Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 10)

[Habs]

OK, but that is not addressing my point which is that it could have gone worse and we always look back and imagine taking the best guys... but at the time of those same people, many wanted Kotkienemi or worse.

To your point, I don't agree that Ottawa is a show in to become a great team again. They have some good young players but they may have some more bumpy roads. As for the Habs... they have a good group of emerging young players. Of course the big question is.... how good? Oh and how long can Cary Price be effective (if at all....)

I never said the Sens would be a 'great team again' , I just said their rebuild is on track and moving fast. They got rid of EK, Hoffman etc when the stock was high, that's how its done. What does Bergy do with Webs and Price? The only good news for Weber is that Nashville has to eat his contract if he retires early. That Josh Anderson contract is huge as well, and 10 years later we still don't have a #1 C. He has been looking for a Dman to play with Weber for 5 years. This team is going to be in trouble when Price is gone, who is going to stop the puck?

You have to invest in better scouting. Montreal has 'quantity' in scouting, but not 'quality'.

 

[WinterLion]

I never said the Sens would be a 'great team again' , I just said their rebuild is on track and moving fast. They got rid of EK, Hoffman etc when the stock was high, that's how its done. What does Bergy do with Webs and Price? The only good news for Weber is that Nashville has to eat his contract if he retires early. That Josh Anderson contract is huge as well, and 10 years later we still don't have a #1 C. He has been looking for a Dman to play with Weber for 5 years. This team is going to be in trouble when Price is gone, who is going to stop the puck?

You have to invest in better scouting. Montreal has 'quantity' in scouting, but not 'quality'.

I do agree that Ottawa did the right think getting rid of their guys. We did the same with patches, but not Weber and Price and time will tell if that was a good move.

The fact is that there really aren't any great scouting staffs anymore. Almost all the teams are close to equally mediocre... so quantity and quality are about the same thing. The current group of prospects is a very nice mix. If we can't get a franchise player somehwere in the 21 and unders in this organization that would really suck...

 

[Habs]

I do agree that Ottawa did the right think getting rid of their guys. We did the same with patches, but not Weber and Price and time will tell if that was a good move.

The fact is that there really aren't any great scouting staffs anymore. Almost all the teams are close to equally mediocre... so quantity and quality are about the same thing. The current group of prospects is a very nice mix. If we can't get a franchise player somehwere in the 21 and unders in this organization that would really suck...

I believe Montreal has the highest payroll for scouts, and i don't know if it started last year or the year before. However I have zero faith in Timmins or Bergy to deliver a franchise draft pick, they will mess up CC somehow, don't you worry.

 

[WinterLion]

I believe Montreal has the highest payroll for scouts, and i don't know if it started last year or the year before. However I have zero faith in Timmins or Bergy to deliver a franchise draft pick, they will mess up CC somehow, don't you worry.

Yeah I know you guys all feel that way. I understand the frustration.

It's more than likely player X won't become a star... but the more you have the better the chances.

You may be right though... the difficult thing is that we won't really know for 5 years or so when all these picks start to mature into players...

I like the young guys but we need some to explode if we are going to become a contender anytime soon.

 

[Habs]

Yeah I know you guys all feel that way. I understand the frustration.

It's more than likely player X won't become a star... but the more you have the better the chances.

You may be right though... the difficult thing is that we won't really know for 5 years or so when all these picks start to mature into players...

I like the young guys but we need some to explode if we are going to become a contender anytime soon.

Since Timmins got here, how many first rounders do we have to show for it? First rounders that have made the team and been impact players? Besides Sergachev, who else? Was Price a TT pick or a Gainey? What do we have to show for the last 10 years of first round picks?

 

[SakuKoivu11]

Since Timmins got here, how many first rounders do we have to show for it? First rounders that have made the team and been impact players? Besides Sergachev, who else? Was Price a TT pick or a Gainey? What do we have to show for the last 10 years of first round picks?

Price
Mcdonagh
Pacioretty
Subban
Sergachev

TT is still living off that 2007 draft year.

 

[Habs]

Price
Mcdonagh
Pacioretty
Subban
Sergachev

TT is still living off that 2007 draft year.

yeah but just first round picks ... not much to remember is there ?

 

[26Mats]

Price
Mcdonagh
Pacioretty
Subban
Sergachev

TT is still living off that 2007 draft year.

Kk, Poehling, and Caufield are big for his legacy.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

If he can entirely overhaul his skating then he has a chance but his stride would make Pierre Dagenais cringe. He is young enough to make such a drastic improvement, hopefully he can pull it off because he has some real upside with the rest of his game.

So between him and Jack Smith, we got a guy who can play but can't skate, and a guy who can skate but can't play.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Jacques Martin was a good coach in my opinion.

I didn't like some choices, but was better than the last decade. Honestly I feel coaches have decided in the Molson era to keep ECLs low by destroying young players. That or we have supreme incompetence in development, both on and off the ice. I would rather give a big paycheck to kids to play great than pay for an old vet to take up development time from youngsters and play "not to lose".

ETA Staal plays not to lose, corey perry plays to win IMO. I don't have an issue with Perry.

Perry is like when we had gilmour on our team we still remember it. Staal is like when we signed Brent Sopel. Great player many moons ago but nothing left in the tank when they get to their final destination. The graveyard of the Habs Retirement Home for Veteran Players

 

[WinterLion]

Since Timmins got here, how many first rounders do we have to show for it? First rounders that have made the team and been impact players? Besides Sergachev, who else? Was Price a TT pick or a Gainey? What do we have to show for the last 10 years of first round picks?

Well actually there are all kinds. Basically the core of team was built with draft picks... now I'm not going to argue it's a great core, but there is a lot more depth in our system now than there has been in the past. There was 3 terrible years of drafting in a row.... I will admit that... but we were also only picking 4 or players per draft.

Mcdonagh (ouch)
Price
Subban = Weber
Gallagher
Galchenyuk = Anderson
Paccioretti = Tatar & Suzuki
Sergachev = Drouin

 

[Lucky Luke]

Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk
Juulsen over Aho
Scherbak over Anybody
McCarron over Theodore
Tinordi over Kuznetsov
Leblanc over O'Reilly
Fischer over Giroux

And this guy still has his job?..............Incredible.

 

[Habs]

Well actually there are all kinds. Basically the core of team was built with draft picks... now I'm not going to argue it's a great core, but there is a lot more depth in our system now than there has been in the past. There was 3 terrible years of drafting in a row.... I will admit that... but we were also only picking 4 or players per draft.

Mcdonagh (ouch)
Price
Subban = Weber
Gallagher
Galchenyuk = Anderson
Paccioretti = Tatar & Suzuki
Sergachev = Drouin

Subban and Gallagher were 2nd and 5th round picks. Since Timmins got here in 1999, his notable first round picks in 17 years are : Ryan McDonagh, Sergachev and Price. He oversaw the drafts that had the team draft players like Komisarek, Kostitsyn, Fischer, Higgins, Leblanc, Tinordi, Beaulieu, McCarron, Scherback, Poehling and Kotkaniemi. 17 years of first round picks, and so far Price/McDonagh have shown to be franchise players. Look at the talent they passed on in those draft years, and tell me again how he has a job?

You cannot blow your first round picks with the frequency our scouting does, and create a positive future. How the GM and entire scouting crew have jobs is amazing and yet unjustified because they are all incompetent.

 

[WinterLion]

Subban and Gallagher were 2nd and 5th round picks. Since Timmins got here in 1999, his notable first round picks in 17 years are : Ryan McDonagh, Sergachev and Price. He oversaw the drafts that had the team draft players like Komisarek, Kostitsyn, Fischer, Higgins, Leblanc, Tinordi, Beaulieu, McCarron, Scherback, Poehling and Kotkaniemi. 17 years of first round picks, and so far Price/McDonagh have shown to be franchise players. Look at the talent they passed on in those draft years, and tell me again how he has a job?

You cannot blow your first round picks with the frequency our scouting does, and create a positive future. How the GM and entire scouting crew have jobs is amazing and yet unjustified because they are all incompetent.

The problem with that group is that the only true stud was Price. There are a bunch of good picks in there and some terrible ones too! Overall I bet it's about average compared to other teams.... and more importantly that there isn't a huge difference between the best and worst teams at drafting (if you consider the amount and quality of picks).

Granted the Kostytsyn pick really smarts... he wasn't bad, but that was such a good draft.

I think the biggest problem is that we never won the lottery in a year with a true stud. Instead we need to try to find an elite player other ways which is very hard. Hopefully we did it with Suzuki... and maybe Caulfield. That would make things look a lot different.

Anyway I do understand your frustration. I'm frustrated to, but my point is that it is not fair to say "look at who he passed over" as a way to criticize.

For example Beaulieu and McCarron may seem like bad picks but if you look at the average players that were available at the time... it not that bad... McCarron is worse but even in his case there aren't any fantastic players picked in the 10 spots after him and 4 of them are not in the NHL anymore.... so was it a bad pick... yes... was it terrible... no. Would we be better if we had Adam Erne... yes... contender... no.

But I do agree it needs to get better and it will. We haven't been bad enough that all the extra picks we've had won't correct it.

1	25	Montreal	Michael McCarron	R	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	81	2	6	8	142	2020-21
1	26	Anaheim	Shea Theodore	D	Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]	370	52	161	213	117	2020-21
1	27	Columbus	Marko Dano	C	Bratislava Slovan [KHL]	141	19	26	45	49	2019-20
1	28	Calgary	Morgan Klimchuk	L	Regina Pats [WHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2017-18
1	29	Dallas	Jason Dickinson	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]	272	32	46	78	82	2020-21
1	30	Chicago	Ryan Hartman	R	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	416	65	88	153	353	2020-21
Round 2
Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
2	31	Florida	Ian McCoshen	D	Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]	60	4	3	7	33	2018-19
2	32	Colorado	Chris Bigras	D	Owen Sound Attack [OHL]	46	1	3	4	18	2017-18
2	33	Tampa Bay	Adam Erne	L	Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]	260	37	35	72	142	2020-21
2	34	Montreal	Jacob De La Rose	C	Leksands IF [Swe-1]	255	13	26	39	91	2020-21
2	35	Buffalo	JT Compher	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	319	63	64	127	111	2020-21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The problem with that group is that the only true stud was Price.

PK Subban was an absolute stud. HOF trajectory before tanking recently. It doesn't get better than that.

Max and Gallagher are both legit first line wingers. McD I think qualifies as a stud as well. Those are all great players. It really doesn't matter if you get them in the 1st or 3rd round. Bottom line is that if we were to do it over, taking Subban in the first would've hurt us because we would've missed out on one of the other two.

Then we get into development/injury questions about guys like LL, Latendresse (who actually has some fantastic numbers) and Galchenyuk.

TT's real problem is the gap from when MT/MB took over until now. It's been a major dry spell over that period. There's Sergachev and not much else. Too soon on KK and CC right now.

Sidenote: I was rough on Latendresse when he was here. Always wanted him to be something he was never going to be. In retrospect, injuries got in the way of what should've been a really good career.

 

[Whitesnake]

The problem with that group is that the only true stud was Price. There are a bunch of good picks in there and some terrible ones too! Overall I bet it's about average compared to other teams.... and more importantly that there isn't a huge difference between the best and worst teams at drafting (if you consider the amount and quality of picks).

Granted the Kostytsyn pick really smarts... he wasn't bad, but that was such a good draft.

I think the biggest problem is that we never won the lottery in a year with a true stud. Instead we need to try to find an elite player other ways which is very hard. Hopefully we did it with Suzuki... and maybe Caulfield. That would make things look a lot different.

Anyway I do understand your frustration. I'm frustrated to, but my point is that it is not fair to say "look at who he passed over" as a way to criticize.

For example Beaulieu and McCarron may seem like bad picks but if you look at the average players that were available at the time... it not that bad... McCarron is worse but even in his case there aren't any fantastic players picked in the 10 spots after him and 4 of them are not in the NHL anymore.... so was it a bad pick... yes... was it terrible... no. Would we be better if we had Adam Erne... yes... contender... no.

But I do agree it needs to get better and it will. We haven't been bad enough that all the extra picks we've had won't correct it.

1	25	Montreal	Michael McCarron	R	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	81	2	6	8	142	2020-21
1	26	Anaheim	Shea Theodore	D	Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]	370	52	161	213	117	2020-21
1	27	Columbus	Marko Dano	C	Bratislava Slovan [KHL]	141	19	26	45	49	2019-20
1	28	Calgary	Morgan Klimchuk	L	Regina Pats [WHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2017-18
1	29	Dallas	Jason Dickinson	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]	272	32	46	78	82	2020-21
1	30	Chicago	Ryan Hartman	R	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	416	65	88	153	353	2020-21
Round 2
Round	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
2	31	Florida	Ian McCoshen	D	Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]	60	4	3	7	33	2018-19
2	32	Colorado	Chris Bigras	D	Owen Sound Attack [OHL]	46	1	3	4	18	2017-18
2	33	Tampa Bay	Adam Erne	L	Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]	260	37	35	72	142	2020-21
2	34	Montreal	Jacob De La Rose	C	Leksands IF [Swe-1]	255	13	26	39	91	2020-21
2	35	Buffalo	JT Compher	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	319	63	64	127	111	2020-21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Why are 10 spots picked after a reference? Anybody knows that on most drafts you could interchange pick 25 5to 50 depending of any scouting group. For example. while you list 25 to 35 in order, CSS had those players at those ranks:

35 / 11 / 12EURO / 25 / 30 / 16 / 24 / 14 / 26 / 7Euro /34

So if the CSS in its entirety is our scouting group and they go BPA, our pick is Theodore. Then Bigras, Then Hartman etc. BUt they had Shinkaruk at 6. He went 24. They had Zykov at 7 he went 37......EAch scouting group has their own analysis. Some are looking for needs, stupidly, others aren't. And some just have different vievs on players based on where they saw them or other reasons.

All those let's watch who went 25th in all those years to compare it to a 25th pick in a certain year, or let's watch who went just before and after is just an irrelevant exercice. Also for another reason....no matter who went from 25 to 35, let take Pesce for example for Carolina. Who went 66. Yep, he went quite far....but then it was Carolina's 2nd pick that draft. Who knows if Pesce wasn't in their top 10 picks?

 

[26Mats]

So between him and Jack Smith, we got a guy who can play but can't skate, and a guy who can skate but can't play.

Add Farrell to the list of 4th rounders and it's looking like a great 4th round so far. But Farrell has to make the NHL for that to be so.

If Guhle and Farrell make top 4/top 9, it's a good draft.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

Add Farrell to the list of 4th rounders and it's looking like a great 4th round so far. But Farrell has to make the NHL for that to be so.

If Guhle and Farrell make top 4/top 9, it's a good draft.

In Farrell's case I can't wait to see him just in the NCAA, this will be a better test.

Was mostly sarcastic about Biondi and Smith, I'm hopeful as always concerning our prospects, but with due respect, I just don't share your optimism. (love Guhle as a pick though)

 

[26Mats]

In Farrell's case I can't wait to see him just in the NCAA, this will be a better test.

Was mostly sarcastic about Biondi and Smith, I'm hopeful as always concerning our prospects, but with due respect, I just don't share your optimism. (love Guhle as a pick though)

We only need one of Mysak, Tuch, or Farrell to make it. None is a sure thing. All have a certain potential. I look forward to seeing Mysak in the OHL next year. I'm no longer following Biondi and Smith.

 

[Jesker]

We only need one of Mysak, Tuch, or Farrell to make it. None is a sure thing. All have a certain potential. I look forward to seeing Mysak in the OHL next year. I'm no longer following Biondi and Smith.

I don't like that saying though, I know what you mean, but capitalizing on every pick is very important. I love the Farrell pick but it doesn't excuse Timmins for the two previous... Just imagine if you get good value on most of them, it gives your organization an incredible edge.

Carolina and San Jose had awesome drafts in the last years where at almost every pick I was just impressed with their selections. No fillers no waste. Wonder why the Habs feel like they can make weird ones.

 

[26Mats]

I don't like that saying though, I know what you mean, but capitalizing on every pick is very important. I love the Farrell pick but it doesn't excuse Timmins for the two previous... Just imagine if you get good value on most of them, it gives your organization an incredible edge.

Carolina and San Jose had awesome drafts in the last years where at almost every pick I was just impressed with their selections. No fillers no waste. Wonder why the Habs feel like they can make weird ones.

I heard Macguire in the radio in the days and months leading up to the draft saying there will be a ton of good u.s. high school players available innthe 4th and 5th rounds.

Not sure where he got his information from - he claimed it was his own viewing. But these Timmins picks appear to be innline with the common perspective of the scouting community going into the draft.

 

[Whitesnake]

We only need one of Mysak, Tuch, or Farrell to make it. None is a sure thing. All have a certain potential. I look forward to seeing Mysak in the OHL next year. I'm no longer following Biondi and Smith.

What does that mean? Why only one? We have to expect Mysak and Tuch to make it. Because we need more depth up front. And because both bring totally different things.

 

[26Mats]

What does that mean? Why only one? We have to expect Mysak and Tuch to make it. Because we need more depth up front. And because both bring totally different things.

Very rare for drafts to yield 1 top 9 forward and 1 top 4 Dman. I'll be happy with 1 top 9 forward and 1 top 4 dman.

 

[Whitesnake]

Very rare for drafts to yield 1 top 9 forward and 1 top 4 Dman. I'll be happy with 1 top 9 forward and 1 top 4 dman.

Based on the fact that each team usually has 1 pick per round. Or when they have more picks, it's from the 3rd and up where you find less and less players.

 

[le_sean]

I heard Macguire in the radio in the days and months leading up to the draft saying there will be a ton of good u.s. high school players available innthe 4th and 5th rounds.

Not sure where he got his information from - he claimed it was his own viewing. But these Timmins picks appear to be innline with the common perspective of the scouting community going into the draft.

Who is a good NHL player these days that was a 4th or 5th round US High School pick? It’s chasing a unicorn.