GDT: UFC 249

[Byron Bitz]

Rozenstreik vs Ngannou is my co-main event.

 

[m9]

Any chance they increase the paperview price to cash in on being the only sport?

Would be very surprised if they did that.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm just saying it's a bit odd to bring up Pettis making 145lbs once 4 years ago (he missed weight the other time) like it's a big deal without mentioning that Pettis has fought at 170lbs twice much more recently.

I guess my point is I don't think the weight matters. I just think that if Cerrone wins it is less about the weight and more about how much Pettis has fallen off since their first fight.

I think making weight at a lower division is more telling than taking a few random fights at a higher division. Anybody can take a fight at a higher weight. Not everyone can cut an extra 10 pounds. Cowboy certainly can't.

I also think it's more telling that Cowboy committed 3 years to 170, not just taking a few random fights (one of which was against a 155'er).

So yes, I think it's a valid point that 170 is a more natural weight for Cowboy than it is Pettis and that it could have an effect in the fight.

 

[pistolpete11]

Any chance they increase the paperview price to cash in on being the only sport?

You can already buy it. Looks the same as usual.

 

[Sheppy]

I'm not buying any PPV until the undercard is happening.

 

[chicagoskycam]

I'm not buying any PPV until the undercard is happening.

Yeah, well they would just refund it if it didn't go off but you might want to make sure there are no cancellations on the main event.

 

[member 51464]

I suppose I'm rooting for Gaethje.

If Ferguson and Khabib is forever cursed, then Gaethje winning at least lets the division move along, haha

 

[pistolpete11]

I wasn't suggesting to buy it now. I was just pointing out there's no need to speculate on how much it is going to cost. You can go look and see how much they are charging.

I suppose I'm rooting for Gaethje.

If Ferguson and Khabib is forever cursed, then Gaethje winning at least lets the division move along, haha

haha good point, but I still want Khabib-Tony to happen next, so I'll be rooting for Tony. Even if they end up fighting down the line, it will lose something if one of them loses before that happens.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Man, Tony getting the Covid-19 test, I think she hit brain. That thing was up there!

 

[CDJ]

Can’t wait for Luque vs Price, that has show stealing potential


I still maintain Luque vs Barberena was the most wild fight I saw that year

 

[pistolpete11]

Can’t wait for Luque vs Price, that has show stealing potential


I still maintain Luque vs Barberena was the most wild fight I saw that year

I didn't realize they had already fought. Luque submitted him in the second round on the prelims of Brunson-Machida Fight Night in Brazil or, as it's probably better remembered, the night where Covington beat Maia and went full douche in the post fight interview.

I haven't seen it listed as Luque-Price 2 anyway, though. Maybe the UFC forgot, too

Also, the UFC website has it listed as on the early prelims which is on Fight Pass. Is that right? I want to see this fight. I don't want to see it bad enough to buy Fight Pass.

 

[Sheppy]

I literally hope Gaethje sends Ferguson's head to jupiter.

 

[CDJ]

I didn't realize they had already fought. Luque submitted him in the second round on the prelims of Brunson-Machida Fight Night in Brazil or, as it's probably better remembered, the night where Covington beat Maia and went full douche in the post fight interview.

I haven't seen it listed as Luque-Price 2 anyway, though. Maybe the UFC forgot, too

Also, the UFC website has it listed as on the early prelims which is on Fight Pass. Is that right? I want to see this fight. I don't want to see it bad enough to buy Fight Pass.

they usually have the early prelims on ESPN+ so if you have that you don’t need to purchase fight pass. Honestly for fight fans the 5 bucks a month is worth it, you can watch every fight and even some older fights (and other sports)

 

[chicagoskycam]

Gaethje has requested Tony please break his nose before Justin takes him out. He needs it fixed, lol.

Justin Gaethje Hopes Tony Ferguson Breaks His Nose at UFC 249 to Get It Fixed

Tony's response,

"He just doesn't want me to hit him in the body," he said via ESPN.

 

[chicagoskycam]

they usually have the early prelims on ESPN+ so if you have that you don’t need to purchase fight pass. Honestly for fight fans the 5 bucks a month is worth it, you can watch every fight and even some older fights (and other sports)

It says early prelims on Fight Pass,
Prelims on ESPN and ESPN +
Main card ESPN+ PPV

I wish they would combine all of this stuff.

 

[CDJ]

It says early prelims on Fight Pass,
Prelims on ESPN and ESPN +
Main card ESPN+ PPV

I wish they would combine all of this stuff.

Could be wrong but I’m pretty sure it usually always says that and they air it on espn+ anyway

 

[chicagoskycam]

Could be wrong but I’m pretty sure it usually always says that and they air it on espn+ anyway

They probably will but last time I didn't see early prelims on ESPN

 

[pistolpete11]

they usually have the early prelims on ESPN+ so if you have that you don’t need to purchase fight pass. Honestly for fight fans the 5 bucks a month is worth it, you can watch every fight and even some older fights (and other sports)

Good to know. I don't know that I have ever watched early prelims before. Normally, I don't have 6hrs to commit to watching fights on weekends, but now.....

ESPN+ isn't a bad deal. I just wish they'd offer a UFC package where you don't have to pay for the PPV's. Make it $300/year or something.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Good to know. I don't know that I have ever watched early prelims before. Normally, I don't have 6hrs to commit to watching fights on weekends, but now.....

ESPN+ isn't a bad deal. I just wish they'd offer a UFC package where you don't have to pay for the PPV's. Make it $300/year or something.

Agreed, I wish they offered some annual deal but $300 per year would be less than 50% of what they get if you had one PPV per month. ESPN+ has a ton of good content and old fights, 30 for 30's. There are some deals with ESPN +, Disney+ and Hulu.

Fight Pass is good for the entire library but it's laid out like garbage.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Tony -175. Cejudo -215. Jacare -125.

I'm pretty surprised by all three of these. I would've thought they'd be substantially bigger favorites. Tough to bet against Tony these days other than a Khabib fight, outside of a perfect knee against Mousasi (which Mousasi avenged) Hall has never been able to beat guys at Jacare's level, and with Cruz you're just looking at years of layoff/injury. Cruz last fought 3.5 years ago when he got throttled by Garbrandt, and we've seen how Garbrandt has fared since. Cejudo has been an absolute beast of late. He'll make Cruz look old and slow.

 

[Jasper]

Tony -175. Cejudo -215. Jacare -125.

I'm pretty surprised by all three of these. I would've thought they'd be substantially bigger favorites. Tough to bet against Tony these days other than a Khabib fight, outside of a perfect knee against Mousasi (which Mousasi avenged) Hall has never been able to beat guys at Jacare's level, and with Cruz you're just looking at years of layoff/injury. Cruz last fought 3.5 years ago when he got throttled by Garbrandt, and we've seen how Garbrandt has fared since. Cejudo has been an absolute beast of late. He'll make Cruz look old and slow.

Jacare at -125 vs Hall seems especially crazy to me.

 

[Avs_19]

I've been trying to keep my excitement for this event in check because I almost expected it to get postponed but I can't wait until Saturday. It sounds like they're taking all of the necessary steps to put the event on as safely as possible so hopefully none of these tests come back positive and things really do get back to normal for the UFC.

Main event should be great and it's hard to see it not delivering. I'm glad Gaethje got the extra few weeks to be more prepared. I'll still go with Ferguson because I think he's the more well-rounded fighter and will use all of his tools unlike Gaethje but we've also seen him take plenty of damage so it should be competitive. An all out brawl would obviously be entertaining but Gaethje has been fighting smarter and if he can control himself early and use his leg kicks to slow down Ferguson then I'll like his chances a lot more.

I have no idea what to think of Cruz heading into this fight. I don't even know if he's completely healthy or if he just jumped at the opportunity because it was there for him. He has shown he isn't affected by ring rust but that was also when he was younger and a few surgeries ago. If he's anything like his old self then the fight should be interesting because in addition to being very skilled, he's also quite a bit bigger than Cejudo. There's no way I'm picking Cruz after nearly four years off though.

Ngannou vs. Rozenstruik might be the most normal fight out of these match ups. They've been preparing for each other for some time and the only thing that changed was the date. It's also a fight where we likely don't have to worry about conditioning and how they were able to train with gyms closed. They're just going in to throw bombs and I'm all for it. Whoever wins should get the next shot at the belt if Stipe/DC ever happens.

Plenty of other great match ups as well all throughout. You know it's good when Luque vs. Price is one of the first fights on the card.

 

[m9]

Tony -175. Cejudo -215. Jacare -125.

I'm pretty surprised by all three of these. I would've thought they'd be substantially bigger favorites. Tough to bet against Tony these days other than a Khabib fight, outside of a perfect knee against Mousasi (which Mousasi avenged) Hall has never been able to beat guys at Jacare's level, and with Cruz you're just looking at years of layoff/injury. Cruz last fought 3.5 years ago when he got throttled by Garbrandt, and we've seen how Garbrandt has fared since. Cejudo has been an absolute beast of late. He'll make Cruz look old and slow.

Jacare at -125 vs Hall seems especially crazy to me.

Jacare that low seems crazy. Hammering that and for him to finish by sub. I like Ferguson by TKO as well.

 

[pistolpete11]

Agreed, I wish they offered some annual deal but $300 per year would be less than 50% of what they get if you had one PPV per month. ESPN+ has a ton of good content and old fights, 30 for 30's. There are some deals with ESPN +, Disney+ and Hulu.

Fight Pass is good for the entire library but it's laid out like garbage.

Yeah, I mean I'm sure they have their reasons for continuing to do it this way. I'm no economist or digital media whiz, but I think they could attract more people that only buy a couple PPVs a year, illegally stream them, or aren't fans yet. The cost to be a UFC fan is a tough hurdle for some people. $300/year (or whatever the price point would be) instead of $60 for one night would be easier to swallow IMO.

Comparing to other sports, NHL.tv is ~$150 for the season. It's only 6 months or so out of the year and the UFC is year round, so naturally it would be more expensive. I just think there has to be some price point that they could make up the money from the die hards buying every PPV with more casual fans. More eyeballs = more ad revenue as well.

 

[pistolpete11]

Tony -175. Cejudo -215. Jacare -125.

I'm pretty surprised by all three of these. I would've thought they'd be substantially bigger favorites. Tough to bet against Tony these days other than a Khabib fight, outside of a perfect knee against Mousasi (which Mousasi avenged) Hall has never been able to beat guys at Jacare's level, and with Cruz you're just looking at years of layoff/injury. Cruz last fought 3.5 years ago when he got throttled by Garbrandt, and we've seen how Garbrandt has fared since. Cejudo has been an absolute beast of late. He'll make Cruz look old and slow.

Hall also beat Santos, but I agree with your point. Jacare is 40 years old now and his record of late isn't great which I guess is why the odds are what they are, but he's been competitive against cream of the crop competition during that span as well. Hall just isn't on that level. He has the ability to beat him, but I think Jacare is a pretty safe bet and with those odds...yeah.

I personally wouldn't touch Cejudo-Cruz. No way I could bet on Cruz with all the question marks, but it's not great odds for a Cejudo bet either IMO. Nothing but props to Cejudo for beating Moreas, but he was getting his ass kicked until Moraes ran out of gas. Dom's not as fast as Moraes, but he's smart and I don't remember cardio ever being an issue for him.

I think Tony is a good bet, too. There is certainly a path for Gaethje. He hits hard and Tony gets hit, but I just can't keep from thinking Alvarez and Poirier took it. Why wouldn't Tony be able to?