Speculation: Trouba [MOD: his next contract]

[Halloween Jack]

Well there you go. I haven't really listened to 1290 since the draft

I wish I could say the same. They're just beating this topic to death every day and there isn't any actual news to report.

 

[Unholy goalie]

He'll miss part of atC because he's away at the WCoH.

I was talking about a player actually missing regular season games. Only other one I can think of is O'Reilly but that ended in a unique way

We might be at cross purposes here. I was responding to mondo3's question about whether or not Trouba specifically would sit a year. I mentioned that it was likely he would miss training camp because it is a pattern with Overhardt's clients. I said I wouldn't be surprised if he also sat out some regular season games. My reason for this (which I didn't get into before) was that it has happened before with Turris and there are some similarities in the way the negotiations are taking place. Take, for example, this interview Overhardt gave in October 2011 when Turris reportedly asked for a trade:

"This has never been about money, we've been upfront with the club from Day 1," Overhardt told ESPN.com Thursday. "We've respectfully requested that the player had the opportunity to move forward in his career by having a fresh start."​

If we look at Trouba's situation at face value, we can see that (just like in Turris' case) the dollar amount should not be an obstacle here, though for slightly different reasons. Comparables are set, stats are available, there's really no room for outlandish interpretations of dollar value or performance value. So then we get to the usage/role part of the debate which has been reported on more and more lately. Whether you believe it is an issue or not, Overhardt and Trouba's actions here are consistent with what Overhardt and Turris did.

Now.. throw Chevy into the mix and we could have a real ****-storm brewing. If there's anything I give Chevy credit for, it is staying calm and principled when making personnel decisions. I don't think he's going to bend as easily as Sather with Dubinsky, or Kekalainen with Johansen. So then we're looking at more of a Turris situation, especially with the WCOH eating up some of training camp.

How does missing regular season games help exactly. What's to be gained at that point?

Ultimately it's up to his client. Jacob won't sit out if he doesn't want to.

To your first point..

Missing TC and regular season games is the ONLY leverage Overhardt and Trouba have. That is, they can theoretically pressure the team by "hurting" them with Trouba's absence. The logic, on behalf of Overhardt and Trouba, is that the Jets will not want to suffer so they'll cough up a contract more in line with what is being asked for. There are, of course, huge risks associated with that move (what if Trouba has a poor WCOH, what if the Jets have a successful record in his absence). My guess is, given Overhardt's past that they'll be willing to gamble.

To your second point..

I think Overhardt is really driving the bus here. I don't buy the whole "well Overhardt is working for Trouba" so let's not let Trouba off the hook for the negotiation tactics, or that ultimately Trouba is going to put an end to this when he realises he just wants to play. The kid is 22, and this will be his first true payday. Overhardt can come in and say "Look what I did with all these other players. Trust me, we'll get it done for you as well. Just follow these same steps." What's Trouba really going to say? "Um, I don't think this is reasonable Mr. Overhardt. I want to play so let's get a deal done now."

Also the Winnipeg factor... Listen, I don't think this is a bad city, or even a place that a majority of players don't want to be. But. This is not a town for young single people with money. I have many friends who aren't millionaires who have left the city because it is just not yet the type of place that you can have the freedom to explore the newest and most exciting cultural trends. The WAG is not the MET or the ROM.. the concert hall is not the Grand Ole Opry.. the exchange district is not Hollywood.. etc. Winnipeg IS, however, a great family city. Far better than most. And we can see with the Jets that the type of players they retain longterm are those that are more family oriented.

Trouba probably doesn't hate it here, but he also has no real attachment or reason to stay. He also doesn't need to prove that he is a full-time NHLer. He can gamble on a trade because where is less exciting than Winnipeg? Edmonton? Maybe Calgary, but at least you're close to other things.

 

[drumzan]

Here's the article confirming Bogosian asked for a trade out of Winnipeg, for those asking...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kanes-winnipeg-return-assured-of-one-thing-noise/

 

[Aavco Cup]

We might be at cross purposes here. I was responding to mondo3's question about whether or not Trouba specifically would sit a year. I mentioned that it was likely he would miss training camp because it is a pattern with Overhardt's clients. I said I wouldn't be surprised if he also sat out some regular season games. My reason for this (which I didn't get into before) was that it has happened before with Turris and there are some similarities in the way the negotiations are taking place. Take, for example, this interview Overhardt gave in October 2011 when Turris reportedly asked for a trade:

"This has never been about money, we've been upfront with the club from Day 1," Overhardt told ESPN.com Thursday. "We've respectfully requested that the player had the opportunity to move forward in his career by having a fresh start."​

If we look at Trouba's situation at face value, we can see that (just like in Turris' case) the dollar amount should not be an obstacle here, though for slightly different reasons. Comparables are set, stats are available, there's really no room for outlandish interpretations of dollar value or performance value. So then we get to the usage/role part of the debate which has been reported on more and more lately. Whether you believe it is an issue or not, Overhardt and Trouba's actions here are consistent with what Overhardt and Turris did.

Now.. throw Chevy into the mix and we could have a real ****-storm brewing. If there's anything I give Chevy credit for, it is staying calm and principled when making personnel decisions. I don't think he's going to bend as easily as Sather with Dubinsky, or Kekalainen with Johansen. So then we're looking at more of a Turris situation, especially with the WCOH eating up some of training camp.



To your first point..

Missing TC and regular season games is the ONLY leverage Overhardt and Trouba have. That is, they can theoretically pressure the team by "hurting" them with Trouba's absence. The logic, on behalf of Overhardt and Trouba, is that the Jets will not want to suffer and cough up a contract more in line with what is being asked for. There are, of course, huge risks associated with that move (what if Trouba has a poor WCOH, what if the Jets have a successful record in his absence). My guess is, given Overhardt's past that they'll be willing to gamble.

To your second point..

I think Overhardt is really driving the bus here. I don't buy the whole "well Overhardt is working for Trouba" so let's not let Trouba off the hook for the negotiation tactics, or that ultimately Trouba is going to put an end to this when he realises he just wants to play. The kid is 22, and this will be his first true payday. Overhardt can come in and say "Look what I did with all these other players. Trust me, we'll get it done for you as well. Just follow these same steps." What's Trouba really going to say? "Um, I don't think this is reasonable Mr. Overhardt. I want to play so let's get a deal done now."

Also the Winnipeg factor... Listen, I don't think this is a bad city, or even a place that a majority of players don't want to be. But. This is not a town for young single people with money. I have many friends who aren't millionaires who have left the city because it is just not yet the type of place that you can have the freedom to explore the newest and most exciting cultural trends. The WAG is not the MET or the ROM.. the concert hall is not the Grand Ole Opry.. the exchange district is not Hollywood.. etc. Winnipeg IS, however, a great family city. Far better than most. And we can see with the Jets that the type of players they retain longterm are those that are more family oriented.

Trouba probably doesn't hate it here, but he also has no real attachment or reason to stay. He can gamble on a trade because where is less exciting than Winnipeg? Edmonton? Maybe Calgary, but at least you're close to other things.

The thing is that once the season starts the player loses leverage. He starts missing paychecks. That's money he'll never get back. The Jets are unlikely to give in at that point since the longer it goes the more it swings in their favour. It's why Subban signed and Johansen signed without missing any games.

IMO Chevy will follow the Moloney model and Trouba will be forced to sign on the Jets terms if he lets it go that far. I'm sure Overhardt learned something out of the Turris situation.

I still expect Trouba to sign and be in Jets TC shortly after he is done with the WCoH. I expect a bridge deal.

 

[Halloween Jack]

Here's the article confirming Bogosian asked for a trade out of Winnipeg, for those asking...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kanes-winnipeg-return-assured-of-one-thing-noise/

Saying things got stale (in hindsight) means he asked for a trade?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Is there a single shred of any real evidence that Trouba wants out of Winnipeg?

So much time to get a long term deal done still. I think if he was going to do a bridge it would be done already, especially if he did truly want out.

It isn't up to him. The bridge happens when BOTH sides get to the point of accepting it as the best compromise they can get.

 

[Guerzy]

Saying things got stale (in hindsight) means he asked for a trade?

Agree..

and that article was written by Damien Cox, so I'm not taking anything from it in terms of substantial insider info...

 

[Rheged]

It read more like he was open to a new opportunity than he had explicitly asked to be traded for sure.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pffffft. Lawless??? Seriously I have no idea why anyone even listens to him at all.

He actually has a pipeline to Overhardt. He's known him for a very long time. He's actually more believable in this situation than he is on most other things.

I've never been able to 'like' Lawless but he does have some connections. He usually manages to indicate things he knows from his opinions. He has stated, as fact that they are not far apart. I'm inclined to believe him but not far apart doesn't mean they will reach an agreement. The Jets and Ladd were 'not far apart' more than a year ago. They seemed to get further apart as time passed rather than getting closer.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Saying things got stale (in hindsight) means he asked for a trade?

Agree with you.
I don't see a request in that statement.
I think the Jets used the opportunity for other reasons to move him.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Saying things got stale (in hindsight) means he asked for a trade?

Agree..

and that article was written by Damien Cox, so I'm not taking anything from it in terms of substantial insider info...

It read more like he was open to a new opportunity than he had explicitly asked to be traded for sure.

Agree with you.
I don't see a request in that statement.
I think the Jets used the opportunity for other reasons to move him.

Did we all read the same article?

“I’m not sure. Haven’t put too much thought into it,” he said. “They’re a pretty loud crowd. Whatever they come up with, I’m sure it will be fun for them. I won’t pay too much attention to it. But that’s just me speaking for myself. I don’t know how Evander feels about it. But I’m there to play a game and get the two points and get out.”

The big rearguard also asked for a move out of Winnipeg, but his request wasn’t interpreted in the same way as Kane’s.

“Things went a little stale for me there in Winnipeg. I just looked at (the trade) as a new opportunity,” he said. “I wasn’t comparing who went for who, or whatever. There were a lot of people involved.

 

[Halloween Jack]

Did we all read the same article?

“I’m not sure. Haven’t put too much thought into it,†he said. “They’re a pretty loud crowd. Whatever they come up with, I’m sure it will be fun for them. I won’t pay too much attention to it. But that’s just me speaking for myself. I don’t know how Evander feels about it. But I’m there to play a game and get the two points and get out.â€

The big rearguard also asked for a move out of Winnipeg, but his request wasn’t interpreted in the same way as Kane’s.

“Things went a little stale for me there in Winnipeg. I just looked at (the trade) as a new opportunity,†he said. “I wasn’t comparing who went for who, or whatever. There were a lot of people involved.

Where does BOGOSIAN say he asked for a trade? Don't tell me you are taking the author's wording as the gospel of Bogosian

 

[Whileee]

Here's the article confirming Bogosian asked for a trade out of Winnipeg, for those asking...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/kanes-winnipeg-return-assured-of-one-thing-noise/

The situation with Bogosian in Winnipeg is more complicated than him wanting a trade. I think it was likely a mutual perspective shared by player and management.

 

[sully1410]

I really don't see how this ends well for Trouba. The guy has zero rights. Absolutely none. The only thing he can do is sit out, and thats a double edged sword. The Jets could probably limp along without Trouba, but it's his career on the line. If he sits out for too long, it may be the end of his career. And honestly...what's the alternative? The KHL? How's the Ruble doing these days? And God forbid he gets injured or something.

If Im Chevy. I hold out and let that ****er sit until he signs the six year contract. After that you work on trading him. Maybe.

 

[nobody important]

I have many friends who aren't millionaires who have left the city because it is just not yet the type of place that you can have the freedom to explore the newest and most exciting cultural trends.

Translation: They want to live where weed is legal.

 

[Whileee]

Is there a single shred of any real evidence that Trouba wants out of Winnipeg?

So much time to get a long term deal done still. I think if he was going to do a bridge it would be done already, especially if he did truly want out.

I've seen quotes from principals who have indicated that both sides are open to a long-term contract.

I haven't seen any report citing information from any of the principals that he wants out.

Suggesting that he "wants out" is therefore more speculative than suggesting that he's open to a long-term deal with the Jets.

 

[sully1410]

The situation with Bogosian in Winnipeg is more complicated than him wanting a trade. I think it was likely a mutual perspective shared by player and management.

There were a bunch of unfounded rumours swirling around about him when he was traded. I won't repeat them here because they were just that: unfounded rumours.

 

[sully1410]

I've seen quotes from principals who have indicated that both sides are open to a long-term contract.

I haven't seen any report citing information from any of the principals that he wants out.

Suggesting that he "wants out" is therefore more speculative than suggesting that he's open to a long-term deal with the Jets.

What Principals? I guess KC or Chipman could be considered a principal...

 

[nobody important]

There were a bunch of unfounded rumours swirling around about him when he was traded. I won't repeat them here because they were just that: unfounded rumours.

I think the word you were looking for is unsubstantiated, not unfounded.

 

[sully1410]

I think the word you were looking for is unsubstantiated, not unfounded.

I suppose so.

 

[Unholy goalie]

The thing is that once the season starts the player loses leverage. He starts missing paychecks. That's money he'll never get back. The Jets are unlikely to give in at that point since the longer it goes the more it swings in their favour. It's why Subban signed and Johansen signed without missing any games.

IMO Chevy will follow the Moloney model and Trouba will be forced to sign on the Jets terms if he lets it go that far. I'm sure Overhardt learned something out of the Turris situation.

I still expect Trouba to sign and be in Jets TC shortly after he is done with the WCoH. I expect a bridge deal.

I hear ya. I also believe that TSNE hold all the cards here. There is a cost/benefit ratio that factors into sitting out regular season games however. From the agent/player perspective it might be worth a few paychecks now in order to secure extra money over multiple years.

Subban is actually a good case of this. He sat out the first four games of the season (contrary to your belief), and ended up with a generous bridge deal. The bridge worked in his favour since he won the Norris the next year and was able to secure a lucrative deal as an RFA with arb rights.

Johansen is interesting. He ended up signing a 3 year bridge before the season started, but when you look at the numbers you can see why. The first two years were 3mil while the 3rd year was 6mil. A 4mil AAV seems reasonable, but it belies that backloaded year that was closer to Johansen's ask of 2 year, 13mil. Lo and behold, Johansen gets traded before that 6mil year..

Although I think that Chevy and Overhardt will get a deal done, the circumstances around Trouba are ripe for another Peca-esque situation. Chevy is not going to fold, the Jets have bodies to fill RHD and they might just do an adequate job (not as good as Troubs.. but). If Trouba does sit out part of the regular season and the Jets put up some wins during that time, this could drag on.

I still feel strongly that he'll be out for all of TC, but I'd be happy to be wrong. If he signs a bridge then he's as good as traded.

 

[Whileee]

He's definitely going to sit out of training camp. This is Overhardt's signature move. I wouldn't be surprised if he sat out some regular season games as well.

My guess is that the Trouba camp want the Jets to feel what it is like without Trouba in the lineup. A risky move, but it's the only leverage they have in this situation. I hope Chevy stands pat.

This deal isn't getting done until after September at least.

He might sit out, but it will quickly become economically disadvantageous in the longer term. Missing half a season, and as much as $3 million in salary would be very difficult to make up over a 6 year deal (he'd need to get more than an extra $0.5M per year in salary to make it financially equivalent).

$5.5M per year x 6 years is better than $6M per year x 6 years after sitting out half a season.

I think he would only sit out if there is a huge gap in salary, or he really doesn't want to stay long-term and his agent is trying to get a short-term "bridge" deal with the Jets that is very disadvantageous for the Jets. Once he holds out, the Jets can wield quite a bit of financial pressure and Trouba takes on quite a bit of financial risk.

 

[sully1410]

I hear ya. I also believe that TSNE hold all the cards here. There is a cost/benefit ratio that factors into sitting out regular season games however. From the agent/player perspective it might be worth a few paychecks now in order to secure extra money over multiple years.

Subban is actually a good case of this. He sat out the first four games of the season (contrary to your belief), and ended up with a generous bridge deal. The bridge worked in his favour since he won the Norris the next year and was able to secure a lucrative deal as an RFA with arb rights.

Johansen is interesting. He ended up signing a 3 year bridge before the season started, but when you look at the numbers you can see why. The first two years were 3mil while the 3rd year was 6mil. A 4mil AAV seems reasonable, but it belies that backloaded year that was closer to Johansen's ask of 2 year, 13mil. Lo and behold, Johansen gets traded before that 6mil year..

Although I think that Chevy and Overhardt will get a deal done, the circumstances around Trouba are ripe for another Peca-esque situation. Chevy is not going to fold, the Jets have bodies to fill RHD and they might just do an adequate job (not as good as Troubs.. but). If Trouba does sit out part of the regular season and the Jets put up some wins during that time, this could drag on.

I still feel strongly that he'll be out for all of TC, but I'd be happy to be wrong. If he signs a bridge then he's as good as traded.

I think he'll sign right before TC is set to begin personally. If he truly does want to be traded sitting out is the single worst thing you can do. If you show up and showcase what you can do then the teams are watching a kid that can play and will work hard for the team no.matter the situation. If you sit out, you look entitled.

He should only be traded if it's a deal that helps the team in the long haul.

 

[TorJet]

I really don't see how this ends well for Trouba. The guy has zero rights. Absolutely none. The only thing he can do is sit out, and thats a double edged sword. The Jets could probably limp along without Trouba, but it's his career on the line. If he sits out for too long, it may be the end of his career. And honestly...what's the alternative? The KHL? How's the Ruble doing these days? And God forbid he gets injured or something.

If Im Chevy. I hold out and let that ****er sit until he signs the six year contract. After that you work on trading him. Maybe.

I'd love for you to provide an example of a 22 year old burgeoning star defenceman whose career was ended by holding out. There is ZERO chance that, no matter how long he holds out, this is the end of his career. That is frankly a ridiculous and unsupportable notion.

The reality is, Trouba does have some degree of power in the form of asset utilization. I moved from Winnipeg to Toronto and, on my walk to work over the last 2 years, 4 (4!) separate surface parking lots have been torn up and replaced by condos in the span of 1.5km. Why? Because the land is an asset and that asset became underutilized at some point when condo prices rose to a certain level if it remained as a parking lot.

Trouba is an asset. A valuable asset at that. His power comes from sitting out and leaving the Jets with an asset that isn't being capitalized on. Potentially, Trouba and his management team could make the return in a trade the best use for the Jets of their asset (whether that be by simply not playing, not participating in extra practice, lifting sessions, etc., being problematic in the dressing room, etc.).

Unfortunately, everything seems to be pointing towards Trouba wanting out. From hiring an agent with a proven track record of getting players traded (Dubinsky, Johansson, Turris....), to the fact that there hasn't seemed to have been a lot of movement between the two sides, to the reports that have trickled out, the tea leaves are shouting "Trouba wants a trade".

And that's ok. Winnipeg is not a market for everyone. I love Winnipeg and loved living there and will likely be back. But I grew up there, having family and friends in the city and understand the appeal. There will be people that don't like playing there. In the same way, there are players that don't want to be in Toronto, New York, Florida, etc. This will happen every few years with certain players - fact of life, let's accept it and trust Chevy to make the best decision and use of the valuable assets he's compiled.

 

[Lorenzo1000]

Of course Trouba will be out for most of the training camp. The World cup potentially runs until October 1st, Semi-finals for the top 2 finishers in each group are on Sept 24/25 and the Finals are Sept 27, 29 and Oct 1st if necessary. The regular season starts Oct 12th so he'll miss a good portion of training camp regardless.