GDT: UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane

[CDJ]

Francis vs Jake Paul

 

[CDJ]

Also an under-discussed thing from last night is how validated Francis was in making his coaching switch

 

[pistolpete11]

Francis could likely do one celebrity fight with Fury/Wilder and make more than he has/can in his entire UFC career, so I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility we see that. Yeah he won’t win, but he’ll walk away a rich man just like McGregor did.

I guess I have a hard time wrapping my mind around how much he'd make boxing because I don't know who the hell would pay to see that.

Conor-Floyd was bad enough, but that one was way more understandable. Floyd was old and had been retired for years, Conor is bigger, Conor's boxing is nowhere near Floyd but he can still box, and those are the 2 best self promotors in the fight business.

Fury is at his peak and the active best HW in the world, Fury is bigger than Francis, Francis can't even really box he just has a big punch, and I like Francis and he has an incredible backstory, but he doesn't add anything when promoting a fight.

 

[Islay1989]

If there's anytime for Jon Jones to enter the heavyweight pool, this is it.

Imagine being Stipe and this piece of human filth is above you in the pecking order.

 

[SuperScript29]

Imagine being Stipe and this piece of human filth is above you in the pecking order.

Human filth a side, Stipe lost his last fight to Francis, Jones is undefeated.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

I guess I have a hard time wrapping my mind around how much he'd make boxing because I don't know who the hell would pay to see that.

Conor-Floyd was bad enough, but that one was way more understandable. Floyd was old and had been retired for years, Conor is bigger, Conor's boxing is nowhere near Floyd but he can still box, and those are the 2 best self promotors in the fight business.

Fury is at his peak and the active best HW in the world, Fury is bigger than Francis, Francis can't even really box he just has a big punch, and I like Francis and he has an incredible backstory, but he doesn't add anything when promoting a fight.

I get what you’re saying, but people are down for these gimmick fights whether we like them or not. Ngannou has no chance against boxers his size, for sure.

It’s like driving by a car wreck, no one should look but everyone does.

 

[m9]

Ngannou has three things going for him here in terms of looking outside the UFC:

1) Tyson Fury seems legitimately interested in fighting him. I think Fury knows that even though Ngannou isn't a massive name, he's still bigger or around the same as most of his boxing options. Combine that with Ngannou being a much easier fight and I can see the appeal for him. Basically, all the same reasons that Mayweather took on Conor.

2) Jake Paul continues to go out of his way to embarrass Dana White, and it would be a massive FU to the UFC for him and his team to sign their reigning champ Ngannou to a short deal in either boxing or MMA. I think he could pay Ngannou something like 5 million for a fight and get it done. You would have to figure out the right opponent and all that but it is definitely possible.

3) Never underestimate other MMA organizations making bad, short-term decisions. The past of MMA is littered with organizations who overpaid someone to try to make a splash and then never really capitalized on it.

At the end of the day, personally I have very little interest in any of the above happening. I hope Ngannou is able to use all of this as leverage and then signs a big deal with the UFC to secure his financial future.

The article posted above by @Chaels Arms does give us a pretty good idea of what Ngannou could be looking if he sticks around and the Jon Jones fight is on the table next. This is the most fascinating thing to come out of the article, though it's been guessed before:

---
Also, the standard pay-per-view bonus is apparently unchanged. The typical pay-per-view bonus (for the few fighters that have it in their contracts) is still paid out to a fighter defending a UFC title and championship belt, and covers any domestic pay-per-view buys plus any international that charge at least the equivalent of $40 US after conversion. Based on the sample of contracts available to me, the standard bonus remains:

One dollar ($1.00) for each pay-per-view buy between 200,000 buys and 400,000 buys; and Two dollars ($2.00) for each pay-per-view buy between 400,000 buys and 600,000 buys; and Two dollars and Fifty Cents ($2.50) for each pay-per- view buy over 600,000 buys.
---

If we guess Jones/Ngannou is a million buys (high, but possible) you would be looking at potentially 1.6 million in bonuses. Ngannou should be able to negotiate a solid raise from his current purse, so you should be looking at maybe 2.5-3 million for that fight as a starting point? I wonder what is the number that actually works for both sides here. 4 or 5 million?

​

 

[chicagoskycam]

I get what you’re saying, but people are down for these gimmick fights whether we like them or not. Ngannou has no chance against boxers his size, for sure.

It’s like driving by a car wreck, no one should look but everyone does.

We are definitely down for those gimmick fights as far as watching them, paying for them is an entirely different story.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

We are definitely down for those gimmick fights as far as watching them, paying for them is an entirely different story.

We say that and yet they’re making tons of money. Anything attached to Fury/Wilder vs Ngannou is going to sell. Obviously not in the same stratosphere as Mayweather vs McGregor but more than enough to make Francis a rich man.

 

[Islay1989]

Human filth a side, Stipe lost his last fight to Francis, Jones is undefeated.

He also beat Francis. And what exactly has Jones done? Barely won his last two fights.

 

[Moncherry]

Watched some highlights and Gane landed more on Ngannou than I remember. Closer than I thought considering Ngannou didn't do much on the ground.

I guess I have a hard time wrapping my mind around how much he'd make boxing because I don't know who the hell would pay to see that.

Conor-Floyd was bad enough, but that one was way more understandable. Floyd was old and had been retired for years, Conor is bigger, Conor's boxing is nowhere near Floyd but he can still box, and those are the 2 best self promotors in the fight business.

Fury is at his peak and the active best HW in the world, Fury is bigger than Francis, Francis can't even really box he just has a big punch, and I like Francis and he has an incredible backstory, but he doesn't add anything when promoting a fight.

I completely disagree. Ngannou vs Fury is no worse of a mismatch than MayMac and I daresay Ngannou even has more of a chance to win than Conor did, because the realistic chance of a KO is actually there. HW Boxing is a different game, the disparity between skill vs power is greatly reduced compared to the other divisions. Fury is a vastly superior boxer to Wilder and he still got knocked down and nearly KO'd multiple times. Plenty of other examples from HW Boxing history where the superior/more skilled boxer succumbed to the puncher.

With regards to MayMac, Conor never had anything for Floyd, his alleged power and boxing ability were completely overblown. Ngannou might not have shit for Fury in a pure boxing match, but the odds of Ngannou catching Fury with a bomb are much greater in my view. Fury might be the best or most skilled HW but that's not the same thing as a bout at the lower weights where the MMA fighter has to go up against one of best defensive and top p4p boxers ever.

In terms of market appeal, I'd say there is definitely a selling point for the reigning UFC HW champion crossing over to Boxing and fighting the HW champion no matter how much of a mismatch it is, especially when the UFC fighter is renowned for his KO ability. Not that it will be as big a deal as MayMac, but I think you're either underestimating it's marketability or letting your own personal opinion of the fight cloud your judgement as to it's ability to catch the interest of the casual fan.

 

[Epictetus]

Dana White in hiding?

 

[Moncherry]

Also RE: Ngannou vs Jones

I've read a lot of takes in this thread and elsewhere about how this fight makes people lean towards Jon as the favorite? Don't see how that's the case. Ngannou is evolving his game and getting better at wrestling/grappling in addition to becoming a more patient and tactical striker, how does that favor Jones? It was a dangerous fight for him when Francis was a one-dimensional brawler, it's even worse for him now.

 

[SuperScript29]

I'm starting to believe Dana may be dealing with something personal. He has had plenty of conflicts with fighters in the past and he doesn't usually shy away from the media.

 

[member 51464]

Also RE: Ngannou vs Jones

I've read a lot of takes in this thread and elsewhere about how this fight makes people lean towards Jon as the favorite? Don't see how that's the case. Ngannou is evolving his game and getting better at wrestling/grappling in addition to becoming a more patient and tactical striker, how does that favor Jones? It was a dangerous fight for him when Francis was a one-dimensional brawler, it's even worse for him now.

Ngannou has not yet mastered overcoming vicious yet unpenalized eye pokes. It is a different kind of adversity.

 

[pistolpete11]

I completely disagree. Ngannou vs Fury is no worse of a mismatch than MayMac and I daresay Ngannou even has more of a chance to win than Conor did, because the realistic chance of a KO is actually there. HW Boxing is a different game, the disparity between skill vs power is greatly reduced compared to the other divisions. Fury is a vastly superior boxer to Wilder and he still got knocked down and nearly KO'd multiple times. Plenty of other examples from HW Boxing history where the superior/more skilled boxer succumbed to the puncher.

With regards to MayMac, Conor never had anything for Floyd, his alleged power and boxing ability were completely overblown. Ngannou might not have shit for Fury in a pure boxing match, but the odds of Ngannou catching Fury with a bomb are much greater in my view. Fury might be the best or most skilled HW but that's not the same thing as a bout at the lower weights where the MMA fighter has to go up against one of best defensive and top p4p boxers ever.

In terms of market appeal, I'd say there is definitely a selling point for the reigning UFC HW champion crossing over to Boxing and fighting the HW champion no matter how much of a mismatch it is, especially when the UFC fighter is renowned for his KO ability. Not that it will be as big a deal as MayMac, but I think you're either underestimating it's marketability or letting your own personal opinion of the fight cloud your judgement as to it's ability to catch the interest of the casual fan.

I think you're right that it is 2 different discussions. 1) Does he have a chance to win? and 2) Can he make a lot of money either way?

To 1), I don't count "Hey, anything can happen" as having a real chance. Francis isn't a good boxer. He just has devastating power and in MMA, that's enough. But we just watched him not be able to land anything of significance on Gane. It's not going to get any easier against Fury and Francis can't resort to wrestling.

To 2), I have no doubt there is a market for it. I don't even doubt it's his single biggest payday he can get. I just question how much it actually would be and if it's more than if he stayed with the UFC and used his leverage to get a new deal and whatever other concessions he's looking for.

 

[I am not exposed]

I think you're right that it is 2 different discussions. 1) Does he have a chance to win? and 2) Can he make a lot of money either way?

To 1), I don't count "Hey, anything can happen" as having a real chance. Francis isn't a good boxer. He just has devastating power and in MMA, that's enough. But we just watched him not be able to land anything of significance on Gane. It's not going to get any easier against Fury and Francis can't resort to wrestling.

To 2), I have no doubt there is a market for it. I don't even doubt it's his single biggest payday he can get. I just question how much it actually would be and if it's more than if he stayed with the UFC and used his leverage to get a new deal and whatever other concessions he's looking for.

Agreed.

Fury would absolutely clown Francis.

 

[Jasper]

Also RE: Ngannou vs Jones

I've read a lot of takes in this thread and elsewhere about how this fight makes people lean towards Jon as the favorite? Don't see how that's the case. Ngannou is evolving his game and getting better at wrestling/grappling in addition to becoming a more patient and tactical striker, how does that favor Jones? It was a dangerous fight for him when Francis was a one-dimensional brawler, it's even worse for him now.

Jones loses one of his biggest advantages at HW which is his massive frame size. He dwarfed a lot of the guys he fought at LHW and tended to have more trouble against the guys closer to his size. This on top of the fact that I don't think he's the same fighter he was years ago, nearly losing his last few fights, I don't think it's going to go well for him if he ever actually fights a top HW.

 

[m9]

I thought Gane was basically tracking as a HW version of late-career Jon Jones anyway, so him losing to Ngannou is definitely something to keep in mind.

The part that gives me a bit of pause however is I just didn't really like how Ngannou looked in this fight. He looked too slow to hang with Gane on the feet for half the fight, and then resorted to basically just lay-and-pray against a guy in Gane who just doesn't have the wrestling/grappling experience to do anything about it. I'm sure the injury played into it, but I do think the speed of Gane would have been an issue anyway. I think Jones can present similar issues.

The other thing about Jones is that there's a decent chance that his wrestling will translate to HW based on the Cormier fights. Cormier's wrestling translated just fine to HW and Jones did just fine wrestling with Cormier. Obviously not an exact science, but it's at least a place to start. I certainly trust his wrestling more than what Gane showed this weekend.

 

[CDJ]

Thought this was fascinating

Stamann getting all the way up to 160 is wild

Gane somehow losing weight between weigh-ins and the fight is even more wild

 

[Moncherry]

I think you're right that it is 2 different discussions. 1) Does he have a chance to win? and 2) Can he make a lot of money either way?

To 1), I don't count "Hey, anything can happen" as having a real chance. Francis isn't a good boxer. He just has devastating power and in MMA, that's enough. But we just watched him not be able to land anything of significance on Gane. It's not going to get any easier against Fury and Francis can't resort to wrestling.

To 2), I have no doubt there is a market for it. I don't even doubt it's his single biggest payday he can get. I just question how much it actually would be and if it's more than if he stayed with the UFC and used his leverage to get a new deal and whatever other concessions he's looking for.

With regards to his chances against Fury, I only meant that he was no worse off than Conor was against Floyd, since you made that comparison. I think it would be just as valid from a competitive standpoint. I wouldn't expect Francis to win either way.

However, I will also note that as slick as Fury is for a big man, he's far from being unhittable. We saw that against Wilder, and he even got busted up by an unknown boxer in one of his tune-up fights and nearly lost. You're right that Ngannou will only have the avenue of landing a big punch to win, but I think that point cuts both ways. All he has to worry about is boxing, not chasing someone around keeping him at bay with kicks and the like, and a boxing ring is much smaller than the Octagon. Again, not that I would expect him to win, but I don't think it's out of the question that he could land something.

He would also definitely make more from a fight against Fury than any fight in the UFC. I doubt the UFC will ever pay him what he could get from such a high profile Boxing match if they didn't shell out that kind of money for much more established draws like Jones or Lesnar.

 

[pistolpete11]

With regards to his chances against Fury, I only meant that he was no worse off than Conor was against Floyd, since you made that comparison. I think it would be just as valid from a competitive standpoint. I wouldn't expect Francis to win either way.

However, I will also note that as slick as Fury is for a big man, he's far from being unhittable. We saw that against Wilder, and he even got busted up by an unknown boxer in one of his tune-up fights and nearly lost. You're right that Ngannou will only have the avenue of landing a big punch to win, but I think that point cuts both ways. All he has to worry about is boxing, not chasing someone around keeping him at bay with kicks and the like, and a boxing ring is much smaller than the Octagon. Again, not that I would expect him to win, but I don't think it's out of the question that he could land something.

Saying Francis has a better shot against Fury than Conor did against Floyd is like saying I have a better shot at landing Scarlett Johansson than my ugly friend. While probably true, it doesn't mean anything because it ain't gonna happen

I think you're underestimating just how big of a skill difference there is between guys that have been training exclusively boxing for 20+ years and Francis who's been training MMA for 8 or 9 years. Wilder is considered an anomaly because he got into boxing late, but he's still been training it since 2005. That's almost 10 years longer than Francis has been training and again, he's exclusively focused on boxing.

He would also definitely make more from a fight against Fury than any fight in the UFC. I doubt the UFC will ever pay him what he could get from such a high profile Boxing match if they didn't shell out that kind of money for much more established draws like Jones or Lesnar.

As I said, I don't doubt it's the single biggest payday he can get. But he wouldn't be re-signing with the UFC for 1 fight.

 

[pistolpete11]

I haven't really seen anything from Francis since the first Stipe/Lewis fight that changes my opinion on how a fight with Jones would go. His wrestling is leaps and bounds better than it was against Stipe in the first fight, but I don't know that it's good enough to really change anything. Jones will still be the superior wrestler, by far.

Having said that, I don't really have an opinion on how that fight would go. I mean, I do, but it's gone back and fourth the last couple of years. It could be different tomorrow. I think it's a great fight where both guys have a path to victory and I hope we get to see it.

 

[Chaels Arms]

I read an article where Francis said he left "$7 million" on the table by not resigning. I don't know exactly how he's calculating that number but that's what he put out there.

Fury and Canelo get what, $30-40 million per fight? Francis got $600k for this last fight before the PPV points. Figure the UFC gives him a sizeable raise on a new contract. Even if Ngannou takes one boxing match for $20-25 million he probably makes more money in that one fight than over the course of an entire new UFC deal.

The other problem is that even if Francis reups with the UFC it's entirely possible (I would even say probable) that the UFC never comes to terms with the other half of the most lucrative fight Ngannou will probably ever have the chance to get in the UFC which is Jones. So now he's fighting guys like Lewis, Gane, Stipe for the next few years and tbh I don't think any of those fights, even if Ngannou retains the belt, are big time PPV sellers. And how likely is Dana to give Ngannou a PPV boost by throwing him on a Conor or Nate card after all that's transpired? Ngannou v. Stipe 2 did not do well in PPV buys. If I was Ngannou I probably would want to see some sort of agreement worked out with Jones before re-committing to the UFC long term.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I read an article where Francis said he left "$7 million" on the table by not resigning. I don't know exactly how he's calculating that number but that's what he put out there.

Fury and Canelo get what, $30-40 million per fight? Francis got $600k for this last fight before the PPV points. Figure the UFC gives him a sizeable raise on a new contract. Even if Ngannou takes one boxing match for $20-25 million he probably makes more money in that one fight than over the course of an entire new UFC deal.

The other problem is that even if Francis reups with the UFC it's entirely possible (I would even say probable) that the UFC never comes to terms with the other half of the most lucrative fight Ngannou will probably ever have the chance to get in the UFC which is Jones. So now he's fighting guys like Lewis, Gane, Stipe for the next few years and tbh I don't think any of those fights, even if Ngannou retains the belt, are big time PPV sellers. And how likely is Dana to give Ngannou a PPV boost by throwing him on a Conor or Nate card after all that's transpired? Ngannou v. Stipe 2 did not do well in PPV buys. If I was Ngannou I probably would want to see some sort of agreement worked out with Jones before re-committing to the UFC long term.

25m in 1 boxing match would probably be more than he'd make for the rest of his career in the UFC.