If the playing philosophy going forward under JR & BB is one that suits Myers's style, would you think he'd be worth his contract or is he better but still not worth the contract? I lean towards the latter and would like to move him while his value is climbing to clear cap first and foremost and hopefully bet some assets back (I'm thinking a 3rd at least, maybe if we retain some for just this year we could get a 2nd, but I wouldn't want to retain into next year).
That is an interesting question. As per Evolving-Hockey (
Evolving-Hockey [paywall]), Myers currently sits at 44th overall among defensemen at 4.4 goals above replacement (GAR). His even strength impact has been top 10 in the league (6.3 is good for 9th among defenseman), but that has been brought down largely by a bottom 10 (-1.5) shorthanded impact. I knew he was having a good season, but this year has been truly remarkable, especially given how bad the Canucks were on the PK before Boudreau. Considering that the Canucks have been a mediocre team this year overall his (and Hughes') impacts are all the more impressive.
Myers is currently at a 6m cap hit for this year plus 2 more years. Harman Dayal at The Athletic did a pretty good job breaking down his contract last year through the lens of Dom L's GSVA model:
From J.T. Miller to Tyler Myers: Ranking Canucks contracts from best to worst [paywall].
Basically the Myers contract looked horrendous. He wasn't worth the money at the time of the signing and would be likely to decline with age. He should have been paid somewhere in the 1-2M/year range over that term for it to have looked worthwhile according to the model. We know the reality is that he had more value than that as a free-agent, so he would likely just have been on the not-worth-it list for many teams.
That being said, as this chart shows, he still had some value to bring as a purely offensive player, since his shot creation and goal scoring production was pretty good. I have already spoken about his offensive transition impact and I genuinely do think that given his skill-set he has the potential to be more like the player that he was in his first two years while he was wearing the Buffaslug.
Usage is the most important factor in maximizing a player like this with such clear strengths and weaknesses; but honestly a lot of credit should also be given to OEL, who at this stage in his career does quite strongly resemble a 2009-10ish Henrik Tallinder (Myers most common partner in his rookie season) in being a smart in-zone defender who makes up for a lack of footspeed through positioning and hockey smarts. The two are a good pairing because their flaws and strengths are opposite to one-another. Myers is at his best when he is able to cover a lot of ice without having to do too much static defending and both OEL and the Canucks' system under BB are allowing him to do that.
This year has been a true revelation, especially on the defensive end of the ice, where he has played very well despite seeing some of the tougher match-ups in terms of QOC in the league. His current form as a top pairing level defenseman at ~1.5WAR is worth 6-7M so far, so if he can manage to keep up his impressive play and improve somewhat on his abysmal PK record, he could be performing at a ~$10M level and dramatically exceed his contract-price this year.
That said, there are still some worrying areas. He is dramatically overperforming his expected GAR because he is overperforming in on-ice even-strength offense despite he himself not putting up many points. Both the eye test and the numbers test are positive, but there are still niggling doubts in the underlying numbers and there is still a lot more reason to trust 10 years of previously poor play than the two excellent years that began his career.
Even though Myers has legitimately played like an elite top-pairing defenseman this year, if the Canucks fall off their current pace and are out of playoff contention early, attempting to trade him while his trade value is actually high would likely be an extremely shrewd move by whomever the new GM will be. He would basically have to play this well again for the entirety of one of the next two years for his contract to be "worth it" over the remainder of its duration. That said, a player that skates as well as Myers does has at least a small shot and maintaining his performance levels into his mid 30s, where most defensemen fall-off significantly, so we shall see!
Edit: Another point that's worth making re trade value is that Myers' contract looks a lot more appealing once the 2021 5M signing bonus (already paid this year?) has been paid. A team could foreseeably acquire him at the deadline and owe him only just over 11M in salary for the remaining 2.5 years despite his 6M cap hit. With salary retained, he could have significant positive value (1st rounder?) to a team looking to strengthen their defense (Nashville?) for a playoff push at the deadline.