Timmins record when drafting in the late first round is bad and should have him fired. This is a prime method to gain assets for mediocre/playoffs teams. I took the time to update an old post from an analysis I did previously.
Since he took over in 2003 and until 2015 draft, I counted an average of 4.385 players on the last 15 spots of each year draft (which mean an average of 0.292 by spot) that became a "significant" player for an NHL team. What I mean by a "significant" player is either a good goalie, a top 3 Defenseman or a top 6 forward with some consistency, well a guy that is an asset and has some value for a good chunk of his career. I did not count after 2015, because IMO it's still too early to tell. Also, I considered that spots 16 to 30 are late first round. I know this discount Cole Caufield, but that also discount lots of sucessfull NHL player and we need to draw a line somewhere.
Between 2003 to 2017, Habs had a chance of taking 11 players as late first rounder. let's look at them:
2004 - Kyle Chipchura : 4th line center, so no;
2006 - David Fisher : bust, so no;
2007 - Max Pacioretty : YES;
2009 - Louis Leblanc : bust, so no;
2010 - Jarred Tinordi : bust, so no;
2011 - Nathan Beaulieu : bust, so no;
2013 - Michael McCarron : bust, so no;
2014 - Nikita Scherbak : bust, so no;
2015 - Noah Juulsen : bust/injuries, so no
2017 – Ryan Poehling : too early to tell;
2020 – Kaiden Guhle : too early to tell;
So as of right now, there's only 1 player out of 11 and if it doesn't get better this is not simply mediocre, but really below average (the average would be 0.292 x 11 = 3.212 players).
Yes Timmins did some good picks and some late round steals, but his record in the late first round is killing the Habs depth and bargaining power.
Here's what I considered:
2003 : Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry = 6
2004 : Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Andrej Meszaros, Cory Schneider, Mike Green = 5
2005 : Martin Hanzal, Tuukka Rask, T.J. Oshie, Andrew Cogliano, Matt Niskanen, Steve Downie = 6
2006 : Chris Stewart, Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Berglund, Nick Foligno = 5
2007 : Max Pacioretty, Mikael Backlund, David Perron = 3
2008 : Jake Gardiner, Jordan Eberle, John Carlson, Tyler Ennis, Del Zotto = 5
2009 : Nick Leddy, Chris Kreider, Marcus Johansson, Kyle Palmieri = 4
2010 : Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Bjugstad, Kevin Hayes, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Charlie Coyle, Brock Nelson = 6
2011 : Oscar Klefbom, Rickard Rakell, Phillip Danault, Vladimir Namestnikov = 4
2012 : Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Olli Maatta, Brady Skjei, Tanner Pearson = 6
2013 : Anotny Mantha, Andre Burakovsky, Shea Theodore = 3
2014 : Travis Sanheim, Alex Tuch, Tony DeAngelo (I know, I know), David Pastrnak, Nick Schmaltz, Kasperi Kapanen, Jared McCann, Adrian Kempe, Robby Fabbri = 9
2015 : Matthew Barzal, Kyle Connor, Thomas Chabot, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny, Anthony Beauvillier, Joel Eriksson Ek = 7
6+5+6+5+3+3+4+6+4+6+3+9+7 = 57 "significant" players
57 players / 13 drafts = 4.385
4.385 / 15 spots = 0.292 chance of drafting a "significant" player with a late first round draft pick on average.
Some bordeline guys like Namestnikov could be discussed. Of course, we will need to still wait with the 2016 draft and beyond as it is still early. Also, some 2014-2015 guys might fall, I project theses players to stay good.
Right now, the Habs are confirmed IMO at 1/9 = 0.111, this mean that the Habs are bad and let’s hope they get to league average with Poehling and Guhle at 3/11 = 0.273.
I know this is far from a perfect statistical analysis, but low first round is where the Habs draft the most often and should be a prime method to gain assets.
