Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXIII

[Bazeek]

The cap benefit after the 2022-23 season would be down to roughly 13M after a season or two of the cap hit being higher than the salary.

It’s 19.2M after this season

2020-21 he makes 8M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes to 19.7.

2021-22 he makes 6M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes down to 18.2.

2022-23 he makes 2M but cap hit is 7.5, CB goes down to 12.7.

If he retires here, 12.7 divided by the two years he has left is a 6.35M per season penalty for those two years.

I must have my Years Remaining skewed then. If I shift them up a year I think it lines up with what you're saying:

Season	Age	Salary	Cap Hit	Cap benefit	Net Cap Benefit	Years remaining	Annual penalty	… in millions
2012-13	28	11,170,732	7,538,462	3,632,270	3,632,270	12	302689.1667	0.302689167
2013-14	29	12000000	7,538,462	4,461,538	8,093,808	11	735800.7273	0.735800727
2014-15	30	11000000	7,538,462	3,461,538	11,555,346	10	1155534.6	1.1555346
2015-16	31	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	13,016,884	9	1446320.444	1.446320444
2016-17	32	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	14,478,422	8	1809802.75	1.80980275
2017-18	33	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	15,939,960	7	2277137.143	2.277137143
2018-19	34	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	17,401,498	6	2900249.667	2.900249667
2019-20	35	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	18,863,036	5	3772607.2	3.7726072
2020-21	36	8000000	7,538,462	461,538	19,324,574	4	4831143.5	4.8311435
2021-22	37	6000000	7,538,462	-1,538,462	17,786,112	3	5928704	5.928704
2022-23	38	2000000	7,538,462	-5,538,462	12,247,650	2	6123825	6.123825
2023-24	39	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	5,709,188	1	5709188	5.709188
2024-25	40	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	-829,274	0	NA	NA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[AKL]

I must have my Years Remaining skewed then. If I shift them up a year I think it lines up with what you're saying:

Season	Age	Salary	Cap Hit	Cap benefit	Net Cap Benefit	Years remaining	Annual penalty	… in millions
2012-13	28	11,170,732	7,538,462	3,632,270	3,632,270	12	302689.1667	0.302689167
2013-14	29	12000000	7,538,462	4,461,538	8,093,808	11	735800.7273	0.735800727
2014-15	30	11000000	7,538,462	3,461,538	11,555,346	10	1155534.6	1.1555346
2015-16	31	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	13,016,884	9	1446320.444	1.446320444
2016-17	32	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	14,478,422	8	1809802.75	1.80980275
2017-18	33	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	15,939,960	7	2277137.143	2.277137143
2018-19	34	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	17,401,498	6	2900249.667	2.900249667
2019-20	35	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	18,863,036	5	3772607.2	3.7726072
2020-21	36	8000000	7,538,462	461,538	19,324,574	4	4831143.5	4.8311435
2021-22	37	6000000	7,538,462	-1,538,462	17,786,112	3	5928704	5.928704
2022-23	38	2000000	7,538,462	-5,538,462	12,247,650	2	6123825	6.123825
2023-24	39	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	5,709,188	1	5709188	5.709188
2024-25	40	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	-829,274	0	NA	NA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah that looks correct. I'm rounding to the hundred thousands so your numbers are going to be more accurate and precise.

 

[Bazeek]

Yeah that looks correct. I'm rounding to the hundred thousands so your numbers are going to be more accurate and precise.

I think Sportrac's salary numbers are just off for the first year for some reason. They list the contract total as $98m but the total of all salary/bonuses listed is only ~$97.2m. If I round the first year up to an even $12m it all falls into place.

Season	Age	Salary	Cap Hit	Cap benefit	Net Cap Benefit	Years remaining	Annual penalty	… in millions
2012-13	28	12,000,000	7,538,462	4,461,538	4,461,538	12	371794.8333	0.371794833
2013-14	29	12000000	7,538,462	4,461,538	8,923,076	11	811188.7273	0.811188727
2014-15	30	11000000	7,538,462	3,461,538	12,384,614	10	1238461.4	1.2384614
2015-16	31	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	13,846,152	9	1538461.333	1.538461333
2016-17	32	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	15,307,690	8	1913461.25	1.91346125
2017-18	33	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	16,769,228	7	2395604	2.395604
2018-19	34	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	18,230,766	6	3038461	3.038461
2019-20	35	9000000	7,538,462	1,461,538	19,692,304	5	3938460.8	3.9384608
2020-21	36	8000000	7,538,462	461,538	20,153,842	4	5038460.5	5.0384605
2021-22	37	6000000	7,538,462	-1,538,462	18,615,380	3	6205126.667	6.205126667
2022-23	38	2000000	7,538,462	-5,538,462	13,076,918	2	6538459	6.538459
2023-24	39	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	6,538,456	1	6538456	6.538456
2024-25	40	1000000	7,538,462	-6,538,462	-6	0	NA	NA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Wabit]

Does anybody know and/or can somebody post what the recapture penalties would be if retired here or retired after he was traded? Maybe even for each year remaining? It would be nice to have some sort of number to wrap my head around.

Here's an old Weber article from when the Weber/PK trade happened. It's in the ballpark of what a Parise or Suter recapture would be if they were traded this summer.

Weber for Subban could hurt Preds in long run

 

[Bazeek]

Here's an old Weber article from when the Weber/PK trade happened. It's in the ballpark of what a Parise or Suter recapture would be if they were traded this summer.

Weber for Subban could hurt Preds in long run

Ah... so if Parise's traded before we hit those years where Cap Hit > Salary, the net cap benefit never has a chance to go down and we're saddled with the whole $18m-$20m (or whatever it happens to be at the time of the trade).

 

[AKL]

Ah... so if Parise's traded before we hit those years where Cap Hit > Salary, the net cap benefit never has a chance to go down and we're saddled with the whole $18m-$20m (or whatever it happens to be at the time of the trade).

Precisely. So the sooner we trade him the more potential for a horrible recap penalty. If we trade him and he retires a year later it’s not as bad, but if we trade him and he plays through 2023-24, we’re going to have a 19M cap penalty that next year.

 

[Bazeek]

It's tempting to trade Suter and Parise in 2021 just for the opportunity to see what a team with $40m in dead cap space looks like.

 

[Wabit]

Ah... so if Parise's traded before we hit those years where Cap Hit > Salary, the net cap benefit never has a chance to go down and we're saddled with the whole $18m-$20m (or whatever it happens to be at the time of the trade).

Correct.

 

[AKL]

We could always hope that if we somehow do trade him, that team ends up LTIRetiring him, but that carries all the risks that that doesn’t happen.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So if we keep him and he retires because he's grumpy or something, no matter when, it really doesn't mean much because he'd be replaced by a 4th liner or and ELC and either of them plus his recapture, at worst, is about equal to what his current cap hit is right now anyway?

 

[AKL]

So if we keep him and he retires because he's grumpy or something, no matter when, it really doesn't mean much because he'd be replaced by a 4th liner or and ELC and either of them plus his recapture, at worst, is about equal to what his current cap hit is right now anyway?

Actually if he retires now, a 4th liner and his penalty would probably be about 2.5M cheaper than he is now. But ultimately yes, no matter when he retires, if he does it with us, a 4th liner and his penalty would never be more than his current hit.