Buffalo Bills Post-Draft Discussion

[truthbluth]

PFN’s mock simulator is up.
First try
33: My sweet Ladd
60: JPJ
95: T’Vondrae Sweat
128: Audric Estime

 

[Jim Bob]

Brugler had Worthy as a 2nd/3rd round prospect and Legette as a 3rd round prospect.

It is interesting to me that Bills fans are upset that Beane got value to let other teams take non-1st round talent WRs in the 1st round.

PFN’s mock simulator is up.
First try
33: My sweet Ladd
60: JPJ
95: T’Vondrae Sweat
128: Audric Estime

I was mad because they wouldn't let me trade back from 33 to 36 with Washington no matter how hard I tried.

 

[Jim Bob]

Agent: Cousins confused by Falcons' Penix pick

The Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the NFL draft, a decision that caught Kirk Cousins off-guard, according to his agent.

www.espn.com

At least we aren't Falcons fans.

 

[Djp]

I am early to bed and early to rise person.

As a card carrying member of #TeamTradeBack, I am happy this morning.



And for everyone freaking out on Worthy to KC, if Beane wasn’t high on the guy, why worry about it?

Brugler, Joe Marino, Bruce Nolan, and others weren’t high on Worthy, either.

But but but.....he us fast

 

[brian_griffin]

I see a potential move up from 60 and/or the KC 3rd using some of our low day 3 picks

Agreed. I think it's likely.

SUMMARY:

Bills trade: 28, 133, 200, 248
Bills get: 33, 95, 141, 221

Tidy haul. Losing the 5th year option hurts a bit, but.....

5 spot drop from bottom 1 to literally top 2.......giant move from 4 to 3, giant move from 6 to 5 and a mild move up in 7.

So what we're left with:

Round 2: #33, 60
Round 3: #95
Round 4: #128
Round 5: 141, 144, 160, 163
Round 6: 204
Round 7: 221

I would not be surprised if BUF makes a ton of trades and - with even more picks in hand - ends up drafting 6 players total

In my opinion the true value of these moves is yet to come. In addition to most likely still getting the player we wanted at #28 at #33 (or beyond if we continue to deal) we also significantly upgraded our remaining tradebait picks for added ammo for more trades. Beane is nowhere near done, we can’t actually use all these picks but we can certainly make more deals to maximize them.

My predictions:

1. Trade back from #33. Too many teams will be calling. The challenge will be to do a 3-way with one of NE, ARI, WAS, so the calling team gets #33, BUF drops a couple spots and one of NE, ARI, WAS gets the calling team's 2nd, plus sweeteners. I can't see the Bills dropping lower than #36.

2. There will be no trade for a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk, etc. Bills can't afford the contract / cap, and even with a high likelihood of a re-sign in BUF to play with Allen, why take the chance when you could own a rookie deal for 4 years at a fraction of the cost?

3. I could see Beane being done by pick ~150 with 6 guys drafted, all through trade backs and move ups.

4. Ace will not follow-through on his promise to stop following the Bills.

 

[truthbluth]

I didn’t know that I enjoyed Jeremy White meltdowns so much. Never really got over the tank stupidity, I suppose.

 

[Djp]

I didn’t know that I enjoyed Jeremy White meltdowns so much. Never really got over the tank stupidity, I suppose.

Not local so I dont know the meltdown benchmark is

 

[BFLO]

We won both on here

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

70 pts between 1sts. About 80 between 3rd and 5th. Buffalo gained 10 pts and got a better 7th

Carolina pick ffg difference is 10 pts. Pick flip gain 20 pts

I'm aware we won both trades. I'm saying that the profits seemed kinda small.

A net of +12.5 on the KC trade. Equivalent value: Pick 197 a mid 6th rounder

+14.1 on the Carolina trade. Equivalent value: pick 192. A mid 6th rounder

+26.6 total. Equivalent value: pick 162, a mid 5th rounder.

Maybe it just seems low to me compared to trades like the +68.6 for the Jaguars with Vikings.

I think the mock draft fever gets people over hyped at certain prospects.

The draft is about good scouting and operating in volume.

Trust your scouts

We are going to get the same guy we wanted at 28 and got two more picks

We had 10 draft picks before the trades. We have 10 draft picks after the trades. We gained 0 draft picks.

 

[tsujimoto74]

We had 10 draft picks before the trades. We have 10 draft picks after the trades. We gained 0 draft picks.

We didn't need more picks -- there are only so many roster spots. What we got was better day 3 picks, so the guys we pick there have a better chance of being on that roster (rather than the practice squad or poached by another team). Or maybe we use some of those picks to draft up with our later 2nd.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Still hoping we draft a C.

 

[missingmika]

Agreed. I think it's likely.

I would not be surprised if BUF makes a ton of trades and - with even more picks in hand - ends up drafting 6 players total

My predictions:

1. Trade back from #33. Too many teams will be calling. The challenge will be to do a 3-way with one of NE, ARI, WAS, so the calling team gets #33, BUF drops a couple spots and one of NE, ARI, WAS gets the calling team's 2nd, plus sweeteners. I can't see the Bills dropping lower than #36.

2. There will be no trade for a Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk, etc. Bills can't afford the contract / cap, and even with a high likelihood of a re-sign in BUF to play with Allen, why take the chance when you could own a rookie deal for 4 years at a fraction of the cost?

3. I could see Beane being done by pick ~150 with 6 guys drafted, all through trade backs and move ups.

4. Ace will not follow-through on his promise to stop following the Bills.

I’d almost be upset if they don’t trade down.

DeJean, McKinstry, Mitchell, McConkey are all available and I would have took with the first round pick. Could drop back as far as 5/6 picks and still get one.

Bills kind of unlucky on the QB run. The pick today would have been a lot more valuable if teams were fighting for Nix/Penix if they dropped.

 

[BFLO]

We didn't need more picks -- there are only so many roster spots. What we got was better day 3 picks, so the guys we pick there have a better chance of being on that roster (rather than the practice squad or poached by another team). Or maybe we use some of those picks to draft up with our later 2nd.

I was responding to Doak saying we "got two more picks". As in going from 10 picks to 12. Which did not happen.

 

[buffa dud]

I didn’t know that I enjoyed Jeremy White meltdowns so much. Never really got over the tank stupidity, I suppose.

He genuinely sounds like a jilted adolescent.

The Bills moved down effectively four spots, and moved virtually their entire board up favorably and significantly. How can anyone be disappointed with this, when we're already drafting this late in the process? If history is any indication, the individual they draft at 28 isn't any more or less likely to succeed than the one that goes at 32 or 33.

 

[Fezzy126]

I didn’t know that I enjoyed Jeremy White meltdowns so much. Never really got over the tank stupidity, I suppose.

He did make a good point though - if the Bills were targeting a WR I doubt that they trade down with two different teams targeting a WR, and then trading down behind a third team that also took a WR.

It seems much more likely now that they grab a guy like Dejean or perhaps one of the IOL prospects.

 

[truthbluth]

He did make a good point though - if the Bills were targeting a WR I doubt that they trade down with two different teams targeting a WR, and then trading down behind a third team that also took a WR.

It seems much more likely now that they grab a guy like Dejean or perhaps one of the IOL prospects.

Could be. If so, I’m also fine with it.

 

[truthbluth]

A cursory review tells me the Bills are going to pick at 33. For all the talk about top of day 2 as a place where teams try to trade into, it very rarely happens. I believe it’s been moved on day 2 before the draft starts twice in the past 20 years. Both times were modest trade downs to around 40 for a 4th. Not enough value there for me.
Stay put and take your guy.

 

[Husko]

I would only trade down here if the value blows me out of the park. Another 5th wouldn’t move the needle for me

 

[Jim Bob]

But but but.....he us fast

I'm not going to lie, he was the WR that I was really intrigued by because of that 40 time and because he did get 100+ targets in three seasons at Texas.

But, Beane has his board and I'm not going to worry about it.

People act like if the Bills took Mitchell at 28 and the Chiefs either traded up to 29 or 30 for Worthy, or got him at 32, that it would somehow be OK.

The only way that Worthy wasn't going to KC is if the Bills took him. And the Bills obviously weren't that high on Worthy or Legette.

The last time Beane traded back twice was when he took Cook. And I like Cook.

I would only trade down here if the value blows me out of the park. Another 5th wouldn’t move the needle for me

I wonder if they move back 3 or 4 spots and figure that their guy will still be there.

Update:

I accepted this offer.

 

[Fezzy126]

Guys that seem to fit at #33OA that the Bills had Top 30 visits with:

• Cooper Dejean
• Keon Coleman
• They also reportedly had multiple meetings with McConkey, Newton, and Fiske

Worth noting that they met with a ton of WRs that seem to fit the #60OA range (Franklin, McMillan, Walker). Maybe Coleman fits in this range too, not sure because his projection is all over the place.

Also, I'll throw out a darkhorse candidate for them today:

There's quite a bit of wrestling in Frazier's background

 

[kirby11]

I think I'd only want them to trade back as far as 36 to guarantee at least one of Ladd/AD, JPJ, or DeJean would be available

 

[Fezzy126]

Nice list, although Robinson is already gone

 

[stokes84]

My initial thought process was that a trade back made the most sense, then I got hypnotized by the hype train. But there are still about 10 or 11 WRs available that are really good players. If they can move around the board and get three good players, I’ll be happy. There are two guys that are being slept on hard, and that’s Roman’s Wilson and Jermaine Burton. If you can get either of those guys in the late 2nd, it’s a home run.

 

[DolanPlsGoSabres]

Washington has 36 and 40. I wonder if 33+60+Day 3 ammo can get us there.

 

[OkimLom]

Agent: Cousins confused by Falcons' Penix pick

The Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the NFL draft, a decision that caught Kirk Cousins off-guard, according to his agent.

www.espn.com

At least we aren't Falcons fans.

As long as Cousin's contract is easy to get out of towards the backend of it, I think what they did was smart and good long term planning.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

He did make a good point though - if the Bills were targeting a WR I doubt that they trade down with two different teams targeting a WR, and then trading down behind a third team that also took a WR.

It seems much more likely now that they grab a guy like Dejean or perhaps one of the IOL prospects.

Either that - or they have a guy higher on their board than they suspect other teams do.

Legette to Carolina was almost an accepted fact. KC drafting Worthy was hardly a surprise either. The only guy who was, is Pearsall - and i strongly doubt he was that high on the Bills' board given the style / type of player he is.

My initial thought process was that a trade back made the most sense, then I got hypnotized by the hype train. But there are still about 10 or 11 WRs available that are really good players. If they can move around the board and get three good players, I’ll be happy. There are two guys that are being slept on hard, and that’s Roman’s Wilson and Jermaine Burton. If you can get either of those guys in the late 2nd, it’s a home run.

Given that Wilson is very slot heavy i don't think he'd be a fit though.

Burton will be a steal for someone. But do you see them looking past the off field stuff? That's the reason why I'm assuming both he & Tevondre Sweat won't even be considered.