Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[phillipmike]

Baseball Reference still needs to update their contract section because their math doesnt add and/or is inconsistent.

Toronto Blue Jays Salaries and Contracts | Baseball-Reference.com

They say the 2020 Toronto Blue Jays have the following expenditures:

Guaranteed Money: 29.93M (Grichuk (13M), Gurriel (2.93M) and Tulowitzki (14M)
Pre-arb Estimates: 11.24M
Arb Estimates: 40.4M
Estimated Total: 81.6M

Guaranteed Money and Pre-arb Estimates add up. Arb estimates make no sense when they came out with this a few days ago;

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2020

Blue Jays (8)
Matt Shoemaker – $3.8MM
Ken Giles – $8.4MM
Devon Travis – $1.95MM
Ryan Tepera – $1.6MM
Brandon Drury – $2.5MM
Luke Maile – $800K
Derek Law – $1.3MM
Ryan Dull – $800K
Total Arb Estimates: 21.15M

This makes more sense at 21.15M vs 40.4M. I suspect the Jays will non-tender Travis and Dull. Shoemaker might be non tendered and brought back. Maile might be easy to let go but at 800k and one option remaining, he should stay. Giles likely will be traded. So if you only count Shoemaker, Tepera, Drury, Maile and Law the Jays will have;

Guaranteed Money: 29.93M (Grichuk (13M), Gurriel (2.93M) and Tulowitzki (14M)
Pre-arb Estimates: 11.24M
Arb Estimates: 10M
Estimated Total: 51.2M

Shapiro and Atkins said the Jays could have a 125M to 150M payroll to work this is IF they wanted it. That leaves them with 75M to 100M to work with this off-season. I doubt they blow it all this off-season so depending on who they sign they could have 50-60M to work with this offseason to get 1 bat, 2-3 starting arms and some pen arms.

-----------------

Sure a player like Cole would be fantastic but unless we drastically overpay, it isnt happening. So i would like to see us go the route of Twins, aim for mid tier free agents to raise your win total floor. If you have a team in contention then great but if not then you have some great trading assets like the Rangers should have had in Lynn and Minor. And if you only bring them on 1-2 year deals then you have flexibility if they flame out.

Similar to the Twins i like Edwin on a 1 year deal to be our DH/1B with Tellez. I believe Thornton, Shoemaker, Borucki, Kay, Zeuch, Pearson and any other AA guy who moves up should rotate in and out of 3 rotation spots. Best 3 players get the rotation spot which hopefully turns out to be a variation of Pearson, Thornton/Kay and Borucki. Then the Jays go after 2 starting pitchers in FA or trade.

Chris Archer could be a buy low candidate with control. Kluber might be someone Cleveland might trade. many mid tier FA guys in Odorrzzi, Keuchel, Miley, Nova, Pineda, Porcello, and Roark. Can go the next tier up in Wheeler, Ryu, MadBum etc but i admit it isnt likely. Should be an interesting, impactful and pretty exciting off-season for the Jays.

 

[Kurtz]

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s New Contract is Staggering
Ozzie Albies’s New Deal Could Be the Worst an MLB Player Has Ever Signed
Here’s Why the Ozzie Albies Deal Was Terrible

Firstly, these are two players who already had established themselves at the MLB level. Acuna's 3.7 WAR season as a 20 year old is one of the highest of all-time for that age, and Albies put up 5.7 WAR over 900 PA as a 20/21 year old.

By WAR dollars, Acuna was worth $45M this year. His deal is $100M/8 with two additional team options @ $17M per, so of the guaranteed portion he is already almost halfway there after one season. He will be 31 at the end of the option years so there is no albatross backend of the contract.

Albies was worth $37M this year. His deal is $35M/7 with two additional team options @ $7M per. He could just not show up for the next six years and the Braves would have surplus value on his contract.

They are terrible, horrible, no good, very bad contracts.

e: Just to add onto this, the truly bad part of these extensions is how many FA years they give away. The nature of the game is that good players will easily outperform their pre-arb/arb years, but I believe the Acuna contract gives up 4 FA years and Albies 3, for way, way, waaaaaay below market value.

I'm dreaming of an alternate universe where AA is still our GM and we have Vlad and Bo signed to those deals.

 

[Epictetus]

I think I am in the sign Giles long-term camp.

 

[Superstar]

Which relievers didn't pitch yesterday who are better than Clayton Kershaw?

Kershaw is not a reliever. He shouldn't be used like one.

 

[Discoverer]

Kershaw is not a reliever. He shouldn't be used like one.

Did you feel the same about Corbin when he came in and dominated in the same game? Or Chris Sale last year? Or Bumgarner a few years ago?

 

[GoonieFace]

Did you feel the same about Corbin when he came in and dominated in the same game? Or Chris Sale last year? Or Bumgarner a few years ago?

Corbin also got torched this year when he came in as a reliever against the Dodgers. I just find it strange that you have bullpen guys doing a job all year and than all of a sudden in the playoffs they get passed over.

 

[Mach85]

Corbin also got torched this year when he came in as a reliever against the Dodgers. I just find it strange that you have bullpen guys doing a job all year and than all of a sudden in the playoffs they get passed over.

It's less that they're doing a specific job because they have the skillset for it and more that the better pitchers remain as starters because they're more valuable in that role. Once the season has come down to the line and guys don't have to be saved for longer outings, or relief pitching in an elimination game has become more valuable than starting pitching in a conditional future game, using your best arms becomes the strategic play. There's a heaping dose of recency bias here with Kershaw. Despite his regression from his past self, he's still their best pitcher outside of probably Buehler, who started the game in question. If Kershaw had shut the door then we wouldn't be having this conversation about why Roberts didn't go to a reliever.

 

[Discoverer]

Corbin also got torched this year when he came in as a reliever against the Dodgers. I just find it strange that you have bullpen guys doing a job all year and than all of a sudden in the playoffs they get passed over.

Sure... and Strasburg and Scherzer have combined for 4 shutout innings with 2 hits, no walks, and 7 Ks.

In the Nationals' case, though, it's pretty simple... the bullpen sucks. Like... it really sucks. The pen had a 5.68 ERA (second worst in the league, just slightly better than the Orioles and 1.28 runs worse than the next worst playoff team). They also had the 5th worst FIP at 4.94 and the 2nd worst xFIP at 5.03. (And yeah, they made some minor upgrades at the deadline and proceeded to finish 6th, 3rd, and 5th from the bottom for those categories in the last two months.) These guys didn't do the job all year... the team got to the playoffs in spite of them because their starting pitching and offense are so good.

They're still giving innings to the couple guys who aren't completely terrible, they're just replacing the really bad pitchers with more innings from the best pitchers on the team.

 

[Superstar]

Did you feel the same about Corbin when he came in and dominated in the same game? Or Chris Sale last year? Or Bumgarner a few years ago?

Kershaw is notoriously bad in the postseason. Roberts should have counted his blessings and kept him on the bench after the 7th inning. Do the Dodgers not have any competent relievers who could pitch an inning to set up Jansen for the 9th to close out the game? Roberts got too cute by trying to make one person into a hero.

 

[Discoverer]

Kershaw is notoriously bad in the postseason. Roberts should have counted his blessings and kept him on the bench after the 7th inning. Do the Dodgers not have any competent relievers who could pitch an inning to set up Jansen for the 9th to close out the game? Roberts got too cute by trying to make one person into a hero.

He doesn't have any relievers more competent than Kershaw. I mean... I guess Joe Kelly had a 3.19 xFIP this year, so you could argue he would have been a better fit. But they tried that a couple innings later and it didn't go particularly well, either.

If I were to complain about Roberts's management, it would be about leaving Kelly in as long as he did while Jansen was available.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Discoverer]

Ugh. Yes, the Jays could easily sign Gerrit Cole. They could sign Cole and another solid starter this year and still have money to sign Betts next and still have a bit of payroll flexibility over the next few years. But they won't. And dreaming about ways they can make it happen is only going to make it more frustrating when they target a couple good-not-great options instead.

I'm still kind of dreaming about adding Wheeler, and even that feels like I'm getting my hopes up a bit too much.

 

[phillipmike]

Would love to see Gibby back in the game, would be better if it was us but that ship has sailed.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[canucksfan]

I have never seen the full game. Does it exist? There's game 5 on Youtube but not game 4.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

I'm dreaming of an alternate universe where AA is still our GM and we have Vlad and Bo signed to those deals.

On other teams as They would have been traded to extended the window of 15/16

 

[Cor]

It seems like Shapiro will either be extended or leaving this winter.
https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1183033268381372416?s=21

 

[kb]

It seems like Shapiro will either be extended or leaving this winter.

This sounds like a Dreger tweet.

 

[Apotheosis]

I think it's definitely very possible that the Jays sign Gerrit Cole. Just have to have another good year next year and show he isn't coming in to a barren rotation. The hitting potential is there.

 

[rojac]

This sounds like a Dreger tweet.

By that, do you mean a tweet that sums up what he knows about a situation (even if it really doesn’t add much news) likely made in an attempt to shut up fans who keep asking him “so what’s going on with ...?”

 

[Eyedea]

I think it's definitely very possible that the Jays sign Gerrit Cole. Just have to have another good year next year and show he isn't coming in to a barren rotation. The hitting potential is there.

He’s a free agent this offseason btw

 

[Apotheosis]

He’s a free agent this offseason btw

This offseason? Damn. Nevermind. The pitch would have to be insane to get him.

 

[Discoverer]

This offseason? Damn. Nevermind. The pitch would have to be insane to get him.

The pitch probably means a lot less than the money, and I have a hard time seeing them commit the kind of money that would be needed to get it done.

Part of me, though, still wonders if maybe a guy like Cole is the exact reason the Toronto job had so much draw for a guy like Shapiro. He's spent his whole career running a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball where the only option was to draft well, trade away veterans for youth/control, and only extend players if it's a pre-breakout bargain deal. Building a team the same way but also having a top 10 payroll would have to be a nice perk.

 

[Apotheosis]

The pitch probably means a lot less than the money, and I have a hard time seeing them commit the kind of money that would be needed to get it done.

Part of me, though, still wonders if maybe a guy like Cole is the exact reason the Toronto job had so much draw for a guy like Shapiro. He's spent his whole career running a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball where the only option was to draft well, trade away veterans for youth/control, and only extend players if it's a pre-breakout bargain deal. Building a team the same way but also having a top 10 payroll would have to be a nice perk.

I mean the pitch would be simple. "Hey we have arguably the best upcoming offence in baseball. We need a stable rotation and we think you're a top 5 pitcher in the league. Here's the money and term we are willing to commit." There's not much else one can say. I feel like it's also contingent on a guy like Pearson coming in and making an impact. Cole is young enough that a 1-2 punch of him and Pearson would be HUGE going forward once Vlad and Bo take the league by storm.

 

[trellaine201]

JA Happ meatball.