would be a solid pick too as he can play the right side on the blue line. Thinking long term as the team would have Stecher for sure long term. I don't want Gudbranson around long term. Hopefully Tryamkin returns in a year or so.

As for the lottery, it has to make teams not tank on purpose.

But, you also need to weight the lottery better.

In the old system, only the bottom 5 could get the top pick, as the most you could move up was 4 spots. So, the worst team had like a 48% chance of retaining the top pick.

2 options - keep everything the same as the old system, but change it so that whoever wins the lottery gets the top pick. So, worst team has a 25% chance of winning it, but a 75% chance of dropping to #2

Or second option, draw for the top 3 positions, but adjust the lottery percentages. I don't understand how the worst team drops from 24/25% down to 20% in this new lottery? It should be more heavily weighted if you are going to draw 3 spots.
I think the best solution is the following.

more playoff teams. I was against this idea for a long time but with expansion (32 teams soon) i think its needed. Set it up so 10 teams make the playoffs in each conference with 6 auto berths and 4 wild cards. The wild cards duke it out in a best of 3. You could even allow the highest rated wild card team to pick its opponent for added entertainment. Not only would this fix the "no man's land attitude" of finishing 12-15 but it would also finally give an advantage (and some incentive) to the top teams in the conference who get to face banged up/ bruised opponents after the wild card round.

If you only have 11 or 12 teams in the lottery it makes it more likely a team in need of talent is going to get it which is the point of a draft.

Hold lotteries for the top 2 spots (team cant drop more than 2 places). Set the odds like this when Seattle/quebec city is added

1.)25%
2.)20%
3.)15%
4.)10%
5.)10%
6.)5%
7.)5%
8.)2.5%
9.)2.5%
10.)2%
11.)2%
12.)1%

This would make sure that 60% of the time a team in the top 3 would win first pick and 80% of a time for a team in the top 5. Teams outside the top 5 could still move up from time to time but the bad teams would generally be awarded the best players.

I just don't think you can do a lottery with so many teams unless you give the teams in the 10-15 range the a 1% chance like the NBA does. If the nhl continues to expand into questionable markets you can't leave this lottery the same. It's just going to kill franchises that need the help.
 

Hodgy

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Feb 23, 2012
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The Leafs got very lucky as did Edmonton. I wouldn't really follow their paths, Canucks simply won't get a generational forward via the lottery.

The Leafs were lucky in their outcome, but their process was good. The Canucks were unlucky in their outcome but their process was terrible. Hard to compare the two.
 

Labamba

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Feb 26, 2013
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If we somehow manage to dump, LE, Sutter and trade Tanev for more futures, id be ok with anyone. If we keep all of the above and resign Miller. Suddenly this pick becomes everything. I'm not really sure what they mean by rebuild. Are they really going to blow things up? we need a large volume of futures so the law of averages start bearing fruit.
 

RobertKron

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Sep 1, 2007
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If we somehow manage to dump, LE, Sutter and trade Tanev for more futures, id be ok with anyone. If we keep all of the above and resign Miller. Suddenly this pick becomes everything. I'm not really sure what they mean by rebuild. Are they really going to blow things up? we need a large volume of futures so the law of averages start bearing fruit.

This is the big problem. By not hoarding picks and volume drafting, as has been done by the majority of successful rebuilding teams, they become more reliant on each pick hitting.

I'd imagine that what they mean by rebuild is pretty close to what it seems like when Linden says "okay, fine - we'll call it a rebuild if that'll make you happy. Harumph."

They likely think that their process has been good, if hampered by bad luck, and that the fans are just being impatient.

I've been pretty busy, so I could well have missed it, but I still haven't really seen them come out and state what they think has gone wrong, and how they'd like to change course moving forward.
 

M2Beezy

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Middlestat is out guys. Go read the prospects thread about him he wants to finish his 4 year college degree before signing in the NHL which means he will be 22 and can sign with whoever he wants. OUT

No way id draft him now not even at 32

Down to

Glass
Makar
Heisky
Vilardi
Necas
 

Labamba

Too Much 4 CDC
Feb 26, 2013
672
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Shuswap
This is the big problem. By not hoarding picks and volume drafting, as has been done by the majority of successful rebuilding teams, they become more reliant on each pick hitting.

I'd imagine that what they mean by rebuild is pretty close to what it seems like when Linden says "okay, fine - we'll call it a rebuild if that'll make you happy. Harumph."

They likely think that their process has been good, if hampered by bad luck, and that the fans are just being impatient.

I've been pretty busy, so I could well have missed it, but I still haven't really seen them come out and state what they think has gone wrong, and how they'd like to change course moving forward.

Sadly, there is a higher probability of us trading away futures to a team covering their losses at the expansion draft then there is of us dumping roster players for futures. Which would make that 5th an even bigger deal, if they don't trade it away for someone stupid like Evander Kane. Benning has also mentioned this possibility earlier on. Taking advantage of the expansion draft. Or more like the expansion draft taking advantage of him.
 

CanaFan

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Feb 19, 2010
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Middlestat is out guys. Go read the prospects thread about him he wants to finish his 4 year college degree before signing in the NHL which means he will be 22 and can sign with whoever he wants. OUT

No way id draft him now not even at 32

Down to

Glass
Makar
Heisky
Vilardi
Necas


No he has not.
 

timw33

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Let's not assume DAL/COL/whoever take D because their current D-core sucks. Smart teams don't draft for positional needs with high picks. Take the best player available and if needed in the future you deal from a position of strength to get a piece where you are weak. It's just smart asset management.

It's like the argument that Bourdon was a good pick because Jovo was getting old. There were people actually arguing that.

The sad truth is that our prospect pools are weak in multiple areas, including Centre and Defence, and luckily for us (caveat: because we're so weak) the players ranked in our zone are almost exclusively C and D. And please don't try to argue we have good prospect depth because of [a list of names of recently drafted prospects who aren't playing pro hockey yet].
 

thepuckmonster

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Oct 25, 2011
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No he has not.

Yeah I went in and it seems like an unfounded rumour.

The amount of high talent prospects who exercise that clause vs those who don't is minuscule. Not to mention I'm sure he wouldn't be ranked as high as he is by multiple scouting experts if that was even an inkling.

Hell, Shinkaruk and McCann fell from 10-15 to the 20s solely because they interviewed poorly. If there was any truth to Middelstadt saying that he would fall like a rock. In fact, he's done the opposite.
 

CanaFan

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Yeah I went in and it seems like an unfounded rumour.

The amount of high talent prospects who exercise that clause vs those who don't is minuscule.


Pretty much. It's also something no prospect would ever say publicly before the draft. But I shouldn't be surprised, college players are MtB's kryptonite.
 

thepuckmonster

Professional Winner.
Oct 25, 2011
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Hell even if Middelstadt hypothetically said that, you still draft him and spend the next 3-4 years courting him, showing him his place in the franchise, how big of a piece he can be. If he's easily the best talent at that spot that's a calculated risk that you'll probably win. We heard the same about Demko and Boeser and they both signed with relative ease. It's just such an overblown issue.

The biggest reason a lot of these NCAA guys leave is because their organizations haven't really paid attention to them until their last year or two.
 

VanJack

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Jul 11, 2014
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Yeah I went in and it seems like an unfounded rumour.

The amount of high talent prospects who exercise that clause vs those who don't is minuscule. Not to mention I'm sure he wouldn't be ranked as high as he is by multiple scouting experts if that was even an inkling.

Hell, Shinkaruk and McCann fell from 10-15 to the 20s solely because they interviewed poorly. If there was any truth to Middelstadt saying that he would fall like a rock. In fact, he's done the opposite.

Lol....those guys fell for a lot other reasons than how they interviewed.....size and defensive diligence were two of the biggest reasons.....and both got traded after basically two years in the Canuck organization.....it's a cautionary tale for guys like Goldobin and Dahlen, who were also traded by the teams that drafted them.
 

iFan

Registered User
May 5, 2013
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Hell even if Middelstadt hypothetically said that, you still draft him and spend the next 3-4 years courting him, showing him his place in the franchise, how big of a piece he can be. If he's easily the best talent at that spot that's a calculated risk that you'll probably win. We heard the same about Demko and Boeser and they both signed with relative ease. It's just such an overblown issue.

The biggest reason a lot of these NCAA guys leave is because their organizations haven't really paid attention to them until their last year or two.

Nah if Middelstadt says that you draft someone else. Focus needs to be on the team not courting a prospect. I don't think he'd bolt, Vancouver is a pretty nice place but I hope we take Vilardi.
 

vanarchy

May 3, 2013
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I'll just leave this here




Cale Makar, also known as The Med Hat Messiah

RtlTJZi.png
 

TruGr1t

Proper Villain
Jun 26, 2003
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I'd be tempted to take Glass over Middelstadt anyway, so if there's even a risk of that just take the sure thing. Hopeful Vilardi falls though.
 

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