Proposal: Trade Juuse Saros

[Predsanddead24]

I'm assuming Saros would have even more motivation to stay here in his later years... when maybe he will have started a family and be even more interested in staying put to ride off into the sunset, a la Pekka. And be open to a couple one-off years tagged on as a backup perhaps. And I'm willing to throw the bone in that direction.

Whereas the early years with front-loads and bonus money and term looming into his twilight years make him a somewhat less palatable trade target for other teams, even without the protection clauses in place.

$42M is still a lot of money. And by investing his front-loaded bonus money, he can make that equivalent to a more spread-out $50M contract. What is the MOST he could get on the open market? Around 7x$8.5M? ~$60M? Would you gamble $50M to make an extra $10M? I don't think he will. I sure wouldn't.

I don't know I feel like this conversation is getting far into psychoanalyzing Saros's thought process to really be useful. I will say that based on comparison to other goalie contracts its very likely he would request and receive a 10 team NTC throughout as a minimum and very likely more. History also suggests that most guys are willing to gamble somewhat on their contracts if they aren't getting offers they are happy with. See for example Forsberg who held out on re-signing until days before he hit UFA and ended up with a great deal including a full NMC.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't know I feel like this conversation is getting far into psychoanalyzing Saros's thought process to really be useful. I will say that based on comparison to other goalie contracts its very likely he would request and receive a 10 team NTC throughout as a minimum and very likely more. History also suggests that most guys are willing to gamble somewhat on their contracts if they aren't getting offers they are happy with. See for example Forsberg who held out on re-signing until days before he hit UFA and ended up with a great deal including a full NMC.

I do think we can afford to play hardball to a much greater extent with Saros than we did with Forsberg. But I guess we'll see in about 3-6 months how this all plays out.

 

[Armourboy]

Well I had a bunch typed out and the site brain farted and I lost it so I'll sum it up, Expansion is the exact reason Saros will want a NMC and I'm willing to bet he will bend on the money to insure he has that control.

It's ultimately why I think he ends up getting traded and why suddenly Trotz seemed to become much more willing to toss him out there.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Well I had a bunch typed out and the site brain farted and I lost it so I'll sum it up, Expansion is the exact reason Saros will want a NMC and I'm willing to bet he will bend on the money to insure he has that control.

It's ultimately why I think he ends up getting traded and why suddenly Trotz seemed to become much more willing to toss him out there.

So you tell him. If he's so worried about staying in Nashville through Expansion that he MUST have a NMC... then he's 100% getting traded and NOT staying in Nashville!

Whereas if he signs without an NMC, there's still some chance that Askarov won't cut it, or Saros will just always continue to be better than Askarov, and therefore we might choose to protect Saros over Askarov. Or that the Expansion team won't want to pick up Saros at his relatively high contract and advanced age anyway. So he MIGHT stay in Nashville.

What's so hard to understand about that?

 

[Armourboy]

So you tell him. If he's so worried about staying in Nashville through Expansion that he MUST have a NMC... then he's 100% getting traded and NOT staying in Nashville!

Whereas if he signs without an NMC, there's still some chance that Askarov won't cut it, or Saros will just always continue to be better than Askarov, and therefore we might choose to protect Saros over Askarov. Or that the Expansion team won't want to pick up Saros at his relatively high contract and advanced age anyway. So he MIGHT stay in Nashville.

What's so hard to understand about that?

See you are stuck on the idea he is worried about staying in Nashville, I don't think he is.

See you keep throwing in words like chance, choose, might, none of those are definitely.

This is why I think he is getting traded in the offseason. That battle is already happening.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

See you are stuck on the idea he is worried about staying in Nashville, I don't think he is.

See you keep throwing in words like chance, choose, might, none of those are definitely.

But you guys are the ones saying he wants an NMC that badly, not me.

I'm arguing against your assertions that he does, not suggesting that I think he actually does.

 

[Armourboy]

But you guys are the ones saying he wants an NMC that badly, not me.

You seem to be having a hard time understanding why. It's not about being in Nashville, it's about being able to control where he is going to be long term. Nashville itself doesn't have a thing in the world to do with it.

It's about not being thrown to Atlanta, Houston, Utah in 3 years if he doesn't want to be.

 

[Predsanddead24]

But you guys are the ones saying he wants an NMC that badly, not me.

It is true that none of us know what Saros truly wants. The main point I am making (and I think Armourboy too) is that players of Saros's caliber nearly always get some sort of NTC and quite frequently a full NMC. Odds are if he hits the market he could easily get an NMC from someone. Saros has a very good reason in particular to want one if he stays in Nashville since he is in a situation where he has an obvious replacement coming up that has good odds of leading to a scenario where we'd want to trade Saros or leave him unprotected in an expansion draft. So it seems unlikely to me that he would take a contract that doesn't have at a minimum some sort of NTC and especially if we are also trying to get him to take a discount in term or dollar amount as well.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

You seem to be having a hard time understanding why. It's not about being in Nashville, it's about being able to control where he is going to be long term. Nashville itself doesn't have a thing in the world to do with it.

It's about not being thrown to Atlanta, Houston, Utah in 3 years if he doesn't want to be.

I think you guys are trying too hard to read Saros' mind. I'm completely agnostic to what he's thinking. I'm merely presenting what the Nashville/Trotz position needs to be.

If he wants an NMC for whatever reason, it really doesn't matter why. He gets traded. And we could trade him anywhere in the league, quite possibly worse places than Atlanta, Houston, or Utah. He could also get injured some time next season, or suck, and lose out on the $50M he might otherwise make from us. It's his choice, I'm just stating the kind of offer that management should actually present to him. And some of the potential selling features associated with it.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I think you guys are trying too hard to read Saros' mind. I'm completely agnostic to what he's thinking. I'm merely presenting what the Nashville/Trotz position needs to be.

If he wants an NMC for whatever reason, it really doesn't matter why. He gets traded. And we could trade him anywhere in the league, quite possibly worse places than Atlanta, Houston, or Utah. He could also get injured some time next season, or suck, and lose out on the $50M he might otherwise make from us. It's his choice, I'm just stating the kind of offer that management should actually present to him.

I feel like I'm actually trying to do the opposite of reading his mind. I'm looking at contracts for comparable players and saying all of these guys gets NTCs and a fair amount get NMCs so its seems unlikely to me we can avoid giving him one. Especially given that we have a scenario where Saros being traded or left unprotected in an expansion draft is super likely. I have no idea what Saros mindset is and maybe he bucks the trend, but in general most players in his position have made sure they got trade protection.

Really though I don't think we actually disagree on the merits regarding extending Saros. I agree we should present him an offer around what you're proposing and if he doesn't take then we trade him. I just fall on the side that comparison to other contracts around the league suggests he won't take that deal and so we should be prepared to trade him. The one benefit of holding him through the deadline is it does remove the guess work since we can negotiate an extension with him. In the offseason we can give him our best offer, pursue trade options, and then say take it or leave it.

I'll also add that you've said several times you think Saros will sign a team friendly deal because he's a big company man so you have in fact tried to read his mind.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I feel like I'm actually trying to do the opposite of reading his mind. I'm looking at contracts for comparable players and saying all of these guys gets NTCs and a fair amount get NMCs so its seems unlikely to me we can avoid giving him one. Especially given that we have a scenario where Saros being traded or left unprotected in an expansion draft is super likely. I have no idea what Saros mindset is and maybe he bucks the trend, but in general most players in his position have made sure they got trade protection.

Really though I don't think we actually disagree on the merits regarding extending Saros. I agree we should present him an offer around what you're proposing and if he doesn't take then we trade him. I just fall on the side that comparison to other contracts around the league suggests he won't take that deal and so we should be prepared to trade him. The one benefit of holding him through the deadline is it does remove the guess work since we can negotiate an extension with him. In the offseason we can give him our best offer, pursue trade options, and then say take it or leave it.

I'll also add that you've said several times you think Saros will sign a team friendly deal because he's a big company man so you have in fact tried to read his mind.

I guess we’re all editorializing somewhat around our core positions. Which is perhaps what draws more attention than those actual core positions do!

You guys may also be overly stigmatizing the Expansion destinations in the new era of billion-dollar teams, immediate success, and even Cup victories. But regardless, it does sound like we are on the same page wrt the required path forward from the Preds’ perspective. There will be no NMC. Saros can do what he will with that fact.

Now if we want to wager on what he does - without any suggestion of reading his mind - I say he takes our deal. It is too attractive to pass up, even without the NMC protection.

 

[Armourboy]

I guess we’re all editorializing somewhat around our core positions. Which is perhaps what draws more attention than those actual core positions do!

You guys may also be overly stigmatizing the Expansion destinations in the new era of billion-dollar teams, immediate success, and even Cup victories. But regardless, it does sound like we are on the same page wrt the required path forward from the Preds’ perspective. There will be no NMC. Saros can do what he will with that fact.

Now if we want to wager on what he does - without any suggestion of reading his mind - I say he takes our deal. It is too attractive to pass up, even without the NMC protection.

I think if its a team friendly deal without a NMC that is much less likely that he doesn't look elsewhere. You don't get team friendly and not give a guy protection as well. You either give them the money with no protection or they get protection and you get less money. We've seen that on both sides of aisle between RyJo, Ellis, Forsberg, Josi, etc.

 

[maplepred]

Trade Saros and come back even stronger next season with askarov. Stupid move to keep him we aren’t winning the cup this year we don’t have the team. Saros has most value now because he gives his new team minimum two cup runs and possibly more of extended. Trading him next season as pending ufa gives us much less bang for our buck.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'm all for trading Saros at some point but I think its pretty clear that there just wasn't really a market for him this deadline. Or at least not a market that is any better than what will be available this offseason. Keep in mind trading him this offseason also lets the team sign him long term immediately as well which isn't the case at this deadline.

 

[Armourboy]

I'm all for trading Saros at some point but I think its pretty clear that there just wasn't really a market for him this deadline. Or at least not a market that is any better than what will be available this offseason. Keep in mind trading him this offseason also lets the team sign him long term immediately as well which isn't the case at this deadline.

Agreed. The market for Saros has all but dried up for the time being. Jersey seems to be unwilling to let go of much of anything that has actual value, LA, Ottawa, Carolina, Edmonton, Toronto and Buffalo have all decided to stand pat atm. I don't see his value changing much between now and next season. Now if it's pushed to the deadline next season you probably don't get much more than a late first.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I doubt Saros' value changes much going forward. Whether it's at the draft, later in the summer after we've exhausted any extension efforts, or during next season... it's always going to be something pretty "meh". Because that just seems to be what the NHL mindset is towards goalie valuation.

What will change is our threshold for what we'll accept back. Right now, we don't know if or how much we can extend Saros for, or what the terms and conditions of that extension would be. But once we get that firmed up later in the summer (it will be after the draft though), then it's possible our bar will be lowered to meet the NHL market valuation.

If we get to a certain point, that "Holtz + 1st" we've been laughing at up to now could end up meeting our lowered threshold.

 

[hockey diva]

I would rather not hitch this team to Jusse long term, I just don't think he is good enough to get us to the promised land. Especially since our D is in such flux right now.

 

[Predsanddead24]

If flip-flopped on what I think is going to happen a bunch (partially because Trotz has changed his tune a lot too) but I kind of get the sense that provided we don't have a meltdown and miss the playoffs that we are going to do whatever it takes to wrap Saros up to a long term deal this offseason. It just seems really unlikely to me that Trotz would re-sign all of these various depth guys signaling that he likes the overall construction of the team and then turn around and have a giant question mark for the goaltending situation.

 

[Scoresberg]

Saros' value will never be higher than at this TDL where teams could get him dirt cheap for two playoff runs.

During the summer:

NJD will go with Markstrom.

CAR will not do anything.

TOR doesn't have anything for us. Neither does LAK.

OTT is only realistic one, although I doubt they want Saros who they have to re-sign in a year.

The time to trade him was few weeks ago. In the summer, teams will be more leery as they know the extension is looming. NHL is a conservative league and I doubt teams will want to chain themselves to 5-11 goalie for 8 years. Exception being us.

Trading Saros would've been the true rebuilding move, not trading the corpse of Johansen or swapping Duchene for a better player in ROR. They will most likely re-sign Saros and it will be like the rebuild that never truly was.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I would rather not hitch this team to Jusse long term, I just don't think he is good enough to get us to the promised land. Especially since our D is in such flux right now.

I just don't believe that extending him automatically equates to "hitching the team to him" long term. You can sign him to a contract, just to preserve the asset value and tide us over until something better comes along (presumably/hopefully Askarov, but that's not certain either). And then un-hitch whenever it becomes more advantageous to un-hitch. If that's in 2 years or 5 years, who knows.

It's not like we're getting to any "promised land" in the next 2 years anyway. (Actually if we did, it'd probably be almost 100% due to Saros going into one of his crazy unbeatable modes!)

 

[wmupreds]

I would rather not hitch this team to Jusse long term, I just don't think he is good enough to get us to the promised land. Especially since our D is in such flux right now.

I mean I think you could absolutely win a cup with Saros, he's just not at the ridiculous level you'd need to do it with the current roster. But I'm not sure anyone is

 

[101st_fan]

The most likely scenario is that we go into next season with Saros / Askarov as the goalie duo. It's doubtful Saros gets traded prior to the TDL just due to the limited options right now ... NJ is 10 points out of a wild card and has to leapfrog 4 teams to get there ... CAR is pretty solidly set in a playoff position and willing to go with their current three (assuming Freddie is ever healthy for regular play). Among the likely buyers, cap space and need write off most of the rest.

That leave a possible summer trade, signing in the off season with some form of modified NTC but not full NMC, or go into next season with him unsigned but in a contract year giving the team a year from now to decide. All of those leave options in 2025-26 and beyond.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Jake Allen is under contract for next season too. So NJ picking him up may take them off the market in the summer as well.

 

[Armourboy]

Jake Allen is under contract for next season too. So NJ picking him up may take them off the market in the summer as well.

He's never really been all that good, he's just more of the same of what they've had. If Allen is your plan to make the playoffs then you still need a goalie and you ain't that serious about winning

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He's never really been all that good, he's just more of the same of what they've had. If Allen is your plan to make the playoffs then you still need a goalie and you ain't that serious about winning

He isn't their plan to make the playoffs. They can't make the playoffs. He's their plan to platoon with Vanecek next season.