Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 6)

[The Great Weal]

I’m not sure what this means, but I’ll tell you one thing I am sure of and that’s MB has got a plan. Be patient.

It means that we have the 2nd least amount of top 4 dmen/top 6 forwards/starting goalies drafted in 2008-2016.

 

[dkd]

Good read, but nothing new.

 

[Vijo Morganstein]

Definitely missing DeAngelo for Tampa, but yeah our drafting and developing is awful.

 

[The Great Weal]

Definitely missing DeAngelo for Tampa, but yeah our drafting and developing is awful.

Ya I probably missed a few or included some that I shouldn't have, but I think the point is clear that something needs to change for us.

 

[Andrei79]

Drafting is a crapshoot, development doesnt exist, you can't trade for great players or sign them either.

What does it all matter ?

 

[Deluded Puck]

This can't be all on Timmins.

Drafting is like picking seeds, the gardening and growing (i.e. development) of prospects within the org. is horrific.

 

[The Great Weal]

This can't be all on Timmins.

Drafting is like picking seeds, the gardening and growing (i.e. development) of prospects within the org. is horrific.

Maybe it's not ALL on Timmins, but he is certainly playing a factor in that. Why should we keep him? Because of 3 good years of drafting?

 

[MasterD]

Drafting is a crapshoot, development doesnt exist, you can't trade for great players or sign them either.

What does it all matter ?

This isn't PlayStation.

 

[The Great Weal]

Drafting is a crapshoot, development doesnt exist, you can't trade for great players or sign them either.

What does it all matter ?

I find it hilarious that Bergevin's motto runs on luck, so why would he be any different than say a person who has never watched sports in their life?

 

[Ezpz]

I wouldn't count Andersen for Anaheim. Carolina are the ones who scouted him; he refused to sign with them.

If Jesper Bratt is a top 6 player then so is Chucky. One 30 goal season is equal to Jesper Bratts career high in points. Bratt is very much comparable to Lehkonen.

The real point here is aside from Washington and Anaheim, most of these players were drafted in the top half of the first round. Tanking removes the mystery surrounding drafting.


Still I would gut our amateur scouting staff when we fire Bergevin. We literally could have literally not gone to the draft in 08, 09, 11, and 14 and got the same amount of assets. Juulsen's injury status could make 15 the same thing. I think Bouchard is fine.

 

[The Great Weal]

I wouldn't count Andersen for Anaheim. Carolina are the ones who scouted him; he refused to sign with them.

If Jesper Bratt is a top 6 player then so is Chucky. One 30 goal season is equal to Jesper Bratts career high in points. Bratt is very much comparable to Lehkonen.

The real point here is aside from Washington and Anaheim, most of these players were drafted in the top half of the first round. Tanking removes the mystery surrounding drafting.


Still I would gut our amateur scouting staff when we fire Bergevin. We literally could have literally not gone to the draft in 08, 09, 11, and 14 and got the same amount of assets. Juulsen's injury status could make 15 the same thing. I think Bouchard is fine.

While I disagree with Anaheim, you can takeaway one out of their unreal 13. I already pointed out how New Jersey is the worst. Having 2/3 good players(none of which are stars) is simply unacceptable.

 

[Deluded Puck]

Maybe it's not ALL on Timmins, but he is certainly playing a factor in that. Why should we keep him? Because of 3 good years of drafting?

As far as i'm concerned i saw too many decent/good prospects fail to improve at all whilst with the habs/farm club to say it's all on Timmins.

if you want to fire him, go ahead, be my guest. Just do not expect anything to change. The Habs need root-and-branch upheaval throughout the organisation on how they develop their prospects.

 

[Forsead]

I did a similar evaluation 2-3 years ago and some posters were using false arguments and made everything to deviate from my point so the debate was really poor. Here's what it looked :

I was a fan of Timmins, but as others pointed out his record when drafting in the late first round is bad.

Since he took over in 2003 and to 2012, I counted an average of 4.77 players on the last 14 spots of each year draft (which mean an average of 0.34) that became a "significant" player for an NHL team. What I mean by a "significant" player is either a good goalie, a top 3 Defenseman or a top 6 forward. I did not count after 2012, because IMO it's still too early to tell. Also, I considered that spots 16 to 30 are late first round.

Between 2003 to 2016 we had a chance of taking 9 players as late first rounder. let's look at them:

2004 - Kyle Chipchura : 4th line center, so no;
2006 - David Fisher : bust, so no;
2007 - Max Pacioretty : YES;
2009 - Louis Leblanc : bust, so no;
2010 - Jarred Tinordi : bust, so no;
2011 - Nathan Beaulieu : has yet to establish himself, so no for right now, but we will see;
2013 - Michael McCarron : too early to confirm, but as of right now I don't think he projects as a top 6 player;
2014 - Nikita Scherbak : too early to tell;
2015 - Noah Juulsen : too early to tell;

So as of right now, there's only 1 player out of 9 and if it doesn't get better this is not simply mediocre, but really below average (the average would be 0.34 x 9 = 3 players).

Yes Timmins did some good picks and some late round steals, but his record in the late first round is killing the Habs depth and bargainning power.

While all of them are isolated cases, the problem is that the track record is years and years of bad first round drafting...well at least bad late first round. Looking at the record, my only hope is really Scherbak as I'm not sold on Juulsen development.

If only Habs would be average they would have two additionnal clear cut top 6 forwards/top 3 defenseman. That would be such a difference for trades or on the ice.

Like I said in my post that you just quoted, Since Timmins took over in 2003 and to 2012, I counted an average of 4.8 players taken on the last 14 spots of each year draft (which mean an average of 4.8/14 = 0.34) that became a "significant" player for an NHL team. What I mean by a "significant" player is either a good goalie, a top 3 Defenseman or a top 6 forward. I did not count after 2012, because IMO it's still too early to tell. Also, I considered that spots 16 to 30 are late first round.

The average would be 0.34 x 9 late round spots = 3 players. Here's what I considered:

2003 : Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry = 6
2004 : Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Andrej Meszaros, Cory Schneider, Mike Green = 5
2005 : Martin Hanzal, Tuukka Rask, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Niskanen, Steve Downie = 6
2006 : Chris Stewart, Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Berglund, Nick Foligno = 5
2007 : Max Pacioretty, Mikael Backlund, David Perron = 3
2008 : Jake Gardiner, Jordan Eberle, John Carlson = 3
2009 : Nick Leddy, Chris Kreider, Marcus Johansson, Kyle Palmieri = 4
2010 : Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Hayes, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Charlie Coyle, Brock Nelson = 6
2011 : Oscar Klefbom, Rickard Rakell, Vladislav Namestnikov, Phillip Danault = 4
2012 : Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Olli Maatta, Brady Skjei, Tanner Pearson = 6

6+5+6+5+3+3+4+6+4+6 = 48 "significant" players
48 players / 10 drafts = 4.8
4.8 / 14 spots = 0.34 chance of drafting a "significant" player with a late first round draft pick on average.

I have not considered some bordeline guys like Brendan Smith, Tyler Ennis and Michael Del Zotto for example. Of course we will need to still wait with the 2011 and 2012 drafts as it is still early, but I project theses players to stay good.

Right now, the Habs are a someone could consider that we are at 1/6 = 0.167, as it's pretty much a given that one of Beaulieu or McCarron will not be considered a "significant" player in the NHL, this mean that the Habs are bad.

Please have a look at my post just above ! You can challenge if you want, but these players are still much better that what the Habs have drafted in the late first round since 2003 safe for Pacrioetty.

I consider them as good goalies or top 6 forward/top 3 D for at least a good chunk of their careers.

Let's look at the players you find questionable :

Wolski : During a 6 seasons period between 2006-2007 and 2010-2011 he got on average 0,611 pts/gp which means 50 pts on average for 82 gp.
Cogliano : The guy is pretty consistent and got 333 pts 786 gb which is a career average for 0.424 pts/gp which means 35 pts on average for 82 gp over 11 seasons.
Steve Downie : During a 3 seasons period between 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 he got on average 0,564 pts/gp which means 46 pts on average for 82 gp. All this before loosing a season throught injuries and never being the same anymore.
Chris Stewart : During a 4 seasons period between 2009-2010 and 2012-2013 he got on average 0,688 pts/gp which means 56 pts on average for 82 gp. All this before falling off a cliff.
Varlamov : How is he not a good goalie, not superstar status but at least starter...
Palmieri : Last three seasons he got on average 0,635 pts/gp which means 52 pts on average for 82 gp. Please note that he also add a 30 goals season.
Gardiner : A 40 pts defenseman that can play both ways.


Of course guys taken on 2011 and 2012 are still young and don't have a 8 years track record so I'm following my projection on what I see.

Namestnikov : the guy is on the upswing and I think will explode soon, he's on the verge on becoming a top 6.
Danault : I don't see how he will not get more 40 pts season and I think he will get more pts.
Vasilevskiy : How is that not a good young goalie on the upswing ?
Pearson : Good progression, and last season got 44 pts in 80 gb.


So in which world in this not a list of good goalies, top 6 forward (some a weaker of course) and top 3 defensemans ? this is not the 80's anymore with top6 forward starting at 80 pts.

Is there any defenseman listed you would not take before Beaulieu at the same age ?

Yes I'm doing all this to make people look bad

Let me add Michael Del Zotto and Tyler Ennis then and will calcule the 16th pick, but will divide by 15...Let's just say it's for the last 15 spots of the dratf then (my bad!)

50 players / 10 drafts = 5 players / draft
5 players / draft / 15 spots = 0.333 player / draft

0.333 player / draft x 9 drafts = 3 players

Same conclusion!

IMO right now, I think it was a pretty fair assessment while I did make some mistakes along the calculations and players selections. I had it right for McCaron and Beaulieu though.

Here's the link for the thread :
Time for a Drafting and Development Change

 

[Deluded Puck]

I did a similar evaluation 2-3 years ago and some posters were using false arguments and made everything to deviate from my point so the debate was really poor. Here's what it looked :













IMO right now, I think it was a pretty fair assessment while I did make some mistakes along the calculations and players selections. I had it right for McCaron and Beaulieu though.

Here's the link for the thread :
Time for a Drafting and Development Change

I really like this analysis but I cannot help but feel many players who you named would have had their development stalled within the Habs org.

 

[Forsead]

I really like this analysis but I cannot help but feel many players who you named would have had their development stalled within the Habs org.

Of course ! However, the number are really bad on a long term basis (maybe we should update this) as far as late first round pick go. This is simply put Timmins great weakness IMO. At some poitn he should be held accountable.

 

[Habs]

Timmins and Bergy Rule.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Development has been far worse than our drafting-which has been bad. Part of that may be direction from our gm. We already know MT didnt believe the nhl was a dev league and sly directed players to NOT play with skill. So if you arent developing at the nhl or ahl level for 6 years.

We had sergechev and traded him away. How come we cant sign or trade for players if we cant draft well. Move the pick if we have no idea what to do with them. So worried about holding on to draft picks, all the while rarely moving soon to be nonhabs for an extra pick or two...because anything can happen in the playoffs. Moving picks for otts, kings, type moves. Directionless ship right here.

Even when we have kids that may have talent we dont play them where they belong. Grinding coaches gonna grind. The reason I saw dev is more of an issue, we cant even develop a 3rd line dman or 4th line winger. That takes a special kind of stupid to barely develop a kyle chipchura like player in almost a decade.

 

[Kriss E]

As I said in another thread, complete house cleaning.
Such mediocrity has been tolerated in this organization, I'd be paranoid everyone was now contagious. I'd fire the parking attendant and maintenance guys too....fire every single person associated to this franchise.

 

[Archijerej]

Again, development notwithstanding, can anyone say with a straight face that this guy has been elite at his job? And can Montreal be a contender without elite drafting?

 

[jaffy27]

As I said in another thread, complete house cleaning.
Such mediocrity has been tolerated in this organization, I'd be paranoid everyone was now contagious. I'd fire the parking attendant and maintenance guys too....fire every single person associated to this franchise.

Leave Youppi out of this

 

[Adam Michaels]

The Bicep Club, baby!!!!

 

[CHfan1]

Build through the draft:

Since 2012, Kotkaniemi has the second most points of any player who was drafted by the Habs and who is still with the organization with 41 points. Only Lehkonen has more with 101 points.

Since the 2008 draft only two Habs drafted players (Galchenyuk and Gallagher) have more career points than Kucherov had in a single season last year. Lehkonen is third in career points with 101 since the 2008 draft.

 

[Habs4Life]

The Bicep Club, baby!!!!

Be great for our next gameday thread.

 

[Milhouse40]

It's something i wrote about lately…...but mostly bout the draft of 2012 to 2015.
That's four years of drafting.

How come a team like Carolina, without practically no budget for scouts did better than the Habs?
And that's including our 1st round pick and excluding theirs.

Aho, Slavin, Pesce, McGinn, Wallmark, Foegele all were drafted after the 1st round and are now regular NHLer.
Galchenyuk, DLR and Lehkonen is the only thing the Habs got.

That's beyond terrible.
5 vs 3 for the Habs…..and i repeat, that include our 1st and excluded theirs.

It makes me laugh so hard that suddenly Fans believes that all those players we drafted like Olofsson, Ylonen, Ikonen, Harris, Hillis and others will all now make it cause you know, suddenly, we're apparently good at drafting.

 

[FinnHab]

Lets all praise dynamic duo MB and Timmins!