What can you say? The card overall sucks, but to be fair to the UFC, they did have a number of fights fall through (Volk-Ortega, Walker-Crute, Ivanov-Tybura, maybe another couple lower level fights). But there's no chance I am missing Stipe-Francis.
I've gone back and fourth on Stipe-Francis, but as of today, I'm going with Stipe by decision. Francis can make me look like a f***ing idiot, but skills win fights and Stipe has the edge on everything except for raw power. I have no doubts Francis can KO any human capable of making 265lbs, but he also caught Stipe numerous times in the first fight and Stipe ate them. So it's not as simple as Francis just needs to touch him.
I expect Francis to come out a little bit more cautious. Part of his problem in the first fight was that he was swinging wildly with full power. It was easy for Stipe to read and get out of the way or to take him down, both of which gassed Francis. Francis did catch Stipe in the 3rd with a really good shot, but that fight was essentially over after the first. Francis could barely stand up. We've heard a lot about how much he has improved, and maybe he has, but we haven't seen it in the cage and I doubt he's closed the gap enough on Stipe. So the strategy remains the same. Land that KO blow. I just think he will try to conserve his energy and be more selective in his shots.
For Stipe, the strategy is probably the same, too. Use your speed and head movement to make him miss, go for the takedown, get in and out with your shots. The only thing I could see Stipe doing differently is going for a finish. There was 1 point, I think in the 4th, where he looked up at Herb like "You gonna stop this?", but for the most part, it was about control when he got him down. If he gets him down early, I could see him looking to end it so he doesn't have to fight 5 nearly perfect rounds again. What better time than now for his first submission win?
But more realistically, Stipe by decision is probably his best bet.
