Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part V)

[salbutera]

Timmins has missed on so many first rounds is what is killing his success. His second round and later is good. He never hits the homerun with offense.

It’s not only during Timmins’ era, between the draft of 1974-2016 (inclusive) out of 53 1st round picks there have only been 11-players who carved out regular top-2 line, top pairing D or starting G with Habs.

1st line career avg: Napier, Koivu, Higgins, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk
2nd line career avg: Corson, AKos
1st pairing D: Komisarek, McDonagh, Sergachev

G: Price

In most cases career took nosedive once they left Habs. In 44-drafts a hit rate of 20%, and quite a few of those were iffy 1st or 2nd liners includes 17 top-10 players and 5 top-5 (Cam Connor, Wickenheiser, Svoboda, Price and Galchenyuk).

Spans 8-GMs including legendary Sam Pollock and the gold standard of player development Claude Ruel for 20 of those years.

 

[Whitesnake]

Maybe you should compare those 28 picks to their pairs instead of comparing them the top players in the NHL
Caufield is a very good selection, Brook was completely dominating his junior league , so was Primeau , Fleury is very nice for a young guy in the NHL, Hillis and Harris are playing great this season , Norlinder is amazing , Ylönen is progressing very well , and what to say about Romanov ... you saw how good he is with players of his age

Some just don't understand. It's not about Timmins not being able to select in the 5th round Leon Draisatl. It's about this team who can solely build on draft to make sure that they have the proper draft picks and the proper wisdom to indeed pick some great players later on, but to have as an organization great player to build your foundation on whether it's Timmins fault OR Bergevin's fault for not having a real vision.

Again, yes, you need those Fleury and those Romanov, but teams that WIN the Cup have superstars that those good players can support. Was. Is. And will ever will be. It makes no difference if Timmins has 30 picks in a year when most of them are from round 4 to round 7. Chances are he won't be able to do anything with them. You need for Bergevin to pick a vision and have top picks in the 1st round. And yues, you do need Timmins to work the magic he has to pick the Bergeron, the Weber, Marchand, Kucherov and Co you should have later on.

My analysis is TODAY. Today, you cannot tell me that Ylonen will play in our top 6. Same for Hillis. same for Harris and Norlinder on the backend. You. Can't. Yep, Romanov seems a legit top player whose offensive offensive game still needs to be determined. Yes, Caufield is a GREAT selection. I weanted him. Still want him. Couldn'T care less about his tournament. But to say he is a surefire top 6 that will be just as good on ES than on PP is too soon too tell. We need gamebreaking talent to go far. Whoever's fault it is.

 

[Whitesnake]

I don't agree, he's found many players that were offensively skilled, just that many didn't pan out in the NHL or weren't as good as hoped while several we will need to see in the years to come.

A Kostitysn, S. Kotitsyn, Grabo, Streit, Lats, Pac, Subban, Kristo, Leblanc, Nygren, Galchenyuk, Collberg, Hudon, Leks, Reway, Scherbak, Sergachev, Brook, Kotka, Hillis, Caufield, Norlinder

Montreal, what the guy means is not to recognize players that were actually good players when they were drafted. Everybody can do that. But it's like Timmins says....it's about who will translate that in the future. And while some is development, some is also their inability to know if it will transfer or not. Timmins himself will tell you that scouting is not about looking at the number of points prospects score in their draft year and pick them accordingly though...for some teams...it probably would have been better.

 

[jfm133]

The actual pipeline is way above what the team had when Bergevin came in after the 2008-2011 draft hole where Timmins was stripped of many top-100 picks, including his 1st rounder in 2008 where he would have taken John Carlson. He said in an interview with Mathis Brunet that he had Carlson 8th on his list in 2008. Also, 2012 and 2013 were two very bad years in the second round for all the teams, and those are the years where Bergevin gave Timmins many picks in the second round. Just bad timing. Often in the draft you need a part of luck or good timing. Also, it is easy to discredit our actual pipeline out of nothing. Again, remember what was said in 2009 about McDonagh, Pacioretty, Subban and even Pice.

 

[Tyson]

Drafting is one thing...properly developing those picks is quite another issue

 

[ZUKI]

Drafting is one thing...properly developing those picks is quite another issue

I agree with you on that . I used to hate Lefevre. But there is also the others factors that are hard to control ; i think about the injuries\diseases ( Reway - Bozon ) and the "dark side of Montreal's night life " . I won't name players that were rumoured to have bad reputation for their life out of the ring , but they were plenty in that list in the last decade

 

[Gjman2019]

I'm not really seeing many diamonds in the rough and guys outplaying their draft status in a big franchise changing way...At least not in the last 8 years that he's been teamed up with Bergevin.......

Some teams get themselves in a brand new championship window by hitting on late picks...(Bruins last couple years and Red Wings back in 09)

He's gotta go along with Bergevin and the rest of the staff....They gotta clean house and bring in a whole new group.........It's a no brainer really.....

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Timmins is weak recognizing offensive skill. Passed on a lot of skill. Some of it though may be blamed on character issues. His last 4 busts all had character issues of one type or another. Tinordi, Beaulieu, Galchenyuk, Leblanc. I suspect Juulsen may also as his offensive side has gone steadily south since his draft year. Not the norm. Timmins may not do his leg work. Tinordi was on steroids, Leblanc didn't love hockey, Beaulieu had an attitude. Galchenyuk just would not work hard enough to make himself great.

Leblanc walked into his new hockey team and was treated like crap. Read his article.
Galchenyuk was our more productive points/icetime and still sat and watched DD as our number one.
Beaulieu got benched every time he made a mistake.

A lot of our prospects had limitations, nobody would deny this. But we did everything we could to make them fail. SL and MT were absolutely horrific coaches to develop under.

And YES it makes a difference.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It’s not only during Timmins’ era, between the draft of 1974-2016 (inclusive) out of 53 1st round picks there have only been 11-players who carved out regular top-2 line, top pairing D or starting G with Habs.

1st line career avg: Napier, Koivu, Higgins, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk
2nd line career avg: Corson, AKos
1st pairing D: Komisarek, McDonagh, Sergachev

G: Price

In most cases career took nosedive once they left Habs. In 44-drafts a hit rate of 20%, and quite a few of those were iffy 1st or 2nd liners includes 17 top-10 players and 5 top-5 (Cam Connor, Wickenheiser, Svoboda, Price and Galchenyuk).

Spans 8-GMs including legendary Sam Pollock and the gold standard of player development Claude Ruel for 20 of those years.

From 74 to 93 the Habs were almost always among the best teams in the league and would draft low. There was Wickenheiser but he's the only top pick I can think of.

 

[Gjman2019]

So what's your final take on Timmins ?

You think he's any good ?....Actually the better question is do you want him here making the choices anymore ?

 

[shello]

I feel like there's a lot of good, even if there is bad. For starters his drafting of goalies and D. So, if someone nee is brought in ( for forwards?), I'd keep Timmins on for goalies and D.

Very few teams have drafted this combination of goalies and D over the past 15 years:
McDonagh Subban
Sergachev Streit
Mete Fleury
Emelin

Romanov Brook
Harris Juulsen
Struble Norlinder
Fairbrother

Price
Halak

Primeau

You're spot on. But it's his lack of elite game breaking talent that makes me wish for fresh blood. If Montreal were to bring someone new in and Timmonds would be fine taking a step back to primarily focus on D and goalies I would be fine with that as well. But I don't think he should be the head scout anymore

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're spot on. But it's his lack of elite game breaking talent that makes me wish for fresh blood. If Montreal were to bring someone new in and Timmonds would be fine taking a step back to primarily focus on D and goalies I would be fine with that as well. But I don't think he should be the head scout anymore

Context is important. When you look at each team's draft power and results, you will noticed something of value with a fair evaluation

 

[BLONG7]

I pass on Hunter. Nice CHL resume but I rather give Timmins a shot before I take a chance on Hunter

I think Timmins has been in our world, a little too long. We need some new fresh thinking. MB and Timmins have been together too long, and are beyond stale. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Habs Icing]

I choose Timmins to be our next GM if we make a change. Hunter is like another Bergevin IMO bud. Timmins with a savy president in charge of hockey operations is what I vote for.

I'm not sold on Timmins. His track record as head scout has been abysmal.

 

[BLONG7]

I'm not sold on Timmins. His track record as head scout has been abysmal.

Some good, some bad........not the rock star that some think he is.

 

[Milhouse40]

I choose Timmins to be our next GM if we make a change. Hunter is like another Bergevin IMO bud. Timmins with a savy president in charge of hockey operations is what I vote for.

Timmins could be an option but would also be a lot of the same.
He's not specially good at drafting, was part of many bad decision made by this organization over the years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Timmins could be an option but would also be a lot of the same.
He's not specially good at drafting, was part of many bad decision made by this organization over the years.

Disagree Timmins is not good at drafting. He is on par with his draft power based on my research. We see things differently on Timmins.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not sold on Timmins. His track record as head scout has been abysmal.

Not when you evaluate Draft power vs Production. He's been on par and he's hitting with his darts since the 17+ draft. Draft power is a big deal if you want to evaluate fairly

 

[Habs Icing]

Not when you evaluate Draft power vs Production. He's been on par and he's hitting with his darts since the 17+ draft. Draft power is a big deal if you want to evaluate fairly

Since 17+? Really?

You're looking at hope and potential. The only players that have shown anything so far are Fleury, Poehling and KK. And for me I don't think KK will live up to his #3 OA draft value. Fleury looks like a real nice piece and I like what Poehling has brought of late.

Aside from that the only one I would stake money on is Romonov. Caulfield and a few others look like nice pieces but let's get excited when they start to produce in the NHL. Between 2003 and 2016 Trevor has had a string of disastrous drafts with respites in 05 and 07.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Since 17+? Really?

You're looking at hope and potential. The only players that have shown anything so far are Fleury, Poehling and KK. And for me I don't think KK will live up to his #3 OA draft value. Fleury looks like a real nice piece and I like what Poehling has brought of late.

Aside from that the only one I would stake money on is Romonov. Caulfield and a few others look like nice pieces but let's get excited when they start to produce in the NHL. Between 2003 and 2016 Trevor has had a string of disastrous drafts with respites in 05 and 07.

No, I'm looking at probability and overall trends in the 18-21 development years. I've done my research and it's a fair evaluation in terms of draft power and actual NHL production. Draft power and how prospects are trending (age 18-21 range) is a big deal. You can choose to ignore it if you wish. Look at overall trends, not small samples only. Let me guess, you already wrote off Poehling and Brook? Come on man, don't be premature and fall for short term trends

16-19 draft years (stats before this season):
- 10th in draft power
- 7th in NHL production
- 14th in pts/game
- 1st in NHL games played (some evidence of rushing them)

The evidence I see is Timmins is on overall on par with his draft power vs NHL production. He's done very well with the extra darts we have game him since the 17+ draft years.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

So what's your final take on Timmins ?

You think he's any good ?....Actually the better question is do you want him here making the choices anymore ?

I have mixed feelings on him.

I felt that he did a great job before the new regime came in and afterwards things fell off. There are two black hole drafts that I think he’s not responsible for. In ‘08 we didn’t draft until almost the third round and 2012 just plain sucked as a whole. We also had atrocious development.

I look at Galchenyuk and Leblanc and feel they should have turned into more than they did and that probably goes for some of the lesser prospects that failed under MT/SL.

I also look at the last ten years and don’t see a lot of success. Timmins owns some of this for sure.

I feel like if we replaced him we’d be okay but he’d be way down the list. Personally I’d keep him.

 

[Gjman2019]

I have mixed feelings on him.

I felt that he did a great job before the new regime came in and afterwards things fell off. There are two black hole drafts that I think he’s not responsible for. In ‘08 we didn’t draft until almost the third round and 2012 just plain sucked as a whole. We also had atrocious development.

I look at Galchenyuk and Leblanc and feel they should have turned into more than they did and that probably goes for some of the lesser prospects that failed under MT/SL.

I also look at the last ten years and don’t see a lot of success. Timmins owns some of this for sure.

I feel like if we replaced him we’d be okay but he’d be way down the list. Personally I’d keep him.

Like i said the last 8 years are no great shakes as far as drafting is concerned...

I think this is a franchuise that needs a complete house cleaning....No left over stench of a failed era in team history........It's probably not happening but that's what this franchise needs desperately....

 

[Whitesnake]

No, I'm looking at probability and overall trends in the 18-21 development years. I've done my research and it's a fair evaluation in terms of draft power and actual NHL production. Draft power and how prospects are trending (age 18-21 range) is a big deal. You can choose to ignore it if you wish. Look at overall trends, not small samples only. Let me guess, you already wrote off Poehling and Brook? Come on man, don't be premature and fall for short term trends

16-19 draft years (stats before this season):
- 10th in draft power
- 7th in NHL production
- 14th in pts/game
- 1st in NHL games played (some evidence of rushing them)

The evidence I see is Timmins is on overall on par with his draft power vs NHL production. He's done very well with the extra darts we have game him since the 17+ draft years.

Again though, you take the draft and you make it as if it was a performance in itself. This is about getting guys you can't get through trades and UFA. This is what a draft is all about. Nobody should care that much about 4th liners that we drafted. Or bottom 2 d-man. Teams that win will if not always, very very often see their top players being ones they drafted. So far, today, 'cause it doesn't matter what we think 2017 and beyond as I have no idea how we can say he did well when most didn't show anything in the pros, but yes, it looks good. Yet...gamebreaking players in there? Remains to be seen. In the end, guys that Price picked with gamebreaking abilities...Sergachev-Gallagher-McDonagh-Pacioretty-Subban-Price.

THAT is Timmins record so far. And note that I do put Sergachev and Gallagher in there who are in no way close to Shea Weber and Nikita Kucherov, REAL gamebreakers selected beyond the 1st round. And note also that 3 out of those players are from 1 round, an obvious anomaly.

 

[Mrb1p]

Timmins sit besides Bergevin at the table. Bergevin asks Timmins what he thinks we should do. Timmins asks Churla for advices. Timmins is in charge. A lot.

Timmins is AGM, where do you want him to sit ?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Like i said the last 8 years are no great shakes as far as drafting is concerned...

I think this is a franchuise that needs a complete house cleaning....No left over stench of a failed era in team history........It's probably not happening but that's what this franchise needs desperately....

In order to do a proper evaluation, you have to look at draft power from draft to draft and compare it to actual results.

- 07 draft was one of the best years of drafting in our history, if not the best.

- 08 to 11 lacked draft power. Draft power was near bottom of the NHL and so was the results.

- 12 and 13 drafts are the huge disappointments. We had very good draft power and the production is near bottom of the NHL. Timmins deserves heat for that but we also need to look at how deep those draft years were. For example, we had 3 2nd round picks in 2013 and we got the best player of that round with our third 2nd (Lehkonen). They were just not deep drafts.

- 14, 15, 16 drafts did not have very good draft power. We had average results. Nothing to be disappointed with but we shouldn't brag either.

- 17, 18, 19 drafts have very good draft power and the trends are looking very good. It's too early to tell but the trends are good. Then add Suzuki where I am sure Timmins had a say on how good/bad he was pre trade.