Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumours (Mod warning OP)

[Hunter368]

I agree that Chevy is not looking to move Pionk - but if the return for Laine features a better RHD then he probably goes the other way. If it doesn't return a better 1st pair RHD then why we are moving Laine?

There could be a list of reasons to move Laine that have nothing to do with RHD upgrade, as fans we just don't know the potential list.

I would stated that as, if we don't upgrade our RHD why even move Pionk.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

All good points, still don't do it myself but I can see why many would.

I wouldn't be inclined to do it either. It is a scenario that comes up when/if players force the teams to make moves. Like I said earlier, both teams would do it with regret. In that case it looks pretty balanced

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually, you don't know that - it was exactly my point. You see all this potential with Laine but others may not. In fact, they may see it in other players that you don't. It's potential and nothing more - meaningless until it happens. I was throwing KC out there only as an example of how we may all see the future a little differently.

Yes, it's fun to speculate - but some might not agree with what is being speculated - at that point, it then becomes a debate like all others on this board - which can be fun if handled properly and we don't take ourselves to seriously. We all want to play - but we may not all agree.

Of course we may not all agree. Pretty boring site if we did. Very often there is a general agreement but differing opinions on degree. We all agree Laine has potential, some see it as more than others do.

But I do know that "Laine may never reach his potential, but it is quite a lot higher than KC's". That has been shown already, quite clearly. But we could have KC achieving his potential and Laine not achieving his. If potential is meaningless then so is having higher draft picks. But talking about potential, we are talking about estimates of what that is based on what players have done in the past. What they have done is a matter of fact. Exactly what potential that history indicates is a matter of opinion.

In the particular case we are talking about here, I proposed a hypothetical situation. If someone doesn't like discussing hypotheticals he can say that. If he simply doesn't like the specific criteria, he can say that. Or he can respond to the question as proposed. Simply ignoring the criteria and responding as though they didn't exist leads to a breakdown in communication.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree completely - or almost completely. I'd reverse your last sentence -

Some.
Some others, it would be exactly reversed. So I agree with your disagreement.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There could be a list of reasons to move Laine that have nothing to do with RHD upgrade, as fans we just don't know the potential list.

I would stated that as, if we don't upgrade our RHD why even move Pionk.

That would be valid also.

I don't see a long list of reasons to move a player. Either it is because you are being pressured/forced to move him or it is because you believe you can improve your roster by moving him. I suppose you could break those down into sub-categories if you wish, but it will come down to 1 or the other of those 2 in the end.

I'm assuming that Laine is not forcing his way out until I see more definite indication of that. So the remaining reason is improving the roster. If 2C is fixed, that leaves 1RD to take care of. If we get a 1RD, Pionk becomes surplus. DeMelo plays 2nd pair. Pionk has too big a contract for 3rd pair and a raise coming.

OTOH, if we are not getting an upgrade on RHD why move either Laine or Pionk?

 

[Buffdog]

Of course we may not all agree. Pretty boring site if we did. Very often there is a general agreement but differing opinions on degree. We all agree Laine has potential, some see it as more than others do.

But I do know that "Laine may never reach his potential, but it is quite a lot higher than KC's". That has been shown already, quite clearly. But we could have KC achieving his potential and Laine not achieving his. If potential is meaningless then so is having higher draft picks. But talking about potential, we are talking about estimates of what that is based on what players have done in the past. What they have done is a matter of fact. Exactly what potential that history indicates is a matter of opinion.

In the particular case we are talking about here, I proposed a hypothetical situation. If someone doesn't like discussing hypotheticals he can say that. If he simply doesn't like the specific criteria, he can say that. Or he can respond to the question as proposed. Simply ignoring the criteria and responding as though they didn't exist leads to a breakdown in communication.

I think laine's potential is somewhere between "a poor man's brett hull" (soft, one dimensional player who scores goals, but never to that level) and a "poor man's ovechkin" (a guy who plays physically, is intense, and scores goals but never to that level).

If I had to guess, the jets are trying to turn him into the latter

 

[Hunter368]

That would be valid also.

I don't see a long list of reasons to move a player. Either it is because you are being pressured/forced to move him or it is because you believe you can improve your roster by moving him. I suppose you could break those down into sub-categories if you wish, but it will come down to 1 or the other of those 2 in the end.

I'm assuming that Laine is not forcing his way out until I see more definite indication of that. So the remaining reason is improving the roster. If 2C is fixed, that leaves 1RD to take care of. If we get a 1RD, Pionk becomes surplus. DeMelo plays 2nd pair. Pionk has too big a contract for 3rd pair and a raise coming.

OTOH, if we are not getting an upgrade on RHD why move either Laine or Pionk?

As you said, those are two very board reasons to move Laine and could be broken down into a longer list of potential sub reasons why.

I agree no reason to move Pionk unless you’re getting a upgrade. I would say there is still a list of potential reasons to move Laine having nothing to do with a RHD upgrade. Of course one potential outcome to moving Laine is a RHD upgrade, but also other reasons why and possible outcomes that ha e nothing to do with any RHD upgrades.

I think we’re saying the same thing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup, COVID will effect cap spending, trade values and salary asks from players. Weird times, also not ideal times to trade (forced or otherwise) a big ticket player and not ideal times to have one year left in your “prove it” type of contract bc the pot of gold at the end is now smaller regardless how you perform.

Covid is going to affect a lot of things for some time to come. It is pretty hard to anticipate all of the effects from here but it is going to change just about every aspect of our society in some way, to some degree, for some time.

The NHL is going to have to cope with at least 2 years of very significant revenue loss and probably 2-3 years more of, I hope, lesser losses. Players, agents, managements are all figuring this out step by step as it evolves.

I was a little surprised at how small the effects appeared to be this off-season. It was certainly bad timing for players reaching UFA this year though. It will be interesting to see the effects next off-season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah a 3 or 4 year deal seems like the most logical path to take for both parties. Gets Laine to UFA while he is 26-27 and for the team he's under contract for the Scheifele, Helle, Wheeler years.

3 seems a little short to me. 4 or 5 might be more like it. But the term there will depend on how much AAV Jets are willing to give at this point. Whichever number, we have to remember to add 1 from the current contract.

3 covers Scheif/Helle/ Wheeler, but I think we need to have the last year as the time to trade him if we can't extend him at that time. I would really hate to see him walk after 4 years.

 

[Hunter368]

Covid is going to affect a lot of things for some time to come. It is pretty hard to anticipate all of the effects from here but it is going to change just about every aspect of our society in some way, to some degree, for some time.

The NHL is going to have to cope with at least 2 years of very significant revenue loss and probably 2-3 years more of, I hope, lesser losses. Players, agents, managements are all figuring this out step by step as it evolves.

I was a little surprised at how small the effects appeared to be this off-season. It was certainly bad timing for players reaching UFA this year though. It will be interesting to see the effects next off-season.

Agreed

We did see the top UFA defencmen take a pay cut, plus we have lots of guys still with no contracts, plus we did see few RFA take I think slightly shorter deals then normal (maybe), etc.

All I know if I’m a player I would hate to sign any deals this offseason or next b/c it’s going to negatively affect your deal in either term, cap hit, trade restrictions or all the above.

 

[buggs]

Actually I see Connor scoring more goals career wise than Laine. Goals are mostly scored in very close range to the net and this is were Connor scores goals. Laine scores long range and he would need to have somewhere in the 17-18% shooting % range unless he dramatically ups his shot total. For some reason the HFJets fan base has soured on their own Guy Lafleur. Not the most complete player but a guy who will likely have multiple 40-50 goal seasons and hit 500 by the time he retires.

This seems a bit hyperbolic? Not the Lafleur part, though that remains to be seen. The souring on Connor? Who's sour on Connor? I honestly don't think I've seen anything really negative on him from anyone here other than perhaps to call his defensive skill into question, which is fair, and almost always is related to Laine's lack of defensive prowess as well.

The Connor vs Laine seems to be a discussion more of the ceiling they achieve in the end. Connor is what he is, which is pretty much as you describe. I'm thrilled he fell in the draft and thrilled he is on this team, signed long term.

Laine on the other hand may indeed be what he is at the moment. On the other hand his physical game, which compared to Connor, he has much more of, is incomplete at this point. That's not a knock on Connor in any way other than to say Connor doesn't seem to have much of a mean streak and isn't inclined to play the body. His size sort of doesn't allow for it. His (Connor's) filthy hands make up for it. Laine though may yet turn into a true power forward, bringing skills to the table that we've only seen flashes of at this point. My viewing on Laine's potential isn't so much that he's going to be Ovi 2.0, though that would be nice. Rather it's that he's going to bring more to the table as he matures, likely including better 'on the fly' offense and a better ability to battle down low. With that should come scoring that's not just long range.

As a knock on Laine he seems to need a particular type of center to excel. He just had no chemistry with Little unfortunately. But I do get excited about the notion of playing with a Statsny now and possibly a Perfetti down the road. If Perfetti can become an effective NHL center then Laine may benefit tremendously. Maybe Laine thrives with those two moving forward. Maybe we should just keep the stud winger that fell into our laps, assuming he and his agent grasp the flat cap/Covid realities.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think laine's potential is somewhere between "a poor man's brett hull" (soft, one dimensional player who scores goals, but never to that level) and a "poor man's ovechkin" (a guy who plays physically, is intense, and scores goals but never to that level).

If I had to guess, the jets are trying to turn him into the latter

Yeah, that sounds about right to me, good comps. I think that if you adjust for era, he might be right on Brett Hull, rather than saying "never to that level". In raw numbers that is probably correct, but Hull played in a higher scoring era.

When he was drafted and even after his rookie season, it looked like Laine might be all the way to Ovechkin rather than a poor man's version. The years since have lowered expectations a bit to that "poor man's" version.

I find a little confusion between talking about a players potential and our expectations for the player. They are similar, but not exactly the same things. His potential is a real thing, but it can't be pinned down precisely. We are all talking about our estimates of his potential. So in Laine's case, his potential is Ovechkin. Our expectation of him is Hull.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As you said, those are two very board reasons to move Laine and could be broken down into a longer list of potential sub reasons why.

I agree no reason to move Pionk unless you’re getting a upgrade. I would say there is still a list of potential reasons to move Laine having nothing to do with a RHD upgrade. Of course one potential outcome to moving Laine is a RHD upgrade, but also other reasons why and possible outcomes that ha e nothing to do with any RHD upgrades.

I think we’re saying the same thing.

Close enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed

We did see the top UFA defencmen take a pay cut, plus we have lots of guys still with no contracts, plus we did see few RFA take I think slightly shorter deals then normal (maybe), etc.

All I know if I’m a player I would hate to sign any deals this offseason or next b/c it’s going to negatively affect your deal in either term, cap hit, trade restrictions or all the above.

Yup. That is why we saw Hall take a 1 year deal. Hall is taking a pretty big risk. He might have a bad year, or a career altering injury. On some level, I find myself admiring him, or maybe respecting is a better word, for taking that chance, rather than settling for something really unsatisfactory longer term.

We certainly saw some effects. I had expected more teams to be tightening up on spending, more trading of cap to the richer teams, more weaponizing of cap space by teams that had it. It isn't over yet. There are still teams over the cap.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Idk much about Debrusk, but i do like Carlo (although i do like Mcavoy even more.... but doubt BOS will move him for Laine). Will Laine complain when he's playing behind Pasta?

Fair question. Might depend on who his linemates are.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Avoiding Scheifele's next contract in 4 years? Getting rid of one of the best contracts in the league so that we can avoid the next contract in 4 years?

That seems awfully shortsighted. Especially since we'd be paying Eichel ~$4M per year for each of those 4 years. 3 of which will have a static salary cap.

I think saying "avoiding Scheif's next contract" is a poor way of expressing it. The need to pay 3.875 mil more per year is somewhat mitigated by having him under contract 2 years longer, which extends our window. And also having that next contract come up for a player who is a year and a half younger helps. Both players would be looking at a long term deal next time. The younger age makes that term easier to swallow. The rest of the contract value has to be covered by superior play. That is debatable.

If we are still talking about Scheifele, Laine for Eichel, Reinhart, then the difference in cost between Scheif and Eichel is at least partly covered by the difference in cost between Laine and Reinhart.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You need to be good to be lucky - and I wouldn't compare his game to Tavares. I think his numbers would explode playing for the Jets.

Hard to say. I think "explode" might be expecting too much. He has had pretty good wingers in Buffalo. He has played in front of weak D. He will likely have that issue in Wpg, at least for a year or two. He would not have as much pressure in Wpg. There are more offensive players to share that load. That might help him.

But it also depends on who else goes in the deal to get him. If he has KC and Reinhart on his wings, is that much different then when he had Skinner and Reinhart?

I would expect more from Jack because he is just entering his peak period. He has consistently outproduced Scheifele at the same ages. I'm not sure the scoring would be an awful lot more though.

 

[Hunter368]

Yup. That is why we saw Hall take a 1 year deal. Hall is taking a pretty big risk. He might have a bad year, or a career altering injury. On some level, I find myself admiring him, or maybe respecting is a better word, for taking that chance, rather than settling for something really unsatisfactory longer term.

We certainly saw some effects. I had expected more teams to be tightening up on spending, more trading of cap to the richer teams, more weaponizing of cap space by teams that had it. It isn't over yet. There are still teams over the cap.

Yeh.....I’m not sure how I feel about that regarding Hall......one side is respect and on the other it’s a negative opinion......but it’s certainly his right to do it so who cares what I or other fans think.

Yeh I agree I thought the rich teams would really step up and weaponize their cap and spending.........then you have the Jets who have the smallest rink in the NHL and small market team spending over the cap (temp step until LTIR kicks in).......that slightly surprised me and makes me tip my hat in respect that ownership was willing to do that knowing it will lose money but wants to put a winner on the ice anyways.

 

[WolfHouse]

This feels like weeks of debating an imaginary Eichel trade... love how Scheif and Laine are now expendable.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually I see Connor scoring more goals career wise than Laine. Goals are mostly scored in very close range to the net and this is were Connor scores goals. Laine scores long range and he would need to have somewhere in the 17-18% shooting % range unless he dramatically ups his shot total. For some reason the HFJets fan base has soured on their own Guy Lafleur. Not the most complete player but a guy who will likely have multiple 40-50 goal seasons and hit 500 by the time he retires.

If only KC was like Guy Lafleur!

Lafleur carried the puck like Ehlers. He created. He could dominate games. And he scored from in tight like Connor, as well as from everywhere else. Lafleur scored between 50 and 60 goals every year for 6 years straight and had more A's than G's in every one of those years, so he was a pretty good playmaker too.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Imo the damage is done with laine. Let’s just make sure we get something great for him.

 

[surixon]

Hard to say. I think "explode" might be expecting too much. He has had pretty good wingers in Buffalo. He has played in front of weak D. He will likely have that issue in Wpg, at least for a year or two. He would not have as much pressure in Wpg. There are more offensive players to share that load. That might help him.

But it also depends on who else goes in the deal to get him. If he has KC and Reinhart on his wings, is that much different then when he had Skinner and Reinhart?

I would expect more from Jack because he is just entering his peak period. He has consistently outproduced Scheifele at the same ages. I'm not sure the scoring would be an awful lot more though.

I mean we have our own case study here in Scheifele with regards to scoring on good and bad teams. Scheife produced just as well this past year where the team was worse in terms of metrics then Buffalo was as he did back in 17-18 where the Jets were elite.

I find caliber of the team doesn't much impact a star players scoring unless that player is playing with absolute duds as linemates. That wasn't the case for Jack and Buffalo has some good top talent, they lack defense and depth.

I fond usage and systems to be bigger factors in production. Maurice and Krueger are two peas in a pod as far as philosophy and systems are concerned so there wouldn't be a change there.

 

[Hunter368]

Imo the damage is done with laine. Let’s just make sure we get something great for him.

Thats one assumption, of course there other equally possible reasons also why he would be traded. Either way I agree if he is traded regardless of the reason let’s get something good.

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah, that sounds about right to me, good comps. I think that if you adjust for era, he might be right on Brett Hull, rather than saying "never to that level". In raw numbers that is probably correct, but Hull played in a higher scoring era.

When he was drafted and even after his rookie season, it looked like Laine might be all the way to Ovechkin rather than a poor man's version. The years since have lowered expectations a bit to that "poor man's" version.

I find a little confusion between talking about a players potential and our expectations for the player. They are similar, but not exactly the same things. His potential is a real thing, but it can't be pinned down precisely. We are all talking about our estimates of his potential. So in Laine's case, his potential is Ovechkin. Our expectation of him is Hull.

For him to end up like hull, he'll have to lead the league in goals. Even in the high scoring era, he had 76 one year. I'm not sure what the equivalent is, but it would have to be 60ish.

Skill wise, I see the comparison. Both have shots that can only be described as "god-given" in terms of velocity and release.

Furthermore, both are really laid back dudes.

We just need an Adam Oates for him

 

[KingBogo]

For him to end up like hull, he'll have to lead the league in goals. Even in the high scoring era, he had 76 one year. I'm not sure what the equivalent is, but it would have to be 60ish.

Skill wise, I see the comparison. Both have shots that can only be described as "god-given" in terms of velocity and release.

Furthermore, both are really laid back dudes.

We just need an Adam Oates for him

Couldn't agree more to the bolded and thought of that comparison before. A pure play maker that can find Laine in a multitude of ways would be ideal, especially if Ehlers remained on the other wing to help tilt the ice towards the offensive zone.