Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part 4

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Demelo had one foot out the door of his NHL career not long ago. I can't imagine he won't test FA and get the most he can. Ottawa will have to pay market value if they want him to sign midseason and we all know how our management group feels about players getting paid what they're worth.

He was a 25yr old DMan with like 130 games of experience (half of which were in the previous season) and he got a 2-year, 1-way deal. I dont think its accurate to say he had one foot out the door. I do agree with your general sentiment, though, that he's going to look for security in his next deal.

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[Sens of Anarchy]

Forget it

This post belongs in the Ice-Tray Posting Hall of Fame

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

The Ottawa Senators plan for tackling their financial issues... Home town discounts for everyone or get ****ed!

Take the discount or else we'll release the Bruce on you and your family.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

You're Pierre Dorion. You've just finished some Gabriel pizza and hockey games on your iPad. You have a franchise altering decision to make.

You could either:
1 - Match the Chabot contract for Brady Tkachuk. Gets him signed for 8 years at 8 million with favorable bonus and trade protection structure.
2 - Even with his power forward style and humorous off ice banter, that's too much for a 50 point winger. Let him play out the year like his brother did and negotiate again in the summer of 2021.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Brady should be looking at a White-type contract unless his offense improves significantly.

Chabot is an entirely different tier. Brady deserves nowhere near as much as him on a long-term deal.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Brady should be looking at a White-type contract unless his offense improves significantly.

Chabot is an entirely different tier. Brady deserves nowhere near as much as him on a long-term deal.

This. 100% this. If Brady plays like he's playing now he's a $5M dollar player.

On pace for 46 points and doesn't kill penalties. No way I give that player $8M/year.

He'll likely improve a lot but right now there is no way he should get 8x8.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

This. 100% this. If Brady plays like he's playing now he's a $5M dollar player.

On pace for 46 points and doesn't kill penalties. No way I give that player $8M/year.

He'll likely improve a lot but right now there is no way he should get 8x8.

I would point to Konecny as a comparable, and would be thrilled to get him at that price... he wont be signing that a year before he becomes an FA, though.

 

[Crosside]

8 x 6m

 

[Que]

I would expect Brady to sign a two or three year bridge deal. He’s a throw back type of kid.

Plus, being the size he is, he will need an extra few years of development to reach full potential.

Also, see Kane chattin’ it up with Brady and Duke? Dare to dream lol.

 

[JD1]

If i was Brady...i would be betting on myself in year 3 to have an offensive explosion. Go from being an upper 40s guy to a mid 60s or better guy. I wouldn't be in a rush to sign anything. Bottom line for Brady is it's pretty unlikely that his year 3 decreases his future revenue possibility, more likely that year 3 increases it.

I'll go on record with it now saying it's not in Brady's interest to sign. And we'll spend the next year with guys posting left and right about PD not doing his job

Caveat: if Brady does sign, it'll be long term and team friendly

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If i was Brady...i would be betting on myself in year 3 to have an offensive explosion. Go from being an upper 40s guy to a mid 60s or better guy. I wouldn't be in a rush to sign anything. Bottom line for Brady is it's pretty unlikely that his year 3 decreases his future revenue possibility, more likely that year 3 increases it.

I'll go on record with it now saying it's not in Brady's interest to sign. And we'll spend the next year with guys posting left and right about PD not doing his job

Caveat: if Brady does sign, it'll be long term and team friendly

This is never ever ever going to happen. I'd love to be wrong, but let's be real here.

Go look up who his agent is along with the history of the Tkachuk family and their contract negotiations. In the words of a great player, when it comes time to negotiate, Brady is going to get what he's worth.

I'm just curious about how aggressive fans would want to see the team act in locking him down. I think 8 million is a major overpayment in the short term, but I think the end result of waiting will be that he's not going to cost much less than that but it will be on a much shorter term deal.

I of course would want him locked down at a lower number, but I wouldn't think twice about giving him the Chabot contract if that was the best the Sens could do. The contract will not kick in until 2021-22, that coincides with when the US TV deal expires. There's a very good chance the cap is going to continue to go up with that new TV deal. It will be very advantageous to get our key guys locked up and cost controlled.

Just for some perspective, Landeskog received a contract that under next year's possible 83+ million dollar cap would be north of 7 million for 7 years. That was after producing similarly to Tkachuk in only 1.5 seasons (12-13 shortened). Both have certain on ice traits and off ice intangibles that boost their value when it comes to AAV, so I think they make a decent comparison.

I wouldn't consider 8 x 8 a good contract at all, but I don't think it's a bad one, and I think it's better than the alternative which will be bridging Tkachuk at an AAV not all that much lower and risking that cap inflation and the lack of power forwards who ever get anywhere close to UFA puts Tkachuk in a spot where 8 million would have been a bargain.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I would expect Brady to sign a two or three year bridge deal. He’s a throw back type of kid.

Plus, being the size he is, he will need an extra few years of development to reach full potential.

Also, see Kane chattin’ it up with Brady and Duke? Dare to dream lol.

I don't think he will sign a bridge because he's a throw back. He will sign a bridge because he has smart people advising him who understand that this is a business. Star players always get more by waiting because when a player locks himself in long term, he's locking himself into being paid in future years based on where the HRR was the year that he signed. With the cap almost always going up, that's a bad move to make for a player who has some certainty that they are going to be a star for many years.

His brother did the same thing. Signed himself a deal that if he desires to do so can bring him straight to free agency without giving up any UFA years. Ignoring cap inflation, on paper he is the highest paid player on his team without actually having to give up the term that the much more productive Gaudreau gave up. Even with cap inflation, if you consider that Matthew essentially signed a 4 year 7.5M contract because of his 9M qualifying offer for year 4, he basically got the same cap hit percentage as Gaudreau while giving up no UFA years.

 

[Ice-Tray]

If i was Brady...i would be betting on myself in year 3 to have an offensive explosion. Go from being an upper 40s guy to a mid 60s or better guy. I wouldn't be in a rush to sign anything. Bottom line for Brady is it's pretty unlikely that his year 3 decreases his future revenue possibility, more likely that year 3 increases it.

I'll go on record with it now saying it's not in Brady's interest to sign. And we'll spend the next year with guys posting left and right about PD not doing his job

Caveat: if Brady does sign, it'll be long term and team friendly

I’d prefer to gamble on an identical deal that Chabot got as an easy sell.

20 NHL season with 20 goals to start his career, on one the absolutely worst teams talent-wise in the league?

I’d lock him up for sure, and we can all laid how great his contract is in two years.

 

[JungleBeat]

$8M for Brady would be a colossal mistake from what he’s showed so far. Good lord.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I don't think he will sign a bridge because he's a throw back. He will sign a bridge because he has smart people advising him who understand that this is a business. Star players always get more by waiting because when a player locks himself in long term, he's locking himself into being paid in future years based on where the HRR was the year that he signed. With the cap almost always going up, that's a bad move to make for a player who has some certainty that they are going to be a star for many years.

His brother did the same thing. Signed himself a deal that if he desires to do so can bring him straight to free agency without giving up any UFA years. Ignoring cap inflation, on paper he is the highest paid player on his team without actually having to give up the term that the much more productive Gaudreau gave up. Even with cap inflation, if you consider that Matthew essentially signed a 4 year 7.5M contract because of his 9M qualifying offer for year 4, he basically got the same cap hit percentage as Gaudreau while giving up no UFA years.

I think Brady is in a spot right now that if the team offers the Chabot deal he jumps on it.

He has the solid rookie and sophomore seasons to hint a higher production, along with intangibles, and marketable presence, and potential leadership qualities, but it’s also still a bit of a gamble if his production will hit the 60’s to 70’s on this team in the short term.

I think, like Chabot, 8 mill is an over payment to start, with the idea that it will be a sweet deal by the midpoint at least.

You absolutely want an 8 year prime locking up deal for BT, for an the same reasons that it was important for Chabot to be locked down. In addition, once the leadership core is locked down, it should be easier to get the complimentary guys to buy in.

 

[Ice-Tray]

$8M for Brady would be a colossal mistake from what he’s showed so far. Good lord.

Lordy Lordy I disagree!

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

8x8 is too much. We can talk tv contracts and cap and all that other stuff, and it means squat. This is a smaller market team that functions on pure dollars, not cap or percentage of cap. Two guys making $16 mil just won't work. If we weren't will to do it with Erik and Mark, we're sure as hell not doing it with two guys who are a couple tiers below them.

We need to look beyond worth and focus on the budget.

 

[Ice-Tray]

8x8 is too much. We can talk tv contracts and cap and all that other stuff, and it means squat. This is a smaller market team that functions on pure dollars, not cap or percentage of cap. Two guys making $16 mil just won't work. If we weren't will to do it with Erik and Mark, we're sure as hell not doing it with two guys who are a couple tiers below them.

We need to look beyond worth and focus on the budget.

No, what we need to be doing is gambling on our young stars and locking them up for their entire prime years, instead of giving more money to older stars who are coming out of their primes.

You overpay for the first few years and underpay for the last few, and you get their best years locked down. Other wise we’d be looking at two players that are actually worth 9.5 to 11.5 million looking to get paid in a few years instead of over paying a couple of vets who’s better days are long past.

 

[JD1]

This is never ever ever going to happen. I'd love to be wrong, but let's be real here.

Go look up who his agent is along with the history of the Tkachuk family and their contract negotiations. In the words of a great player, when it comes time to negotiate, Brady is going to get what he's worth.

I'm just curious about how aggressive fans would want to see the team act in locking him down. I think 8 million is a major overpayment in the short term, but I think the end result of waiting will be that he's not going to cost much less than that but it will be on a much shorter term deal.

I of course would want him locked down at a lower number, but I wouldn't think twice about giving him the Chabot contract if that was the best the Sens could do. The contract will not kick in until 2021-22, that coincides with when the US TV deal expires. There's a very good chance the cap is going to continue to go up with that new TV deal. It will be very advantageous to get our key guys locked up and cost controlled.

Just for some perspective, Landeskog received a contract that under next year's possible 83+ million dollar cap would be north of 7 million for 7 years. That was after producing similarly to Tkachuk in only 1.5 seasons (12-13 shortened). Both have certain on ice traits and off ice intangibles that boost their value when it comes to AAV, so I think they make a decent comparison.

I wouldn't consider 8 x 8 a good contract at all, but I don't think it's a bad one, and I think it's better than the alternative which will be bridging Tkachuk at an AAV not all that much lower and risking that cap inflation and the lack of power forwards who ever get anywhere close to UFA puts Tkachuk in a spot where 8 million would have been a bargain.

I don't think Brady will sign next summer. As i said, better for him to wait, produce, maximize his contract.

The reason i threw the caveat in is because if he signs, it'll be considered friendly because based on productivity thus far, i don't think he can maximixe his money

 

[BondraTime]

Chabot got 8 million because he put up 55 points (in 70 games) as a D, showing elite skill, skating and vision in his second season in the league.

Tkachuck is producing in the 40's in points as a forward thus far, and has shown to be one of the best inside the hashmarks, but has not shown much outside that area. He should be nowhere near the same type of contract that Chabot earned. He should be a tier above White if he has a similar year next season in the 5.5-6 area.

Brady would need to bet on himself to get to the 8 million dollar range, and I'm not sure I'd bet on him to put up the numbers needed to safely get that type of contract.

Lamdeskog got 8.86% of the cap hit in 2014 after putting up 65 points. Should Brady put that up next year, 7 million AAV over 8 years makes sense should the cap rise to 83-84 million

 

[Upgrayedd]

8x8 for Brady is way to high imo....he should be in the 5 to 6 million dollar range over 3 to 5 years. I think some folks get way to enamoured with the flossing etc...

 

[SensFan1010]

6.5x5 Is a very fair deal IMO

 

[TheNewEra]

we should lock him up for 8 years imo if possible, max i would go is 6 per year

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Chabot got 8 million because he put up 55 points (in 70 games) as a D, showing elite skill, skating and vision in his second season in the league.

Tkachuck is producing in the 40's in points as a forward thus far, and has shown to be one of the best inside the hashmarks, but has not shown much outside that area. He should be nowhere near the same type of contract that Chabot earned. He should be a tier above White if he has a similar year next season in the 5.5-6 area.

Brady would need to bet on himself to get to the 8 million dollar range, and I'm not sure I'd bet on him to put up the numbers needed to safely get that type of contract.

Lamdeskog got 8.86% of the cap hit in 2014 after putting up 65 points. Should Brady put that up next year, 7 million AAV over 8 years makes sense should the cap rise to 83-84 million

Landeskog signed after his 2nd season. So that was 1.5 seasons of averaging just below 50 points. He also signed for 7 years.

An 8 year extension will buy up 4 UFA years + a few arbitration years.

The way I see it, he is getting around 6M on a bridge. Meier, after peaking with one 66 point season got 6 x 4 with a huge 10M QO on the fifth year.

So my logic is, I'd go 8 x 8 knowing we probably are overpaying 2M per season on the 4 RFA years, but with how coveted Brady's play style will be as a UFA and where the cap is going, we will more than get it back on the second half when 8M will be underpaid.

Not to mention that cap/salary now should be worth less to the Sens than cap/salary a few years from now. We have an abundance of cap right now and it doesn't roll over season to season. Better to overpay key guys in the short term with that cap to get them cost controlled over the long term when the rebuild should be peaking.

 

[BondraTime]

Landeskog signed after his 2nd season. So that was 1.5 seasons of averaging just below 50 points. He also signed for 7 years.

An 8 year extension will buy up 4 UFA years + a few arbitration years.

The way I see it, he is getting around 6M on a bridge. Meier, after peaking with one 66 point season got 6 x 4 with a huge 10M QO on the fifth year.

So my logic is, I'd go 8 x 8 knowing we probably are overpaying 2M per season on the 4 RFA years, but with how coveted Brady's play style will be as a UFA and where the cap is going, we will more than get it back on the second half when 8M will be underpaid.

Not to mention that cap/salary now should be worth less to the Sens than cap/salary a few years from now. We have an abundance of cap right now and it doesn't roll over season to season. Better to overpay key guys in the short term with that cap to get them cost controlled over the long term when the rebuild should be peaking.

Landeskog put up his points in his 3rd season, whereas Brady is looking at 45ish points in his 2nd. If Landeskog put up another ~45-50 point season that 3rd year, he gets a lower AAV.

As I said, Tkachuk doesn't have the numbers right now and will need at least 60 points (at the absolute minimum next) year to ask for 8 million. Chabot signed after his 2nd year because he had the numbers to get that kind of deal (55 points in 70 games as a D). If the Sens thin Tkachuk will break the bank that 3rd year, they should sign him long term, but he in no way could garner the type of contract Chabot received after 2 seasons with point in the 40's (should he remain there)

If Brady put up points in the 60's this season, he likely could ask for 7ish million over a long term deal. Right now, he doesn't have much on his side (still only his 2nd year, he could and likely will bet on himself to produce more next year) to ask for that kind of money. Just from a numbers perspective, he is producing like an average 2nd liner thus far, he needs to have at least a season where he produces like a 1st line guy to be paid like one.

I have no doubt the Sens will pay him more than he's "earned"(He's a great player, and will be a great player for a long time for us) but production is what gets forwards big contracts, and he has yet to produce like a 1st liner. He doesn't deserve that kind of contract yet, and until he produces 60+ points he won't be.