GDT: Unsolved Mysteries ep.6 (1.31)

[chaz4hockey]

I am headed down to FL as well for work for a week. It looks warm but rainy. I have been thinking of going to the Skills Competition at the All-Star game but after the way the whole Necas thing played out, it's hard to give them my $.

Naples is a sunny 80º today through Saturday with no rain projected until Sunday. Then, 80º through mid next week. Skip the skills, enjoy the weather!

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I will base my conclusions on the fact that those without kids in schools are probably in line at RDU at this very moment, so no wonder they wanted to GTFO of there.

Full disclosure … I had forgotten about tonight’s Sabres game and thought they’d all be headed out on their vacay. The consequence of listening to Ottawa radio yesterday and that’s all they talked about, making sure they played a full 60 against MTL and weren’t looking ahead.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

For all of the questionable coaching decisions Brindamour has made, the decision to basically use Staal as a dedicated faceoff winner in OT might be the best coaching move.

Remember back when 3-on-3 was first introduced? And for the first few seasons after that, the team literally could not win a game past regulation? I think they’d finish those years with like 15 or 16 OT losses.

This year and last, it’s been a stark change from back then. We’re winnign faceoffs, we’re controlling the puck, we’re scoring OT goals. It’s night and day.

 

[tarheelhockey]

For all of the questionable coaching decisions Brindamour has made, the decision to basically use Staal as a dedicated faceoff winner in OT might be the best coaching move.

Remember back when 3-on-3 was first introduced? And for the first few seasons after that, the team literally could not win a game past regulation? I think they’d finish those years with like 15 or 16 OT losses.

This year and last, it’s been a stark change from back then. We’re winnign faceoffs, we’re controlling the puck, we’re scoring OT goals. It’s night and day.

I suspect this is more influence from the analytics folks.

It's is also one of those things to keep in mind when we ask whether Staal is overpaid. He's not out there because he can win faceoffs. He's out there because he's either going to win the faceoff or shut down the best player on the ice, and a pretty good puck control guy in his own right (if only for the sake of getting it back to a teammate so he can go change). There aren't more than a handful of players in the league who do all three of those things as well as he does.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

For all of the questionable coaching decisions Brindamour has made, the decision to basically use Staal as a dedicated faceoff winner in OT might be the best coaching move.

Remember back when 3-on-3 was first introduced? And for the first few seasons after that, the team literally could not win a game past regulation? I think they’d finish those years with like 15 or 16 OT losses.

This year and last, it’s been a stark change from back then. We’re winnign faceoffs, we’re controlling the puck, we’re scoring OT goals. It’s night and day.

I suspect this is more influence from the analytics folks.

It's is also one of those things to keep in mind when we ask whether Staal is overpaid. He's not out there because he can win faceoffs. He's out there because he's either going to win the faceoff or shut down the best player on the ice, and a pretty good puck control guy in his own right (if only for the sake of getting it back to a teammate so he can go change). There aren't more than a handful of players in the league who do all three of those things as well as he does.

Ehh, have we been watching different overtimes this year? A lot of our early season OT losses this season were largely because Staal did not win the faceoff and then got stuck out there on the ice and with all that space and how slow he is he would be a detriment. If he wins the faceoff and can get off the ice quickly it's a good strategy but if not then he's a pretty big net negative on the ice in 3v3. His defensive domination 5v5 and on the PK even doesn't translate to all the space on the ice in 3v3 OT.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ehh, have we been watching different overtimes this year? A lot of our early season OT losses this season were largely because Staal did not win the faceoff and then got stuck out there on the ice and with all that space and how slow he is he would be a detriment. If he wins the faceoff and can get off the ice quickly it's a good strategy but if not then he's a pretty big net negative on the ice in 3v3. His defensive domination 5v5 and on the PK even doesn't translate to all the space on the ice in 3v3 OT.

IIRC, it was like 3 games where he struggled and there hasn’t been an issue with it since.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

IIRC, it was like 3 games where he struggled and there hasn’t been an issue with it since.

Sure but that still supports the notion that putting him out there for the opening faceoff is a bit of a risk, not some genius coaching move by Rod. If he wins it, great, we get first possession and have a good chance at winning. But if he loses it it's the opposite but even worse since now he may not be able to get off the ice. I think any success we have in OTs is more due to guys like Aho and Necas having skill/speed versus putting Staal out for an opening faceoff. Aho could win an opening faceoff too and at least if he loses it he can keep up with the other team in 3v3 defensively.

And frankly, I don't really care at all about 3v3 OT or shootouts, it doesn't translate one bit to the playoffs. It's nice to pick up extra points and a "W" in the standings, but at the end of the day the outcomes don't matter and when evaluating those games in the context of how we may do in the playoffs those are just ties. It's important for fringe teams to pick up those extra points but for a team like us I think it's less important and I wouldn't put any coaching focus on trying to get better at 3v3 OT. Win some, lose some, not a big deal. We'll almost certainly never see an extended 3v3 situation in a playoff game.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sure but that still supports the notion that putting him out there for the opening faceoff is a bit of a risk, not some genius coaching move by Rod. If he wins it, great, we get first possession and have a good chance at winning. But if he loses it it's the opposite but even worse since now he may not be able to get off the ice. I think any success we have in OTs is more due to guys like Aho and Necas having skill/speed versus putting Staal out for an opening faceoff. Aho could win an opening faceoff too and at least if he loses it he can keep up with the other team in 3v3 defensively.

And frankly, I don't really care at all about 3v3 OT or shootouts, it doesn't translate one bit to the playoffs. It's nice to pick up extra points and a "W" in the standings, but at the end of the day the outcomes don't matter and when evaluating those games in the context of how we may do in the playoffs those are just ties. It's important for fringe teams to pick up those extra points but for a team like us I think it's less important and I wouldn't put any coaching focus on trying to get better at 3v3 OT. Win some, lose some, not a big deal. We'll almost certainly never see an extended 3v3 situation in a playoff game.

Like I said to begin with, I suspect it’s an analytic driven decision. Winning the opening faceoff usually has a huge impact on the progression of play until the next whistle, as it forces the opponent into an extended defensive shift and then they have to get their line change sorted out before the can mount an attack.

It’s one thing if your top faceoff guy is a Derek Stepan or something. But Staal is the best defensive forward we have, period. It’s not just 5v5, he also leads our forwards in PK time. He’s the top choice to defend the opposing star center under all circumstances. Plus, if he gets stuck on the ice and gets burnt out trying to get the puck back, that’s fine… now you roll to Aho on the change. If Aho starts OT and loses that faceoff you’ve already played your hand and lost him for a whole shift.

I don’t think Rod makes a regular practice of something this exotic unless the blended-up possession stats say this is the right thing to do. On balance, considering faceoffs + defensive matchups + possession impacts + line cadence impacts, it makes sense that the analytics would support this approach.

I don’t think anyone suggested this is a predictor of success in playoff OT. It matters because playoff seeding matters, and this is how you get a better seed.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Like I said to begin with, I suspect it’s an analytic driven decision. Winning the opening faceoff usually has a huge impact on the progression of play until the next whistle, as it forces the opponent into an extended defensive shift and then they have to get their line change sorted out before the can mount an attack.

It’s one thing if your top faceoff guy is a Derek Stepan or something. But Staal is the best defensive forward we have, period. It’s not just 5v5, he also leads our forwards in PK time. He’s the top choice to defend the opposing star center under all circumstances. Plus, if he gets stuck on the ice and gets burnt out trying to get the puck back, that’s fine… now you roll to Aho on the change. If Aho starts OT and loses that faceoff you’ve already played your hand and lost him for a whole shift.

I don’t think Rod makes a regular practice of something this exotic unless the blended-up possession stats say this is the right thing to do. On balance, considering faceoffs + defensive matchups + possession impacts + line cadence impacts, it makes sense that the analytics would support this approach.

I don’t think anyone suggested this is a predictor of success in playoff OT. It matters because playoff seeding matters, and this is how you get a better seed.

I completely disagree that Staal is our best defensive forward in a 3v3 situation. Every other situation, 100%. But at 3v3 if he gets stuck on the ice against other teams' most skilled/fastest players when they have possession, he struggles. That makes it more of a risk then purely being analytics driven for winning a faceoff.

My bringing up playoffs was just in response to BB's post about Rod's coaching genius for Staal taking faceoffs in 3v3 OT. I don't think he puts much of his coaching effort into 3v3 OT because of it's irrelevance to playoffs. I think it's simply that Staal is our best faceoff guy and Rod's "teachers pet." I'm not convinced it's the best strategy for winning OT games. Yes we've been winning lately with him winning the faceoffs, but our OT record isn't exactly stellar, despite us having some guys whose skills are very well suited for 3v3.

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[tarheelhockey]

I completely disagree that Staal is our best defensive forward in a 3v3 situation. Every other situation, 100%. But at 3v3 if he gets stuck on the ice against other teams' most skilled/fastest players when they have possession, he struggles.

He hasn’t been on the ice for a 3v3 goal against since February of last year. I really think you’re over-remembering a few bad shifts compared to his body of work.

 

[zman77]

Carolina's projected lineup

Forwards:

Teravainen - Aho - Jarvis

Svechnikov - Kotkaniemi - Necas

Martinook - Staal - Fast

Noesen - Stastny - Stepan

Defense:

Chatfield - Burns

Skjei - Pesce

de Haan - Coghlan

Goalies:

Raanta

Andersen

Injuries:

Ondrej Kase (Concussion Protocol)

Jaccob Slavin (Lower-Body Injury)

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

@zman77 wrong game thread

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Also, the last few OT games are prime examples of how important winning that opening faceoff is. We controlled possession for 90-95% of the OT period before scoring, because we won that opening draw.

The Sharks and the Kings put up 4 goals on us. They certainly could have easily scored in OT if they had possession. But they never did (in the SJ game) and I believe there was only 1 opportunity for the Kings.

Staal played only 30 seconds of OT in this game, but went 3/3 in the faceoff circle during that time. Aho lost the only one he took, to begin that powerplay.