Post-Game Talk: Vancouver Canucks vs. St. Louis Blues | 7:00PM PST | SNET

[wonton15]

Could we not have used Petan/Digiuseppe?

Makes very little sense to me why we haven't even tried Petan and to an extent PDG this year.

 

[Melvin]

I hate early goalie pulls and I’m not convinced the math used to support them is correct.

 

[MS]

The most quoted study I’ve seen that suggested pulling the goalie with 6 minutes left was optimal was absolute junk created by mathematicians who didn’t understand hockey.

Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications by Clifford S. Asness, Aaron Brown :: SSRN

As a result, they used all entire NHL games as their sample for comparison (see page 2 of attached link). And that doesn’t work. NHL games are absolutely tilted toward the trailing team with massive score effects in effect in the last 5 minutes, and that should have been the basis for comparison.

They were basically comparing scoring next with the goalie pulled late to … scoring next in a 0-0 game in the first period, which is not even remotely the same scenario as scoring next trailing 2-1 with <5 minutes left and all of the play already in the defensive zone of the leading team.

But people absolutely ate it up.

If I see a better study using better math that shows that pulling the goalie early is a good idea, I’m all ears. But the study that most people are basing their viewpoints on absolutely sucks. It isn’t comparing the appropriate numbers from the appropriate situations to get a meaningful result.

 

[RebuildinVan]

He just looks so damned small, especially compared to Husso...

He is about the same size as Saros who seems to be working out just fine in Nashville.

 

[Melvin]

The most quoted study I’ve seen that suggested pulling the goalie with 6 minutes left was optimal was absolute junk created by mathematicians who didn’t understand hockey.

Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications by Clifford S. Asness, Aaron Brown :: SSRN

As a result, they used all entire NHL games as their sample for comparison (see page 2 of attached link). And that doesn’t work. NHL games are absolutely tilted toward the trailing team with massive score effects in effect in the last 5 minutes, and that should have been the basis for comparison.

They were basically comparing scoring next with the goalie pulled late to … scoring next in a 0-0 game in the first period, which is not even remotely the same scenario as scoring next trailing 2-1 with <5 minutes left and all of the play already in the defensive zone of the leading team.

But people absolutely ate it up.

If I see a better study using better math that shows that pulling the goalie early is a good idea, I’m all ears. But the study that most people are basing their viewpoints on absolutely sucks. It isn’t comparing the appropriate numbers from the appropriate situations to get a meaningful result.

This is like one of the most heavily researched topics in hockey.

that article alone cites seven preceding articles on the topic, and outright states that the idea of pulling the goalie earlier than tradition is not a new concept.

Absolutely nobody cites the “six minutes” from that article, but general consensus is something between 1:30-3:00 when down by 1, 3:00-5:00 when down by 2 (replacing the goalie after scoring.) Early pulls always means something like earlier than the traditional time of 1 minute, not 6 minutes, come on.

too, coaches have been doing early pulls (usually defined as earlier than 1:30 or so) long enough now that we can look at if teams that do so are winning game more often, and I believe there has been an increased winning percentage there.

In any case, having a problem with one study that is the most extreme (6 minutes) is very different from being against “early pulls” in general (again, usually defined as 1:30 or 2:00)

edit: here is a more recent look at actual goalie pull times by season. The two things I think are noteable are:

1) teams have been more successful in recent years, where the trailing team wins or gets the game to OT about 15% of the time over the past 3 years as early pulls have been more common, compared to 10% or so in the years prior to 2017.

2) when looking at successful vs unsuccessful attempts, by year, the successful attempts consistently have a higher pull average than the unsuccessful attempts, every season.

there was another article on TSN or Sportsnet that showed something similar empirically, teams pulling before 1:30 were winning like 15% and teams pulling after the 1:30 mark were at like 10%. But that was awhile ago and I can’t find it now. Probably worth revisiting.

frankly it would have been surprising if the arbitrary traditional time of “1 minute” turned out to be optimal. It’s not surprising that we’ve been able to refine it some.

 

[John Belushi]

Poor Mikey has been dealing with Benning's mismanagement first hand and its clearly affected his development.. from the shelling early on in his career by San Jose (he was an emergency callup if I recall) to being shelved on the taxi squad almost rhe entire year last year.

By all accounts a studious and hard working individual who got screwed during his formulative years as a goaltender.

Here's hoping he recovers and becomes a good pro because no one deserves the cards dealt to him by Dim Jim.

 

[F A N]

He is about the same size as Saros who seems to be working out just fine in Nashville.

It did take a long time for Saros to get to where he is now.

Saros doesn’t look any bigger than Dipietro so I think Dipietro is fine. But Saros’ ability to track the puck, control rebounds and his body movements, situational awareness, etc. combined with his athleticism helps him overcome his lack of size.

From the looks of it, Dipietro could stay on his feet just a tad longer since once he goes down the upper net gets exposed.

 

[MS]

This is like one of the most heavily researched topics in hockey.

that article alone cites seven preceding articles on the topic, and outright states that the idea of pulling the goalie earlier than tradition is not a new concept.

Absolutely nobody cites the “six minutes” from that article, but general consensus is something between 1:30-3:00 when down by 1, 3:00-5:00 when down by 2 (replacing the goalie after scoring.) Early pulls always means something like earlier than the traditional time of 1 minute, not 6 minutes, come on.

too, coaches have been doing early pulls (usually defined as earlier than 1:30 or so) long enough now that we can look at if teams that do so are winning game more often, and I believe there has been an increased winning percentage there.

In any case, having a problem with one study that is the most extreme (6 minutes) is very different from being against “early pulls” in general (again, usually defined as 1:30 or 2:00)

Show me a study that correctly applies score effects into the calculations.

I don’t care if there are lots of earlier studies if they’re all making the same mistakes (or different mistakes). And a quick look tells me that yes they appear to be making the same mistakes.

I picked this study because it was recent and widely-cited (it’s definitely the one I’ve seen most) … and it’s really bad.

Like I said, I’m open to the idea that earlier pulls are good. But I want to see a good study based on good logic and good math before I believe it. And based on seeing stuff like what I linked being presented as evidence … I’m dubious.

I also don’t consider 1:30 an early pull. I’m referring to the 3+ minutes stuff.

 

[Melvin]

Show me a study that correctly applies score effects into the calculations.

I don’t care if there are lots of earlier studies if they’re all making the same mistakes (or different mistakes). And a quick look tells me that yes they appear to be making the same mistakes.

I picked this study because it was recent and widely-cited (it’s definitely the one I’ve seen most) … and it’s really bad.

Like I said, I’m open to the idea that earlier pulls are good. But I want to see a good study based on good logic and good math before I believe it. And based on seeing stuff like what I linked being presented as evidence … I’m dubious.

I also don’t consider 1:30 an early pull. I’m referring to the 3+ minutes stuff.

i mean you made the comment in the context of tonight’s game, where they were down by two goals. I wouldn’t consider tonight a crazy early pull when you’re down by 2? Am I missing something?


what are these “massive score effects” in the last five minutes of a one goal game? Aren’t those explained by … playing 6v5?

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Every time EP has the puck, even on the PP, he just skates directly into 2 opposing players to turn it over too. He is double covering himself.... hockey IQ has gone to shit.

 

[AzNightmare]

I could be jumping the gun (probably am), but I'm really not convinced DiPietro is the goalie of the future for Canucks.
He looks really shaky, like his foundation seems off, something I don't expect to see from a pro. He's overcommitting on rebounds which is why he gets into those athletic, but all-in positions that leaves him so vulnerable. I think he needs to completely change how he plays if he wants to make it. He seems to be struggling in AHL as well.
Maybe he'll be a late bloomer, he's still relatively young for goalie, but I find it hard to believe there isn't other goalies in the system that wouldn't be higher than him on the depth chart.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Guest here.

I know that not many Canucks fans like me (or is it just the few who do not), due to reasons no need to mention here but...

What is Podkolzin's current role?
What does Podkolzin bring to each game, what is his stuff?, so to speak
Why he plays in the NHL, instead of the AHL?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

I could be jumping the gun (probably am), but I'm really not convinced DiPietro is the goalie of the future for Canucks.
He looks really shaky, like his foundation seems off, something I don't expect to see from a pro. He's overcommitting on rebounds which is why he gets into those athletic, but all-in positions that leaves him so vulnerable. I think he needs to completely change how he plays if he wants to make it. He seems to be struggling in AHL as well.
Maybe he'll be a late bloomer, he's still relatively young for goalie, but I find it hard to believe there isn't other goalies in the system that wouldn't be higher than him on the depth chart.

i wonder if he gets to work much, if at all, with ian clark

who works with our AHL goalies? is it still clouts?

 

[Diversification]

Guest here.

I know that not many Canucks fans like me (or is it just the few who do not), due to reasons no need to mention here but...

What is Podkolzin's current role?
What does Podkolzin bring to each game, what is his stuff?, so to speak
Why he plays in the NHL, instead of the AHL?

He's a middle 6 winger, provides a forecheck, strong on the puck, defensively very responsible for a rookie. Surprisingly good shot. He's shown chemistry with JT Miller, Garland, Hoglander and Pettersson. Given the way he plays the game, it's not surprising.

He definitely has an NHL level game. That's why he's in the lineup.

 

[bandwagonesque]

That was one of my favourite games of the year, mainly because it’s still weird to see a team that works this hard after the last couple of seasons.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

He's a middle 6 winger, provides a forecheck, strong on the puck, defensively very responsible for a rookie. Surprisingly good shot. He's shown chemistry with JT Miller, Garland, Hoglander and Pettersson. Given the way he plays the game, it's not surprising.

He definitely has an NHL level game. That's why he's in the lineup.

Thank you from the information.

At the moment of his career, he can't produce much however, does that concern many Canucks fans?
Total 168 career pro games so far, 35 goals, 32 assists, 67 points, that's 0.39 ppg.
(VHL+KHL+NHL)

In the VHL he was about 0.50 ppg player
KHL 0.28 ppg
NHL 0.26 ppg

Not very impressive production
How many believe the production will increase
as he develops more?

 

[rypper]

i wonder if he gets to work much, if at all, with ian clark

who works with our AHL goalies? is it still clouts?

Curtis Sanford is the goalie coach in Abby. Cloutier isn't with the organization anymore.

 

[mathonwy]

Every time EP has the puck, even on the PP, he just skates directly into 2 opposing players to turn it over too. He is double covering himself.... hockey IQ has gone to shit.

Ep40 usually has two guys covering him.

They on him like stink on a monkey and seems to be suffering a similar can’t get separation issue as Boeser.

Regardless. His defense has been pretty stellar. He reads and intercepts cycles really well.

 

[VanJack]

Can't fault the effort in this one....they actually controlled large stretches of this game five-on-five, but no finish. Hardly surprising with the lineup they were icing. Dickinson was in alone with the score 1-0 Canucks; and later in the game was eyeball-to-eyeball with Husso, but hands of stone. And of course the pp went 0-4.

Canucks needed their best players to step up, and they tried. Boeser with eight shots on goal and Pettersson with another half dozen. But they either missed the net or hit the goalie in the crest.

They have to start getting the regulars back or this season could slip away again.

 

[Regress2TheMeme]

It was an effort that deserved a win. It was really unlucky to have to face a hot goalie on a night where you are playing your 4th or 5th string goalie.

Biggest disappointment for me was Boeser. He got plenty of looks on a night where we needed some finish but he wasn't on.

If only Hoglander and Dickenson could muster a little finish.

 

[Diversification]

Thank you from the information.

At the moment of his career, he can't produce much however, does that concern many Canucks fans?
Total 168 career pro games so far, 35 goals, 32 assists, 67 points, that's 0.39 ppg.
(VHL+KHL+NHL)

In the VHL he was about 0.50 ppg player
KHL 0.28 ppg
NHL 0.26 ppg

Not very impressive production
How many believe the production will increase
as he develops more?

I think that depends on prior expectations. Many on this board accept the likelihood that Pod tops out as a complementary top 6 forward - someone who doesn't anchor a line, but makes a skill line that much better. That seems to be how he's tracking. So, at least from my perspective, no real concerns. He's having a good rookie season that's in line with expectations. And if you can get a complementary top 6 piece from 10OA, that's decent value, especially when you already have top 6 play driving pieces in place.

 

[iceburg]

DiPietro is one of those guys that you want to see succeed. He clearly has a huge amount of try. At this stage, however, I don't think he can be projected to fill more than a third position in the organization. He's not the biggest guy and he plays small. There is so much room up top and, unlikely Demko-like goalies, he isn't long. The second and third goals last night demonstrate this. He works so hard but if he isn't able to play bigger, he will be mostly an AHL goalie.

 

[StreetHawk]

DiPietro is one of those guys that you want to see succeed. He clearly has a huge amount of try. At this stage, however, I don't think he can be projected to fill more than a third position in the organization. He's not the biggest guy and he plays small. There is so much room up top and, unlikely Demko-like goalies, he isn't long. The second and third goals last night demonstrate this. He works so hard but if he isn't able to play bigger, he will be mostly an AHL goalie.

He is a smaller goalie so Clark has to account for that in working with Mike. Demko, Silovs, and the Finnish kid are all big guys. So they can be taught the same style. Mike can’t.
i would imagine that Saros doesn’t play the same style that 6’5 Rinne played.

 

[iceburg]

He is a smaller goalie so Clark has to account for that in working with Mike. Demko, Silovs, and the Finnish kid are all big guys. So they can be taught the same style. Mike can’t.
i would imagine that Saros doesn’t play the same style that 6’5 Rinne played.

Agreed. MP plays a very compact style. Problem is that it opens up the top of the net. He needs to learn to play more upright when in the butterfly. Ironically it seems that it's his high level of intensity that causes him to make himself small. He's a classic reaction goalie.

 

[God]

Seems like DiPietro would've been lights out as a goalie in the 80s. Born in the wrong time.