[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[I am toxic]

Who said that? The Canucks were in the hunt last year until Edler got hurt and the team fell apart. You don't think our young core will get better over the next two years? You think that Miller will be the only addition to the team? Come on.

I know!

Injuries! To Edler of all people!

Who could have known!

 

[I am toxic]

If they make the playoffs in the next two years the pick will be 16 or later. I believe they will make the playoffs in the next two years therefore I believe the pick will be in the 16+ range.

What if global warming causes a Day After Tomorrow like catastrophe and the NHL ceases to exist? Then what huh? Your fancy draft picks going to save you then? Good logic!

I take it all back.

Global warming! We won the trade! Stuff that in your pipe, Tampa!

 

[SillyRabbit]

I’m actually dead at how the Simpsons manages to predict everything, even the negotiation between Brisebois and Benning.

 

[elitepete]

And when Benning is fired will the next guy be any improvement?

Couldn’t be any worse.

Like.... it would be really, REALLY f***ing difficult to be worse. Seriously.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I’m actually dead at how the Simpsons manages to predict everything, even the negotiation between Brisebois and Benning.

No wonder they (Brough/Halford) cant get any good guests on their show?

 

[SillyRabbit]

No wonder they (Brough/Halford) cant get any good guests on their show?

Yes they should pretend Benning is a genius so he will agree to appear on their show and spew some nonsense about how we’re primed for a playoff run and just need the final piece that is Tyler Myers.

Because we definitely need more spineless media members who lob softball questions and defend incompetent management instead of practicing real journalism and calling it like they see it.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Yes they should pretend Benning is a genius so he will agree to appear on their show and spew some nonsense about how we’re primed for a playoff run and just need the final piece that is Tyler Myers.

Because we definitely need more spineless media members who lob softball questions and defend incompetent management instead of practicing real journalism and calling it like they see it.

A Simpsons clip ?, thats what you would expect from the average poster on reddit,CDC,or here.

Theres way too many journalists now, and some think playing the 'bad cop' will get them more clickbait.

It's getting pretty tired.

 

[me2]

It won’t be top 3. With the young core the team has assembled I’d be shocked if they don’t make the playoffs two years from now. The reality is they traded a pick in the 20-25 range. A steep price and I get the hate but it’s not going to be a top 5 pick. No ****ing way

All you need is to miss the playoffs by 1 point and it could be a top 3 pick. This team is quite capable of that, this year or next.

 

[F A N]

Trading future #1 picks when you’re currently a non-playoff lottery team is indefensible. Period. It is the single stupidest, more reckless, most irresponsible thing a GM can do.

We literally just saw what can happen here with Ottawa’s Duchene trade disaster. We’ve seen this before when we gave away #3 overall in the Barry Pederson deal thinking there was no way we’d ever miss the playoffs with Pederson.

Again, if we’d picked up pick #23 in the 2019 draft somehow in a previous transaction and traded that for Miller, fine. But you simply do not trade away future #1 picks when you’re a lottery team that went 22-36 in regulation in the previous season.

If a friend offers you $1000 to play Russian Roulette, the 80% chance you could win and buy 2 plane tickets to Mexico isn’t worth the 20% chance of blowing your brains out. There’s probably a better than 50/50 chance this trade turns out ok. But that doesn’t mean it’s with taking the substantial chance we end up in the position Ottawa was just in.

I think your Ottawa example counteracts your point. Ottawa drafted 28th the summer before they made the Duchene deal.

I do think trading future first round picks at this time is risky. It's not even a predictably great deal. Fair or good deal with the risk of disaster is what this really is. So is this a good deal? If Canucks make the playoffs with Miller proving to be a top 6 fit and produces at his old 20+ goal 55+ level I would think so. If not, this has the potential to be a terrible deal. The way I look at is that the Canucks are making a push and moves are made toward that end.

I suppose the other way to look at it is what's the value of cap space? Kevin Hayes just got a 7 year $7.142M AAV with all sorts of trade protections.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I think your Ottawa example counteracts your point. Ottawa drafted 28th the summer before they made the Duchene deal.

I do think trading future first round picks at this time is risky. It's not even a predictably great deal. Fair or good deal with the risk of disaster is what this really is. So is this a good deal? If Canucks make the playoffs with Miller proving to be a top 6 fit and produces at his old 20+ goal 55+ level I would think so. If not, this has the potential to be a terrible deal. The way I look at is that the Canucks are making a push and moves are made toward that end.

I suppose the other way to look at it is what's the value of cap space? Kevin Hayes just got a 7 year $7.142M AAV with all sorts of trade protections.

This is not the going price for someone like JT Miller.

Thats all you need to know to decide wether it is a good deal or bad deal.

Need more?

- Tampa fans cant believe what they got for him.
- Only two players the past two years commanded a 1st round pick AT THE TRADE DEADLINE
- Tampa was in a cap crunch and they HAD to make a trade, we still overpaid to get Miller

 

[Bobby Digital]

Has anyone asked Benning why there wasn't any protection on the 2021 pick? At least top 5 protection?

Benning bros seem to think there's no way we don't make the playoffs in 2021. Yet don't take into account we very well could be a decent team who suffers a few big injuries that ultimately leads to a much worse finish than expected. You'd think some risk management would be taken with one of the most valuable assets this team has (1st round pick) but I guess that would be too much to ask from Kevin..... I mean Jim.

 

[LightningStrikes]

The trade itself aside for a moment, I'll try to fill y'all in on Miller from a Lightning fan's perspective:

He came to Tampa Bay with a certain reputation from his NYR days: Young player with good size and hands but a questionable work ethic and terrible decisionmaking at times. He earned the nickname "Bozo" in New York for taking untimely and lazy penalties. After one and a half seasons in Tampa I can tell you that his work ethic got a lot better with us. Same goes for his bad penalties although it's still part of his game unfortunately. So maybe it was more a question of coaching and teammates. Remember, the Rangers weren't exactly a powerhouse at the time of the trade. More importantly though, he's consistently good for around 20 goals and 50 points per season and doesn't miss many games due to injury. Even with the lowly Rangers he produced at a 20G/50P pace. Another big plus is his faceoff prowess. I think he is listed as a center but played left wing with us almost entirely but on a line with Stamkos he was the one taking the draw instead of Stammer. Same for his time on our 3rd line.

He was always a reliable player for us and had good chemistry with almost every other player. He can play top line just as well as 4th line, although he excels with skilled players and that's where you guys should put him. We saw that in his first season with the Lightning, when he replaced Namestnikov on our first line with Stamkos and Kucherov. He went 9 goals and 18 points in those 19 games to finish the regular season and that line was arguably the best line in hockey at the time. Example:



Last season with Tampa was a bit different as he was the victim of our insane depth and some questionable line combos by coach Cooper. So although guys like Palat were obviously not on top of their game they got fed prime ice time and even 1st PP minutes while Miller sat on the bench and played with Paquette and Erne on our 4th line. So his overall production went down a bit. Many Lightning fans did not agree with this decision but what can ya do right?

With his size he is solid along the boards and in front of the net (did not get used there much in Tampa though) and can dish out absolutely punishing hits, although it's rare unfortunately:



His shot is tremendous, wish he had used it more with us honestly. The big shocker IMO is that he's still relatively young (age 26) with 8 seasons under his belt already so there's still room for improvement. His hands are soft, his reads are solid and he will make a tape-to-tape pass in traffic when everybody else is expecting him to shoot and vice versa. So get ready for the occasional pleasantly surprising "wow" play from him. He will disappear for some stretches though. But as I said, maybe he'll figure that one out.

His big big BIG minus is his playoff production though: In 61 career playoff games he has THREE goals (and 23 assists). That's what Rangers fans criticized the most. In Tampa he had 2 playoff goals in 21 playoff games, in NY 1 goal in 40. Yikes.

I think overall it's fair to say that Lightning fans aren't too happy that Miller isn't a part of our team anymore. From a salaray cap point of view we of course understand why the trade was made and in our eyes we got a solid return from you guys. But if guys like Palat, Killorn or even Johnson didn't have a full NTC or even NMC I'm not sure we would have parted ways with Miller.

Wish him and y'all the best!

 

[Wilch]

If a friend offers you $1000 to play Russian Roulette, the 80% chance you could win and buy 2 plane tickets to Mexico isn’t worth the 20% chance of blowing your brains out. There’s probably a better than 50/50 chance this trade turns out ok. But that doesn’t mean it’s with taking the substantial chance we end up in the position Ottawa was just in.

Except in this case, Jimbo gets the prize for winning the gamble and the fans and Jimbo's idiot trust fund baby boss gets their brains blown out if the gamble fails.

 

[passive voice]

Except in this case, Jimbo gets the prize for winning the gamble and the fans and Jimbo's idiot trust fund baby boss gets their brains blown out if the gamble fails.

Motherf***er, Jim Benning played us

 

[Bettman Returnz]

Let’s hope this is the last year we have to deal with the Benning circus. I am honestly embarrassed by him. We are the laughing stock of the league. Please, please get us a respected GM that doesn’t get taken advantage of!!!!

 

[ginner classic]

Let’s hope this is the last year we have to deal with the Benning circus. I am honestly embarrassed by him. We are the laughing stock of the league. Please, please get us a respected GM that doesn’t get taken advantage of!!!!

I don't know. There is some benefit to having a terrible GM. You can easily identify all the people you want to block on Twitter at the draft, on July 1 and at the deadline. I mean...my timeline gets cleaner by the minute. Same for HF Boards.

I'm blocking and ignoring. Only a few hundred million to go.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

When reactions are "Well if it doesn't work out, Benning won't be around anyway" is a constant reply, that's not a good trade.

I don't mind Miller. Think he's a decent addition.

I have a big problem in the price paid. Benning has no negotiating skills at all; zero.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

The trade itself aside for a moment, I'll try to fill y'all in on Miller from a Lightning fan's perspective:

He came to Tampa Bay with a certain reputation from his NYR days: Young player with good size and hands but a questionable work ethic and terrible decisionmaking at times. He earned the nickname "Bozo" in New York for taking untimely and lazy penalties. After one and a half seasons in Tampa I can tell you that his work ethic got a lot better with us. Same goes for his bad penalties although it's still part of his game unfortunately. So maybe it was more a question of coaching and teammates. Remember, the Rangers weren't exactly a powerhouse at the time of the trade. More importantly though, he's consistently good for around 20 goals and 50 points per season and doesn't miss many games due to injury. Even with the lowly Rangers he produced at a 20G/50P pace. Another big plus is his faceoff prowess. I think he is listed as a center but played left wing with us almost entirely but on a line with Stamkos he was the one taking the draw instead of Stammer. Same for his time on our 3rd line.

He was always a reliable player for us and had good chemistry with almost every other player. He can play top line just as well as 4th line, although he excels with skilled players and that's where you guys should put him. We saw that in his first season with the Lightning, when he replaced Namestnikov on our first line with Stamkos and Kucherov. He went 9 goals and 18 points in those 19 games to finish the regular season and that line was arguably the best line in hockey at the time. Example:



Last season with Tampa was a bit different as he was the victim of our insane depth and some questionable line combos by coach Cooper. So although guys like Palat were obviously not on top of their game they got fed prime ice time and even 1st PP minutes while Miller sat on the bench and played with Paquette and Erne on our 4th line. So his overall production went down a bit. Many Lightning fans did not agree with this decision but what can ya do right?

With his size he is solid along the boards and in front of the net (did not get used there much in Tampa though) and can dish out absolutely punishing hits, although it's rare unfortunately:



His shot is tremendous, wish he had used it more with us honestly. The big shocker IMO is that he's still relatively young (age 26) with 8 seasons under his belt already so there's still room for improvement. His hands are soft, his reads are solid and he will make a tape-to-tape pass in traffic when everybody else is expecting him to shoot and vice versa. So get ready for the occasional pleasantly surprising "wow" play from him. He will disappear for some stretches though. But as I said, maybe he'll figure that one out.

His big big BIG minus is his playoff production though: In 61 career playoff games he has THREE goals (and 23 assists). That's what Rangers fans criticized the most. In Tampa he had 2 playoff goals in 21 playoff games, in NY 1 goal in 40. Yikes.

I think overall it's fair to say that Lightning fans aren't too happy that Miller isn't a part of our team anymore. From a salaray cap point of view we of course understand why the trade was made and in our eyes we got a solid return from you guys. But if guys like Palat, Killorn or even Johnson didn't have a full NTC or even NMC I'm not sure we would have parted ways with Miller.

Wish him and y'all the best!

I think Canuck fans generally like Miller... problem is the cost and the fact the team isn't really close to being a contender.

 

[Hit the post]

Except in this case, Jimbo gets the prize for winning the gamble and the fans and Jimbo's idiot trust fund baby boss gets their brains blown out if the gamble fails.

I’m more scared there’s a Jimbo Junior waiting to be hired as an executive with the club.

 

[tyhee]

I am not, but I don't think it is anything close to horrendous or indefensible. If you believe it to be those things then engage me on my points where I've outlined why it isn't instead of constantly going after the low hanging fruit.

Cheers. It's good for us to see you back posting after it looked you might be gone for a long while.

I do consider the trade horrendous and indefensible. You've alluded to the main part of my reason for that in some of your early posts on the trade, where you indicated (I haven't gone back to see your exact words) that it depends on where you think the team is.

The other part of my reason is closely related to that and it is a consideration of team goals. I'll try to clarify both below, but first note it isn't so much about the value. While I'm horrified about the possibility of Tampa getting a high pick in 2021 that should belong to the Canucks, other than that for the right team I think the value only slightly too high.

I think though that the highest bidder for Miller's contract should not have been a rebuilding team. It didn't have to be a good team, but it should have been a team either in a position to contend or which already had a solid core of young players. The Canucks core of good young players is imo too small to fit that latter category. That's no slight on Pettersson, Boeser or Hughes. This problem as I see it is that there aren't more Demkos and Gaudettes behind them.

A very few star-level young players without a solid group behind them isn't sufficient to have a team contend over a period of years. I don't think the future looks bright at this stage.

I understand those that want to "go for it" before Bo starts to decline and while Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes are still young, but in my view the results of Benning's efforts will end up somewhere between becoming a team that might last to the second round of the playoffs on the high side and being a slightly better non-playoff team on the low side.

What is given up in going for it now is of course in the future. Whomever the Canucks would get with the picks given up won't be available to the Canucks for at least two years and after that could be anywhere in the range of bust to superstar.

I'd rather have a chance at players who might help the team for several years while they may be contending than the known quantity of a medium-high salaried player who rates to be good while the team's upside is to make the playoffs.

Of course, Benning doesn't have the luxury of thinking that way. Right now his job appears to be on the line and if he doesn't make the playoffs next season he's unemployed. He's had his chance to build and it is show-me time. By the standards of the position Benning is in, this trade is fine.

I think though that putting a general manager in the position where his goals are not identical to the long-term health of the team inevitably leads to moves that aren't to the long-term benefit of the team. Any move that makes the Canucks a little better now and removes some of the chances to be much better 5-10 years from now is not a move I consider to be in the interest of the long-term health of the franchise.

Those whose main goal for the Canucks is to make the playoffs the next two or three seasons won't hate this trade. Those who want more and for longer should imo think it terrible. It's not so much value, it is the shifting of potential long-term future good to a shorter term present improvement to a level that isn't very high.

 

[drax0s]

If a friend offers you $1000 to play Russian Roulette, the 80% chance you could win and buy 2 plane tickets to Mexico isn’t worth the 20% chance of blowing your brains out. There’s probably a better than 50/50 chance this trade turns out ok. But that doesn’t mean it’s with taking the substantial chance we end up in the position Ottawa was just in.

This sums up my thoughts on the deal too. It's possible the Canucks get out of this paying a 18-20th overall pick and seemingly "no harm, no foul" and make the playoffs with the Pacific being so weak, sure. 25 year old Miller is probably worth about a late first and a contending team would likely pick him up for that. However if this blows up - it potentially blows up REALLY badly. I'd hate this deal a lot less if there was some sort of condition on the 2021 pick or if we could complete the trade with any first round pick (like something acquired via trade). A lot less chance it goes bad there. This is 100% Benning burning the boats and hoping for the best and knowing he won't survive to have to deal with any repercussions.

I almost think that if it *does* blow up, it almost guarantees we're automatically onto rebuild 2.0 under new management and trading everyone under 25.

 

[m9]

The more I think about it, the more this trade reminds me of the Otis Thorpe trade when the Grizzlies were here.

Grizzlies thought they were a player away and traded a future 1st for a him. Turns out they were still a bad team and almost gave away Lebron. Pistons botched the pick, but was close to a disaster.

 

[4Twenty]

I don't think there was a bidding war for Miller, I think Tampa phoned the mark, but I have no actual intel, just seems like the Gudbranson deal all over again.

 

[Hit the post]

I don't think there was a bidding war for Miller, I think Tampa phoned the mark, but I have no actual intel, just seems like the Gudbranson deal all over again.

Miller is a far better player than Guds ( who had a career high playing with a legit top 4 D carrying him). Still doesn’t make it hurt any the less.

 

[4Twenty]

Miller is a far better player than Guds ( who had a career high playing with a legit top 4 D carrying him). Still doesn’t make it hurt any the less.

I'm just comparing them by saying the other team phoned Benning shopping their player.