Speculation: Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation Part II

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yeah which is why I said we cant/should not/would not sign him. So does Duchene put us over the top really? I am pretty leery about saying yes to that, and so to me trading for him would wind up with nothing but fewer assets to show for it.

If you think he can be someone who pushes the needle to true contender then I could see trading for him, but we would just disagree which is fine.



If we are being fair to Duchene, lets be fair to Thornton. He and Pavs are not actually bad together, they are bad with Sorenson. Thornton/Pavs without Sorenson are like 60+ in possession metrics and 75% GF. The sample size is not huge because Sorenson has been stapled to Thornton's hip, but I do not think it is misleading either, accept that the GF% would probably come down some over a larger sample. In the little bit of time Thornton/Pavs/Meier have played together they were killing it too. Thornton is still one of our best possession forwards, which is crazy at his age and circumstances, but I think its clear he can no longer carry a line, he needs his wingers to share the burden.

So although I agree, and would prefer Thornton and Pavs to be separated, I think its more important to get Sorenson off their line IF they do stay together, because that line is not doing swell. I still want Labanc back on the third line, and he actually did fine with Thornton/Sorenson, so maybe give that another shot, because Labanc is not suited for a fourth line. If he is not traded that is.

It’s an interesting point that you make about the Joes without Sorensen but I don’t think we can trust an ~85 minute sample size that built itself over the course of 40 games. Things tend to get wonky in those samples and it doesn’t always mean they’re repeatable over 10+ games where guys actually play on a line together.

About 70 of those minutes are with Kane or Meier and 68.75% of them come with offensive zone faceoffs. A lot of those minutes come late in games where the Sharks are behind and PDB throws the lines in a blender, or at the end of an offensive zone shift where the Sharks are pressuring and the lines change. That’s very favorable deployment in wonky situations over a small sample size.

In my opinion, the Joes do not have the speed to play our system together. Our system is heavily reliant on back checking forwards covering for pinching defensemen and the Joes don’t have the speed to consistently be relied upon to do that. It isn’t so much an issue with just one of them, because they have 2 other linemates that can cover for the punches. With both of the Joes out, only one linemate can cover for those pinches. And this issue becomes exacerbated by the fact that the one linemate who can cover is the LW, and the one doing the pinches is generally the RD. The result is a forward line that can be pretty easily exposed by a fast team with the right coaching system.

I agree that we should have LaBanc on the 3rd line. (I think we did, last game?) I think he and Thorensen have looked pretty good together. Given our personnel, I don’t mind the lines as they are currently structured. I think Meier-Couture-Pavelski should be given a try but I’m skeptical of how they will do.

Long term, I don’t see a much better way to structure our lines. (Assuming Meier-Couture-Pavelski isn’t a total bust) The one thing I would probably want to do is swap Meier with Kane and shift a large portion of the defensive burden to Meier/Hertl and off of Couture, who is really struggling with the tougher competition. But the more I look at how to structure our forward lines, the more it becomes clear to me that we need to add at least one more playmaking forward.

The more I think about it I can see a deal for panarin involving Donskoi going the other way. Not saying Donskoi is anywhere close to panarin but he can be a playmaker on a second line.

To SJ
panarin

To CBJ
Donskoi
Leblanc
One of the sharks better prospects
2nd 2019

Funny enough, this is almost exactly what one CBJ fan proposed when I asked them on their board.

Understand that at this point we have no need for defensive prospects, with neither great offensive of defensive potential. So Merkley would mean nothing to us.

For Panarin?

Labanc, Donskoi, 3rd, conditional 1st if he re-signs.

Maybe add a Milano or somebody (essentially a throw in "prospect") to Panarin

However, I’m not sure if their actual GM would like that. Seems slanted in their favor.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I just don't think you can play Hertl and Meier together anymore unless absolutely necessary. They seem to be the 2 guys really driving possession and it decimates the rest of the lineup to play them together. Maybe they trade for someone who can carry the mail like those 2 so you have someone to babysit Couture? I dunno, but I wouldn't take Kane away from Hertl until that duo goes cold. They each add something the other doesn't have and it puts a tough guy on a line with the Sharks best forward to hopefully keep him relatively safe.

 

[Dicdonya]

It’s an interesting point that you make about the Joes without Sorensen but I don’t think we can trust an ~85 minute sample size that built itself over the course of 40 games. Things tend to get wonky in those samples and it doesn’t always mean they’re repeatable over 10+ games where guys actually play on a line together.

About 70 of those minutes are with Kane or Meier and 68.75% of them come with offensive zone faceoffs. A lot of those minutes come late in games where the Sharks are behind and PDB throws the lines in a blender, or at the end of an offensive zone shift where the Sharks are pressuring and the lines change. That’s very favorable deployment in wonky situations over a small sample size.

In my opinion, the Joes do not have the speed to play our system together. Our system is heavily reliant on back checking forwards covering for pinching defensemen and the Joes don’t have the speed to consistently be relied upon to do that. It isn’t so much an issue with just one of them, because they have 2 other linemates that can cover for the punches. With both of the Joes out, only one linemate can cover for those pinches. And this issue becomes exacerbated by the fact that the one linemate who can cover is the LW, and the one doing the pinches is generally the RD. The result is a forward line that can be pretty easily exposed by a fast team with the right coaching system.

I agree that we should have LaBanc on the 3rd line. (I think we did, last game?) I think he and Thorensen have looked pretty good together. Given our personnel, I don’t mind the lines as they are currently structured. I think Meier-Couture-Pavelski should be given a try but I’m skeptical of how they will do.

Long term, I don’t see a much better way to structure our lines. (Assuming Meier-Couture-Pavelski isn’t a total bust) The one thing I would probably want to do is swap Meier with Kane and shift a large portion of the defensive burden to Meier/Hertl and off of Couture, who is really struggling with the tougher competition. But the more I look at how to structure our forward lines, the more it becomes clear to me that we need to add at least one more playmaking forward.

Yeah to be clear, I am not saying that Thornton Pavs is ideal, but just that I do not think they are for sure a problem. I think its the combo of them with Sorenson that does not work for sure.

So yeah, I do agree overall that they should be separated, but I think that with the right line mate, Meier, Hertl, maybe even Kane (yeah I know it did not work earlier in the year) if his recent play is not predicated on playing with Hertl somehow, and he can do that with others, I think they could be on the same line, and it could be a good and productive line.

Also, even though production does not back it up right now, I think Pavs is the bigger issue than Thornton right now on that line. Which is why I would be ok moving Thornton up, lets just say to Donskoi's position, before I would want to move Pavs up with Kane/Hertl. To be honest I think that line would absolutely kill it, but there is no chance in hell Deboer tries it.

I agree with everything else you said either fully or mostly.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

For sure, but I'm not Doug and I will say he's more aggressive now than he ever used to be

This should be noted. He has totally changed his philosophy on a lot of things, such as long term contracts, behavior in the UFA market,

Just because he broods and has no sense of humor doesn't mean he's the next captain. And if it's near 1 to 1 for Sequin, DW makes that trade in a heartbeat. As has been detailed here by our numbers people, Cooch has been slowly falling in his advanced stats over the last few years. I don't see him catching a second wind like Pavs or Burns. I think half thru his contract he is no better than a 2nd line winger or 3rd line center. It seems that he's fallen off quite a bit since PDB took Hertl away from him this season.

This is best for a different thread, but I agree. It seems, and has for a while now, that the organization wants Couture to be the next captain. I personally think that’s not a good idea. I’ll leave it at that but I could go into further detail in a different thread.

Between this:



And the fact that we are scouting Dallas, I am already panicking about us acquiring Wayne Simmonds and Roman Polak. That would be absolutely awful.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

And the fact that we are scouting Dallas, I am already panicking about us acquiring Wayne Simmonds and Roman Polak. That would be absolutely awful.

Dude...

Seriously though I have faith that Doug now knows what this team needs. I'm anticipating that unless it's Stone, whoever he adds will be fast and not a liability on the ice (not saying Stone is a liability). Team has Kane, Hertl, Meier, Goody, and Jumbo (to a degree) as far as big bodies who can play physical. They need fast player to help create room for these guys. If they add Stone he doesn't bring that but that's fine considering everything else he does. Put him on Coutures wing with Pavs, move Meier to Jumbos wing with Sorenson and you have a top 9 that should be more than capable of beating every other team in the league on a nightly basis. Bring Shovels up at playoff time (he was a playoff performer in his euro league) and run Goody and Melker (we all know he ain't sitting) and they should be set for the playoffs. Yes Lebanc is traded in my scenario. Wouldn't mind adding Fehr (who clearly sucks as a center ) and keep Shovels in reserve though.

Kane, Hertl, Donkey
Stone (other?), Couture, Pavs
Sorenson, Jumbo, Meier
Goody, Feher, Melker
Shovels

 

[KirbyDots]

And the fact that we are scouting Dallas, I am already panicking about us acquiring Wayne Simmonds and Roman Polak. That would be absolutely awful.

We do play the Oilers on the coming road trip, could just be basic scouting.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

 

[SharksAddict]

And the fact that we are scouting Dallas, I am already panicking about us acquiring Wayne Simmonds and Roman Polak. That would be absolutely awful.

Simmonds would be a tremendous add IMO. They could use some extra grit up front. Great net front presence as well.

 

[undercovernerd]

Simmonds would be a tremendous add IMO. They could use some extra grit up front. Great net front presence as well.

Please, no. Please.

 

[undercovernerd]

Let’s just hope if not us, they stay out of the west. I’d be sick if Calgary, Vegas or Nashville picked one of them up.

 

[Lebanezer]

No way! I don’t believe it.

 

[Sysreq]

Duchene is a locker room cancer, hard pass on him.

I think we end up getting Reimer and Brassard from FLA. The buyout on Reimer sucks for FLA, due to a 3.2 million cap hit year 2. If they retain 1.5, he would have the same cap hit as Dell, and they would be +500k year 1, -1.7 million year 2, and -650k in years 3 and 4. If they take Dell back, they could probably move him for at least a pick since he only has a year left at a very reasonable cap hit.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This guy is all stats, no agenda or favorite team, and I don’t even think he watches the games.

For the record, I don’t agree with his opinion on Stone being a Hart Trophy front runner, but it’s still an interesting perspective worth posting.

 

[Tw1ster]

Kaner was apparently a locker room cancer until he reached San Jose. Sometimes it’s the culture in which that cancer grows. If The sharks can acquire Duchene, they should

 

[Sysreq]

I would love to get Stone, but we just don’t have the assets.

 

[undercovernerd]

I would love to get Stone, but we just don’t have the assets.

Please stop with this false narrative. I feel like people that say this, saw one post from another misinformed user and decided to repeat it.

We certainly have the assets to acquire Stone if we wanted him. The question would be; do we want to give those assets up to acquire Stone.

 

[Juxtaposer]

This guy is all stats, no agenda or favorite team, and I don’t even think he watches the games.

For the record, I don’t agree with his opinion on Stone being a Hart Trophy front runner, but it’s still an interesting perspective worth posting.

Actually, I think he’s an actual Sens fan. Could be wrong, though.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Actually, I think he’s an actual Sens fan. Could be wrong, though.

If he is, he does a great job of hiding his biases. I’ve never seen him post anything other than statistics based on his own model, which he treats as gospel and uses as his sole measurement stick or player evaluation.

I don’t think his model is perfect, but it is an interesting way to get a look at certain players.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I'd be super happy if we got Stone. Probably the best option for us, due to being friends with EK (better chance at resigning both) and being a very very good player

 

[Alaskanice]

Please stop with this false narrative. I feel like people that say this, saw one post from another misinformed user and decided to repeat it.

We certainly have the assets to acquire Stone if we wanted him. The question would be; do we want to give those assets up to acquire Stone.

I can’t agree more. Having some blind faith in DW shouldn’t be a bad thing. He acquired Thornton, Kane and Karlsson when all were pipe dreams.
Giving up assets to win the cup would be worth it to me. I want the Sharks to be Stanley Cup Champions while I still breathe.

 

[KirbyDots]

We had a scout at the last Wild/Stars game. We also don't play the Rangers of the Lightning again.

 

[Lebanezer]

We had a scout at the last Wild/Stars game. We also don't play the Rangers of the Lightning again.

Sharks are probably interested in Hayes, Zuccarello, Staal and Fehr. I doubt there’s anyone on the Lightning on Canadiens.

 

[KirbyDots]

Sharks are probably interested in Hayes, Zuccarello, Staal and Fehr. I doubt there’s anyone on the Lightning on Canadiens.

Tampa and the Habs are probably scouting the Yotes.

 

[Lebanezer]

Tampa and the Habs are probably scouting the Yotes.

That’s a good point. Lol. I never think about things in relation to other teams.

 

[one2gamble]

We aren't interested in fehr. They would have just kept him