Speculation: Trouba [MOD: his next contract]

[SoupaTroupa]

The golf tournament was June 27th. Is that really related to a concert on July 8th in any way?

More interesting would be whether or not Trouba attended Mark Stuart's wedding on July 2?

Yes he did. There are pictures on instagram of him and his girlfriend at the wedding. Bogo and his wife were also there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's how negotiation works. You start high. If his agent didn't do that he should be fired. I hardly means he is going to get it.

These rumours of him demanding $7 million are out of control.


Edited to add: Just noticed the OP is from a few months ago. But Still! This drives me nuts.

I don't think he should get quite as much as Schiefele. I agree with something around 5.5x6,

Why are you so willing to give him more than Rielly? That is 10% more! I don't see any valid argument for giving a nickel more than Rielly. It is easy to make the argument that it should be less.

Rielly is easily the best comparable IMO. Using his contract Trouba should get 4.8-5x6. I could see going slightly higher if necessary so between 30-31 mil over 6 years, tops. That last mil is overpay because Trouba's agent does a better job of squeezing every last penny out of a team.

 

[Crocket]

Why are you so willing to give him more than Rielly? That is 10% more! I don't see any valid argument for giving a nickel more than Rielly. It is easy to make the argument that it should be less.

Rielly is easily the best comparable IMO. Using his contract Trouba should get 4.8-5x6. I could see going slightly higher if necessary so between 30-31 mil over 6 years, tops. That last mil is overpay because Trouba's agent does a better job of squeezing every last penny out of a team.

He is a good comparable for sure. You could justify Trouba at a little more maybe. Trouba is a little more dynamic, Reilly is not super physical, both great young dmen. But I think with Jones, Reilly etc all signing in a specific range should make it relatively easy to sign Trouba, in theory.

 

[Crocket]

I'm not sure Bogo wanted out of Wpg necessarily but obviously they are great friends. Off ice issues are always a consideration with young players and I'm not sure if Trouba is someone there is any concern about. Doesn't seem to get in trouble. Everything I've hears has been simply rumors.

 

[ps241]

Yes he did. There are pictures on instagram of him and his girlfriend at the wedding. Bogo and his wife were also there.

Ok so he was at the wedding was he smiling or did he look like he was unhappy to be there???

 

[allan5oh]

So I wonder what the reaction will be when Trouba signs and offer sheet? Will people love him like Teemu after he signed his?

 

[Aavco Cup]

So I wonder what the reaction will be when Trouba signs and offer sheet? Will people love him like Teemu after he signed his?

What makes you think that's going to happen? What team is going to do it?

 

[puck stoppa]

Ok so he was at the wedding was he smiling or did he look like he was unhappy to be there???

Him and zinger were doing shooters while Chevy watched! Obviously sign of tensions between he and gm.

 

[allan5oh]

What makes you think that's going to happen? What team is going to do it?

I should've worded it differently but the point still stands. I think a lot of fans would get small city syndrome and turn on him even if we match.

 

[mcpw]

I should've worded it differently but the point still stands. I think a lot of fans would get small city syndrome and turn on him even if we match.

Any offer sheet scenario would influence my view on management (and possibly ownership) a lot more than my view on Trouba.

 

[Boxertim]

Any offer sheet scenario would influence my view on management (and possibly ownership) a lot more than my view on Trouba.

Why? If another company offers me a job and I accept that job, that isn't necessarily the fault of my company.

 

[mcpw]

Why? If another company offers me a job and I accept that job, that isn't necessarily the fault of my company.

that describes the UFA market, not the RFA offer sheet market.

four scenarios for a Trouba offer sheet:

1. contract is reasonable, we match -- ok, but why was the offer sheet necessary? Why didn't we just offer him that contract? Were we being cheap?
2. contract is reasonable, we don't match -- what the actual ****, fire everybody
3. contract is unreasonably high, we don't match -- good for Trouba that somebody was willing to give him a ton of money, Chevy's decision to let him walk for picks is understandable here.
4. contract is unreasonably high, we match -- this is where things get weird.

 

[flyingkiwi]

No relation what so ever. Just noticed that people were referencing Trouba's lack of activity on social media, and I had seen him on Bogosians Twitter/Instagram feed that day.

I am just curious if there was anything on him no showing for the golf tournament. He tweeted he was coming into town for it, but he didnt end up showing.

I agree on the Stuart wedding, interested if he was in attendance.

To everyone concerned about his absence on social media; if you look through the dates on his Twitter and Instagram you'll see he posts sporadically at best anyway.

 

[Repoman]

Ok so he was at the wedding was he smiling or did he look like he was unhappy to be there???

My guess is Stuart fumbled the ring badly and Trouba had to retrieve it and get it up to the bride.

:shrug:

 

[Gabe Kupari]

What's the maximum people would give Trouba over say 6 or 7 years? I don't think he's proven his worth yet... i think if he wants more than 5 million x 6 or 5.5 x 7 then I'd strongly consider moving him. Is he a good player? sure. Has he proven to be better than a guy like Reilly or Seth Jones? Not really actually. Those are his comparables right now.

6 x 5? sign me up. 7 x 5.5 sign me up. Anything more than that? I don't think Trouba is worth it, I'm not sure he will ever be that # 1 d man that some people on here seem so convinced that he will become. I'm not sure the off the ice commitment is there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He is a good comparable for sure. You could justify Trouba at a little more maybe. Trouba is a little more dynamic, Reilly is not super physical, both great young dmen. But I think with Jones, Reilly etc all signing in a specific range should make it relatively easy to sign Trouba, in theory.

Don't forget Maatta & Klingberg. All of Klingberg, Rielly and Jones outscored Trouba by a wide margin last year. Scoring is THE big number at contract time. Recency is the other BIG thing.

We all know (or at least we all think we do) that Trouba has been held back by usage. There is no way , absolutely no way that Chevy would ever concede that or accept it as a point in favour of paying higher. I don't see how you can make the statement that "You could justify Trouba at a little more maybe" other than by saying something like you weren't prepared to poison the relationship for $xxx (100k or whatever). Everything that could be used to make the case pays Trouba somewhere less than Rielly by at least a small amount.

There is the possibility that you give Trouba the big money and long term and he does not progress as expected. You might be willing to pay a little extra based on projections but you have to pay close to what has actually been demonstrated.

 

[mcpw]

reminder:

as per offer sheet compensation rules, the following are the maximum AAV values for 5/6/7 year contracts and 1+2+3 and 1+1+2+3 compensation. Offer sheets above the 1+1+2+3 compensation will return four first round picks.

[table="head;]|5yr|6yr|7yr
1st+2nd+3rd|7.305M|6.087M|5.218M
1st+1st+2nd+3rd|9.131M|7.608M|6.522M
[/table]

5 years, 7.25M AAV, 36.25M total. Only 1st+2nd+3rd. That's probably the scariest one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Any offer sheet scenario would influence my view on management (and possibly ownership) a lot more than my view on Trouba.

That would depend on the details for me. What are the terms of the offer-sheet? How does management react? What sort of attitude do we see from the player?

For example if it was that speculated one from the Bruins that would have returned four 1sts, I would be a little unhappy with management if they matched.

 

[Aavco Cup]

What's the maximum people would give Trouba over say 6 or 7 years? I don't think he's proven his worth yet... i think if he wants more than 5 million x 6 or 5.5 x 7 then I'd strongly consider moving him. Is he a good player? sure. Has he proven to be better than a guy like Reilly or Seth Jones? Not really actually. Those are his comparables right now.

6 x 5? sign me up. 7 x 5.5 sign me up. Anything more than that? I don't think Trouba is worth it, I'm not sure he will ever be that # 1 d man that some people on here seem so convinced that he will become. I'm not sure the off the ice commitment is there.

Just because he wants more doesn't mean you have to move him. And you don't have to give him whatbhe wants. You don't budge and sit tight. You prepare for a bridge deal.

 

[Aavco Cup]

reminder:

as per offer sheet compensation rules, the following are the maximum AAV values for 5/6/7 year contracts and 1+2+3 and 1+1+2+3 compensation. Offer sheets above the 1+1+2+3 compensation will return four first round picks.

[table="head;]|5yr|6yr|7yr
1st+2nd+3rd|7.305M|6.087M|5.218M
1st+1st+2nd+3rd|9.131M|7.608M|6.522M
[/table]

5 years, 7.25M AAV, 36.25M total. Only 1st+2nd+3rd. That's probably the scariest one.

You're using the 2015 numbers

Here are 2016

4 firsts over 9.388M
2 1sts 2nd 3rd - 7.510M to 9.388M
1st 2nd 3rd - 5.632M to 7.510M

 

[mcpw]

whoops.

here we go

[table="head;]|5yr|6yr|7yr
1st+2nd+3rd|7.510M|6.258M|5.364M
1st+1st+2nd+3rd|9.388M|7.823M|6.706M
[/table]

 

[Whileee]

Not very many teams seem like plausible options to make an offer sheet of over $7M a season...

Really only a few bottom-end teams that would be reluctant to give up the draft pick compensation, I would think.

Can anyone name a team that seems to be a credible threat for an offer sheet? Carolina (do they need D)? Sens (do they have budget)? Yotes (do they have budget or the stomach for it)? Devils (do they want to give up the picks and do they have the budget)?

Not many more have the cap space, considering their roster and unsigned RFAs.

 

[mcpw]

Not very many teams seem like plausible options to make an offer sheet of over $7M a season...

Really only a few bottom-end teams that would be reluctant to give up the draft pick compensation, I would think.

Can anyone name a team that seems to be a credible threat for an offer sheet? Carolina (do they need D)? Sens (do they have budget)? Yotes (do they have budget or the stomach for it)? Devils (do they want to give up the picks and do they have the budget)?

Not many more have the cap space, considering their roster and unsigned RFAs.

True. Canes, Yotes, Devils are the only realistic ones, and none of them is a lock for the playoffs next season.

Sort of funny. Since the possibility of a flat cap has been mentioned, everybody was like "omg offer sheets and cap dump for negative value trades everywhere". In reality, nobody has the cap space for an offer sheet, and still it's only Chicago doing their cap dump thing (Sharp and Versteeg last year, Bickell this year). Ok, there's the Datsyuk story, but that's a unique situation.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

There is the possibility that you give Trouba the big money and long term and he does not progress as expected. You might be willing to pay a little extra based on projections but you have to pay close to what has actually been demonstrated.

Agreed, which is why a bridge might make the most sense?

See what he can do, and in good faith, pay accordingly at the end of the deal?

We win by not over investing prior, he wins by getting the contract he felt he deserved.

 

[boanst]

Not very many teams seem like plausible options to make an offer sheet of over $7M a season...

Really only a few bottom-end teams that would be reluctant to give up the draft pick compensation, I would think.

Can anyone name a team that seems to be a credible threat for an offer sheet? Carolina (do they need D)? Sens (do they have budget)? Yotes (do they have budget or the stomach for it)? Devils (do they want to give up the picks and do they have the budget)?

Not many more have the cap space, considering their roster and unsigned RFAs.

Doubtful it would be Carolina. They are abundant in young D.