Jetfaninflorida
Southernmost Jet Fan
Thanks. Pardon my ignorance but what are the units? Buff / Kane = 59 what? I am trying to understand how you decide / define tipping point.
Speculation: Value of Tobias Enstrom
- Thread starter pylero
- Start date
Thanks. Pardon my ignorance but what are the units? Buff / Kane = 59 what? I am trying to understand how you decide / define tipping point.
Bankerguy
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2013
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Just curious... in my memory, i some how recall Enstrom being a left shot D playing the right side.
I know that the Jets are stacked on the right and thin on the left so obviously you play Enstrom on his strong side (left) BUT... can he play right side?
I know that the Jets are stacked on the right and thin on the left so obviously you play Enstrom on his strong side (left) BUT... can he play right side?
I don't recall him ever playing on the right side with the Jets.
He's usually paired with Byfuglien or if not Buff than Bogo.
Not sure if garret is showing Corsi or Fenwick, but if you want to learn more about them, search for those terms, or start here for an overview: http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2013/12/4/5167404/nhl-stats-made-simple-part-1-corsi-fenwick
Essentially, Corsi is number of shots directed at the net including blocked and missed shots. Fenwick is the same, except blocked shots aren't counted. CF is Corsi for, CA is Corsi against, and CF% is the ratio of for vs. against. You want this to be above 50%. FF, FA, and FF% are the same for the Fenwick numbers. They both measure or approximate possession for a team.
garret's chart is showing either CF% or FF%. Hope this helps!
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
^ Corsi 
With chopping up these into each pairing, even Corsi (all shot attempts) is susceptible to sample bias... Fenwick (non-blocked shot attemps) would be more susceptible.
Trends are more important than specific values because of sample bias.
With chopping up these into each pairing, even Corsi (all shot attempts) is susceptible to sample bias... Fenwick (non-blocked shot attemps) would be more susceptible.
Trends are more important than specific values because of sample bias.
Thanks garret! Some interesting numbers in there. Strange which players are positive with which d-men, but I'm assuming that's due to usage, and the likelihood that if you're paired with a top d-man, you're probably seeing higher QoC, worse usage, or both. Yes?
And: label yer graphs!
And: label yer graphs!
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Thanks garret! Some interesting numbers in there. Strange which players are positive with which d-men, but I'm assuming that's due to usage, and the likelihood that if you're paired with a top d-man, you're probably seeing higher QoC, worse usage, or both. Yes?
And: label yer graphs!
Hey I did this one on my school computer station quickly in 10 minutes okay!?
And yes, the results are going to be due to a combination of:
1) forwards skill + defensemens skill
2) usage (competition, zone starts, who are the other 3 guys)
3) sampling issues (some of these groupings are 50 mins when with Corsi I'd optimally like 200+)
For the Jets for this year basically you can consider competition levels are higher as you go to the guys logging more minutes. Noel this season has predominately gone tough matchups to top line/pair and descending down... there are small exceptions but who cares in this exercise haha
For those too lazy to go back a page:
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Should also note I've been doing a few of these as time goes...
Trending up:
Trouba, Scheifele, Frolik
Trending down:
Setoguchi, Jokinen, Ellerby
I call the trending down the Stuart/Thorburn effect.
Trending up:
Trouba, Scheifele, Frolik
Trending down:
Setoguchi, Jokinen, Ellerby
I call the trending down the Stuart/Thorburn effect.
Bankerguy
Registered User
- Apr 28, 2013
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There are a few things in this thread that i don't agree with.
1. He has no family living in Winnipeg AND Winnipeg isnt the most desirable city to live/ play hockey in so i'm not 100% sure that the NMC or NTC would really stand in the way of a trade.
2. He's an offensive Dman who is only on pace for 24 points. He gets loads of PP time... I'm not saying he's a bad Dman..he's very good. He's a top pairing guy but i dont think his value is as high as Jets fans think. Young player + top 6 forward + 1st ? dont think so.
1. He has no family living in Winnipeg AND Winnipeg isnt the most desirable city to live/ play hockey in so i'm not 100% sure that the NMC or NTC would really stand in the way of a trade.
2. He's an offensive Dman who is only on pace for 24 points. He gets loads of PP time... I'm not saying he's a bad Dman..he's very good. He's a top pairing guy but i dont think his value is as high as Jets fans think. Young player + top 6 forward + 1st ? dont think so.
Duke749
Savannah Ghost Pirates
And just completely shut down the top line that consist of two top 10 players at their position on the best team in the league with the best record at home this season while being much smaller then both players. I think it's very ignorant to consider Enstrom strictly an OFD.
But I thought people started calling him mini-Lidstrom way back because all his plays are so flashy and he's always scoring highlight-reel goals?
He can be a really good OFD, but you're missing so much of his game if you're sitting around only waiting for points.
With regards to his value: I think Enstrom is nigh-untradeable at the moment. We pay him what he's worth to us, but he's more valuable to us than he would be to most other teams because of how lopsided our d-corps is. Throw that in with Chevy's inhuman patience as well as the facts that Toby's considered to be underperforming by some (see above) and has a NTC and I really don't see a trade emerging that Chevy would pull the trigger on.
PhilJets
Winnipeg is Good
Scheifele55
Registered User
I would glady move Toby and Buff if some team overpays on draft day. They are both approaching 30 and may soon begin the decline.
Sweech
Oh When the Spurs
I think Toby continues to be very good well into his thirties. Mainly because his game is predominantly cerebral. He doesn't use physicality or speed to play offensively or defensively, so even while his body may wear down I doubt we notice it much.
StronGeer
Registered User
Friedman said today on Marek vs. Wyshynski that the Jets were shopping Toby around before Buff moved to forward and Toby got paired with Bogosian. Apparently the Jets weren't happy with his play and were seeing what they could get for him. "Teams" had told Friedman that the Jets were looking to move him.
It's odd seeing as he has a NMC. Maybe it hasn't kicked in yet? Not sure.
It's odd seeing as he has a NMC. Maybe it hasn't kicked in yet? Not sure.
King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
theamazingchris
Registered User
King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
theamazingchris
Registered User
StronGeer
Registered User
Apparently no one
Just thought it was interesting he was being dangled in front of other teams. ESPECIALLY because, IMO, he wasn't the problem on the backend, Bogo and Buff were the underachievers
JetsFan815
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2012
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Wow I don't know if I can believe that. Reputable source I guess but I don't see the logic. Toby has been our top D man this season. Even if he is not putting on the points he is still a very solid defensive defenseman capable of shutting down top lines and eating up big minutes.
CaptainChef
Registered User
Get real - eventually we may be strong enough at that position to consider trades but certainly not now, nor does it appear as if help is in the pipeline for a couple years
King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
I am not advocating trading him, as I do agree with you, LHD is clearly one of the weakest spots on the Jets roster.
However, This is a non playoff team with a barely .500 record.
Everything should be considered.
No one is untouchable (man I hate that word) for the right deal.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 34,897
- 31,345
Friedman is solid which makes me think this chatter was legit but talking and trading are two different things. LHD is our glaring weakness so I am with everyone who is scratching their heads. With a new coach and recent results I assume they are rethinking this. I always thought Toby was the safest of the older core based on our complete void of top 4 talent at his position.
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