Speculation: Trading Down in the Draft

[DesertHombre]

I am sceptical about the Leaf's new "Analytics Department" and how they may over analyze things. The "human element" combined with "Murphy's Law" can sometimes be more powerful than just numbers. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation will know that when a company spends tons of money and man power analyzing things, quite often it just screws up and doesn't work the way it did on paper.
I hope the scouts, GM and Shanahan look at things in a practical sense and make smart descisions as to what they need and build a team with "character" players who bring it every game.

 

[Stephen]

If you want a pick in the teens we could trade UP from Nashville's spot. That's way more preferable.

 

[So Truculent]

I expect us to be obtaining some firsts with a trade or 2...get some mid rounders

 

[TribalPhoenix]

I'd wait and see how things turn out.

Just to remind everyone : Seth Jones fell to 4th Overall.

I REPEAT : SETH JONES FELL TO 4TH.

You may resume your normal activities.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'd wait and see how things turn out.

Just to remind everyone : Seth Jones fell to 4th Overall.

I REPEAT : SETH JONES FELL TO 4TH.

You may resume your normal activities.

I think he is the exception because how many people had the Panthers taking Aleksander Barkov 2nd overall, when they knew Tampa Bay would select Jonathan Drouin 3rd overall.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

If we're in the top 5 no way. If we're in 6th I'd try to either move up and pick Strome or move down to 11th or 12th.

 

[Jack Bauer]

no thanks

just to watch Prov get picked at 7 or 8 HA! forget it

Or....not.

Pointless to get into the numerous situations and examples that could be realistic and feasible with such small minded people involved in the discussion.

Even with hindsight a certain % of hfboard posters can't possibly understand how the 9th pick in a draft or 10th pick...just might....be better then the 6th or 7th pick...we see teams trading up and down based on need and desire constantly.

1 hypothetical scenario is responded to as a close minded 'this is what WILL happen' scenario.

Par for the course around here.

 

[Drew311]

I am sceptical about the Leaf's new "Analytics Department" and how they may over analyze things. The "human element" combined with "Murphy's Law" can sometimes be more powerful than just numbers. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation will know that when a company spends tons of money and man power analyzing things, quite often it just screws up and doesn't work the way it did on paper.
I hope the scouts, GM and Shanahan look at things in a practical sense and make smart descisions as to what they need and build a team with "character" players who bring it every game.

Even the head of the analytics department said that you can't simply rely on advanced stats to judge a player, so I don't think your concern is warranted. Considering how nutless the current Leafs players are I think character and work ethic, combined with skill will be the recipe management will be looking for in the draft.

 

[burpsalot]

Possibly, but it would be a draft time decision, hit the timer. 6th pick coming up & everyone has so & so ranked 6th but you want to pick the 8th ranked guy & you're not thrilled with the 6th. Maybe, but you still want to get your man? If you feel players are interchangeable at that point than moving back a few spots could potentially give you a far greater benefit. Other than that no.

I don't like moving up either, unless we are talking 30th to top 6, but then the price would be too steep. Do we move NSH 1st + 6 OA for 5 OA? Not me, other than the bonafide future superstars everything is an educated crap shoot & I would rather have more dice then less.

Sometimes the bonafide superstar doesn't pan out either.

 

[Faltorvo]

Or....not.

Pointless to get into the numerous situations and examples that could be realistic and feasible with such small minded people involved in the discussion.

Even with hindsight a certain % of hfboard posters can't possibly understand how the 9th pick in a draft or 10th pick...just might....be better then the 6th or 7th pick...we see teams trading up and down based on need and desire constantly.

1 hypothetical scenario is responded to as a close minded 'this is what WILL happen' scenario.

Par for the course around here.

ah yes those small minded people that would rather not see them play games and gamble in this draft

i have seen the examples of your large minded at work.

it reassures me that small minded is the wiser and safer avenue

 

[nuck]

It makes almost no sense unless your scouts rate a group of players identically. If you think you have a shot at picking the best player available, then you are risking donating him to another club in return for an additional lesser asset. If there are prospect tiers and the top one ends with #5 and you are selecting at #6 then perhaps, but only if 6-7-8 are apparently a wash as they are all BPA to you #6. Ask the same question here at seasons end when we are looking at a final draft position to attach to actual names.

 

[burpsalot]

I am sceptical about the Leaf's new "Analytics Department" and how they may over analyze things. The "human element" combined with "Murphy's Law" can sometimes be more powerful than just numbers. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation will know that when a company spends tons of money and man power analyzing things, quite often it just screws up and doesn't work the way it did on paper.
I hope the scouts, GM and Shanahan look at things in a practical sense and make smart descisions as to what they need and build a team with "character" players who bring it every game.

Be still my beating heart. Character!!!

 

[Faltorvo]

It makes almost no sense unless your scouts rate a group of players identically. If you think you have a shot at picking the best player available, then you are risking donating him to another club in return for an additional lesser asset. If there are prospect tiers and the top one ends with #5 and you are selecting at #6 then perhaps, but only if 6-7-8 are apparently a wash as they are all BPA to you #6. Ask the same question here at seasons end when we are looking at a final draft position to attach to actual names.

if there is a grouping of equal talent in the scouts eyes

one advantage of going first in that pack is

one can then chose by positional want, need.

Size/style of play, rhs,lhs ,heart, IQ all those options remain for the organisation that picks at the head of that pack.


There is inherent value in having first pick of a like level group of say 4/5 players.

 

[TribalPhoenix]

I think he is the exception because how many people had the Panthers taking Aleksander Barkov 2nd overall, when they knew Tampa Bay would select Jonathan Drouin 3rd overall.

Fully agree, but proof that exceptions do happen on the draft floor.... and to my original point, no deal is beyond waiting to see how the draft order pans out.

When the year started, Oliver Kylington was considered top 5. Now? Top 15. Is it because he's slipped? No, it's because North American rankings are always more volatile.

In my mind, that's why Barkov went at 3

 

[mohare]

Lets hope the Leafs 2015 draft is as exciting as the movie Draft Day. Maybe they could bring in Costner as GM for a day.

If I learned anything from that movie, its that they better find out if any of McDavids teammates were at his latest birthday party.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The only way I'd be willing to trade down is if we trade negative spots downward.

Or maybe we could trade down from say 5th to something like 20th if the other team compensates us with 4th overall

 

[Menzinger]

I'm totally against trading down - the leafs need the hugest quality prospect in the draft, and I do feel there is a noticeabl hierarchy in the top ten.

Conversely, I'm not a particular fan of trading up either. The leafs also need quantity as well as quality.

 

[ZINFINITY16]

Provorov, Werenski, Barzal will probaly go 6,7,8 but maybe a team takes a chance with Crouse, Rantanen or Zacha! So if we are picking 6th I would offer 6th for 8th plus 38th let's say cause we still get one of those three great players who I feel are all equal. Plus we get another very good player at 38th!

That's only if we are picking 6th. Not a chance at 5 or moving down to 9th/10th in my opinion

 

[Larcos_Unal]

NO to trading down.

YA KNOW, JUST TAKE A GOOD ONTARIO BOY OR ELSE GRAPES IS GONNA GET ALL MAD EH!

 

[Lisa Needs Braces]

If we have 6 and 25 and Carolina has 8/9 and 17-20 do you make that trade?

This one I would do if Strome and Marner are gone.

If we could get Zacha at #8 along with an additional player in the teens (Lawson Crouse in my dreams, Travis Konecney is more likely), that would give us a solid start to the re-build.

I've been following the leafs and their drafting since 2002. We're really good at pulling defensemen out of drafts in the later rounds. If we could make a trade to get 3 forwards with top 6 potential in 2015 1st round, we would be solid.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I am only concentrating on winning the lottery. I suggest everyone believe it will happen and stop all this trading down nonsense.

 

[Brown Dog]

Last years wasn't, 2013 was pretty deep though, and 2025 has been hyped for a couple years now, I think it is the deepest draft in quite a while. Next year will not be as deep

Yeah, but those 8-year-olds are tough to project.

 

[HellasLEAF]

I would definitely trade down for the right price.

A draft this deep, this is the time to pick up more assets.

 

[Donald McRonald]

Lets hope the Leafs 2015 draft is as exciting as the movie Draft Day. Maybe they could bring in Costner as GM for a day.

If I learned anything from that movie, its that they better find out if any of McDavids teammates were at his latest birthday party.

Indeed, I believe he dealt all his second round picks as well, would fit right in.

 

[Teeder9]

I am sceptical about the Leaf's new "Analytics Department" and how they may over analyze things. The "human element" combined with "Murphy's Law" can sometimes be more powerful than just numbers. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation will know that when a company spends tons of money and man power analyzing things, quite often it just screws up and doesn't work the way it did on paper.
I hope the scouts, GM and Shanahan look at things in a practical sense and make smart descisions as to what they need and build a team with "character" players who bring it every game.

I think you worry too much. The analytics come into play after everything else has been sorted, not before