Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency XXV

[Wabit]

RNH and Eberle are pretty bad contracts for what they provide... even if they both have their uses.

I'm going to defend Eberle a little. He had a down year scoring wise: his career s% was 14.1% prior to this season (425 games), and he had a 9.6% this year. That is a considerable dropoff. I think he's too young to have found Pommer's cliff and jumped off it. He's good for 20g and 50+ points on a down year. 60+ points future seasons aren't hard to imagine for him. Open market that's a $6mx6 contract as a 29 yo. A scoring 2nd line would be the ideal spot for him.

RNH is still a just turned 24 yo quality 2C. He's a draft year behind the Nino, Granny, Coyle trio that all just had career years or the Wild. He's just expendable with McDavid and Draisaitl also on the team. Koivu (if he had RNH's contract) would be expendable with if they were on the same team as McDavid and Draisaitl also.

Nino and Granlund just entered the same points production tier as RNH/Ebs have been in for years on really bad 1 line Oilers teams.

 

[BusQuets]

Expecting Suter to take a step back?

I thought they were really close this season and Spurgeon will closely edge out Suter next season.

 

[BusQuets]

I'm going to defend Eberle a little. He had a down year scoring wise: his career s% was 14.1% prior to this season (425 games), and he had a 9.6% this year. That is a considerable dropoff. I think he's too young to have found Pommer's cliff and jumped off it. He's good for 20g and 50+ points on a down year. 60+ points future seasons aren't hard to imagine for him. Open market that's a $6mx6 contract as a 29 yo. A scoring 2nd line would be the ideal spot for him.

RNH is still a just turned 24 yo quality 2C. He's a draft year behind the Nino, Granny, Coyle trio that all just had career years or the Wild. He's just expendable with McDavid and Draisaitl also on the team. Koivu (if he had RNH's contract) would be expendable with if they were on the same team as McDavid and Draisaitl also.

Nino and Granlund just entered the same points production tier as RNH/Ebs have been in for years on really bad 1 line Oilers teams.

Eberle is one of those players that has had great production but it has come in the expense of defensive side of hockey. Both Nino and Granlund are much better hockey players imo. RNH is kind of a questionmark though he looked really offensively inept in the playoffs playing behind McDavid/Draisailt/Maroon/Lucic

 

[Digitalbooya]

I thought they were really close this season and Spurgeon will closely edge out Suter next season.

Well I don't expect Spurgeon to continue getting better. He is what he is at this point. I don't really see Suter getting worse. He's got that style of play that will last for years to come.

Eberle is one of those players that has had great production but it has come in the expense of defensive side of hockey. Both Nino and Granlund are much better hockey players imo. RNH is kind of a questionmark though he looked really offensively inept in the playoffs playing behind McDavid/Draisailt/Maroon/Lucic

Eberle reminds me of Pominville to be honest.

Also, RNH and Eberle were non-factors in they playoffs cause they are too soft to get to the net.

 

[Wabit]

Well I don't expect Spurgeon to continue getting better. He is what he is at this point. I don't really see Suter getting worse. He's got that style of play that will last for years to come.


Eberle reminds me of Pominville to be honest.

Also, RNH and Eberle were non-factors in they playoffs cause they are too soft to get to the net.

Eberle is way more Vanak than Pommer. Pommer has always had a decent defensive aspect to his game.

90% of the Wild roster was a non-factor in the Playoffs this year.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Eberle is way more Vanak than Pommer. Pommer has always had a decent defensive aspect to his game.

90% of the Wild roster was a non-factor in the Playoffs this year.

Vanek is worse than Pommer... Pominville is not that great on defense. Vanek was controller disconnected though.

The Wild also have history suggesting it was more of a fluke this year than the norm.

 

[Wabit]

Vanek is worse than Pommer... Pominville is not that great on defense. Vanek was controller disconnected though.

The Wild also have history suggesting it was more of a fluke this year than the norm.

Pommer is decent on defense: better than Coyle, Nino, and Zucker; not as good as Parise and Granny for wingers. I'd take everyone on that list over Eberle defensively.

Would a Heatley (when he was on the Wild) comparison to Eberle be better?

 

[Digitalbooya]

Pommer is decent on defense: better than Coyle, Nino, and Zucker; not as good as Parise and Granny for wingers. I'd take everyone on that list over Eberle defensively.

Would a Heatley (when he was on the Wild) comparison to Eberle be better?

I doubt it. Heatley couldn't skate for **** with the Wild. I agree with the Vanek comparison though Eberle is smaller.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I think before we talk about trading any players away, we have to evaluate the health of the team and ask some questions like: without making any changes to the team, are they capable of going past the 2nd round of the playoffs? Are they capable of winning the Stanley Cup? Who represents the future of the team? Who do they build around? What does the depth look like in the minors?

I think they are capable of going past the 2nd round of the playoffs, but they have the Twins syndrome. Good season team, run up against a better playoff team and fold. They have been bounced out of the 1st round now more times than the 2nd round. There hasn't been a significant change to the core since Suter/Parise were brought on, we've just added pieces that have all fizzled out in some fashion on another.

I think ultimately the first discussion you have is with Koivu. His contract is up after next year and we need to know how long is he committed for, for how much, but also is he still worth building the team around? He had a resurgence this year, but like the team, didn't have that great of a post-season. The question is was this a fluke? Or was this a second wind?

 

[Wabit]

I think ultimately the first discussion you have is with Koivu. His contract is up after next year and we need to know how long is he committed for, for how much, but also is he still worth building the team around? He had a resurgence this year, but like the team, didn't have that great of a post-season. The question is was this a fluke? Or was this a second wind?

When Koivu's contract ends it will be the last realistic chance for him to sign a multiyear deal, after that he'll fall into the 35+ category for contracts.

It'll be the first real Wild player that GMCF has to make decision about keeping/losing in awhile. TDL rentals and bottom lines don't really count to me. I was thinking about that yesterday. Who was the last player that mattered and walked away as a UFA? Brodziak was the name I came up with, but I was indifferent to him leaving at the time.

 

[TaLoN]

When Koivu's contract ends it will be the last realistic chance for him to sign a multiyear deal, after that he'll fall into the 35+ category for contracts.

It'll be the first real Wild player that GMCF has to make decision about keeping/losing in awhile. TDL rentals and bottom lines don't really count to me. I was thinking about that yesterday. Who was the last player that mattered and walked away as a UFA? Brodziak was the name I came up with, but I was indifferent to him leaving at the time.

Not sure you can count a 4th liner in such a discussion as they come and go in the NHL commonly.

Koivu is a top 6 player... big difference in caliber of play.

 

[Wabit]

Not sure you can count a 4th liner in such a discussion as they come and go in the NHL commonly.

Koivu is a top 6 player... big difference in caliber of play.

I agree. I just couldn't think of another player going back at least the Parise/Suter era. Heater was a shell of himself when he parted ways, that was the only other name besides Brodziak I came up with.

Koivu would be more along the lines a a STL/Backes decision for me. STL made the correct move imo, but it still hurt the team losing him.

 

[TaLoN]

I agree. I just couldn't think of another player going back at least the Parise/Suter era. Heater was a shell of himself when he parted ways, that was the only other name besides Brodziak I came up with.

Koivu would be more along the lines a a STL/Backes decision for me. STL made the correct move imo, but it still hurt the team losing him.

I think as Koivu ages, he can move down the lineup more effectively here than Backes in St. Louis. The problem in St. Louis is everyone expected far too much of him at the end, thus he carried so much blame.

We understand better the value Koivu brings, and his style tends to age well in terms of being a quality player. I could see him being a very good 3rd line player in 3 years no problem.

 

[Wabit]

I think as Koivu ages, he can move down the lineup more effectively here than Backes in St. Louis. The problem in St. Louis is everyone expected far too much of him at the end, thus he carried so much blame.

We understand better the value Koivu brings, and his style tends to age well in terms of being a quality player. I could see him being a very good 3rd line player in 3 years no problem.

It comes down to money/term. If Koivu takes a reasonable salary/term to stay here, great. If he wants another big contract in money and years, that's where the debate begins.

Granny and Nino get paid this year, Dumba and Zucker get paid next year. The 19-20 season is where the questions really begin: Coyle, Scandella, and Spurgeon are all UFA's after that, and there will likely be some of the current prospects looking to get paid. And Parise and Suter are still eating $15m of the cap. It's hard to predict that far away on how players will be playing, if they'll even still be on the team, or even what the cap will be. Just looking at a little longer term than next season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

When Koivu's contract ends it will be the last realistic chance for him to sign a multiyear deal, after that he'll fall into the 35+ category for contracts.

It'll be the first real Wild player that GMCF has to make decision about keeping/losing in awhile. TDL rentals and bottom lines don't really count to me. I was thinking about that yesterday. Who was the last player that mattered and walked away as a UFA? Brodziak was the name I came up with, but I was indifferent to him leaving at the time.

Maybe Cullen.

 

[Minnesnota]

I think before we talk about trading any players away, we have to evaluate the health of the team and ask some questions like: without making any changes to the team, are they capable of going past the 2nd round of the playoffs? Are they capable of winning the Stanley Cup? Who represents the future of the team? Who do they build around? What does the depth look like in the minors?

I think they are capable of going past the 2nd round of the playoffs, but they have the Twins syndrome. Good season team, run up against a better playoff team and fold. They have been bounced out of the 1st round now more times than the 2nd round. There hasn't been a significant change to the core since Suter/Parise were brought on, we've just added pieces that have all fizzled out in some fashion on another.

I think ultimately the first discussion you have is with Koivu. His contract is up after next year and we need to know how long is he committed for, for how much, but also is he still worth building the team around? He had a resurgence this year, but like the team, didn't have that great of a post-season. The question is was this a fluke? Or was this a second wind?

You bring up some great points. Here are some of my thoughts:

1) I don't think the current Wild team is capable of making it past the second round and the team has done absolutely nothing to prove to anyone otherwise. This is now the 5th straight season where the Wild have been bounced in the 1st or 2nd round (and with relative ease each time).

2) I'm willing to give BB a 2nd season to fully put a stamp on this team - but I think we see a pretty serious regression next season. Every off season is the same, asking ourselves questions about how to get rid of X players contract because they're old and don't perform.

3) Emphasis needs to be put on building around the current "young" core of the team. Nino, Coyle, Granlund, are the 3 major pieces, followed by Zucker, Brodin, Dumba.

I am not a believer in Granlund and I think there should be some very serious consideration to move him in a package for a younger bonafide 1C or high end center prospect (Mathew Barzal, Top 2 draft pick this year, etc).

I understand moving Granlund is an unpopular opinion around these parts, but it would:

- Allow the Wild to protect 4 defensemen
- Free up roughly $6m in cap space
- Wild have a log jam of winger prospects (Kaprizov, Tuch, Greenway, Lucia, Sokolov)

Now people may say, what if Pominville is moved? What if Zucker gets taken by Vegas? We can't work on assumptions like that.

This team needs to embrace going younger, full stop.

 

[Victorious Secret]

I am not a believer in Granlund and I think there should be some very serious consideration to move him in a package for a younger bonafide 1C or high end center prospect (Mathew Barzal, Top 2 draft pick this year, etc).

If you think Barzal is a higher end option than Granlund you have another thing coming.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I don't believe that we're very much different from Nashville, Anaheim or Ottawa, if at all; so yes, I think that this group can make it to a conference final or Cup final. We've them play extended periods of excellent hockey, and we've seen Dubnyk have extended periods of lights-out play; if those things lined up at the right time(s), I think we'd be right in the mix.

 

[Minnesnota]

If you think Barzal is a higher end option than Granlund you have another thing coming.

3rd (1.93) in points per game in the WHL this season, right hand shot, 2-way center, 20 years old. Plays a game very similar to Joe Thornton.

I said "high end center prospect". Don't put words in my mouth, thanks.

Granlund isn't some world beater so I'm not sure why so many here act like he's this teams savior.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

3rd (1.93) in points per game in the WHL this season, right hand shot, 2-way center, 20 years old. Plays a game very similar to Joe Thornton.

I said "high end center prospect". Don't put words in my mouth, thanks.

Granlund isn't some world beater so I'm not sure why so many here act like he's this teams savior.

Nobody acts like he's a savior; most act like he's our 25 year old leading scorer.

 

[Minnesnota]

Nobody acts like he's a savior; most act like he's our 25 year old leading scorer.

Yes, the teams leading scorer who had a shooting percentage double that of his career average while playing on the league's highest PDO line.

Do people realistically expect that to be repeated?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yes, the teams leading scorer who had a shooting percentage double that of his career average while playing on the league's highest PDO line.

Do people realistically expect that to be repeated?

I don't expect him to drop back down into the 40's.

 

[Wabit]

I don't believe that we're very much different from Nashville, Anaheim or Ottawa, if at all; so yes, I think that this group can make it to a conference final or Cup final. We've them play extended periods of excellent hockey, and we've seen Dubnyk have extended periods of lights-out play; if those things lined up at the right time(s), I think we'd be right in the mix.

The Ducks, Preds, and Sens are all bigger physically, and play a more physical aspect to their game.

The small Wild lineup and lack of physical play catches up to them in the Playoffs. The Ducks and the Sens have 800 more hits than the Wild (1284 team total, 29th in the league) did for the season. Even the Preds had 376 more hits for the season. The Wild don't even make up for it in the form of blocked shots (15th in the league).

A one or two smaller players you can get away with, but the Wild relay on 4 under 6' players to play big roles on the team. They don't have the counterbalance of a couple of Clutterbuck types.

Playing "pretty" hockey works fine in the regular season, but in the Playoffs it doesn't; unless there is top-end (Hawks teams that won it all) talent on the team. The Wild don't have that type of talent.

Brodin might put an actual hit on someone once ever 4 games, Spurgeon and Scandella about every other game. Folin had more hits in his limited games than all the Dmen except Suter (3 more) and Dumba.

A more physical team all around is needed if the Wild ever want to go anywhere past the 2nd round.

Wild had 2 players with over 100 hits (Nino 120, Coyle 101), 1 in the 90s
-OTT: 8 players over 100 hits, top of 364
-Pit: 7 players with over 100 hits, 2 of them over 200 hits
-Nash: 5 players with over 100 hits, a couple more in the 90s
-ANA: 6 players with over 100 hits, 2 in the 200s, a couple more in the 90s

The 4 (Flames, SJS, Wild, Hawks) least physical teams in this year's Playoffs won a combined 3 games.

 

[Wabit]

Yes, the teams leading scorer who had a shooting percentage double that of his career average while playing on the league's highest PDO line.

Do people realistically expect that to be repeated?

In fairness to Granlund, his s% is skewed some by the 4 ENG he scored this year, it did bump up the s% and extra 2%.

I think he's a 50-60p player next season (full healthy season). Nino and Coyle still have more to their games, so they could help offset a slight regression.

But if the Wild were to get a pure scorer for Granny, he could be a PPG player racking up the assists and rebound type goals.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I don't believe that we're very much different from Nashville, Anaheim or Ottawa, if at all; so yes, I think that this group can make it to a conference final or Cup final. We've them play extended periods of excellent hockey, and we've seen Dubnyk have extended periods of lights-out play; if those things lined up at the right time(s), I think we'd be right in the mix.

Each team made a significant change to their core; Anaheim traded Bobby Ryan, Frederick Andersen, Luca Sbisa, Ottawa traded Jason Spezza, Nashville traded Shea Weber. These teams traded a huge chunk of their core, because they understood they needed a shakeup. Minnesota is in the same spot. Will they make such a change?