Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXIII

[AKL]

Okposo literally falls into the category of last players we need. Overpaid, underperforming old wingers that don’t move the needle.

We need to trade 2-3 of our wingers so we have less of them. Doesn’t make sense to acquire more in the trades.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Okposo literally falls into the category of last players we need. Overpaid, underperforming old wingers that don’t move the needle.

We need to trade 2-3 of our wingers so we have less of them. Doesn’t make sense to acquire more in the trades.

could get Scandella back and track brodin. not a huge upgrade but Scandella is more physical and offensive.

 

[AKL]

could get Scandella back and track brodin. not a huge upgrade but Scandella is more physical and offensive.

Huge fan of Scandella, but the only way this makes any sense is if Brodin is traded first, and Scandella is added in addition to the picks/prospects to even out any salary.

 

[HaNotsri]

I think Okposo's probably the last problem we need.

I'm pretty lukewarm on Mittetstadt personally, at least as a center. Not sure how others feel about him at this point.

Okposo was more of a scorched earth rebuild kind of option. You’d get a premium to take him and he would play his heart out for you guys while you tank.

Scandella looks like his old self, ufa after this year so you could probably get him for free then but it would make sense for Buffalo to trade him if we upgrade our lhd. In a vacuum he is our 4th best lhd right now.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Huge fan of Scandella, but the only way this makes any sense is if Brodin is traded first, and Scandella is added in addition to the picks/prospects to even out any salary.

oh I agree, it would be 2 separate trades like brodin to montreal for poehling and a pick (which I think some mtl fans offered randomly) then we go get Scandella and a pick or good prospect for zucker.

 

[Bazeek]

Okposo was more of a scorched earth rebuild kind of option. You’d get a premium to take him and he would play his heart out for you guys while you tank.

Scandella looks like his old self, ufa after this year so you could probably get him for free then but it would make sense for Buffalo to trade him if we upgrade our lhd. In a vacuum he is our 4th best lhd right now.

I am not entirely against Okposo for Parise.

 

[AKL]

I am not entirely against Okposo for Parise.

Cap recapture still looms. Risky to move him. The buyout after 2021-22 isn’t that bad and that’s still a year sooner than Okposo’s ends.

 

[Bazeek]

Cap recapture still looms. Risky to move him. The buyout after 2021-22 isn’t that bad and that’s still a year sooner than Okposo’s ends.

Damn you, cap recapture.

 

[AKL]

Damn you, cap recapture.

Personally hoping he LTIRetires in March or April of the 2020-21 season.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Mittelsadt is a good guy to target with Brodin and JEE going the other way as base.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does anybody know and/or can somebody post what the recapture penalties would be if retired here or retired after he was traded? Maybe even for each year remaining? It would be nice to have some sort of number to wrap my head around.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Are we assuming Parise has cratered at this point and there is no hope of him playing his way out of this funk? I'm legit curious as I haven't watched a lot yet but from what I am hearing and reading between the lines is that he lost not only a step from last year but possibly 2-3 steps.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Does anybody know and/or can somebody post what the recapture penalties would be if retired here or retired after he was traded? Maybe even for each year remaining? It would be nice to have some sort of number to wrap my head around.

I couldn't find a nice breakdown by year but I found this from a 'cap recapture' article from 2017 which was looking at players league wide.

"Parise (33) and Suter (32) still have eight seasons remaining on their respective deals. If one of them retires in 2020, the cap recapture is over $3.9 million for each of the remaining years. If one or both retire in 2021, it jumps to over $5 million annually."

 

[AKL]

Does anybody know and/or can somebody post what the recapture penalties would be if retired here or retired after he was traded? Maybe even for each year remaining? It would be nice to have some sort of number to wrap my head around.

From my understanding....

This assumes he plays out the rest of this season. Right now his cap benefit is roughly 19.2M. Which means we've paid him 19.2M more in cash than his cap hit has added up to for the years he's been here.
If he retires after this season, that 19.2M will be divided by the number of remaining years on his contract (5), giving us a dead cap hit of 3.84 for those years.

If he retires after 2020-21 it's 4.9M for the final four years.

If he retires after 2021-22 it's 6.1M for the final three years

If he retires after 2022-23 it's 6.35M for the final two years

If he retires after 2023-24 it's 6.2M for the final year

If we trade him, the net cap benefit stops moving for us, but will be divided by the number of years he had left to hit us.

So if we trade him after this season with a cap benefit of 19.2M for us, and he plays for that team until after 2022-23, and retires with two years left on his contract, that 19.2M will be divided by 2 and we'll have that dead cap penalty against us for those final two years. So that would be 9.6M per season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Does anybody know and/or can somebody post what the recapture penalties would be if retired here or retired after he was traded? Maybe even for each year remaining? It would be nice to have some sort of number to wrap my head around.

And a follow up question: is it possible for he and the Wild to mutually terminate his contract, thereby negating any recapture and allowing him to be a UFA. Obviously he'd be giving up some money, but after this season, he's owed $18M so maybe if he thought he could get ~$10M of that back playing in a "better situation" he'd be amenable to it?

 

[StateofCelly]

Are we assuming Parise has cratered at this point and there is no hope of him playing his way out of this funk? I'm legit curious as I haven't watched a lot yet but from what I am hearing and reading between the lines is that he lost not only a step from last year but possibly 2-3 steps.

It is like hes on the rink with plastic shoes instead of sharpened skates. Feet just aren't moving. So not only speed, but for a guy who makes his living planted in front of the net, its like hes just behind on everything. That goal Mayhew scored would have been a typical Parise type rebound, but anymore hes stuck churning his feet and never gets around to the open side of the net.

 

[AKL]

And a follow up question: is it possible for he and the Wild to mutually terminate his contract, thereby negating any recapture and allowing him to be a UFA. Obviously he'd be giving up some money, but after this season, he's owed $18M so maybe if he thought he could get ~$10M of that back playing in a "better situation" he'd be amenable to it?

Not that I know of. The only way to get out of a contract completely is a buy out.

Our best option for him is that he LTIRetires ASAP
Second best is we buy him out in the 2022 buyout window (I think this is the best year?)
Him retiring with us would technically save us cap space, but we'd also have a significant cap penalty for the duration of his contract, so it's not really a good option
Trading him isn't an option, at all

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I couldn't find a nice breakdown by year but I found this from a 'cap recapture' article from 2017 which was looking at players league wide.

"Parise (33) and Suter (32) still have eight seasons remaining on their respective deals. If one of them retires in 2020, the cap recapture is over $3.9 million for each of the remaining years. If one or both retire in 2021, it jumps to over $5 million annually."

From my understanding....

This assumes he plays out the rest of this season. Right now his cap benefit is roughly 19.2M. Which means we've paid him 19.2M more in cash than his cap hit has added up to for the years he's been here.
If he retires after this season, that 19.2M will be divided by the number of remaining years on his contract (5), giving us a dead cap hit of 3.84 for those years.

If he retires after 2020-21 it's 4.9M for the final four years.

If he retires after 2021-22 it's 6.1M for the final three years

If he retires after 2022-23 it's 6.35M for the final two years

If he retires after 2023-24 it's 6.2M for the final year

If we trade him, the net cap benefit stops moving for us, but will be divided by the number of years he had left to hit us.

So if we trade him after this season with a cap benefit of 19.2M for us, and he plays for that team until after 2022-23, and retires with two years left on his contract, that 19.2M will be divided by 2 and we'll have that dead cap penalty against us for those final two years. So that would be 9.6M per season.

Many thanks.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Not that I know of. The only way to get out of a contract completely is a buy out.

Our best option for him is that he LTIRetires ASAP
Second best is we buy him out in the 2022 buyout window (I think this is the best year?)
Him retiring with us would technically save us cap space, but we'd also have a significant cap penalty for the duration of his contract, so it's not really a good option
Trading him isn't an option, at all

I thought NJ and Kovalchuk did something like it, or the Kings and Richards? Maybe not.

 

[AKL]

I thought NJ and Kovalchuk did something like it, or the Kings and Richards? Maybe not.

Kovalchuk retired, but the cap benefit for the four years he was there was only 4M. NJ is paying a 300k per season recap penalty until 2024-25.

Coming back from Russia, NJ had to give permission for him to speak with other teams, I believe. And Kovalchuk had to wait X number of years before he could.

I'm not familiar with what happened with the Kings and Mike Richards, so maybe there's something there.

 

[Bazeek]

I couldn't find a nice breakdown by year but I found this from a 'cap recapture' article from 2017 which was looking at players league wide.

"Parise (33) and Suter (32) still have eight seasons remaining on their respective deals. If one of them retires in 2020, the cap recapture is over $3.9 million for each of the remaining years. If one or both retire in 2021, it jumps to over $5 million annually."

I'm skeptical of those numbers, but I might be missing something. It's hard to find anyone actually showing their work on this.

I'll take a swing at it. I don't think this is entirely correct, but at least it's something to point at.

The core of the whole thing is the "Cap Benefit," which is the cumulative difference between the contract's cap hit and actual salary. This Net Benefit is highest right as the relationship switches and the cap hits are higher than the actual salary, but beyond that the CB turns negative and the Net CB declines until it hits zero at the end of the contract. So Parise retiring at the inflection point in 2021 would incur the worst penalty, while retiring near the end of the contract in 2023 wouldn't be all that bad.

With all that said, here's my crack at the numbers.

Season	Age	Salary	Cap Hit	Cap benefit	Net Cap Benefit	Years remaining	Annual penalty	… in millions
2012-13	28	11,170,732	7,538,462	3,632,270	3,632,270	13	279405.3846	0.279405385
2013-14	29	12000000	7,538,462	4,461,538	8,093,808	12	674484	0.674484
2014-15	30	11000000	7,538,462	3,461,538	11,555,346	11	1050486	1.050486
2015-16	31	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	13,016,884	10	1301688.4	1.3016884
2016-17	32	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	14,478,422	9	1608713.556	1.608713556
2017-18	33	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	15,939,960	8	1992495	1.992495
2018-19	34	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	17,401,498	7	2485928.286	2.485928286
2019-20	35	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	18,863,036	6	3143839.333	3.143839333
2020-21	36	8000000	7,538,462	461,538	19,324,574	5	3864914.8	3.8649148
2021-22	37	6000000	7,538,462	-1,538,462	17,786,112	4	4446528	4.446528
2022-23	38	2000000	7,538,462	-5,538,462	12,247,650	3	4082550	4.08255
2023-24	39	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	5,709,188	2	2854594	2.854594
2024-25	40	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	-829,274	1	-829274	-0.829274

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(Note that the final Net Cap Benefit isn't 0 because the sum of the cap hits doesn't equal the sum of the yearly salaries. This might be because of the bonus structure in the early years. I don't think it changes things much, though)

So going by this, if Parise retired in 2021 we'd be hit with a penalty of $3.86m for 5 years.

I've also seen references to a "max recapture period", but I'm not sure where that comes from. As I understand it the idea is that this is the max number of years that the net recapture penalty can be spread over. So if, say, the max recapture period is 2 years and Parise retires in 2021 with a net benefit of $19.3m, the cap hit would be ~$9.7m for 2 years. I'm not sure if this is really a thing, though.

Smart people, point out what's wrong here.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Kovalchuk retired, but the cap benefit for the four years he was there was only 4M. NJ is paying a 300k per season recap penalty until 2024-25.

Coming back from Russia, NJ had to give permission for him to speak with other teams, I believe. And Kovalchuk had to wait X number of years before he could.

I'm not familiar with what happened with the Kings and Mike Richards, so maybe there's something there.

You're probably right.

 

[AKL]

I'm skeptical of those numbers, but I might be missing something. It's hard to find anyone actually showing their work on this.

I'll take a swing at it. I don't think this is entirely correct, but at least it's something to point at.

The core of the whole thing is the "Cap Benefit," which is the cumulative difference between the contract's cap hit and actual salary. This Net Benefit is highest right as the relationship switches and the cap hits are higher than the actual salary, but beyond that the CB turns negative and the Net CB declines until it hits zero at the end of the contract. So Parise retiring at the inflection point in 2021 would incur the worst penalty, while retiring near the end of the contract in 2023 wouldn't be all that bad.

With all that said, here's my crack at the numbers.

Season	Age	Salary	Cap Hit	Cap benefit	Net Cap Benefit	Years remaining	Annual penalty	… in millions
2012-13	28	11,170,732	7,538,462	3,632,270	3,632,270	13	279405.3846	0.279405385
2013-14	29	12000000	7,538,462	4,461,538	8,093,808	12	674484	0.674484
2014-15	30	11000000	7,538,462	3,461,538	11,555,346	11	1050486	1.050486
2015-16	31	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	13,016,884	10	1301688.4	1.3016884
2016-17	32	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	14,478,422	9	1608713.556	1.608713556
2017-18	33	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	15,939,960	8	1992495	1.992495
2018-19	34	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	17,401,498	7	2485928.286	2.485928286
2019-20	35	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	18,863,036	6	3143839.333	3.143839333
2020-21	36	8000000	7,538,462	461,538	19,324,574	5	3864914.8	3.8649148
2021-22	37	6000000	7,538,462	-1,538,462	17,786,112	4	4446528	4.446528
2022-23	38	2000000	7,538,462	-5,538,462	12,247,650	3	4082550	4.08255
2023-24	39	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	5,709,188	2	2854594	2.854594
2024-25	40	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	-829,274	1	-829274	-0.829274

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(Note that the final Net Cap Benefit isn't 0 because the sum of the cap hits doesn't equal the sum of the yearly salaries. This might be because of the bonus structure in the early years. I don't think it changes things much, though)

So going by this, if Parise retired in 2021 we'd be hit with a penalty of $3.86m for 5 years.

I've also seen references to a "max recapture period", but I'm not sure where that comes from. As I understand it the idea is that this is the max number of years that the net recapture penalty can be spread over. So if, say, the max recapture period is 2 years and Parise retires in 2021 with a net benefit of $19.3m, the cap hit would be ~$9.7m for 2 years. I'm not sure if this is really a thing, though.

Smart people, point out what's wrong here.

Cap benefit is kept as a running total of the difference between cumulative cap hit and salary paid. Max possible CRP is whatever the highest possible number we could be hit with. Max possible CRP period is the number of years we’d be hit with that max possible CRP if that’s what ended up happening. So his max possible CRP is 6.35ish roughly based on my post above, and that would require him to retire after 2022-23, which would be with two years left on his contract, making the max CRP 2 years.

But whenever he retires, the cap benefit at that point (again, kept as a running total) will be divided by the number of years he has left on his contract and count as dead cap for that duration.

 

[Bazeek]

Cap benefit is kept as a running total of the difference between cumulative cap hit and salary paid. Max possible CRP is whatever the highest possible number we could be hit with. Max possible CRP period is the number of years we’d be hit with that max possible CRP if that’s what ended up happening. So his max possible CRP is 6.35ish roughly based on my post above, and that would require him to retire after 2022-23, which would be with two years left on his contract, making the max CRP 2 years.

But whenever he retires, the cap benefit at that point (again, kept as a running total) will be divided by the number of years he has left on his contract and count as dead cap for that duration.

I get the Cap Benefit being a running total (which is the Net Cap Benefit column in the table above), but I'm lost as to where the $6.35m comes from.

 

[AKL]

I get the Cap Benefit being a running total (which is the Net Cap Benefit column in the table above), but I'm lost as to where the $6.35m comes from.

The cap benefit after the 2022-23 season would be down to roughly 13M after a season or two of the cap hit being higher than the salary.

It’s 19.2M after this season

2020-21 he makes 8M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes to 19.7.

2021-22 he makes 6M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes down to 18.2.

2022-23 he makes 2M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes down to 12.7.

If he retires here, 12.7 divided by the two years he has left is a 6.35M per season penalty for those two years.