Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part 4

[Hale The Villain]

I'm skeptical Brady's offense will improve much beyond the 40-50P he's putting up now. He has average to below-average skill and shooting ability. Good vision and decent passing ability, but I'm expecting a 50-60P guy in his prime. Maybe with scoring being up that means producing in the 60-70P range in his best years, but I doubt he breaks out offensively like his brother. Just not the same quality of talent.

Based on that I wouldn't be too quick to lock him up at big money like Chabot, who was picked later in the draft but shows flashes of superstar potential.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Landeskog put up his points in his 3rd season, whereas Brady is looking at 45ish points in his 2nd. If Landeskog put up another ~45-50 point season that 3rd year, he gets a lower AAV.

As I said, Tkachuk doesn't have the numbers right now and will need at least 60 points (at the absolute minimum next) year to ask for 8 million. Chabot signed after his 2nd year because he had the numbers to get that kind of deal (55 points in 70 games as a D). If the Sens thin Tkachuk will break the bank that 3rd year, they should sign him long term, but he in no way could garner the type of contract Chabot received after 2 seasons with point in the 40's (should he remain there)

If Brady put up points in the 60's this season, he likely could ask for 7ish million over a long term deal. Right now, he doesn't have much on his side (still only his 2nd year, he could and likely will bet on himself to produce more next year) to ask for that kind of money. Just from a numbers perspective, he is producing like an average 2nd liner thus far, he needs to have at least a season where he produces like a 1st line guy to be paid like one.

I have no doubt the Sens will pay him more than he's "earned"(He's a great player, and will be a great player for a long time for us) but production is what gets forwards big contracts, and he has yet to produce like a 1st liner. He doesn't deserve that kind of contract yet, and until he produces 60+ points he won't be.

I don’t necessarily disagree in principle, but I think all parties are aware that this team lacks skill, which affects the numbers of our kids.

Chabot is no where near putting up the same numbers now that we traded away our top vet stars.

The current numbers don’t really tell the whole story on a long term deal. It would be a fair argument to make that BT, and Chabot for that matter, will see their numbers go up as the team adds more skill, and the kids continue to develop.

BT won’t be offered a long term deal for a 40 point player, we all know that. It will be interesting to see where that number lies. 2 consecutive 20 goal campaigns to start his NHL career, and top of the league stats for front of the net presence will he strong negotiating points.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I'm skeptical Brady's offense will improve much beyond the 40-50P he's putting up now. He has average to below-average skill and shooting ability. Good vision and decent passing ability, but I'm expecting a 50-60P guy in his prime. Maybe with scoring being up that means producing in the 60-70P range in his best years, but I doubt he breaks out offensively like his brother. Just not the same quality of talent.

Based on that I wouldn't be too quick to lock him up at big money like Chabot, who was picked later in the draft but shows flashes of superstar potential.

Really? He’s one of the few good players on a terrible team, and you don’t think he’ll put up better numbers with better players?

I mean we just witnessed what effect trading away our best players had in Chabots production.

Anyways, to each their own I suppose.

 

[Icelevel]

BT will be a 60-70pt average guy likely.

 

[BondraTime]

I don’t necessarily disagree in principle, but I think all parties are aware that this team lacks skill, which affects the numbers of our kids.

Chabot is no where near putting up the same numbers now that we traded away our top vet stars.

The current numbers don’t really tell the whole story on a long term deal. It would be a fair argument to make that BT, and Chabot for that matter, will see their numbers go up as the team adds more skill, and the kids continue to develop.

BT won’t be offered a long term deal for a 40 point player, we all know that. It will be interesting to see where that number lies. 2 consecutive 20 goal campaigns to start his NHL career, and top of the league stats for front of the net presence will he strong negotiating points.

Even in this down season, Chabot is on pace to score more points than every D the Sens have had since 2000 other than Karlsson and Redden (1 time).

I don't expect much more from Tierny, Ennis, Pageau and Duclaier who are all producing at the same level as Brady with the same supporting cast, I do expect more from Brady and do think he will produce more in the coming years, but I don't see him being a 60 point guy next season (would love to be wrong as I very often am) which is the cutoff for his contract extension.

We don't have to look far to see what Brady is thinking, his brother put up 77 points and got a 3 year 7aav million dollar deal. I'd imagine Brady will be looking at a 3 year deal as well, which would likely come in lower than the 7 million (barring a huge season from Brady).

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

BT will be a 60-70pt average guy likely.

That will likely depend on who he plays with though. I could see him putting up those totals if we got a high end #1C who could create for him, but I don't think Brady is a 60-70 point wing as the primary guy driving the line. Guys like Brady who play best away from the puck usually aren't huge in the production department.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

That will likely depend on who he plays with though. I could see him putting up those totals if we got a high end #1C who could create for him, but I don't think Brady is a 60-70 point wing as the primary guy driving the line. Guys like Brady who play best away from the puck usually aren't huge in the production department.

He definitely is a 60 point guy regardless of who he plays with imo. Was on easy pace to eclipse 50 points and 25 goals in his rookie year and might flirt with 30 goals and 50+ points in his sophomore year as a 20 year old.

He is not a line driver or a complementary player, he fits in the mold of "dominant power forward" where he'll be productive regardless, and scores a bit more with more elite talent.

I.E. 60 points regularly and 70+ with elite talent.

 

[MatchesMalone]

From what I understand analytics are really starting to creep into salary negotiations. That spells big time payday for Brady Tkachuk.

 

[BondraTime]

He definitely is a 60 point guy regardless of who he plays with imo. Was on easy pace to eclipse 50 points and 25 goals in his rookie year and might flirt with 30 goals and 50+ points in his sophomore year as a 20 year old.

He is not a line driver or a complementary player, he fits in the mold of "dominant power forward" where he'll be productive regardless, and scores a bit more with more elite talent.

I.E. 60 points regularly and 70+ with elite talent.

He needs a guy to drive his line where he can play his game, he is not a guy to carry the play or create from the neutral zone into the offensive zone. That's what Stone did last year, and that's what he's lacking this year. He has so few assists because outside of creating in front of the net and jamming stuff towards for reboounds, he isn't creating or generating chances in the high slot or off rushes.

He is at his best coming off the boards and behind/in front of the net, he needs someone to generate chances and create lanes and shots and look from other areas, because right now we have nobody/very few able to do this consistently, including Tkachuk.

When we get the puck below the hashmarks, he's great and creating chances, outside of that area, he isn;t doing much of anything, He needs a guy able to create and carry the puck in those areas, so we don't need to rely on him to.

 

[JungleBeat]

Landeskog signed after his 2nd season. So that was 1.5 seasons of averaging just below 50 points. He also signed for 7 years.

An 8 year extension will buy up 4 UFA years + a few arbitration years.

The way I see it, he is getting around 6M on a bridge. Meier, after peaking with one 66 point season got 6 x 4 with a huge 10M QO on the fifth year.

So my logic is, I'd go 8 x 8 knowing we probably are overpaying 2M per season on the 4 RFA years, but with how coveted Brady's play style will be as a UFA and where the cap is going, we will more than get it back on the second half when 8M will be underpaid.

Not to mention that cap/salary now should be worth less to the Sens than cap/salary a few years from now. We have an abundance of cap right now and it doesn't roll over season to season. Better to overpay key guys in the short term with that cap to get them cost controlled over the long term when the rebuild should be peaking.

Meier and Landeskog have better skills than Brady and betting on them to produce more is not as risky. Brady hasn’t shown enough talent as those two.

 

[JD1]

Chabot got 8 million because he put up 55 points (in 70 games) as a D, showing elite skill, skating and vision in his second season in the league.

Tkachuck is producing in the 40's in points as a forward thus far, and has shown to be one of the best inside the hashmarks, but has not shown much outside that area. He should be nowhere near the same type of contract that Chabot earned. He should be a tier above White if he has a similar year next season in the 5.5-6 area.

Brady would need to bet on himself to get to the 8 million dollar range, and I'm not sure I'd bet on him to put up the numbers needed to safely get that type of contract.

Lamdeskog got 8.86% of the cap hit in 2014 after putting up 65 points. Should Brady put that up next year, 7 million AAV over 8 years makes sense should the cap rise to 83-84 million

I agree with you. And i think Brady will bet on himself putting up much bigger numbers in year 3. I don't see him signingvthis coming summer

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Brady’s been even better this year than he was with Stone. He’s an elite chance and shot generator. His numbers will be much better when we have a true #1 C

 

[JD1]

So much talk about line drivers and Brady. For the most part, centers drive lines. What we need are two centers capable of driving a 1st and 2nd line. Currently we dont have that.

 

[JungleBeat]

So much talk about line drivers and Brady. For the most part, centers drive lines. What we need are two centers capable of driving a 1st and 2nd line. Currently we dont have that.

For $8M you better be able to create offense for yourself and set up linemates.

 

[Agent Zub]

So much talk about line drivers and Brady. For the most part, centers drive lines. What we need are two centers capable of driving a 1st and 2nd line. Currently we dont have that.

Currently we don't have any players who can come close to driving a line.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He needs a guy to drive his line where he can play his game, he is not a guy to carry the play or create from the neutral zone into the offensive zone. That's what Stone did last year, and that's what he's lacking this year. He has so few assists because outside of creating in front of the net and jamming stuff towards for reboounds, he isn't creating or generating chances in the high slot or off rushes.

He is at his best coming off the boards and behind/in front of the net, he needs someone to generate chances and create lanes and shots and look from other areas, because right now we have nobody/very few able to do this consistently, including Tkachuk.

When we get the puck below the hashmarks, he's great and creating chances, outside of that area, he isn;t doing much of anything, He needs a guy able to create and carry the puck in those areas, so we don't need to rely on him to.

All he needs is another guy as good as he is to complement each other’s skills.

Brady can carry the puck just fine, and shoot as well, but that’s not his game. We dint actually have two other players that can play with him right now and form a complete line.

The only complete line we have that is excellent was the JPG, Paul, Brown line.

We don’t have the centre that BT needs right now, but a guy like Norris might be the guy that can bridge the strengths of BT and Duclair to form a line.

In my opinion it’s not an elite centre that we require to play with BT, but a real good player that compliments his game, and he theirs.

mod xourse I’d love an elite player

 

[LeProspector]

Ottawa better use the excess picks and prospects they have to acquire legit NHL talent before/at the draft.

 

[scallionjj11]

Ottawa better use the excess picks and prospects they have to acquire legit NHL talent before/at the draft.

but why?

 

[LeProspector]

but why?

Because at some point in a rebuild you need to use your quantity and turn it into quality.
especially with the ExDraft coming up... teams are going to be dangling good assets out there.

 

[TheNewEra]

Hainsey at 50% for the 3 6th round picks and the 3 7th round picks that toronto has

who says no?

 

[Sweatred]

Hainsey at 50% for the 3 6th round picks and the 3 7th round picks that toronto has

who says no?

Contract overload ...

 

[JD1]

Currently we don't have any players who can come close to driving a line.

I disagree with that. We don't have anyone that can drive a 1st or 2nd line. Tierney or Pageau would both do well driving a 3rd line and we have a few guys that can drive a 4th line. Our problems are guys slotted higher than they should be due to the absence of a 1C and 2C line driver.

 

[R2010]

He needs a guy to drive his line where he can play his game, he is not a guy to carry the play or create from the neutral zone into the offensive zone. That's what Stone did last year, and that's what he's lacking this year. He has so few assists because outside of creating in front of the net and jamming stuff towards for reboounds, he isn't creating or generating chances in the high slot or off rushes.

He is at his best coming off the boards and behind/in front of the net, he needs someone to generate chances and create lanes and shots and look from other areas, because right now we have nobody/very few able to do this consistently, including Tkachuk.

When we get the puck below the hashmarks, he's great and creating chances, outside of that area, he isn;t doing much of anything, He needs a guy able to create and carry the puck in those areas, so we don't need to rely on him to.

I think it's going to work out well for us that his counting numbers are less than expected because his analytics are off the charts. He's one of the league leaders in high danger scoring chances and Micah McCurdy's charts (which I find are one of the few analytic charts I look at) really do paint a picture of an effective chance generator. If he had the same linemates as last year i'd say he'd have had a pretty good year.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Brady plays like his Dad. Give him 20 more lbs , some experience , more strength, more stability.. pretty close to the same player

 

[Sweatred]

Ottawa gave a 21 year old White with 14G playing with MS and MD $4.75 x6. Brady is going to have 40 goals in the league before White has his first point. Meanwhile he is a US kid who is close to the top in the league in shots, hits, and a fan favourite. I think this number is above $7.0/yr with a conservative projection through 2020-21... it’s that or a fight.