GDT: UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2

[CDJ]

I’m absolutely a sucker and am going Woodley +200

I like the way he’s talking this week! Zero ego yet motivated. I also think he was worried about grappling exchanges with Usman/Colby/Burns and now he doesn’t have to be a one trick pony if he doesn’t want to be

 

[Perennial]

I'm thinking Ngannou wins via KO...

 

[m9]

I’m absolutely a sucker and am going Woodley +200

I like the way he’s talking this week! Zero ego yet motivated. I also think he was worried about grappling exchanges with Usman/Colby/Burns and now he doesn’t have to be a one trick pony if he doesn’t want to be

I can't pick him straight up but I like Woodley at those odds. Could very well be a close decision.

 

[m9]

I'm thinking Ngannou wins via KO...

I've come around on this one and I'm leaning this way as well - Ngannou with an early KO.

 

[Avs_19]

I’m absolutely a sucker and am going Woodley +200

I like the way he’s talking this week! Zero ego yet motivated. I also think he was worried about grappling exchanges with Usman/Colby/Burns and now he doesn’t have to be a one trick pony if he doesn’t want to be

I like some of the prop bets for Francis a lot better than betting on Woodley. At Sports Interaction you can get Francis to win in round one at +275 or him to win by KO/TKO at +195.

 

[joshyhockey26]

I’m absolutely a sucker and am going Woodley +200

I like the way he’s talking this week! Zero ego yet motivated. I also think he was worried about grappling exchanges with Usman/Colby/Burns and now he doesn’t have to be a one trick pony if he doesn’t want to be

I haven’t been confident in Woodley in a long time. Mentally just doesn’t seem to be there. Would love to be wrong though

 

[chicagoskycam]

I like some of the prop bets for Francis a lot better than betting on Woodley. At Sports Interaction you can get Francis to win in round one at +275 or him to win by KO/TKO at +195.

shit I just looked at DK and he’s now —135 to win by KO

 

[h2]

I think Ngannou KO's Stipe early this time. Everything went right for Stipe in the first fight and a repeat strategy is literally his only path to victory, I don't think Stipe has the ability to KO Ngannou unless something freakish happens. I'm sure Ngannou has trained to avoid a repeat strategy from Stipe and I think it'll pay off.

Not sure how Woodley-Luque goes but I'm very interested in that fight.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

I think Woodley is completely done. I admittedly haven't seen much of Luque but Woodley seems to be in full survival mode these days. Hell even in his prime he was always a tentative fighter. And I say this half-jokingly but the guy got destroyed on the Titan games by an overweight high school PE teacher.

I thought the same thing last time but I see Ngannou knocking Stipe out in the first. I don't think you can really point to any one thing and say "this is why it'll be different this time", I just think you're playing with fire every time you step in the cage with Ngannou. He survived the first time, my guess is he doesn't this go around.

Definitely sucks losing the Volkanovski fight because it flipped this from a real solid card to pretty underwhelming. Really like Volkanovski at -200 or whatever he was as well.

 

[pistolpete11]

I like some of the prop bets for Francis a lot better than betting on Woodley. At Sports Interaction you can get Francis to win in round one at +275 or him to win by KO/TKO at +195.

Really? Francis to win is -135-ish and Francis to win by (T)KO is +195? That means there are lunatics out there picking Francis to win by something other than KO? Or the real gamblers who bet on prop bets are picking Stipe and it's the more casual gamblers putting money on Francis?

 

[pistolpete11]

I thought the same thing last time but I see Ngannou knocking Stipe out in the first. I don't think you can really point to any one thing and say "this is why it'll be different this time", I just think you're playing with fire every time you step in the cage with Ngannou. He survived the first time, my guess is he doesn't this go around.

The truth of the matter is that Francis could not have improved at all and still win the fight. He did catch Stipe a few times in the first fight. Who knows, maybe those shots land a little differently and puts Stipe out? Or maybe Stipe being 38 instead of 35 doesn't allow him to eat those shots?

I think Francis needs to walk that line of being aggressive enough that he's backing Stipe up and controlling the cage without being overly aggressive to the point where he's hitting nothing but air and leaving himself open for the takedown.

Although, I think it's not giving Stipe enough respect to say he survived the first time. He dominated that fight. Francis was the one hanging on for dear life.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Although, I think it's not giving Stipe enough respect to say he survived the first time. He dominated that fight. Francis was the one hanging on for dear life.

Stipe absolutely dominated that fight, no doubt. I don't mean to take anything away from him or his performance. Ngannou just has the type of power that I'd categorize as "surviving against".

Sort of brings me back to my original point of, we don't really have anything to indicate Stipe can't outbox him for periods when he's not taking him down or has him down, nor that Ngannou can keep the fight standing. I just feel like Ngannou lands something big this time and that'll be all she wrote.

 

[pistolpete11]

I think Ngannou KO's Stipe early this time. Everything went right for Stipe in the first fight and a repeat strategy is literally his only path to victory, I don't think Stipe has the ability to KO Ngannou unless something freakish happens. I'm sure Ngannou has trained to avoid a repeat strategy from Stipe and I think it'll pay off.

Not sure how Woodley-Luque goes but I'm very interested in that fight.

I just watched a clip of DC and Sterling talking about Francis' wrestling training. They were basically making the point that realizing you need to train your wrestling, training wrestling, and training wrestling hard enough to actually get significantly better at it are all different things. DC mentioned Izzy releasing footage of him training wrestling and BJJ, but then when he got in there with Jan, it didn't matter and he was still in over his head.

How much Francis has actually improved his wrestling, we don't know. I'd argue it doesn't matter. He's not going to be able to get that much better in 3 years against a guy that has been wrestling since he was in high school. As I said above, I think he needs to be more cautious so he doesn't give Stipe those openings to shoot for a takedown. If Stipe ends up getting ahold of that front leg, Francis is going down and it's going to be hard for him to get back up until the end of the round.

So what I'm saying I guess is it's more about how Francis approaches the fight than it is how much he improved his wrestling IMO.

 

[CDJ]

Stipe ate some bombs in the last one with Francis- the question is can he still eat those same bombs after the DC trilogy? At his age it’s not a given

 

[pistolpete11]

Ariel said this is Woodley's last fight on his contract. Makes it even more likely this is his last UFC fight.

 

[Avs_19]

I just watched a clip of DC and Sterling talking about Francis' wrestling training. They were basically making the point that realizing you need to train your wrestling, training wrestling, and training wrestling hard enough to actually get significantly better at it are all different things. DC mentioned Izzy releasing footage of him training wrestling and BJJ, but then when he got in there with Jan, it didn't matter and he was still in over his head.

How much Francis has actually improved his wrestling, we don't know. I'd argue it doesn't matter. He's not going to be able to get that much better in 3 years against a guy that has been wrestling since he was in high school. As I said above, I think he needs to be more cautious so he doesn't give Stipe those openings to shoot for a takedown. If Stipe ends up getting ahold of that front leg, Francis is going down and it's going to be hard for him to get back up until the end of the round.

So what I'm saying I guess is it's more about how Francis approaches the fight than it is how much he improved his wrestling IMO.

Agreed. Francis needs to be smart and can't get too wild and off balance because that's when Stipe can drag him down easily. That and cardio are probably going to be just as key as improved wrestling and more specifically, defensive wrestling. I know he has been training with Latifi for this fight so that's a pretty good training partner. He fought at LHW before but he's big, strong, and can wrestle.

 

[CDJ]

Those thigh kicks are becoming the equivalent to long 2 point jumpers in the NBA

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

1 - 1 but Azaitar is clearly more gassed

 

[CDJ]

That fight was bananas


Rogan is clearly stoned again (it’s ok joe same)


Also that ref didn’t inspire confidence

 

[bov]

Probably a 10-7 if it made it to the cards.

 

[joshyhockey26]

That fight was bananas


Rogan is clearly stoned again (it’s ok joe same)


Also that ref didn’t inspire confidence

I like that official. They don’t use him a ton and I only occasionally see him on the regional circuit so not really sure what else that guy does

 

[CDJ]

I like that official. They don’t use him a ton and I only occasionally see him on the regional circuit so not really sure what else that guy does

super weird moment in that 3rd round with the mouth guard falling out and Azaitar getting clipped on the temple- seems like he wanted to stop it but didn’t.

I don’t mind the stoppage for what it’s worth- I think he touched them in that weird moment though and that always makes things weird

 

[pistolpete11]

Agreed. Francis needs to be smart and can't get too wild and off balance because that's when Stipe can drag him down easily. That and cardio are probably going to be just as key as improved wrestling and more specifically, defensive wrestling. I know he has been training with Latifi for this fight so that's a pretty good training partner. He fought at LHW before but he's big, strong, and can wrestle.

Cardio is important too, but I think it's linked to his approach. Missing on big power shots and the wrestling is what really gassed him in the first fight. I don't think he can do that again even if his cardio is improved.

Latifi is a good wrestler, but how much can you really improve in a training camp? To the extent his wrestling matters, it's going to matter a whole lot more what he's been doing the last 3 years than this training camp IMO.

 

[CDJ]

Meh fight

solid win for Morales

 

[CDJ]

I’ve got a bet on this fight ending within 2 rounds