The Umberger situation reminds me very much of the Gomez situation in Montreal.
Gomez had an OK first year in Montreal (59 points) and then dramatically fell off his second year (38 points). In his third year, the bottom fell out completely. He had 11 points in 39 games before an injury shut him down for the season.
The Canadiens continued to place Gomez in positions to succeed in terms of ice time. He got big minutes, plenty of PP time and had decent linemates until the end. The feeling which was publicly expressed by the coach-Jacques Martin- and the GM-Pierre Gauthier-was that ultimately Gomez would emerge from his funk. Gomez was only 30 years old in his second season with Montreal and didn't have any injury which was holding him back, so he didn't fit the profile of being "finished". The team had a ton of money invested in him, so with the combination of factors, the rationale behind continually playing him with big minutes and in key situations was completely understandable. Until the 3rd year, when it became obvious beyond a reasonable point that something had structurally changed about Gomez. At that point it was the proverbial "beating of the dead horse".
Umberger was also 30 when his production dropped dratically (from 57 to 40 points). This year, is well, dreadful. Like Gomez, Umberger's game has changed dramatically. Gomez went from a slick playmaker who could carry the puck in no time flat from the defensive zone into the offensive zone into a predictable, perimeter player with very little creativity in his game. Umberger has gone from an energetic player who created many of his opportunities from the traffic areas and enthusiastically battled for pucks to a lethargic and less aggressive player. He doesn't have anywhere near the slot presence he used to have. Not even close.
The Jackets are hoping that my analysis is dead wrong and I don't blame them one bit. If I were the coach or GM, I certainly would have been giving Umberger every opportunity to reestablish himself. He has had plenty of decent history, is relatively young and has a ton of $$ coming his way. I think, however, that they are now being counterproductive in doing so. He's not worthy of top line minutes and PP time. He needs to earn these minutes, not be given them because of $$ committed or past history. He's also taking minutes from players who need more ice time to gel in their new environment. The overuse of Umberger is helping no one, Umberger included.
In my final analysis, RJ Umberger is a player who just "lost it" at an early age. The money may have contributed to his demise, but there is no simple formula for determining the exact age at which a player loses his effectiveness. When athletes go permanently sour, it often times happens quickly. The notion of Umberger returning to the 20+ goal/50-55 point range does not seem reasonable to me. Once the Jeanie leaves the bottle it's very difficult to recapture her.
I would be hard-pressed to think of a GM who would take him right now. Perhaps the new CBA stipulation of the original club being able to pay 50% of a traded player's salary could tilt the equation, but I doubt it. The Gomez parallel is too recent and the declining salary cap doesn't help things one bit.