Confirmed with Link: [VAN/DAL] Canucks acquire F Jason Dickinson for 2021 3rd Round Pick

[F A N]

After seeing the way Green works for a long time, I cannot imagine he's comfortable with a 44% faceoff guy as his main matchup C. I think it's somewhat dinosaur thinking, but it is what it is and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Dickinson largely on the wing.

Agreed. And I even agree with the dinosaur thinking. Regardless of where Dickinson plays, it's going to be Horvat out there for all the important defensive zone draws on the left circle.

 

[VanJack]

It just goes to show you how 'out to lunch' some members of the media are in this town. When the Dickinson trade came down, the talking heads immediately speculated that because Dickinson was a 'superior defensive center', it would free up Horvat to play a more offensive role, with fewer d-zone assignments.

But a guy who tops out at 44 percent in the faceoff circle isn't going to be the answer. Green may try Dickinson as his 'shut-down third line center'. But unless he can improve dramatically in the faceoff dot, it won't be successful.

 

[DonnyNucker]

It just goes to show you how 'out to lunch' some members of the media are in this town. When the Dickinson trade came down, the talking heads immediately speculated that because Dickinson was a 'superior defensive center', it would free up Horvat to play a more offensive role, with fewer d-zone assignments.

But a guy who tops out at 44 percent in the faceoff circle isn't going to be the answer. Green may try Dickinson as his 'shut-down third line center'. But unless he can improve dramatically in the faceoff dot, it won't be successful.

Seriously? Who cares about face offs. The difference between a 50% v 44% will have almost no impact in the game. Pretty stupid way to evaluate a players defensive ability.

 

[MS]

I mean is it? His war profile seemingly shows that he is mostly just miscast as the shutdown guy 5v5. Give him softer minutes with a 3 C that can take some of the Defensive load and he could easily rocket up the war chart.

Also that his line mates (pearson) aren't suited to being on his wings if thats the roe a team wants horvat to do.

This post perfectly makes my point.

What you're saying is that what 'WAR' is actually measuring is effectiveness in a player's role, and is useless without context. And I can show you posts I made 15 years ago explaining that that's literally exactly what +/- does. And, again, all most of these advanced stats are doing is taking +/- of events with bigger sample sizes. And if you have no context ... it's junk, just like +/-.

But further to that, these 'WAR' stats and the people who use them aren't remotely trying to present them as 'effectiveness in role, requires context'. They're presenting them as 'how good this player is'. The 'R' in WAR is referring to replacement-level players, and if you're saying Bo Horvat is a negative WAR player, what you're actually doing is presenting that Bo Horvat is a sub-replacement level player who is a fringy AHL type. Which is obviously nonsense.

Like, no shit a #4 defender playing #1 minutes on a terrible team is going to have bad results. And of course that's going to get captured. But it doesn't mean the player is sub-replacement level or a garbage player, and making that assumption based on a graph without context is just ridiculous.

This isn't baseball and the attempts of people without the required math skills and logical understanding to try turning hockey stats into baseball stats is beyond tiresome.

 

[Hit the post]

It just goes to show you how 'out to lunch' some members of the media are in this town. When the Dickinson trade came down, the talking heads immediately speculated that because Dickinson was a 'superior defensive center', it would free up Horvat to play a more offensive role, with fewer d-zone assignments.

But a guy who tops out at 44 percent in the faceoff circle isn't going to be the answer. Green may try Dickinson as his 'shut-down third line center'. But unless he can improve dramatically in the faceoff dot, it won't be successful.

Gaudette's FO% in his last season as a Canuck/First as a Black Hawk: 42.7%

Jim Benning upgrades!

 

[MS]

Seriously? Who cares about face offs. The difference between a 50% v 44% will have almost no impact in the game. Pretty stupid way to evaluate a players defensive ability.

Presumably you've been watching Travis Green and noticing his patterns and tendencies for several years. Do you actually believe for a second that he shares this opinion?

 

[Peen]

Seriously? Who cares about face offs. The difference between a 50% v 44% will have almost no impact in the game. Pretty stupid way to evaluate a players defensive ability.

Donny, you are missing the point.

No one here gives a shit about the difference between 44 and 50%. There are pages in multiple old threads on Sutter/Beagle where people used to say faceoffs mattered while the people you are arguing with here would say that they don’t.

What people are saying here is that Green and this management group DO value faceoff ability more than they should and that could be a contributing factor to him potentially not being utilized at center

 

[DonnyNucker]

Presumably you've been watching Travis Green and noticing his patterns and tendencies for several years. Do you actually believe for a second that he shares this opinion?

For sure Green is stubborn and overrates face offs. But clearly Benning brought him into play 3C. So Green will need to smarten up

 

[Nucker101]

WAR is a flawed stat, I believe even the guy who created it understands that it’s not the best for predicting future value, just a way to value what a player has done in the past.

There’s plenty of more interesting stats to look at to truly evaluate a player’s abilities.

 

[VanJack]

If you watched the Canucks closely last season, Horvat was out there for almost every defensive zone faceoff unless his line had just come off the ice.

The problem with losing the faceoff in your own zone, is that you usually give up two or three quality chances before you regain possession and get the puck out. Defensive zone faceoffs matter--a lot.

Too bad Manny Malhotra wasn't still with the Canucks.....players like Dickinson and even wingers forced to take draws when the center is tossed out, can get better in the faceoff dot with some perseverance and hard work.

 

[timw33]

Another comparable coming in that is going to chain down Dickinson's value to the $2MM or under range: Zach Aston Reese 1 year 1.75MM. He's a year older, has a higher career PPG, higher PPG in contract year, is deployed heavily in defensive matchup roles and by many of the models is one of the best players in the league by defensive impacts.

If we pay more than about 2.25 on a term deal then we are overpaying.

Would happily take him to arbitration there is no case for this player to be making 2.75-3MM.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Presumably you've been watching Travis Green and noticing his patterns and tendencies for several years. Do you actually believe for a second that he shares this opinion?

The thing is, you initially cited his supposed inability to win faceoffs as a reason he wouldn't be an effective defensive 3C, not as a reason to believe that he wouldn't be given that role. You then pivoted and recast your statement as claiming Green was simply unlikely to play him there when your previous statements on the value of faceoff proficiency were brought up.

 

[MS]

The thing is, you initially cited his supposed inability to win faceoffs as a reason he wouldn't be an effective defensive 3C, not as a reason to believe that he wouldn't be given that role. You then pivoted and recast your statement as claiming Green was simply unlikely to play him there when your previous statements on the value of faceoff proficiency were brought up.

I’ve commented multiple times (since the day of the trade) that it will be an issue for the coaches and that I don’t share that viewpoint. My views on face offs are very well known here I think.

You’ve chosen to read it wrong to try creating a gotcha moment.

 

[Hit the post]

If you watched the Canucks closely last season, Horvat was out there for almost every defensive zone faceoff unless his line had just come off the ice.

The problem with losing the faceoff in your own zone, is that you usually give up two or three quality chances before you regain possession and get the puck out. Defensive zone faceoffs matter--a lot.

Too bad Manny Malhotra wasn't still with the Canucks.....players like Dickinson and even wingers forced to take draws when the center is tossed out, can get better in the faceoff dot with some perseverance and hard work.

Didn't seem to have much of an impact as the Laffs power play coach.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Presumably you've been watching Travis Green and noticing his patterns and tendencies for several years. Do you actually believe for a second that he shares this opinion?

Green noticed that Horvat cannot be on the pk and does not put him there. Yes Horvat will be used for faceoffs 5 on 5, but that does not really relate to being match up center as most shifts do not start in Canucks zone. Most are done during play. Dickinson can pk and play against top players, this is useful to the Canucks and should help Horvat. However having Garland on his line is a much bigger deal. If Green is worried about Dickinson's faceoffs Miller and or Sutter can take his draws as well.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Speculating Dickinson in the top 6. With Pearson.

That's, uh, certainly something.

After transformative summer, key to Canucks' redemption is commitment

Even in August, Green was coy about lineup deployments, but it’s not automatic that Garland plays with captain Bo Horvat on the second line while Dickinson centres the third.
“What I like is that we're going to have options,” Green said. “With J.T. playing centre last year, out of necessity, I think he grew into that position. I think that gives us some flexibility where we could run our centres in different options if we want to. Obviously, we've got some young wingers with Vasily Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander. I never. . . want to put pressure on a young player to be at a certain level. But I'm also hopeful that (Podkolzin) can play in that top nine and we’ll see where we end up with the lines. We'll probably try a lot of different combinations in camp and in exhibition.”

 

[VanillaCoke]

 

[Peen]

Speculating Dickinson in the top 6. With Pearson.

That's, uh, certainly something.

One thing that’s obvious is that if Dickinson doesn’t work at center, Horvat is going to go back to being that grunt work guy every night instead of being given more offensive reign.

And, I don’t think he wants to do that for 82 games anymore.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

One thing that’s obvious is that if Dickinson doesn’t work at center, Horvat is going to go back to being that grunt work guy every night instead of being given more offensive reign.

And, I don’t think he wants to do that for 82 games anymore.

"Hey Bo, I know you're our captain and we've upgraded our forward group, but f*** you."

 

[Hit the post]

One thing that’s obvious is that if Dickinson doesn’t work at center, Horvat is going to go back to being that grunt work guy every night instead of being given more offensive reign.

And, I don’t think he wants to do that for 82 games anymore.

Could be worse. Horvat could get stuck with Dickon as his winger.

 

[Cornwallace]

Horvat's reaction to somehow getting a more offensively inept winger than Pearson

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Horvat's reaction to somehow getting a more offensively inept winger than Pearson

To be fair, that's speculation on iMac's part and he admitted later that there's still a long ways to go between now and the first game of the season.

But that speculation did follow an interview with Green, so...

 

[wonton15]

There's absolutely no real good reason to put Dickinson beside Horvat and drop Miller down to 3C.

Which is why I'm sure we'll see it in the first 5 games of the season lol

 

[Hit the post]

There's absolutely no real good reason to put Dickinson beside Horvat and drop Miller down to 3C.

Which is why I'm sure we'll see it in the first 5 games of the season lol

This might end up (IF) it happens as dumb than when Willie put Sutter with the Sedins.

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

Honestly i think its big brain. You dont have an offensive black hole 3rd line if you make it your second instead. I mean who can complain now that we finally have a scoring third line?