Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[MS]

A few days after the trade, Kevin Gausman was waived by Atlanta. Gausman has struggled less than Sanchez this year and has a significantly better track record the last few years... and his value was basically nothing.

Since he was permanently removed from the rotation, Biagini has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.92 FIP in 116 IP. He's improved this year to the point where he's on pace for about 0.3 fWAR.

I liked them both and really hoped they would figure it out, but it seems like your evaluation of them is based on a combination of what they used to be and what you want them to be. In reality, both of these guys were really good in 2016 and both of them have been awful for three years now.

(For the record, I also hated that Stevenson was thrown in. Given the trade as a whole, I would have been perfectly happy with it if a Stevenson-calibre prospect was coming back to the Jays instead, so that part bugged me more than anything. I think it was a bad trade, but you have to be unreasonably high on the Jays guys and unreasonably low on Fisher to analyze it the way you have.)

Throwing a decent prospect in is the biggest thing for me. We agree there.

Biagini is at 0.8 bWAR this year. He's a useful pitcher.

Sanchez and Gausman aren't the same thing. Sanchez is 27 and less than 3 years removed from an ERA title. And has then battled injuries since. What he showed in 2015-16 still gave him a bit of value in spite of his horrible season this year. I'm not disappointed at all he was traded, and even if the trade was Sanchez-Fisher, fair enough. The problem is the piling-on of assets to get a guy who quite obviously isn't very good.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

It's lousy asset management.

Especially the inclusion of Stevenson, who was a decent top-20 ish prospect for the team.

Also Biagini surely would have been back as a cheap reliever with team control.

Stevenson seems more of a top 40 than a top 20 prospect.

 

[Discoverer]

Throwing a decent prospect in is the biggest thing for me. We agree there.

Biagini is at 0.8 bWAR this year. He's a useful pitcher.

Sanchez and Gausman aren't the same thing. Sanchez is 27 and less than 3 years removed from an ERA title. And has then battled injuries since. What he showed in 2015-16 still gave him a bit of value in spite of his horrible season this year. I'm not disappointed at all he was traded, and even if the trade was Sanchez-Fisher, fair enough. The problem is the piling-on of assets to get a guy who quite obviously isn't very good.

Gausman is only a year older and has been worth 5 fWAR in the two seasons that Sanchez has been replacement level/injured (while only being slightly worse in 2016). The situations are similar, but if there's a difference in value, it's minimal (and it probably favours Gausman).

 

[MS]

Gausman is only a year older and has been worth 5 fWAR in the two seasons that Sanchez has been replacement level/injured (while only being slightly worse in 2016). The situations are similar, but if there's a difference in value, it's minimal (and it probably favours Gausman).

Gausman is a back-end starter who was basically always a back-end starter and who nobody thinks will ever be anything other than a back-end starter. Sanchez is (or was) an electric arm who won an ERA title at age 23 and looked like a future star before having a bunch of blister problems. The upside there is completely different and makes them totally different assets to discuss.

Regardless : I would consider Biagini and Stevenson a borderline overpayment for Fisher, so it's basically like the team just gave Sanchez away.

Part of this is my frustration with the endless parade of pro-scouting acquisitions with no plate discipline or bat-to-ball skills and no defensive ability to compensate. Seeing a Fisher after the team took back a McKinney as the main piece in the bad Happ trade and after there was already a Teoscar isn't amazing.

 

[Discoverer]

Gausman is a back-end starter who was basically always a back-end starter and who nobody thinks will ever be anything other than a back-end starter. Sanchez is (or was) an electric arm who won an ERA title at age 23 and looked like a future star before having a bunch of blister problems. The upside there is completely different and makes them totally different assets to discuss.

Regardless : I would consider Biagini and Stevenson a borderline overpayment for Fisher, so it's basically like the team just gave Sanchez away.

Part of this is my frustration with the endless parade of pro-scouting acquisitions with no plate discipline or bat-to-ball skills and no defensive ability to compensate. Seeing a Fisher after the team took back a McKinney as the main piece in the bad Happ trade and after there was already a Teoscar isn't amazing.

In Sanchez's ERA title season he was worth 3.5 fWAR and 5 bWAR. Gausman was worth 3.1 fWAR and 4 bWAR. Sanchez was a bit better that year and has been MUCH worse ever since. If you think that's the difference between "a ton of potential" and "always been a back-end starter", then I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[phillipmike]

There will be no opener before Kay today. Kay will get the ball to start the game.

We made some change boys?!?!?

 

[canucksfan]

Stevenson seems more of a top 40 than a top 20 prospect.

He doesn't make the Astros top 30 on Pipeline. On Fangraphs he is 36.

I can't remember where he was rated in the Jays system. I didn't like the trade at the time, I think Sanchez and Biagini would have been more than enough for Fisher but it seems like garbage for garbage as someone already said.

EDIT One thing about Cal is his power numbers are terrible. If he does develop some good power he could turn into a fairly good prospect which is why Joe and Aaron for Derek without Cal would have been fine.

 

[Woodman19]

3 spare parts for one spare part with control and frees up a 40 man spot. Not much to see here

 

[canucksfan]

Throwing a decent prospect in is the biggest thing for me. We agree there.

Biagini is at 0.8 bWAR this year. He's a useful pitcher.

Sanchez and Gausman aren't the same thing. Sanchez is 27 and less than 3 years removed from an ERA title. And has then battled injuries since. What he showed in 2015-16 still gave him a bit of value in spite of his horrible season this year. I'm not disappointed at all he was traded, and even if the trade was Sanchez-Fisher, fair enough. The problem is the piling-on of assets to get a guy who quite obviously isn't very good.

You are overrating Sanchez's value. He has been injury prone since his 2016 season. He has had one good season as a starter. His velocity has dropped, has little control, doesn't strike out batters a lot and his GB% is a lot lower now compared to when he first into the league.

 

[Gargyn]

Started a new job so been so busy this week but noticed Alford played last night I’m the box score. How did he look?

 

[The Nemesis]

You are overrating Sanchez's value. He has been injury prone since his 2016 season. He has had one good season as a starter. His velocity has dropped, has little control, doesn't strike out batters a lot and his GB% is a lot lower now compared to when he first into the league.

His profile has also always been extremely high variance. Low K% for a guy with his stuff, high BB%, heavy ground-ball focus. That's the kind of performance that leads to incredibly swingy year-to-year performance like we've seen so far, or even in-season swings. It's why he can look bulletproof like he did in his first Astros outing, then go out and pitch like crap afterward.

I was always on the Sanchez hype train, but these were the problems he had coming up in the system (his strikeout totals were already suspect in the minors. He didn't top 25% for a K rate after 2012 with Lansing.), and all the faith that he would eventually fix them never came to pass.

 

[phillipmike]

Marcus Stroman fWAR with the Mets: 0.3

Anthony Kay fWAR with the Jays: 0.3

 

[canucksfan]

On social media Stroman is taking a lot of criticism because of his poor performance with the Mets so far.

Even if he was doing well, it didn’t make sense at the time and still doesn’t make sense for the Mets to trade for Stroman.

 

[The Nemesis]

On social media Stroman is taking a lot of criticism because of his poor performance with the Mets so far.

Even if he was doing well, it didn’t make sense at the time and still doesn’t make sense for the Mets to trade for Stroman.

It must be tough when all those mets fans don't believe in him.

 

[canucksfan]

It must be tough when all those mets fans don't believe in him.

It will be interesting to see how responds if he continues to do poorly. The New York Media isn't easy to deal with.

Initially I didn't like the trade but as more information came out it seemed fairly good. Glad they traded him when they did. It's too bad they didn't trade Pillar and JD much sooner. Would have got significantly better pieces back.

 

[Cor]

We hear so much about the Jays development staff being high quality.

Apparently the secret is to just let players play baseball

 

[phillipmike]

On social media Stroman is taking a lot of criticism because of his poor performance with the Mets so far.

Even if he was doing well, it didn’t make sense at the time and still doesn’t make sense for the Mets to trade for Stroman.

They are tearing him and Brody a new one. Brody really hurt this team long term. Kelenic, Dunn, Kay and SWR would add to their core vs Cano, Diaz, Lowrie, Ramos, Famalia, Stroman etc.

Mets could have been much more dangerous without the Stroman and Cano/Diaz trade. Would have had better young talent than the Braves for me.

 

[dredeye]

It must be tough when all those mets fans don't believe in him.

They mustn’t realize that height doesn’t measure heart. He’ll help them figure it out

 

[Suntouchable13]

A few days after the trade, Kevin Gausman was waived by Atlanta. Gausman has struggled less than Sanchez this year and has a significantly better track record the last few years... and his value was basically nothing.

Since he was permanently removed from the rotation, Biagini has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.92 FIP in 116 IP. He's improved this year to the point where he's on pace for about 0.3 fWAR.

I liked them both and really hoped they would figure it out, but it seems like your evaluation of them is based on a combination of what they used to be and what you want them to be. In reality, both of these guys were really good in 2016 and both of them have been awful for three years now.

(For the record, I also hated that Stevenson was thrown in. Given the trade as a whole, I would have been perfectly happy with it if a Stevenson-calibre prospect was coming back to the Jays instead, so that part bugged me more than anything. I think it was a bad trade, but you have to be unreasonably high on the Jays guys and unreasonably low on Fisher to analyze it the way you have.)

Fisher is total trash. But then again, so were Bautista and Encranacion at one point.

 

[dredeye]

Fisher is total trash. But then again, so were Bautista and Encranacion at one point.

And Sanchez is in the midst of a season where he broke the record for most consecutive losses in a row. Can’t believe we couldn’t get more.

 

[Suntouchable13]

And Sanchez is in the midst of a season where he broke the record for most consecutive losses in a row. Can’t believe we couldn’t get more.

That's fine. I am just saying that saying Fisher is a bum, is not being "unreasonably low" on him. He is not a good player at this point.

 

[Cor]

That's fine. I am just saying that saying Fisher is a bum, is not being "unreasonably low" on him. He is not a good player at this point.

You mean a .169 avg, and 5 homers in 28 games for a guy whose biggest asset is supposed to be his bat, isn't a good player

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Suntouchable13]

When we look at this rebuild puzzle, which pieces will still be here when this team potentially makes the playoffs? Which guys will be used as trade chips to bring in upgrades to the roster?

 

[phillipmike]

If the 2020 MLB Draft was today;
1. Detroit
2. Baltimore
3. Miami
4. Royals
5. Jays


Jays are 2 games ahead of the Royals and 4 games ahead of the Marlins. Miami is leading the Royals 7-0, Jays might be on the verge of losing to the Rays.

After tonight the Jays might be only 2 games ahead of the Royals and 3 ahead of Miami.

3rd or 4th overall in the 2020 draft is a possibility for the Jays.