Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 6)

[ottawa]

They'll probably reach for someone rated in the twenties.

When have they ever come close to reaching that far? Can you point out which of the following were reaches and by roughly how many picks?

2009: Louis Leblanc
2010: Jarred Tinordi
2011: Nathan Beaulieu
2012: Alex Galchenyuk
2013: Michael McCarron
2014: Nikita Scherbak
2015: Noah Juulsen
2016: Mikhail Sergachev

Click to read more...

 

[calder candidate]

I have complied the draft data since 2003 I assign each pick a value base on the draft on value chart from 917pts for the 1st pick to 1 for the last pick ( for a 7 draft the final pick is worth 44pts) I have reorder player in each draft base on a formula that take position (G/D/FW) GP, G, A, PTS and PIM un consideration to reassign a draft order and reassign the same draft value to determine how the pick was good, also how many and the value of player they missed. teams like SJ, BOS, NSH are on top and NYI, EDM and FLO are at the bottom and mtl is pretty much right in the middle, nowhere near the top anyway you look at it... They might have turn it around a bit they also might have missed on KK... Timmins might not be the worst but I think we can put this myth about being the best to bed...

 

[montreal]

I got to think there's some kind of software that could be created that gives a value to each draft pick based off where it was picked, how well that pick did, takes into consideration the draft class overall and say 10 or 15 or 20 picks that followed to see if a better pick in that range of picks would have been the better choice. I'm not tech guy so it would be over my head. Just a thought but would be interesting to see. Of course there's still the whole lousy development problem and rushing kids to the NHL too soon that clearly aren't ready problem that continues despite how many times it has blown up in our face. I mean how many f***ing times does it take to make a mistake and keep repeating it before you finally say f*** me that doesn't seem to be working out too well.

 

[Hannibal]

The elephant in the room.

Must be fired.

 

[Chili]

The amateur scouts have not found enough talent, until that changes everything else is a house of cards.

 

[ahmedou]

What can he controls? That’s the question I often ask to myself.

 

[Scintillating10]

What is crippling Montreal has been their drafting. Timmins first round picks have been brutal. Something like 6 straight misses from 2009 to 2014. With Juulsen struggling in Laval strong chance it will go to 7. No team can compete missing 7 straight first round picks. There is just too much parity in the league to compensate for missing out on so much young talent.

The probem I see with many of their first round picks is many had character issues. Leblanc didn't like hockey, Beaulieu had an attiude problem, Galchenyuk wasn't always in good shape. These are things which scouts should have been looking for and picked up.

I know Timmins put too much early on in gym rats, which costs the team to waste a few picks. Guys like McCarron, Crisp, etc... But the big factor has been Timmins inability as a talent evalator, recognize star offensive talent. There have been many stars over the years he missed, ROR to Corey Perry, Parise, Getzlaf to scratch the surface. The biggests ones were right in his own back yard. Bergeron and Giroux. How do you miss future hall of fame talent he must have seen play dozens of times? There is just no excuse for it other than his lack of recognizing star scorers.

 

[montreal]

What is crippling Montreal has been their drafting. Timmins first round picks have been brutal. Something like 6 straight misses from 2009 to 2014. With Juulsen struggling in Laval strong chance it will go to 7. No team can compete missing 7 straight first round picks. There is just too much parity in the league to compensate for missing out on so much young talent.

The probem I see with many of their first round picks is many had character issues. Leblanc didn't like hockey, Beaulieu had an attiude problem, Galchenyuk wasn't always in good shape.. These are things which scouts should have been looking for and picked up.

I know Timmins put too much early on in gym rats, which costs the team to waste a few picks. Guys like McCarron, Crisp, etc... But the big factor has been Timmins inability as a talent evalator, recognize star offensive talent. There have been many stars over the years he missed, ROR to Corey Perry, Parise, Getzlaf to scratch the surface. The biggests ones were right in his own back yard. Bergeron and Giroux. How do you miss future hall of fame talent he must have seen play dozens of times? There is just no excuse for it other than his lack of recognizing star scorers.

how is Juulsen struggling in Laval when he's injured? When he was in the lineup he was playing very good defensive hockey. If not for the injuries he's very likely a solid 3rd pairing D.

Galchenyuk wasn't a miss, he put up 197 pts in 305 games from '14 to '18 despite not being handled very well. Plus he turned into Domi who got over 70 pts last year.

Clearly Timmins has made a number of mistakes and I doubt anyone would say he's had much help from the development side under MB. As for McCarron, Crisp, he said they made a mistake that year going for size, funny how people point the finger at him for that yet no word on Churla who MB brought in that year and I would bet everything I own that MB had a hand in the more size push.

Also I removed your comment on Tinordi, it's against the rules as there is no prof of that so don't post it again. I don't know if it's true or not but it's not allowed by site rules.

 

[CoopersFalls]

If you discount 2007, Timmins’ record is hideous in the first round as a collective.

 

[montreal]

If you discount 2007, Timmins’ record is hideous in the first round as a collective.

it's not since you have Price there as one of the leagues best goalies for a spell, Galchenyuk for all his warts still put up solid numbers for us ala Kostitsyn, Sergachev looks like a really good pick. Kotka while struggling this year is on pace for a career high in goals as he's only 4 away from last year. Poehling we'll see, Juulsen is injured. Beaulieu is a bottom pairing/7th D, Tinordi an AHLer unless he somehow sticks with Nashville, Chipchura was a solid 4th liner.

Fischer of course was a terrible pick, you are going to miss on some 1st round picks, especially when you get into the 20's. McCarron and Tinordi they clearly made a mistake on going for size, both were picked in the 20's. Leblanc was a fine pick at the time. Kostitsyn if not for it being such an amazing draft it wouldn't be that bad, plus he was a rookie head scout that year. Scherbak was a bad pick in hindsight, at the time it wasn't bad though, plus he was handled as poorly as any skilled prospect i have seen but that's still on Timmins, another pick in the '20s.

I'm not saying it's been good, his record with top 15 picks though is solid imo, yes he's had several mistakes with picks in the '20's and he didn't get any help for years from our development staff. He needs to do a better job with his non top picks for sure.

 

[Whitesnake]

I got to think there's some kind of software that could be created that gives a value to each draft pick based off where it was picked, how well that pick did, takes into consideration the draft class overall and say 10 or 15 or 20 picks that followed to see if a better pick in that range of picks would have been the better choice. I'm not tech guy so it would be over my head. Just a thought but would be interesting to see. Of course there's still the whole lousy development problem and rushing kids to the NHL too soon that clearly aren't ready problem that continues despite how many times it has blown up in our face. I mean how many ****ing times does it take to make a mistake and keep repeating it before you finally say **** me that doesn't seem to be working out too well.

If it would exist, it still would be objective based on the person who did that. Not sure why we need a software to analyse results. Whether it's his fault or not his fault, you can be fired. Not always a GM's fault, and they are fired. Not always a coach's fault, but they are fired. Not always a player's fault, but they are traded. Not sure why it can't be applied to a head scout.

So anything made by man is subjective. For every draft, maybe the top 10 is usually almost set in stone. But even late 1st round, chances are you could think that late 1st till late 2nd round holds the same value...though it depends of the strength of the draft. But you don't exactgly know the strength of the draft till it's time to do a re-draft. But then when you evaluate draft later on, we are called to use hindsight. And then, when people want to prove that he's not that bad after all, they asked posters what we thought about this or that prospect to prove that we can be wrong too. Which is awesome based on the fact that we aren't paid to do that...and we don't have every access those scouts have.

So this debate will never end. Will be immensely subjective. And nobody will change their minds.

 

[montreal]

Not sure why we need a software to analyse results..

to remove basis, why do they have advanced stats, why did they come up with moneyball. I would be interested to see if they could come up with something that grades the picks but takes in other factors and scores them over a long period.

 

[Whitesnake]

to remove basis, why do they have advanced stats, why did they come up with moneyball. I would be interested to see if they could come up with something that grades the picks but takes in other factors and scores them over a long period.

But a draft is its own beast. Especially at 18 years old. Again, how do you evaluate strength of draft? And some drafts, you could maybe interchange the 5th round with the 3rd round. The top 5 is rock solid on 1 draft. The top 15 on another year etc.

 

[calder candidate]

I got to think there's some kind of software that could be created that gives a value to each draft pick based off where it was picked, how well that pick did, takes into consideration the draft class overall and say 10 or 15 or 20 picks that followed to see if a better pick in that range of picks would have been the better choice. I'm not tech guy so it would be over my head. Just a thought but would be interesting to see. Of course there's still the whole lousy development problem and rushing kids to the NHL too soon that clearly aren't ready problem that continues despite how many times it has blown up in our face. I mean how many ****ing times does it take to make a mistake and keep repeating it before you finally say **** me that doesn't seem to be working out too well.

I have done this in excel I have all the data from 2003 to 2019... like you say it can’t account for development or bad trade but regardless we are very avg. even the best team have bust but when the hit they have player with higher impact or just miss a less player or smaller miss at key picks vs. bad and avg. team.

the one thing that impossible to say is that you can have two team with the exact same list and the team that pick first ended up with the busts and the other team ended up with the superstar... technically there are equal but the result can be drastically different. Since we don’t have any teams draft list we can saw who had made the best job we can only see how they did we the player available to them.

 

[Tabarouette]

2003 to 2016
Success is defined as 100 games played in the NHL, which is an incredibly low standard to have

this is just bad.

 

[Hannibal]

How many lives does he have?

How many more first round bust is he allowed to make?

 

[calder candidate]

to remove basis, why do they have advanced stats, why did they come up with moneyball. I would be interested to see if they could come up with something that grades the picks but takes in other factors and scores them over a long period.

in Vancouver a journalist had redraft a few years but just pick the guy with the most goal in is draft season and Vancouver would have ended up with significantly better picks...

Hockey is a lot more complicated than baseball... but is also run by a bunch of ex players and old school guy switch can be right sometime but even the broke clock is right twice a day.

 

[Habs]

Funny how many of us were mocked for calling out TT 3 years ago and nothing has changed since.

oh and spare me the Romanov CC hype till they play a season here

 

[26Mats]

Funny how many of us were mocked for calling out TT 3 years ago and nothing has changed since.

oh and spare me the Romanov CC hype till they play a season here

Sorry guy, Timmins isn't the one leaving 6.5 million on the cap, signing grinders, and refusing Perron, Duclair and other UFA's that want to come here - and saying he wouldn't sign a player like Nyquist because he's not a fan of the player.

 

[Habs]

Sorry guy, Timmins isn't the one leaving 6.5 million on the cap, signing grinders, and refusing Perron, Duclair and other UFA's that want to come here - and saying he wouldn't sign a player like Nyquist because he's not a fan of the player.

No but its not like using 6million in cap space would fix the awful prospect success rate.

 

[26Mats]

No but its not like using 6million in cap space would fix the awful prospect success rate.

If 2 of KK, Poehling, and Caufield don't work out he should be toast - or at least relieved of handling forward selections.

His record for D and goalies is among the best in the league:

McDonagh Subban
Streit Sergachev
Mete Fleury
Emelin

Romanov Brook
Struble Norlinder
Harris Juulsen
Fairbrother

Price
Halak

Primeau

 

[calder candidate]

2003 to 2016
Success is defined as 100 games played in the NHL, which is an incredibly low standard to have

this is just bad.

A 100 game in the NHL isn’t a successful pick... most 1st will play a 100 games even if the are bad... because the team will give them a chance and will ship them out or a other team will give them a shot.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

A 100 game in the NHL isn’t a successful pick... most 1st will play a 100 games even if the are bad... because the team will give them a chance and will ship them out or a other team will give them a shot.

I agree 400 and more games should be labelled "success" from 2003 to 2013.

That would be more interesting.

 

[The Great Weal]

I genuinely don't understand how some people don't think Timmins is a problem. So I decided to compare the Habs drafting record to all the other teams in the league.

Good players to me mean top 4 dmen/top 6 forward/starting goalie. I won't include 2017-2019 because it's too soon imo, but in that time we have drafted ONE top 4 dman in Sergachev using a top 10 pick and ONE top 6 forward in Gallagher in the 5th. I struggle to call Galchenyuk a top 6 player at this stage because I have doubts if a team will even sign him next year so you can be the judge on whether or not we have 2 or 3 good players drafted.

Anaheim(13): Jake Gardiner, Justin Schultz, Kyle Palmieri, Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, Rickard Rakell, John Gibson, William Karlsson, Hampus Lindholm, Frederik Andersen, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, Ondrej Kase
Arizona(6): OEL, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, Jacob Chychrun
Boston(5): Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, David Pastrnak, Jake Debrusk, Charlie McAvoy
Buffalo(5): Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel
Calgary(5): TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Adam Fox
Carolina(8): Brian Dumoulin, Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk, Jacob Slavin, Elias Lindholm, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Sebastian Aho
Chicago(6): Kevin Hayes, Philipp Danault(ducks for cover), Brandon Saad, Teuvo Teravainen, Nick Schmaltz, Alex Debrincat
Colorado(6): Matt Duchene, ROR, Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen
Columbus(7): Cam Atkinson, Ryan Johansen, Ryan Murray, Joonas Korpisalo, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski, PLD
Dallas(3): Reilly Smith, John Klingberg, Esa Lindell
Detroit(7): Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Petr Mrazek, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek
Edmonton(9): Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, RNH, Oscar Klefbom, Erik Gustafson, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, John Marino
Florida(6): Jacob Markstrom, Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Mike Matheson, Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad
LA(4): Drew Doughty, Brayden Schenn, Slava Voynov, Colin Miller
Minnesota(7): Nick Leddy, Darcy Keumper, Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, Alex Tuch
Nashville(6): Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, Seth Jones, Viktor Arvidsson, Samuel Girard
New Jersey(3): Adam Larsson, Damon Severson, Jesper Bratt
NYI(6): Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic, Jared Spurgeon, John Tavares, Anders Lee, Matthew Barzal
NYR(4): Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, JT Miller, Brady Skjei
Ottawa(6): Erik Karlsson, Robin Lehner, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad, Thomas Chabot
Philly(5): Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere, Travis Sanehim, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny
Pittsburgh(2 or 3): Bryan Rust? Matt Murray, Jake Guentzel
San Jose(3): Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Timo Meier.
St.Louis(6): Alex Pietrangelo, Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Binnington, Colton Parayko, Vince Dunn
Tampa(8 or 9): Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Andrei Vasilevski, Nikita Gusev?, Jonathan Drouin, Brayden Point, Tony Deangelo
Toronto(5 or 6): Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott?, Auston Matthews
Vancouver(2 or 3): Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser, Ben Hutton?
Washington(7): John Carlson, Braden Holtby, Dmitri Orlov, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Philipp Grubauer, Filip Forsberg, Jakub Vrana
Winnipeg(from 2011-2016 (7)): Mark Scheifele, Jacob Trouba, Connor Hellebyuck, Josh Morrissey, Nilojak Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine

Dallas has the same amount of good drafted players as us but their three are much better than our 2/3. New Jersey has the same as us and they have been awful, no surprise.

Pens have less but Rust, Murray and Guentzel are better than Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Sergachev for sure, they also had no 1sts in 4 of those years. Same with San Jose.

Vancouver's 2 or 3 players beat our 3 pretty easily, but they also fired their scouts during this period IIRC.

In conclusion, the teams that have the same number as us all have proper reasons and/or made up for it by having 2/3 better players than our 2/3 with the exception of New Jersey. I know coaching and development hasn't been good here, but that record is pathetic and something needs to change.

So to those that still support Timmins, please help me understand why.

 

[Nedved]

I’m not sure what this means, but I’ll tell you one thing I am sure of and that’s MB has got a plan. Be patient.