Speculation: Trading Down in the Draft

[eddieO]

Lets hope the Leafs 2015 draft is as exciting as the movie Draft Day. Maybe they could bring in Costner as GM for a day.

If I learned anything from that movie, its that they better find out if any of McDavids teammates were at his latest birthday party.

Haha, I saw that too. If nobody showed up at McDavid's birthday party I say we trade him for three firsts.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I am sceptical about the Leaf's new "Analytics Department" and how they may over analyze things. The "human element" combined with "Murphy's Law" can sometimes be more powerful than just numbers. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation will know that when a company spends tons of money and man power analyzing things, quite often it just screws up and doesn't work the way it did on paper.
I hope the scouts, GM and Shanahan look at things in a practical sense and make smart descisions as to what they need and build a team with "character" players who bring it every game.

Chicago, San Jose, St Louis and LA have all used analytics and traditional means to aid their drafting [and i'm sure by this point most if not all organizations do as well]. i'm sure it is just another tool.

 

[eddieO]

Chicago, San Jose, St Louis and LA have all used analytics and traditional means to aid their drafting [and i'm sure by this point most if not all organizations do as well]. i'm sure it is just another tool.

Yeah and at least in LA, it was only until Dean arrived that things changed. I believe only Doughty was a top ten pick, every other key piece was drafted 11th or later. That's pretty impressive.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

If we finish in the 4-5 spot that we likely do, you absolutely do not turn down the chance at Marner or Strome. There's a dropoff after them. I know some will disagree but that's my opinion. We've been waiting for a number one center since Sundin left/began his decline, how in the world could we pass that up? I know we see Nylander as a potential center but he's no guarantee to stick at center.

 

[pucci2001]

Honestly, if we finish out of the top 4 and we aren't able to move up to get into the top 4 I would consider trading down if that meant getting a first inside the 10th pick and a first in 2016 as well. There are a bunch of names outside of the top 4 that will be available between 7-11 or 12 that will be fine players and if we can get one of those AND a first from a non playoff team next year I would really consider it. I also would consider people moving past first round pick prospects that are real prospects. Maybe I am just not as in love with Marner as everyone else but I would be just as happy with one of the centers a few picks later. Marner is a product of the Domi effect, he is really good but his size might become an issue(even if he becomes Johnny Gaudreau that isn't the type of player I am after). Unless he turns into Pat Kane v2 with no taxi issues I don't want him and I am not certain that is what will happen. Zacha, Prov, Barzal are all tempting names as well as Werenski.

I think I try to get into the top 4 by any means and if that isn't possible I would consider moving down and ripping off a team that is absolutely infatuated with Marner. Using our first+JVR or Gardiner to move up from 5th or 6th to take Strome/Hannifin would be worth it for me if we could get a 2nd rounder in return since we are missing a pick that round as well. A team like CBJ/Carolina would probably make that deal too.

 

[pucci2001]

If we finish in the 4-5 spot that we likely do, you absolutely do not turn down the chance at Marner or Strome. There's a dropoff after them. I know some will disagree but that's my opinion. We've been waiting for a number one center since Sundin left/began his decline, how in the world could we pass that up? I know we see Nylander as a potential center but he's no guarantee to stick at center.

There is no guarantee Marner plays C either.

Edit: Apparently Marner has been growing but I don't think he is really 5'11" like people are saying. If he actually can get to that size and fill in more I will eat my words and wish we took him but his skill is undoubted but size is the question for me. Having small Marner+Nylander+Kadri doesn't bode for a very overwhelming top 6, especially with soft JVR and Kessel if they stick around. We would have one insane powerplay but our forechecking would be pretty terrible, like it is now.

Upon giving it a bit more thought if we took Marner that would mean that Mark Hunter believes in him and he knows him better than anyone so I wouldn't be upset but if he isn't sold we should max out our benefit from the hype surrounding him.

 

[MajorLeaf]

If this draft becomes deep like the 2003 draft then acquiring more picks would not be a bad decision. In that deep draft there are multiple all-stars, Stanley cup winners in the late first rounds, second rounds and even later.

When you can get someone like Corey Perry at 28th overall that could potentially be the Leafs pick from Nashville this year. Keep the picks and do not use them to trade into the top three unless you can get McDavid.

Dropping down in the top 10 would not be too bad if you can still get another first rounder in the same draft. In 2003, in the 7 to 10 overall ranges you get:

7 - Ryan Suter
8 - Braydon Coburn
9 - Dion Phaneuf
10 - Andrei Kostitsyn or 11 - Jeff Carter

If the Leafs trade with Philadelphia currently in 9th overall and pick up the 26th overall (Tampa Bay's pick) then the Leafs could have picks in 9, 26, and 28-30 overall.

So in 2003 if the Leafs were picking they would give up Tomas Vanek (5th overall) or Milan Michalek (6th overall) and instead would pick up Dion Phaneuf (9th overall) and Brian Boyle (26th overall). The 28th overall pick was Corey Perry, so there could be a chance the Leafs draft a Phaneuf type player 9th overall and Brian Boyle with Perry being used for the Nashville pick at 28/29 overall.

Of course that would be the best-case scenario for trading out of 5/6 for 9/26 overall picks. The draft is a risk, but if the scouts are doing a great job it could be possible to get the more players that can help the team out.

Detroit has been doing this for years trading their late first for more second/third round picks with some success, so the Leafs could consider following this model. It's a tough decision for sure.

 

[Teeder9]

No interest in moving out of the prime prospect range just to pick up a late 1st rounder. If Kessel or Phaneuf can't get one, oh well

 

[Sonic Disturbance]

No. I would rather move the NSH 1st a few spots to draft Travis Konency.

 

[achtungbaby]

It's not about overthinking, it's about doing something smart and beneficial for the future. Picking up two extra early-mid picks in a deep draft is a no-brainer if you don't think there is a difference in talent level between 6 - 10. I'm not sure why management wouldn't do this if they have this opinion?

We've already gotten into plenty of trouble trying to believe that we're smarter then the average bear. Biggs is one example. Let's just use all the ammo we can to draft and develop a few years and see where that gets us. It's the only thing we haven't tried in decades.

 

[slozo]

Iam certain that Hunter knows best.
Will put my trust in his judgement...goodness knows he has all the insider knowledge needed to make the right moves.

All else is feeling around in the dark,

 

[Maplebeasts]

Better Question:

Do we move NSH 1st + 6 OA for 5 OA?

This is almost as bad as the OP's suggestion. There's plenty of hole filling talent for us at 6. Barzal anyone?

 

[Maplebeasts]

Last years wasn't, 2013 was pretty deep though, and 2025 has been hyped for a couple years now, I think it is the deepest draft in quite a while. Next year will not be as deep

Wrong. 2013 was deep and had some big time talent. 2014 was perceived to not have the top end of stronger drafts, but higher than average depth. In fact the assertion that 2014 had little elite talent is being proven as BS right now by the draftees. (Reinhart, Ekblad, Ehlers, Nylander, MDC, Larkin all look awesome in their draft +1 year.)

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Last years wasn't, 2013 was pretty deep though, and 2025 has been hyped for a couple years now, I think it is the deepest draft in quite a while. Next year will not be as deep

I heard they were scouting younger and younger but I didn't realize they were sending scouts to timbits

 

[Trainspotter]

We've already gotten into plenty of trouble trying to believe that we're smarter then the average bear. Biggs is one example.

No he isn't. He was picked later than he was ranked on average. So it was pretty much being as smart as the average bear in a nutshell.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It depends on the return but probably not. I'd drop down with the late 1st round pick we have though.

nope not even that one

 

[Maple Leaf]

Leafs traded up for Luke Schenn. He was a sure thing. lol

 

[Mess]

No. I would rather move the NSH 1st a few spots to draft Travis Konency.

Trading up from the Nashville pick would be easier and more likely than Leafs moving up or down from their own 1st. IMO

 

[Bullseye]

Yes - depending on who is left on the table and who behind us desperate to move up - and how desperate.

So many good choices this year that are so close - trading down may be a great idea if someone approaches at the draft table with an awesome deal.

For instance: If the Devils really want our pick for their pick plus a 2nd - that's an awesome deal - I would do it in a second.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

I'd consider it, if the leafs can get another first in this draft.

 

[Porn*]

No. BPA unless the offer is insane.

 

[HockeyAndWings]

Leafs traded up for Luke Schenn. He was a sure thing. lol

Leafs should only trade up if they are really high on someone, otherwise it may be better to just stay put.

 

[BlueBaron]

Leafs should only trade up if they are really high on someone, otherwise it may be better to just stay put.

At 5/6 we can still get a potential number one C. Strome appears to be rising though and may be gone at 4 .

I don't want to risk missing our first real chance at a center.

 

[-DeMo-]

If we finish in the 4-5 spot that we likely do, you absolutely do not turn down the chance at Marner or Strome. There's a dropoff after them. I know some will disagree but that's my opinion. We've been waiting for a number one center since Sundin left/began his decline, how in the world could we pass that up? I know we see Nylander as a potential center but he's no guarantee to stick at center.

that really depends on your stance with the prospects, imo Marner/Strome/Barzal/Zacha/Crouse/Ratenan(sp? only guy I haven't seen but a lot put him in this group)/Provorov/Werenski to me are all but interchangeable there might be a tiny gap in there somewhere, but to me each of these prospects are on the same tier so if you could trade down say from 4 to 6 or 7 and still get the same quality of prospect with a different name, why wouldn't you? in all likely hood there would still be atleast 1 Center/Wing/Defensemen to choose from so you could still pick based on positional want.

 

[Stats01]

I just hate the idea of trading assets to move up a couple of spots without having any idea if the player you take is even going to be better than the spot you're trading up from...Keep all the picks and just select players. Nothing hard about that and it's less risky. Why would we trade up 4-5 spots from Nashville's spot giving up multiple picks when it's possible the 30th pick could become a better player than the 25th-26th. There's no real benefit.