Confirmed with Link: [VAN/NJD] Canucks acquire 4th in '24 for F Curtis Lazar

[SeawaterOnIce]

Good move to move off a guy who had been a pretty big disappointment, and do it quickly.

Was terrible on the PK, brought nothing to the 4th line, and was upgraded on by Di Giuseppe. Surprised we were able to get a pick for him, honestly.

I feel bad for him as he signed here to be close to home and he seems like a really good guy, but at some point you have to perform.

Said this in the other thread but he was a product of the Boston system that has tended to make bottom 6 players look good

Joakim Nordstrom
Tim Schaller
Danton Heiner (has picked it up again)
Nick Ritchie

Seems like many of these players massively underperformed or regressed once they left Boston.

 

[DCantheDDad]

I wonder if we can just package up a few years worth of seconds to just completely corner the market on 4th round picks.

 

[Melvin]

I wasn’t a fan of the signing and was a bit confused why people were so high on him when he was waiverwire worthy like 5 years ago, so I’m surprised they were able to move him. Doesn’t really accomplish all that much but it’s nice to see them recognize a scouting error and correct it swiftly.

 

[PG Canuck]

Thank god

 

[Nucker101]

Great trade. Free lotto ticket/magic bean for a guy who was just sort of there but didn’t really make a difference on the ice most nights

 

[dez]

DRAFT PICK RECOVERED, REBUILD BACK ON!

 

[pitseleh]

Said this in the other thread but he was a product of the Boston system that has tended to make bottom 6 players look good

Joakim Nordstrom
Tim Schaller
Danton Heiner (has picked it up again)
Nick Ritchie

Seems like many of these players massively underperformed or regressed once they left Boston.

Having Bergeron soak up tough minutes helps make depth players look good, too.

 

[vancityoriginals]

DRAFT PICK RECOVERED, REBUILD BACK ON!

careful, we dont use the R word around here.

 

[JumpierPegasus]

Aman replaced him pretty easily in that 4C role. Super disappointing considering he came highly touted from Boston. Shocked he got a 4th

 

[vancityluongo]

Too bad the pick is 2024 and not this year, but eh, at least they got something.

 

[tantalum]

Had high hopes for Lazar to be a bit of fixture on the 4th line for a few years at low cost. He just wasn't any good in a canuck uniform.

Take the 4th and run.

 

[Vector]

Too bad the pick is 2024 and not this year, but eh, at least they got something.

I would actually be all for the Hronek trade if they just decided to acquire every 2023 4th round pick.

 

[vancityluongo]

I would actually be all for the Hronek trade if they just decided to acquire every 2023 4th round pick.

Absolutely.

Like if they can grab 3 4th round picks to replace the VAN 2nd... that suddenly makes our draft prospects look much, much better.

And if they've identified an arbitrage opportunity of dealing the high picks due to this draft being very overhyped, that's terrific. We know from years of data that there isn't that much of a gap in the expected value of a 2nd and a 4th.

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the thought process.

 

[timw33]

I am pleased to see the trend of management acknowledging when a trade or signing has not been a fit and moving on from them for value as soon as possible. This is the kind of basic asset management that should be expected from any competent management group, and of which we had seen zero acumen for in the previous 8 seasons of letting players values die on the vine or walk for absolutely nothing.

Freed up a contract spot is a nice bonus too.

 

[credulous]

Absolutely.

Like if they can grab 3 4th round picks to replace the VAN 2nd... that suddenly makes our draft prospects look much, much better.

And if they've identified an arbitrage opportunity of dealing the high picks due to this draft being very overhyped, that's terrific. We know from years of data that there isn't that much of a gap in the expected value of a 2nd and a 4th.

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the thought process.

a 2nd is worth more than 3 4ths. particular when it's in the top third of the draft. we're talking about pick 30-50 instead of picks 100-130

 

[pitseleh]

Absolutely.

Like if they can grab 3 4th round picks to replace the VAN 2nd... that suddenly makes our draft prospects look much, much better.

And if they've identified an arbitrage opportunity of dealing the high picks due to this draft being very overhyped, that's terrific. We know from years of data that there isn't that much of a gap in the expected value of a 2nd and a 4th.

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the thought process.

That’s the case for the second rounders contenders usually trade, but not the Canucks’ pick. You’d need 5-7 fourth rounders to equal a high second based on the values in most models.

 

[ziploc]

All your 4ths are belong to us!!!

 

[Vector]

a 2nd is worth more than 3 4ths. particular when it's in the top third of the draft. we're talking about pick 30-50 instead of picks 100-130

That’s the case for the second rounders contenders usually trade, but not the Canucks’ pick. You’d need 5-7 fourth rounders to equal a high second based on the values in most models.

To be clear, I just thought it'd be funny for the Canucks to pick 10 times in the 4th round.

All your 4ths are belong to us!!!

Exactly!

 

[vancityluongo]

a 2nd is worth more than 3 4ths. particular when it's in the top third of the draft. we're talking about pick 30-50 instead of picks 100-130

i usually use this chart from the Athletic as a reference

obviously none of these are going to be perfect or even necessarily good approximations, but if we assume the Canucks 2nd will be around 38 (2.2 GSVA), my "replacing the 2nd" calc is essentially one 4th between 104-108 (0.8), one between 109-114 (0.7) and another between 115-122 (0.6) - adding up to 2.1 GSVA.

And that's just on average - but if they really think for example, that the top end of the second round of this draft is weak but the fourth has more depth than usual - by all means, there is a theoretical play here. But I don't think that's how they're approaching it.

 

[God]

Pretty sure we can get Alex Turcotte for a 4th round pick.

 

[vancityluongo]

That’s the case for the second rounders contenders usually trade, but not the Canucks’ pick. You’d need 5-7 fourth rounders to equal a high second based on the values in most models.

For late 4ths that contenders would be trading, yeah that's true. Was considering an average range of 4th round picks, but you're right that we would probably only be getting those picks from teams like NJ that are picking near the bottom of the round.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Yay.

 

[credulous]

obviously none of these are going to be perfect or even necessarily good approximations, but if we assume the Canucks 2nd will be around 38 (2.2 GSVA), my "replacing the 2nd" calc is essentially one 4th between 104-108 (0.8), one between 109-114 (0.7) and another between 115-122 (0.6) - adding up to 2.1 GSVA.

And that's just on average - but if they really think for example, that the top end of the second round of this draft is weak but the fourth has more depth than usual - by all means, there is a theoretical play here. But I don't think that's how they're approaching it.

sure but value isn't linear. you'd way rather have 1 2.2 gsva player than 3 1.0 gsva players for example

 

[vancityluongo]

sure but value isn't linear. you'd way rather have 1 2.2 gsva player than 3 1.0 gsva players for example

for players yes, but the draft picks are just expected values - could easily argue you'd rather have 3 shots at developing mid-round non-blue chip prospects rather than 1, especially for a pool as weak and shallow as the canucks'

 

[credulous]

for players yes, but the draft picks are just expected values - could easily argue you'd rather have 3 shots at developing mid-round non-blue chip prospects rather than 1, especially for a pool as weak and shallow as the canucks'

i mean you'd need to know the confidence intervals and distributions to really know. without knowing anything about those though instinctively i just think an early 2nd is worth like 5-6 4ths. maybe even more