GDT: UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane

[Avs_19]

Date: January 22, 2022
Venue: Honda Center
City: Anaheim, California
Time: 10 pm ET/ 7 pm PT
Viewing: PPV

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Heavyweight Championship bout: Francis Ngannou (c) vs. Ciryl Gane (ic)
Flyweight Championship bout: Brandon Moreno (c) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Welterweight bout: Michel Pereira vs. André Fialho
Bantamweight bout: Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Middleweight bout: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Wellington Turman

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, TSN 5)

Bantamweight bout: Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Featherweight bout: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Jourdain
Welterweight bout: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Pete Rodriguez
Welterweight bout: Trevin Giles vs. Michael Morales

PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass)

Bantamweight bout: Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira
Women's Strawweight bout: Silvana Gomez Juarez vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Lightweight bout: Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez
Women's Flyweight bout: Kay Hansen vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius​

Click to read more...

 

[I am not exposed]

Rooting for Gane, but got Ngannou winning.

Last I checked wasn't Gane the slight favourite? That surprised me.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Rooting for Gane, but got Ngannou winning.

Last I checked wasn't Gane the slight favourite? That surprised me.

Me too. I'm thinking about putting some cash down on Ngannou.

A lot of the arguments in favor of Gane (better footwork, better ground game, better gas tank) were the same arguments in favor of Stipe as well. I'm not saying Gane and Stipe are the same fighter but I feel like Ngannou isn't getting the credit he deserves for defeating Stipe in such decisive fashion (and stopping his takedown attempts with extreme prejudice). I also wonder if there is some recency bias going on with the betting odds with Gane having gotten two more wins since Ngannou's last fight.

The only thing that worries me a bit is whether this contract dispute has gotten Ngannou off his game a little bit.

Also, there's 8 debuting fighters on this PPV which is the most in a long time per the MMA Hour podcast today.

 

[Perennial]

Outside of the 4 guys in the title fights, I've never heard of any of the fighters on the card...

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Stipe is much sloppier than Gane. Taking nothing away from him, but Stipe was willing to take damage and get in firefights with guys. Gane doesn't do that. That's a key distinction when comparing the two.

This fight could conceivably either make or cost Ngannou tens of millions of dollars. Whether that plays a factor is anyone's guess, but you could argue this is the single most important fight for a fighter from a financial perspective, ever.

 

[MMC]

Horrifically weak card but I could not care less because I’ve been excited for months to finally be able to work a UFC event. Put in a level request to work the floor, not sure if it’ll be granted but I’ll certainly be somewhere I can watch and I can’t wait.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Rooting for Gane, but got Ngannou winning.

Last I checked wasn't Gane the slight favourite? That surprised me.

I've been thinking about it and I think that if Ngannou wins it's going to be by KO.. if it goes to decision most likely Gane wins but there's also a chance he KO's Ngannou.

I've been debating how's to bet this fight and I saw this on Twitter and it lines up with my thinking about how it's going to go.



Ngannou is +145 by KO
Gane is +300 by decision

So throw some money on both could still end up with profit.

I'm rooting for Moreno in the co-main but for some reason my gut is telling me Figueiredo is going to win. Friday is going to be huge for this fight cause Figgy historically struggles cutting weight. He was supposedly in the hospital before the first fight and in the second fight he literally showed up 60 seconds before the weigh in dead line and said it was a rough cut post fight. Not to mention him missing weight for the first vacant title fight vs Benavidez. I saw an interview yesterday where he said his cut is going well he was currently at 135lbs if he makes weight comfortably I might wager on him.

Outside of the two title fights it's tough to gauge with so many new fighters it's pretty much a crap shoot. Frevola is a local kid so I'll be rooting for him to bounce back from his last big loss.

Jack Della Maddalena I remember from DWCS he was pretty dominant on that. A lot of people are hyped to see Topuria fight so there's that.

Either way should be a solid night.

 

[Jasper]

Horrifically weak card but I could not care less because I’ve been excited for months to finally be able to work a UFC event. Put in a level request to work the floor, not sure if it’ll be granted but I’ll certainly be somewhere I can watch and I can’t wait.

Thankfully the main events are still intact. They don't get much better if you ask me.

 

[CDJ]

Fialho is solid, happy to see him get a look in the ufc. Watched him send James Vick into retirement on some YouTube promotion. On a 4 fight KO streak. Pereira is back flip dude

Said-Stamann should feature solid grappling

Vieira vs Turman will be ok just because it’s interesting seeing specialists IMO

Jourdain has balls taking Topuria on short notice

 

[pistolpete11]

There's no other way to put it. This card sucks outside of the top 2, but those are some good fights.

I'll pick Francis, but I don't feel confident in that. I think Francis needs to throw caution to the wind a little bit. Gane is a big, strong dude, but I don't think he has the one hitter quitter type of power. Francis might need to eat a few to land one, but as we've seen over and over again, 1 is enough from Francis with the lone exception of Stipe. If he sits back and looks for his openings, I think that's playing into Gane's game.

I got Moreno and I feel much more confident in that one. Moreno made a huge jump from the first fight to the second. I think his confidence that he can fight at that level and that he can eat Fig's best shots put him over the top. He's better on the floor, can at minimum hang on the feet, has got an iron chin, is scrappy as all hell, and is still relatively young and getting better. Fig is old for the division. What we've seen is probably what we're going to get. That might still be enough to pull out a win, mind you. We also have the history of trilogy's, though, with whatever high percentage of the guy winning the second fight also winning the third. I think Moreno is the safer bet.

 

[pistolpete11]

Me too. I'm thinking about putting some cash down on Ngannou.

A lot of the arguments in favor of Gane (better footwork, better ground game, better gas tank) were the same arguments in favor of Stipe as well. I'm not saying Gane and Stipe are the same fighter but I feel like Ngannou isn't getting the credit he deserves for defeating Stipe in such decisive fashion (and stopping his takedown attempts with extreme prejudice). I also wonder if there is some recency bias going on with the betting odds with Gane having gotten two more wins since Ngannou's last fight.

The only thing that worries me a bit is whether this contract dispute has gotten Ngannou off his game a little bit.

Also, there's 8 debuting fighters on this PPV which is the most in a long time per the MMA Hour podcast today.

As someone picking Francis and a huge Stipe fan, let me play devil's advocate.

Stipe's and Gane's games are too different for the comparison to apply. Their advantages are similar in a general sense, but when applied, they are drastically different.

Stipe is much more flat footed and does his best in boxing range. Gane is bouncing, light on his feet, wants to be in kick boxing range and get in and out. That puts Stipe in the danger zone much more and I think that shows in the stats. He's absorbing nearly 1.5 strikes a min more than Gane even though Gane is landing about 0.5 strikes per min more than Stipe. So yeah, Stipe's footwork is better than Francis', but it's not as good or similar in style as Gane.

Ground game, I don't know a ton about Gane's ground game to be honest. I'm curious to see if he uses it or if he sticks to his strengths and tries to make it a kick boxing match. Taking Francis down and making him work is one way to tire him out, but Gane could also make him chase him around the octagon and swing and miss.

Gas tank is still an open question for Francis. Stipe didn't make him work a whole lot in R1 of the second fight and then Francis got him out of there. What happens once the fight goes into the 3rd or 4th or 5th? I think Francis' power will always be there, but the explosiveness and quickness might not be there any more to actually land that shot. We don't know.

I'd also add that Gane is bigger than Stipe. Gane weighed in at 247lb against Lewis. Stipe weighed in at 234lb against Francis the second time. It's true Stipe slimmed down (arguably too much), but Gane is shredded even at 247lb. People question if Stipe could make 205. There's no chance in hell Gane is ever weighing 205lb.

 

[chicagoskycam]

There's no other way to put it. This card sucks outside of the top 2, but those are some good fights.

I'll pick Francis, but I don't feel confident in that. I think Francis needs to throw caution to the wind a little bit. Gane is a big, strong dude, but I don't think he has the one hitter quitter type of power. Francis might need to eat a few to land one, but as we've seen over and over again, 1 is enough from Francis with the lone exception of Stipe. If he sits back and looks for his openings, I think that's playing into Gane's game.

I got Moreno and I feel much more confident in that one. Moreno made a huge jump from the first fight to the second. I think his confidence that he can fight at that level and that he can eat Fig's best shots put him over the top. He's better on the floor, can at minimum hang on the feet, has got an iron chin, is scrappy as all hell, and is still relatively young and getting better. Fig is old for the division. What we've seen is probably what we're going to get. That might still be enough to pull out a win, mind you. We also have the history of trilogy's, though, with whatever high percentage of the guy winning the second fight also winning the third. I think Moreno is the safer bet.

This card is like a DWCS episode with two title fights at the top, not something I would want to pony up money for on a PPV. I'm kind of over Moreno/fig at this point as well. Hopefully, the other fights are good or produce some interesting contenders.

For Ngannou and Gane, I really have no idea what happens here. The easy bet for me was this doesn't go the distance but the odds suck, -280. It should be entertaining either way. As far as the posts above betting the KO and Gane to win going the distance, I always get screwed on these when a hurt fighter gets choked out.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Stipe is much sloppier than Gane. Taking nothing away from him, but Stipe was willing to take damage and get in firefights with guys. Gane doesn't do that. That's a key distinction when comparing the two.

I just read this back. Absolutely not intended to be witty. Just subconsciously used that term. Man that was cringe. Lol. Pretend I said slugfests.

 

[Chaels Arms]

As someone picking Francis and a huge Stipe fan, let me play devil's advocate.

Stipe's and Gane's games are too different for the comparison to apply. Their advantages are similar in a general sense, but when applied, they are drastically different.

Stipe is much more flat footed and does his best in boxing range. Gane is bouncing, light on his feet, wants to be in kick boxing range and get in and out. That puts Stipe in the danger zone much more and I think that shows in the stats. He's absorbing nearly 1.5 strikes a min more than Gane even though Gane is landing about 0.5 strikes per min more than Stipe. So yeah, Stipe's footwork is better than Francis', but it's not as good or similar in style as Gane.

Ground game, I don't know a ton about Gane's ground game to be honest. I'm curious to see if he uses it or if he sticks to his strengths and tries to make it a kick boxing match. Taking Francis down and making him work is one way to tire him out, but Gane could also make him chase him around the octagon and swing and miss.

Gas tank is still an open question for Francis. Stipe didn't make him work a whole lot in R1 of the second fight and then Francis got him out of there. What happens once the fight goes into the 3rd or 4th or 5th? I think Francis' power will always be there, but the explosiveness and quickness might not be there any more to actually land that shot. We don't know.

I'd also add that Gane is bigger than Stipe. Gane weighed in at 247lb against Lewis. Stipe weighed in at 234lb against Francis the second time. It's true Stipe slimmed down (arguably too much), but Gane is shredded even at 247lb. People question if Stipe could make 205. There's no chance in hell Gane is ever weighing 205lb.

Stipe also had to take on Ngannou in that second fight in the smaller octagon which was not ideal for him. I remember watching that fight and thinking every time Stipe took one step backwards he was already against the fence.

I just never like going with fighters whose gameplan requires them to be perfect defensively and I do think that's the case here for Gane just like it was for Stipe. Gane is an incredible fighter but I don't see him having the finishing ability to take Ngannou out early which means he's going to have to deal with an energized Ngannou for at least a few rounds without getting touched by anything and I don't think that's possible with this version of Ngannou.

 

[pistolpete11]

This card is like a DWCS episode with two title fights at the top, not something I would want to pony up money for on a PPV. I'm kind of over Moreno/fig at this point as well. Hopefully, the other fights are good or produce some interesting contenders.

For Ngannou and Gane, I really have no idea what happens here. The easy bet for me was this doesn't go the distance but the odds suck, -280. It should be entertaining either way. As far as the posts above betting the KO and Gane to win going the distance, I always get screwed on these when a hurt fighter gets choked out.

I'm not dying to see Moreno-Fig for a third time either, but it's still a quality fight where both guys have a chance.

There has been some talk about whether the UFC purposely made this a shitty card to drive down Francis' asking price. I'm not saying that's what they did. They still want to make money of course, but they have their guarantee from ESPN and I think the main event alone is enough for hardcores to buy it. If they can take a short term hit to lock down Francis for the next several years, might be worth it.

 

[pistolpete11]

Stipe also had to take on Ngannou in that second fight in the smaller octagon which was not ideal for him. I remember watching that fight and thinking every time Stipe took one step backwards he was already against the fence.

I just never like going with fighters whose gameplan requires them to be perfect defensively and I do think that's the case here for Gane just like it was for Stipe. Gane is an incredible fighter but I don't see him having the finishing ability to take Ngannou out early which means he's going to have to deal with an energized Ngannou for at least a few rounds without getting touched by anything and I don't think that's possible with this version of Ngannou.

I've switched my stance on the power vs. volume debate.

I used to think if the only advantage you have is power, you weren't as good of a fighter. It might give you a puncher's chance, but ultimately, skills win fights.

Then, there were a bunch of fights around the same time that I was wrong about where the 'power' guy won. I can't remember the others, but the one that really stood out to me was Poirier-Max 2. Poirier is obviously very skilled as well, but I'm still not sure I'd say he is more skilled than Max. His power, even without KOing him, is what won him that fight, though.

It's obviously more complex than just picking the guy with more power, but power matters and nobody has more power than Big Francis.

 

[chicagoskycam]

I'm not dying to see Moreno-Fig for a third time either, but it's still a quality fight where both guys have a chance.

There has been some talk about whether the UFC purposely made this a shitty card to drive down Francis' asking price. I'm not saying that's what they did. They still want to make money of course, but they have their guarantee from ESPN and I think the main event alone is enough for hardcores to buy it. If they can take a short term hit to lock down Francis for the next several years, might be worth it.

Does that do anything for them? I don't know all the details about the ESPN deal but I think I did read they have incentives for their PPV's to do well. I think they were having a tough time getting guys signed for this card and they got pushed, Hardy got injured not that anyone cares that much about them. I thought it was kind of shady Hardy was still listed on this card up until a few days ago.

Isn't this Francis' last fight under contract if he loses? Like he may be in a better position with a loss here.

 

[CDJ]

My prediction is that Gane pieces him up for 2.5 rounds with Rogan and DC going nuts over how good he looks then we’ll all blink and when our eyes open back up Gane will be in the land of wind and ghosts

my 125 pick depends on the weight cut Figgy has

 

[m9]

The UFC didn't purposely make this a bad card, but they also are realistic.

The one part I do think is true - no way were they adding Nate/Poirier to this card as that fight would cost them a ton of money. Both those guys would want PPV points and then you are basically giving Ngannou a massive pay bump for free as he's already signed his contract.

The original card had Cannonier/Brunson, Evloev/Topuria, Grasso/Araujo and Hardy/Oleinik along with the two title fights. Pretty solid card. You can maybe question them moving Cannonier/Brunson, but they tried with this card it just fell apart.

Plus.. this card is basically going heads up with the best football weekend of the year including 49ers/Packers which will be running pretty much at the same time. Whether or not they did it on purpose, they've basically created a scenario where it's "hey watch football all day and then come watch our 2 title fights".

 

[Moncherry]

I wouldn't put it past the UFC intentionally building a weaker card as a ploy to harm Ngannou's bargaining position. I don't really care about whatever they fill the rest of the card with though, the main event is better than almost anything else the UFC can put on.

 

[m9]

Wish I had more to offer in fight analysis, but this card is pretty straight-forward to me.

Ngannou & Gane both have clear paths to victory and I would be lying if I said I knew which guy is going to win. Gun to my head I'm taking Gane, simply because we've seen ways that Ngannou has lost before. Gane is just so unique - his run really reminds me of what Jon Jones did when he came to the UFC. Just pitching perfect games against everyone and has shown a diverse skillset along the way.

Moreno is rightly the guy in the co-main and I don't know why they even made this fight again, but whatever. The weight cut is the big concern but I'm not discounting Figueiredo in this one.

The rest of the card is just designed kind of strange to me. You have a legit top prospect in Topuria kind of buried in the middle of the prelims. Barcelos and Vieira both looked really promising and then laid eggs in their last fight. Then a bunch of decent guys but nothing really to really get you excited. There's no big 3rd fight on the main card to get me excited, no super fun lead-off fight on the main card, no big prelim main event. It's just a bunch of fights that I'm kind of into.

 

[pistolpete11]

Does that do anything for them? I don't know all the details about the ESPN deal but I think I did read they have incentives for their PPV's to do well. I think they were having a tough time getting guys signed for this card and they got pushed, Hardy got injured not that anyone cares that much about them. I thought it was kind of shady Hardy was still listed on this card up until a few days ago.

Isn't this Francis' last fight under contract if he loses? Like he may be in a better position with a loss here.

They definitely have an incentive to sell more PPV's, but I don't know if there is a difference when they are sold. I don't know the details of the ESPN deal either, but I imagine they have a yearly target they are trying to meet and not so much a per event target. For example, if they made this a respectable PPV card and it sells 400k and UFC 271 sells 400k. Is that any different than if they strip this one down, it sells 200k, and they load up UFC 271 and it sells 600k? I'm suggesting it is that simple, but I think you get the point.

Also, it could be that they knew this was going to be a hard card to build and they targeted Francis to headline it.

It could also be I'm reading too much into and it just kind of fell apart on them



I've heard mixed things on if this is Francis' last fight if he loses. I'm not sure anybody really knows.

 

[m9]

The UFC has kind of done this "2-4 big PPVs a year and the rest are just whatever" thing for awhile now. I'm sure the ESPN deal has made it easier. Ngannou kind of has to be the main event of the PPV but there also isn't any proof that he's a PPV star yet so you're immediately a bit limited. That's on the UFC with their interim belt thing and failing to promote Ngannou last year, though.

I will say if they were really trying to bury Ngannou, why move Moreno's title defense into the co-main? That's a very solid co-main and might even give a decent PPV bump given Moreno's demographics who may not usually order the PPV.

I don't know, I don't really buy it. But I do buy that there is no way they were giving him that Diaz/Poirier bonus bump either. I think they've just kind of designed this to be an average PPV like most of them.

 

[16Skippy]

Outside of the 4 guys in the title fights, I've never heard of any of the fighters on the card...

There's a few I'm sure you'll remember once you see them! But yea not very deep at all.

I guess they know it's feels like 100 years since the last PPV so people will take whatever we can get lol.

And I guess just having two title fights is enough for the people who were thinking about buying.

 

[Perennial]

There's a few I'm sure you'll remember once you see them! But yea not very deep at all.

I guess they know it's feels like 100 years since the last PPV so people will take whatever we can get lol.

And I guess just having two title fights is enough for the people who were thinking about buying.

I don't think the co-main really moves the needle among casual fans...

This card is really all about that main event... which is arguably the most anticipated heavyweight fight in UFC history... or at least it should be!