Confirmed with Link: [VAN/MTL] Canucks acquire G Casey DeSmith for F Tanner Pearson, 3rd Round Pick

Tables of Stats

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I find it highly dubious that Myers would have been unmovable now with $1 million in cash owing but had positive value in summer 2022 with $12 million in cash owing.
I feel the same way. If he can't be moved now there's no way we were getting assets back in a way that helped our cap situation. If the move last season was close to an equal amount of cap coming back I can see why we'd have passed.

What ranking? Points? lol
No by ranking! The same vague metric you've been unable to define.
 

biturbo19

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DeSmith has a $1.8M Caphit for this year vs. $3.25M for Pearson. Canucks save $1.45M in cap space.

Functionally, it's actually more savings than that, because DeSmith is going to be displacing Spencer Martin's $770k as well. So it's closer to ~$2.2M of actual practical cap relief. Which is really solid for just a deferred 3rd round pick a couple years from now, while also getting a pretty huge upgrade with an actual reliable backup netminder. That should also have follow-on benefits for being able to better keep Demko fresh and healthy.

DeSmith is a pretty ideal backup. He's thrived in that role as a "true backup". Might falter a bit if asked to play a temporary "starters" role. But if Demko goes down for any length of time...it'll be Silovs net anyway. DeSmith is a great guy who can sit on the bench most nights, but still come in cold, or play his part of back-to-backs and intermittent action, and come in ready and focused. He's given the Penguins a really good W-L ratio out of those "Backup Games" over the years. Like 2:1 ratio in the years where he was deployed as a true backup for ~20-25 games. Which is probably the target behind Demko.

Why do we have so many AHL goalies?

I've said all along that Martin isn't good enough, and DeSmith is certainly an improvement. But why sign Sawchenko? Even before this trade Tolopilo was going to struggle to get starts.

There are a lot of goalies in the mix now...but i don't really see it as much of a problem.

NHL:
Demko, DeSmith.

AHL:
Silovs...and whichever of Tolopilo/Sawchenko/Martin earns the spot. The other two either ECHL, or i think they probably look into an AHL "loan" for someone like Martin/Sawchenko. There are other teams out there who don't necessarily have two quality AHL goaltenders. Even a team like the Chicago Wolves who don't have an NHL affiliate might end up being a landing spot where you can park Spencer Martin for the year. Wouldn't even be a bad thing to potentially have a guy stationed out East somewhere in the event you need to grab a backup short-term while off on a road trip, rather than potentially flying a guy out from the West Coast.

Just gives us a lot of options and depth. Which we've seen time and again, can become valuable in today's NHL where teams can easily find themselves many rungs down the depth chart over the course of a season if they run into bad injury luck. It'll let us manage those situations without completely tanking the Abbottsford season either, which is nice.


Ideally, i think you want Tolopilo to win that other AHL spot behind Silovs. So he can be local and working regularly with Ian Clark. But at the same time...he's likely to get more playing time in the ECHL, if Silovs takes on a workhorse AHL workload. Even Silovs himself played a handful of ECHL games and didn't seem to hurt him much. Tolopilo also hasn't really played any Pro games in North America.

But ideal is really:

AHL:
Silovs, Tolopilo forces his way in.

ECHL:
Sawchenko.

AHL Loan:
Martin.

Just depends on how the situation unfolds and how guys look in camp. But i'm not too worried about the crowding. There are ways to handle it.
 
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m9

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Functionally, it's actually more savings than that, because DeSmith is going to be displacing Spencer Martin's $770k as well. So it's closer to ~$2.2M of actual practical cap relief. Which is really solid for just a deferred 3rd round pick a couple years from now, while also getting a pretty huge upgrade with an actual reliable backup netminder. That should also have follow-on benefits for being able to better keep Demko fresh and healthy.

Nope, because you are replacing Pearson on the roster with another player and that needs to be accounted for. 1.45 in true savings is a more accurate reflection of savings.
 
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Intangibos

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Still doesn’t mean they don’t get a 2nd chance. What’s the point of having laws and punishment when you can say nah, you got punished but we are not going to give you a 2nd chance.

The same people who think this guy's career should be over and life ruined are probably the same type of people who complain that the North American prison system is too focused on punishment rather than rehabilitation. It's about having the right opinions for social standing rather than any type of consistency, it's often best to just ignore them.
 

RobsonStreet

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These will be my last responses because it's the DeSmith thread.

Is it honest? I guess? Is it bad, considering what the club thinks they need to do? Also yes. It's an indictment on the management group.
I’m going to assume they didn’t waive Pearson because they didn’t think he’d be claimed and would still have 2 million against the cap. They didn’t waive another player because they didn’t want to risk losing them.

I’ve been confused at how negative the reaction to this trade has been. The only thing I can figure is that some people (not necessarily you) seem to judge spending futures to fix mistakes (this trade) as harshly as spending futures to make them. This is causing people to lump this trade into a “more of the same” category that I don’t agree with.
 

biturbo19

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Nope, because you are replacing Pearson on the roster with another player and that needs to be accounted for. 1.45 in true savings is a more accurate reflection of savings.

Not really though. Because with Pearson on the roster, we weren't going to be able to afford to have that "other player" spare on the cap balance sheet. We would've been running a skeleton lineup. So it's not really "replacing" anyone, so much as allowing us to actually carry spare forwards by moving him. Ie. The functional "savings" from Pearson are bigger than that $1.45M in that it'll allow us to spread among multiple players and carry actual spares.
 
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Nick Lang

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in this news article on december 6, 2014 they report he had admitted assaulting her in court and then pled guilty to a misdemeanour disorderly conduct charge and paid a $124 and took probation. they also report a second charge of disorderly conduct being dropped but make no mention of an assault charge.


it's highly likely the story is wrong. it is unlikely if not impossible he admitted the higher offence of assault in open court as reported that he was not even charged with, nor would he be required to do so in order to plead to disorderly conduct. in fact, if he did admit to an assault in court then he would have been convicted of assault by the judge.

then on december 15th the article you quote appears headlined that he tells his side of the story. in the article he accuses the media of misreporting the facts but the reporter does not explain what he means.


that article was mostly taken from a written statement de smith made which another paper reported in full. in it you will see that de smith in particular was mad about the cecemeber 6th story and considering legal action about how badly the first story was written.


this part of the written statement adds detail to a disciplinary hearing at the school where he was cleared:

"During the hearing, DeSmith presented two detailed statements that included evidence which called into question allegations that had been made against him, including an allegation that he had caused physical harm to another student, his former girlfriend. That evidence showed that a) she showed no sign whatsoever of having been struck and was completely uninjured, b) she gave wildly different accounts of what had happened that night to police, c) neither of her descriptions of what happened agreed with first-hand accounts provided to police by eyewitnesses, and d) a teammate, Wildcats captain Matt Willows, stated that she later told him that DeSmith had not, in fact, struck her."

and here's another story indicating he was cleared after the disciplinary hearing by the school.


"According to the Concord Monitor this past December, DeSmith was immediately suspended by the University following the incident, which involved a former girlfriend, but that suspension was ended in November after a disciplinary hearing, which found that statements had varied, among other evidence, which also included no evidence of physical harm and other eyewitness statements that DeSmith did not do anything physical during the incident, according to the report.

The board found that DeSmith was not responsible for causing physical harm and was allowed to re-enter the University as a student in good standing the following semester."

so bottom line. he plead guilty only to disorderly conduct, denied assaulting anyone, and was acquitted of assaulting his gf after a discplinary hearing by the school.

what he actually did i have no idea. maybe somebody can dig further. but i'd be pretty cautious trusting these badly written news stories and judging him on it.

Man this world is getting beyond annoying. I guess from this point onward every time a player or coach is brought into the team all the dirt of their past is going to be brought up. Then said person will be thrown the ringer, and their character will be doubted and dragged through the mud and assaulted by people who will not have their own list of bad moments paraded around for all to judge and piss on. Every one makes bad choices and does things that they regret. Most people have a moment or two that is completely unacceptable, and it is how they deal with it and make amends that defines their character.

I'm so tired of where social media is going. Pretty soon all we'll be is just a list of poor choices and actions and cancelled souls. It reminds me of the old scripture:

Before your remove the sliver from my eye first remove the log from thine own.
 
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bossram

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i mean the more you have to explain which specific ranking you are referring illustrates the fact nobody knows the hell you are saying.

if you are going to use widely understand terms like top 6 and middle 6 but then decide to categorize in a way that is unique to you then that defeats the purpose of using those terms in the 1st place.
What's a top-six player then? What criteria? The things you're saying apply similarly. Except the criteria is even looser.
 

Nick Lang

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I disagree with the premise that Pettersson will be tricked in to resigning with short term improvements.

Exactly. Petterson looks like a very smart dude to me. You have to be to process hockey and be that much better than 99% of the hockey players in the world. He would be far more willing to re-sign if we had the best team possible, not that we wasted all of our money and resources throwing shit against the wall hoping we somehow hit pay dirt in the short term.
 

bossram

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Still doesn’t mean they don’t get a 2nd chance. What’s the point of having laws and punishment when you can say nah, you got punished but we are not going to give you a 2nd chance.
2nd chances are great! Look at Mike Babcock!
Man this world is getting beyond annoying. I guess from this point onward every time a player or coach is brought into the team all the dirt of their past is going to be brought up. Then said person will be thrown the ringer, and their character will be doubted and dragged through the mud and assaulted by people who will not have their own list of bad moments paraded around for all to judge and piss on. Every one makes bad choices and does things that they regret. Most people have a moment or two that is completely unacceptable, and it is how they deal with it and make amends that defines their character.

I'm so tired of where social media is going. Pretty soon all we'll be is just a list of poor choices and actions and cancelled souls. It reminds me of the old scripture:

Before your remove the sliver from my eye first remove the log from thine own.
Have you considered...there are people that haven't assaulted anyone? Perhaps you could give a chance to a player that hasn't done that!

Like it or not, your past actions affect you. If they were bad, and other people want to judge you for it, well, it's your fault.

IMO it's a good thing. In the past, these kinds of transgressions would have been buried. It's good people can find out about them and make their own judgement, with all the information available.

No by ranking! The same vague metric you've been unable to define.
@arttk's definition of a 2nd or liner was even more vague. A ranking is very clear if you have a metric to rank them by.

Whereas the definition of a 2nd or 3rd liner that has been given to me is a tautology: It's someone that can play on a 2nd or 3rd line!
 
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Tables of Stats

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@arttk's definition of a 2nd or liner was even more vague. A ranking is very clear if you have a metric to rank them by.

Whereas the definition of a 2nd or 3rd liner that has been given to me is a tautology: It's someone that can play on a 2nd or 3rd line!

I get that logic and stats aren't your strong suit, despite your username.
So what metrics do you use to rank players? Can I see your list down to 300 so we have some fringe middle players ranked?

Also, just maybe, when you're the only person mad about a thing that thing isn't as bad as you think it is. You seem to be getting heated about this. Step back and chill.
 
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bossram

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So what metrics do you use to rank players? Can I see your list down to 300 so we have some fringe middle players ranked?

Also, just maybe, when you're the only person mad about a thing that thing isn't as bad as you think it is. You seem to be getting heated about this. Step back and chill.
You're the one that seems mad and should chill. It was @arttk who originally complained about my "ranking". And then you had to jump in and pile on, despite not actually being involved in the conversation in the first place.

Interesting behaviour for someone who "isn't mad". If no one cares, why'd you have to jump in and complain about it? I guess you're obviously so heated you had to put in your 2 cents on a topic that was unrelated to you.
 

Tables of Stats

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You're the one that seems mad and should chill. It was @arttk who originally complained about my "ranking". And then you had to jump in and pile on, despite not actually being involved in the conversation in the first place.

Interesting behaviour for someone who "isn't mad". If no one cares, why'd you have to jump in and complain about it? I guess you're obviously so heated you had to put in your 2 cents on a topic that was unrelated to you.
I've been engaging you all thread. This isn't jumping in, this is asking you to back up your positions with something other than outrage and blustering.

So again, I ask, where is your list? What metrics do you rank players by? How have your rankings held up in terms of predicting next season's success?
 
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biturbo19

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That's a weird way to categorize middle 6 vs top6 and not at all understandable. If you ask any random person on this board what is middle six, i am pretty damn sure nobody will say somebody who is between 97th-288th in the league. i am pretty damn sure nobody know who is actually ranked in that region. I mean, can you name 10 players off the top of your head that is within that range you just listed without doing any research? Whatever name you throw is 100% going to be a guess or you are an absolute outlier and love stats.
I think everyone has an idea what is a profile of a 3rd liner, 2nd liner and a 1st liner and I am sure when we say middle 6 and top6, we refer to this taxonomy.

Cap flexibility is a means to an end, not the end. Even if we didn't sign Miki, we are going to use that cap some other way. I think when management says they want cap flex, yeah they want it to do even more stuff, it's not like they will sit there with cap flexibility and then not do anything.

Yeah. I don't really know about just categorizing "Top-6" vs "Middle-6" purely by making a list of all the forwards in the league and parsing it into tiers like that.

For example...someone like Adam Lowry is an outstanding player. I'd have him ranked much higher in "value" for a team than some filler like Anthony Beauvillier. However...if i want someone to play on my top line riding shotgun to say...Petey-Kuz...i think there's a real argument that Beauvillier might be the better fit. Skillsets and aptitudes start to play into the conversation, beyond just an abstracted list of "best players" on a generalized overall value context.


In a lot of cases, i think even just a descriptor like "Top-9" becomes more useful for certain types of players. Where "Middle-6" can represent some barriers offensively, to playing a more prominent role further up the lineup. But you can still have oddities where a "Middle-6 player" can be "better" or "more valuable" than a "Top-9" forward who has specific traits that allow them to look less out of place as Top-6 filler. The league is becoming so much more about depth and flexibility anyway. It's complicated and often more about "duos" and interchangeable "filler" plugging in around them. :dunno:
 

bossram

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I've been engaging you all thread. This isn't jumping in, this is asking you to back up your positions with something other than outrage and blustering.

So again, I ask, where is your list? What metrics do you rank players by? How have your rankings held up in terms of predicting next season's success?
This is false. You were not originally involved in the discussion of player "rankings". You jumped in after aartk.

Personally, I think something as basic as a list of guys ranked by xGAR/60 or GAR/60 is a good place to start to tier players. Preferably over multiple seasons. Obviously there can be some personal discretion when discussing individual players and I wouldn't go exactly off a list to determine player quality, but I think there needs to be some kind of objective, non-arbitrary base.

Without some kind of simple ranking there is so much complexity and nuance involved that categorizing players as "2nd liners" or "3rd liners" is essentially meaningless. @biturbo19 walks through the context and nuance pretty well.

And again, no one has provided a better, more logical typology of players that isn't something tautological.
 

arttk

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Yeah. I don't really know about just categorizing "Top-6" vs "Middle-6" purely by making a list of all the forwards in the league and parsing it into tiers like that.

For example...someone like Adam Lowry is an outstanding player. I'd have him ranked much higher in "value" for a team than some filler like Anthony Beauvillier. However...if i want someone to play on my top line riding shotgun to say...Petey-Kuz...i think there's a real argument that Beauvillier might be the better fit. Skillsets and aptitudes start to play into the conversation, beyond just an abstracted list of "best players" on a generalized overall value context.


In a lot of cases, i think even just a descriptor like "Top-9" becomes more useful for certain types of players. Where "Middle-6" can represent some barriers offensively, to playing a more prominent role further up the lineup. But you can still have oddities where a "Middle-6 player" can be "better" or "more valuable" than a "Top-9" forward who has specific traits that allow them to look less out of place as Top-6 filler. The league is becoming so much more about depth and flexibility anyway. It's complicated and often more about "duos" and interchangeable "filler" plugging in around them. :dunno:
i think a good example would be Burrows. He is obviously a top line winger for us but he didn't really produce at a top line clip. I assume whatever ranking @bossram has will probably id Burrows as a middle 6 player and that would just be wrong.
Miki worked well as a 1st line winger last season for 19 games and the rest of the games he played on the 2nd line with Miller and Bo and also contributed to those lines and at the end of the day, he produced at a 50ish point clip with a busted ACL and had positive possession impact on the top 2 lines. So based on that, he is obviously a top6 players based on his usage, production and impact.
 
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bossram

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i think a good example would be Burrows. He is obviously a top line winger for us but he didn't really produce at a top line clip. I assume whatever ranking @bossram has will probably id Burrows as a middle 6 player and that would just be wrong.
Miki worked well as a 1st line winger last season for 19 games and the rest of the games he played on the 2nd line with Miller and Bo and also contributed to those lines and at the end of the day, he produced at a 50ish point clip with a busted ACL and had positive possession impact on the top 2 lines. So based on that, he is obviously a top6 players based on his usage, production and impact.
Nope. You'd be wrong again.

As I said in my post above, I'd use a simple xGAR/60 list as a base for tiering/ranking.

By this metric, Burrows was 41st in 2011, well into first line caliber territory. He was also rated very highly by this metric in 2010, and was just on the edge of 1st/2nd range in 2012.

In my own personal opinion, I'd probably have to downgrade him from where the model ranks him.
 

arttk

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Nope. You'd be wrong again.

As I said in my post above, I'd use a simple xGAR/60 list as a base for tiering/ranking.

By this metrics, Burrows was 41st in 2011, well into first line caliber territory. He was also rated very highly by this metric in 2010, and was just on the edge of 1st/2nd range in 2012.

In my own personal opinion, I'd probably have to downgrade him from where the model ranks him.
like i said, you are just taking a common and well understood term and then applying a different meaning to it. Like why is it xGAR and not points? is it because that's how everybody understands it or is it because you alone decided that is the metric to go?
 
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bossram

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like i said, you are just taking a common and well understood term and then applying a different meaning to it. Like why is it xGAR and not points? is it because that's how everybody understands it or is it because you alone decided that is the metric to go?
I was asked what metric I would use. I provided one. If you don't like it because it doesn't fit your opinions, that's fine. I think xGAR/60 is better because it provides a bit more holistic representation of a player than purely points, though high-end scorers are still favoured by it.

Once again, you are moving the goalposts. I was asked a question and gave a clear answer. Now you want to say I shouldn't have provided that answer because it doesn't align with how you think about things.

I get you're just upset that your Burrows "gotcha" attempt didn't actually work.
 
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arttk

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I was asked what metric I would use. I provided one. If you don't like it because it doesn't fit your opinions, that's fine. I think xGAR/60 is better because it provides a bit more holistic representation of a player than purely points, though high-end scorers are still favoured by it.

Once again, you are moving the goalposts. I was asked a question and gave a clear answer. Now you want to say I shouldn't have provided that answer because it doesn't align with how you think about things.
i mean you might as well just say Miki is a middle 6 player because you deem it so.

i should be clear, the reason i asked you what metric you would use is not because i actually care. the reason is to show that you even need to go and explain it shows that you are taking something that is well understood, middle 6, top 6 and applying your own interpretation and arguing against that.
 

bossram

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i mean you might as well just say Miki is a middle 6 player because you deem it so.
And you might as well say you think Mik is a pure top-six player because you deem it so! That's essentially what your definition was!

I at least have some objective base to go off of. And provided clear criteria.

I get that you're just upset that your Burrows gotcha didn't work. Sorry.

I will now stop this discussion for real. My apologies everyone else.
 

arttk

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And you might as well say you think Mik is a pure top-six player because you deem it so! That's essentially what your definition was!

I at least have some objective base to go off of. And provided clear criteria.

I get that you're just upset that your Burrows gotcha didn't work. Sorry.

I will now stop this discussion for real. My apologies everyone else.
yes you used an objective ranking but you subjective applied it in ways that it was not designed to.
 

krutovsdonut

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IMO it's a good thing. In the past, these kinds of transgressions would have been buried. It's good people can find out about them and make their own judgement, with all the information available.
not if the information available is incomplete garbage and/or facts selectively massaged by someone with an agenda.

and given the sad diminished state of news reporting today, that is usually what you are going to get. it's not enough to form a reasonable judgment most of the time on important issues like whether someone should be "cancelled".

so people need to chill and be careful and responsible online before using their voice to demand consequences for others. online "outrage" mobs are real and do real damage to real people. people need to hold themselves accountable before joining one of those mobs on any issue. lives are impacted by their actions.
 
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bossram

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not if the information available is incomplete garbage and/or facts selectively massaged by someone with an agenda.

and given the sad diminished state of news reporting today, that is usually what you are going to get. it's not enough to form a reasonable judgment most of the time on important issues like whether someone should be "cancelled".

so people need to chill and be careful and responsible online before using their voice to demand consequences for others. online "outrage" mobs are real and do real damage to real people. people need to hold themselves accountable before joining one of those mobs on any issue. lives are impacted by their actions.
In the case of CDS, he was arrested, given multiple charges (including resisting arrest), and entered a plea deal. I have no personal opinion on CDS in 2023, but the information here is pretty cut and dry.

The bigger issue, as we see more and more now, is that it was very easy to bury this stuff and get away with it in the past (e.g. celebrities and the metoo movement). No, I do not believe online "rage mobs" and "cancel culture" (as an aside, it's hard to take anyone seriously who talks about cancel culture non-ironically) is a bigger problem than, y'know, actual abuses and assault.
 
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arttk

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And you might as well say you think Mik is a pure top-six player because you deem it so! That's essentially what your definition was!

I at least have some objective base to go off of. And provided clear criteria.

I get that you're just upset that your Burrows gotcha didn't work. Sorry.

I will now stop this discussion for real. My apologies everyone else.
if you are using that xGAR correctly, you would have actually used the xGAR number itself to set thresholds to determine tiering range. for example, you would take a bunch of samples of actual 2nd and 3rd line players and use them to set the boundaires of their tiering and determine who is "middle 6" based off that. instead what you have done is that you have lazily determined that number 77 -278 is middle 6 because i assumed you just look at how many players in the nhl, assumed x% of them is middle 6 and then just applied that, which is super lazy and doesn't account into all sorts of things.

Arbitrary setting tiering based on a stack ranking is just lazy and wrong.
 

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