i mean you made the comment in the context of tonight’s game, where they were down by two goals. I wouldn’t consider tonight a crazy early pull when you’re down by 2? Am I missing something?
what are these “massive score effects” in the last five minutes of a one goal game? Aren’t those explained by … playing 6v5?
I mean, score effects in 3rd periods of close games are very obvious as teams sit on leads/trailing team presses to tie. And the closer to the end of the game, the more pronounced they get.
I have no idea what the actual numbers are. But if - hypothetically - the trailing team is scoring the next goal 55% of the time from 5 minutes remaining to 3 minutes remaining and scores in a 10-second segment 5% more often in that period than when looking at the game as a whole ... that's a massive difference from the study I linked and would totally change the results.
Again - I don't know what the optimal time is. Absolutely it may be later than general wisdom indicates. And when someone puts out a study that seems to make sense and take into account the correct variables, great. But when I'm looking at studies that are obviously rubbish, I'm going to question their conclusions.
Didn't we pull with over 3 and a half minutes left last night? That's early to me, even with a two-goal deficit.