Proposal: Trade Rumors and Proposals Thread: Chris Kelly Attending Camp on PTO

[Aerchon]

Weber has been a great #1D for a while, wouldnt say he is now. Didnt like what I saw this year and I weigh a ton of what fans from that team say (specifically in their own boards). Hes still a good D but fans that thought they were getting some elite, top 5 D realized they were in for a nasty suprise. For Montreal fans id say its the complete opposite. They want to praise Weber as much as they can because this is the guy they are stuck with. Any fanbase overrates incoming players they just traded for (for the first year at least).

As for that trade: I thought that trade was brutal for the get go. I thought maybe that trade would be a wash for 2 or 3 years and then after Nashville would be significantly better off for the long run. To my suprise, Nashville has walked away the victor after one year. Weber has done nothing for Montreal that Subban didnt already do (aka be an elite first 30 game team, float by till end of season and lead them to a round 1 loss). But Subban did something for Nashville Weber couldnt

Subban didnt just magically buy into a system (inferring he didnt buy into a system in Montreal). He was always elite and good defensively in Montreal and bought into whatever system they had there. Subban was just utilized waaaay better in Nashville and he was able to be used to his full capacity. Subban fits Nashville better because he has way more dynamics to him than Weber ever had. Weber was good defensively (overrated because he hit hard) and good on the PP. He was not a good even strength puck mover. Vs Subban who is an elite puck mover, good defensively and rivals Weber on the PP.

Weber meanwhile will maybe get a bit underrated in the future because he plays for Montreal (same as when Subban did). That team is a tire fire and hell have to be the head of that. But hes already showing hes not all that great anymore and its only getting worse. Not only do I think Klefbom AND Larsson will both be better next season. I would say 25/30 other D will be as well

We have seen two completely different players. Subban was legit embarrassing defensively his last year in Montreal. His whole career barring last year he absolutely was imo a one dimensional defender. Not generally brutal defensively but not good either.

I know a few Montreal fans and lurked thier boards this year. For every sensible fan recognizing the good things Weber does there are two more stuck on how "stupid" it was trading away Subban. Subban lol the best defensemen in the league. Its a joke he won the Norris. Doubt there are many pundits that believe Subban didnt get significantly more defensively responsible in Nashville than his previous in Montreal. Price was certainly not upset Subban left and is quoted as saying he was looking forward to the defensive stability Weber brings.

I am a huge Larsson fan. Klefbom has significantly improved every year and is looking great as well. I hope one or both become better than Weber. I believe that could happen but think that is unlikely to happen this year.

I would be curious what the mains would say about Larsson and Klefbom being arguably better last year and likely better this year.

 

[Jumptheshark]

If Chia can pull off the following, he could call it a day for the next two years at least:

RNH, EDM 1st '18, EDM 2nd '19

for

Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green and Gustav Nyquist.

Re-sign AA @ four years $2.5M, Iginla @ 1 year $2M plus $1M in performance bonuses, and here's your contender:

Maroon-McDavid-Nyquist
Lucic-Draisaitl-Strome
Caggiula/Slepyshev-AA-Iginla
Jokinen-Letestu-Kassian
Caggiula/Slepyshev, Khaira

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Green
Russell-Benning/Nurse
Benning/Nurse

Talbot
LB

($72.3M total)

Tons of depth, tons of skill and speed, a great leadership group led by Looch, McDavid and Iggy. That team has no real weakness, and should very easily make the WCF. It also allows us to keep all of our top prospects to replace expiring contracts like Strome, Green and Nyquist.

Problem is 18/19 season

RFAS
1-Strome
2-Slepyshev
3-Caggs
4-Pak
5-Benning
6-Nurse
11-Braossait
UFAS
7-Letestu
8-Maroon
9-Jokinen
10-Fayne(yes I know)

we need to keep this in mind when planning

a few will be looking for pay raises

 

[Cawz]

Problem is 18/19 season

RFAS
1-Strome
2-Slepyshev
3-Caggs
4-Pak
5-Benning
6-Nurse
11-Braossait
UFAS
7-Letestu
8-Maroon
9-Jokinen
10-Fayne(yes I know)

we need to keep this in mind when planning

a few will be looking for pay raises

Benning and Nurse are the only 2 that are noteworthy - and the jury is out on Benning, as he could easily regress. Anyone else wants a raise that causes cap issues, replace them with cheaper options.

 

[McTrashBoat]

3 weeks till training camp

11ish days until penticton

 

[Jumptheshark]

Benning and Nurse are the only 2 that are noteworthy - and the jury is out on Benning, as he could easily regress. Anyone else wants a raise that causes cap issues, replace them with cheaper options.

no love for sleps or caggs

 

[lakai17]

no love for sleps or caggs

Caggiula should be resigned as he chose Edmonton.

If there's room I'd resign Slepy for sure. A drafted pick who is not even 25, just entering his prime.

Brossoit we need to keep also.

 

[Jejune]

Caggiula should be resigned as he chose Edmonton.

If there's room I'd resign Slepy for sure. A drafted pick who is not even 25, just entering his prime.

Brossoit we need to keep also.

As long as they're reasonable, sure. It's if they want big raises that they can be allowed to walk. None of them are huge difference makers so there's not much point in overpaying.

 

[lakai17]

As long as they're reasonable, sure. It's if they want big raises that they can be allowed to walk. None of them are huge difference makers so there's not much point in overpaying.

Brossoit to me is the most important as good goaltending is a necessity. He won't be asking for a big payday being the backup to Talbot.

Nurse is an important signing as well.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

Problem is 18/19 season

RFAS
1-Strome
2-Slepyshev
3-Caggs
4-Pak
5-Benning
6-Nurse
11-Braossait
UFAS
7-Letestu
8-Maroon
9-Jokinen
10-Fayne(yes I know)

we need to keep this in mind when planning

a few will be looking for pay raises

Meh, there are hardly any big names in there that could likely deserve any significant raises.

Maybe Benning or Nurse, if gets his **** together, could get a long term deal and decent raise but almost everyone else would be looking at a 1-2 year deal with minimal raises. Unless of course a few guys blow the door off and have an outstanding season, which IMO is a good thing instead of a bad thing.

 

[rboomercat90]

We're going to need more guys like Kassian who will resign here for less just for the opportunity for a chance to win. That's why McDavid and Draisatl are worth what they'll be making. Good complimentary players will sign for a discount now. Gone are the days we need to overpay for plugs like Belanger and Fayne, etc.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Weber has been a great #1D for a while, wouldnt say he is now. Didnt like what I saw this year and I weigh a ton of what fans from that team say (specifically in their own boards). Hes still a good D but fans that thought they were getting some elite, top 5 D realized they were in for a nasty suprise. For Montreal fans id say its the complete opposite. They want to praise Weber as much as they can because this is the guy they are stuck with. Any fanbase overrates incoming players they just traded for (for the first year at least).

As for that trade: I thought that trade was brutal for the get go. I thought maybe that trade would be a wash for 2 or 3 years and then after Nashville would be significantly better off for the long run. To my suprise, Nashville has walked away the victor after one year. Weber has done nothing for Montreal that Subban didnt already do (aka be an elite first 30 game team, float by till end of season and lead them to a round 1 loss). But Subban did something for Nashville Weber couldnt

Subban didnt just magically buy into a system (inferring he didnt buy into a system in Montreal). He was always elite and good defensively in Montreal and bought into whatever system they had there. Subban was just utilized waaaay better in Nashville and he was able to be used to his full capacity. Subban fits Nashville better because he has way more dynamics to him than Weber ever had. Weber was good defensively (overrated because he hit hard) and good on the PP. He was not a good even strength puck mover. Vs Subban who is an elite puck mover, good defensively and rivals Weber on the PP.

Weber meanwhile will maybe get a bit underrated in the future because he plays for Montreal (same as when Subban did). That team is a tire fire and hell have to be the head of that. But hes already showing hes not all that great anymore and its only getting worse. Not only do I think Klefbom AND Larsson will both be better next season. I would say 25/30 other D will be as well

Even with the Price effect Weber still had the lowest GA/60 5 on 5. That being said I'm not sure it's the fact that Weber was elite defensively or Montreal's Dman after the top pairing was just that bad that not even Price could bail them out, seems much more like the latter than former. (Montreal fans complained about how dreadful their bottom pairing and even Petry at times was, and whoever the f Petry was paired with).

 

[Cawz]

no love for sleps or caggs

For sure. But if cap space becomes an issue, they are not one of the core guys that you need to make space for.

 

[belair]

We're going to need more guys like Kassian who will resign here for less just for the opportunity for a chance to win. That's why McDavid and Draisatl are worth what they'll be making. Good complimentary players will sign for a discount now. Gone are the days we need to overpay for plugs like Belanger and Fayne, etc.

We're going to see a lot of plug and play veteran signings over the next few seasons IMO. Signings like the Jokinen and Gryba deals--hopefully more prominent players in the future. We're a good opportunity to put up some decent numbers with some good centers. We're a good shot at grabbing a Cup on the way out. And for some of the younger vets, we're likely a good springboard for a more lucrative contract for FAs coming off of a bad year.

 

[Jumptheshark]

For sure. But if cap space becomes an issue, they are not one of the core guys that you need to make space for.

only 10 players we would need to replace with cheaper players

lol


next off season will be fun around here

just a prediction

 

[rboomercat90]

We're going to see a lot of plug and play veteran signings over the next few seasons IMO. Signings like the Jokinen and Gryba deals--hopefully more prominent players in the future. We're a good opportunity to put up some decent numbers with some good centers. We're a good shot at grabbing a Cup on the way out. And for some of the younger vets, we're likely a good springboard for a more lucrative contract for FAs coming off of a bad year.

This is how I see the future of the lineup as well. I think we've now got a true core of players (and you can tell who they are by the lengths of their contracts) and then a bunch of lineup spots that will have new faces every year or two. Be careful which players you attach yourself to.

 

[Cawz]

only 10 players we would need to replace with cheaper players

lol


next off season will be fun around here

just a prediction

Not 10, since JJ and Fayne are not in the long term plans, but yeah, 4 of those 8 may not be returning.

 

[Fourier]

Thank you for taking the time to respond. It is genuinely appreciated. I'll comment below on how I see each point below in my scenario.

There are a lot of factors that go into it. If I didn't have this pesky full-time job I could quantify it and provide more rigour to my analysis.

Your analysis below is more than adequate. Typically what I see is usually without any support.

The CAD likely won't rise as much as people believe. The price of oil will increase a little before next year's cap is set, but not that much. Increased shale development will lessen the impact of an increase in oil prices correlating to a rise in the CAD value. The huge spike in the value of the CAD in 2011-2014 wouldn't be repeated to the same even if oil hits $125 for WTI again. Interest rates will rise in lock step with any increases in the U.S., thus lowering the impact on the CAD of interest rate increases.

I agree with the core of this. I have built all of my predictions by starting with the caveat...If the $CDN stays where it is right now... I think there is a chance it could appreciate modestly this year as the BoC seems a little more hawkish than the Fed. BUt I also do not see oil prices rising much over the next few years. That said at today's value the impact on the cap is still fairly significant. IT is up almost 4 cents so far this year and that would equate to about $1.2M more on the cap.

Revenue from broadcasting rights are another issue. There was that $150m payment for 2014-15 and 2015-16 that has gone away. That played a role in smaller increases in the cap the past two seasons. Even though payments will go up slightly, I think people underestimate the value of that big payment in previous years, i.e. pointing to the big jump in the cap those two seasons.

I never really understood how they feathered these lump sum payments into the cap. Typically the NHL gets some sort of feathering agreement so as to spread the impact out over additional years but we never got any details on this. That said the payments ended last year so if they simply came off the books we would have expected a big hit to the cap since $150M equates to about $2.5M off the cap. Yet we still saw revenue rise by about 6.7% last year. In any case the end of the payments would be already baked into the cake so it would not be a draw on the change one would expect going forward. In contrast, the year to year increase in the Rogers deal would add about $250K to the cap. This is a modest amount but it helps.

It's still a while until the NHL contract in the U.S. is up for renewal, but ESPN is really in a death spiral thanks in large part to overpaying for NFL rights. One less bidder for NHL rights in the U.S. is a big deal.

This is more of a longer term issue. For the next two years, which is my main concern the rights are stable. There is an expectation I believe of a much larger deal but I will wait on that one until it gets closer.

New arenas provide a boost to HRR. Anecdotally for HFOil, there are a lot of people on here who went to games at Rogers last season. The cost per person increased a lot over Rexall, plus more boxes and more seats overall.

Four arenas have opened in the last seven years. Only two potential arenas on the horizon, Calgary and Ottawa. Neither have been approved. Ottawa looks a little closer to happening. It will be years until they break ground on either.

Again my concern is the next two years so long term new arenas do not factor into my calculations. nd you are right tey do have a significant impact when they open. That said Detroit's new arena is opening this year which is why I had about $500K more in my numbers from this. But that is basically already in the projection for revenue growth I was using which was about 5%. Add in about $600K for the new Adidas deal and with the $CDN where it is today and this would put you somewhere around $80.5-81M. So even if the NHLPA kills the escalator completely $80M is not at all unreasonable for next year even with the comments you have made above.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Next year he wont be, arguably wasnt either this year. Good D man (historically drastically overrated) and now on a steep decline. If you read any Montreal PGT last half of last year, its actually kind of sad seeing Montreal fans come to the realization Weber isnt nearly as good as they thought he was going to be

Id say a mile away from Weber, that cap hit and potential for wheels to fall off are too much

Overrated? Seriously. Decline? Guy dominted the first half of the season, then MTL the TEAM fell apart

MTL is a seriously bad team without Price. End of story. 1 man can't do it all

Weber is one of the best dmen in the NHL. Period.



Simplest anology I can give of Weber. Last year in that 10-0? beatdown they took. Webs played 25min and was a +/-0. That tells you everything

Guy isn't on a decline. His team is just that bad

He's better then Klef or Larsson. It's not even close

 

[belair]

Overrated? Seriously. Decline? Guy dominted the first half of the season, then MTL the TEAM fell apart

MTL is a seriously bad team without Price. End of story. 1 man can't do it all

Weber is one of the best dmen in the NHL. Period.



Simplest anology I can give of Weber. Last year in that 10-0? beatdown they took. Webs played 25min and was a +/-0. That tells you everything

Guy isn't on a decline. His team is just that bad

He's better then Klef or Larsson. It's not even close

I would sincerely hope so. They just traded PK Subban for him.

The Oilers still couldn't afford him nor should they. He's a completely unnecessary player who would probably hurt the team more with the acquisition cost than help them with his high-end ability.

 

[bobbythebrain]

I would sincerely hope so. They just traded PK Subban for him.

The Oilers still couldn't afford him nor should they. He's a completely unnecessary player who would probably hurt the team more with the acquisition cost than help them with his high-end ability.

Oh I agree we don't need him or his cap hit

But to call him overrated and declining cuz of his current situation is what I responded to. Weber is an elite defenseman. Right now.

 

[s7ark]

I was away for the weekend and traveled up north today. Why are we talking about Weber? Is there a rumor or is it just end of the summer idle fantasy talk?

 

[Raab]

I would sincerely hope so. They just traded PK Subban for him.

The Oilers still couldn't afford him nor should they. He's a completely unnecessary player who would probably hurt the team more with the acquisition cost than help them with his high-end ability.

Yea, because winning multiple cups isn't a good thing? We get Weber you can almost guarantee a cup in Edmonton, maybe 2 or 3 which would be a new dynasty.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Yea, because winning multiple cups isn't a good thing? We get Weber you can almost guarantee a cup in Edmonton, maybe 2 or 3 which would be a new dynasty.

We aren't getting Weber so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

 

[belair]

Yea, because winning multiple cups isn't a good thing? We get Weber you can almost guarantee a cup in Edmonton, maybe 2 or 3 which would be a new dynasty.

We're in pretty good shape to win a few of them already. I'd highly prefer not ****ing it up and potentially missing out on a few more so we can add another franchise player--one in the later stages of him NHL career.

Regardless, it's been said. Not happening.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I was away for the weekend and traveled up north today. Why are we talking about Weber? Is there a rumor or is it just end of the summer idle fantasy talk?

Pretty sure it's just fantasy talk or the thread would be much busier.