Blue Jays Discussion: Trade Deadline Edition - Live from New York: The Stro-Show

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Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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Rookie question about IFA's:

How does it work in terms of signing them? How do the Yankees end up with Jasson Dominguez? Do they offer him the most out of their pool of money? Why aren't we in on a top guy? The last top guy we signed was Vlady iirc. This year we're rumored to be in on RiKelvin de Castro but he's ranked 27th on MLB.com.

Where is the rest of our pool of money going?

Sorry for the wave of questions but answers or where I can get answers would be appreciated.
 

Leafsdude7

Stand-Up Philosopher
Mar 26, 2011
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Guy won Executive of the Year a few hours ago at that time, he could have said what he wanted or the "no comment" that Donaldson said on his departure if any of these acquisitions against Shapiro were true.

Ted Nolan won coach of the year in 1997 and was not just fired from the Sabres but out of the NHL for pretty much 15 years because of off-ice politics. There's really not a lot of room for front office staff to play the Politically Incorrect game in today's environment.
 

phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Happ's 2018 with the Jays: 1.9 fWAR or 1.2 bWAR for 2 months + playoffs
Vargas's 2019 with the Mets: 1.1 fWAR or 1.6 bWAR for 2 months + potential playoffs.

Vargas also has a 2020 option with 8M or a buy out of 2M. Mets will pick up the some of Vargas' remaining salary.

Happ returned 3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of McKinney.
Vargas returned a 26 year old catcher from AA who cant hit above the Mendoza line.

is it me, or is the market getting worse and worse?
 
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hoc123

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Feb 23, 2014
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Rookie question about IFA's:

How does it work in terms of signing them? How do the Yankees end up with Jasson Dominguez? Do they offer him the most out of their pool of money? Why aren't we in on a top guy? The last top guy we signed was Vlady iirc. This year we're rumored to be in on RiKelvin de Castro but he's ranked 27th on MLB.com.

Where is the rest of our pool of money going?

Sorry for the wave of questions but answers or where I can get answers would be appreciated.

Essentially every team has a certain amount of money they can spend, for most teams I believe it is $5.5M. Most teams either, A) spend most of their money on 1 highly regarded prospect and then the rest on cheap prospects. Or B) spread their pool money around on many mid tier prospects. So the Blue Jays could have offered up to $5.5M for Dominguez, or anyone else, but it would have meant they would have had no money to spend on anyone else. Ultimately it’s up to the prospect to pick where he goes so it’s unknown whether the Yankees offered the most or not.

The Blue Jays this year likely spread around their pool money this year, but last year they did what the Yankees did and spent most of their money on Orelvis Martinez. It is also complicated by the fact that these deals are often made 1-2 years in advance of them actually signing, so you only have an estimate of how they will be by the time you can actually sign them.

There is some other details that further complicate how IFA’s work, but this is the gist of it.
 
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phillipmike

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The Blue Jays just acquired one of the top performers in the minor leagues

The main draw for the Blue Jays looks to be Woods Richardson, a highly-regarded right-handed starter who was selected by the Mets in the second round of last year’s draft. While he currently finds himself out of most top 100 lists, it was noted back in February over at FanGraphs that Woods Richardson could be flying up rankings in a short amount of time. Compared to other high school prospects, it was brought up that he had a high floor, along with a relatively good ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

The only pitcher that can really hold a comparison to Woods Richardson’s 2019 season from an age and performance standpoint is 2008 Madison Bumgarner (2.06 FIP in 141 2⁄3 innings). It took Bumgarner one year after that to log innings in Double-A and another year two years to mold himself into one of the game’s best pitchers. Obviously, those standards are completely unfair to hold to Woods Richardson, but with a similar polish to Bumgarner, a fastball that tops in the mid-90s, and an early track-record of strong numbers, it wouldn’t be unreasobale to think that Woods Richardson could have that same ascendance up the minor league ladder and the prospect ranks.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Just want to clarify my position on the Stroman trade outside of the jokes. Didn't like the trade, but definitely like the player. SWR is a good prospect. Big, athletic, throws hard, young for his level, and you can project on his secondaries. Nothing at all wrong with him as a piece. It's the overall package that left something to be desired, and we sent money to the Mets on top of it.


 
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TheMadHatTrick

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Nov 2, 2008
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Happ's 2018 with the Jays: 1.9 fWAR or 1.2 bWAR for 2 months + playoffs
Vargas's 2019 with the Mets: 1.1 fWAR or 1.6 bWAR for 2 months + potential playoffs.

Vargas also has a 2020 option with 8M or a buy out of 2M. Mets will pick up the some of Vargas' remaining salary.

Happ returned 3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of McKinney.
Vargas returned a 26 year old catcher from AA who can hit above the Mendoza line.

is it me, or is the market getting worse and worse?
I've been saying it since last season. This market sucks, especially since we're in a rebuild phase. I blame Fangraphs for placing and normalizing the overly inflated prices on prospects that don't account for attrition or risk in any substantive way. Jk :laugh:
 

NeverGoingToWin

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Why do people care about the money at all? I have a really hard time understanding why it is relevant to anything?

The money in the Stroman trade.
 
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Leafin

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Apr 2, 2009
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Essentially every team has a certain amount of money they can spend, for most teams I believe it is $5.5M. Most teams either, A) spend most of their money on 1 highly regarded prospect and then the rest on cheap prospects. Or B) spread their pool money around on many mid tier prospects. So the Blue Jays could have offered up to $5.5M for Dominguez, or anyone else, but it would have meant they would have had no money to spend on anyone else. Ultimately it’s up to the prospect to pick where he goes so it’s unknown whether the Yankees offered the most or not.

The Blue Jays this year likely spread around their pool money this year, but last year they did what the Yankees did and spent most of their money on Orelvis Martinez. It is also complicated by the fact that these deals are often made 1-2 years in advance of them actually signing, so you only have an estimate of how they will be by the time you can actually sign them.

There is some other details that further complicate how IFA’s work, but this is the gist of it.

Thanks for this. Absolute bonkers the money going to a 16 year old kid.

I was looking for a list of 2020 eligible players or who we might be linked to but not much came up. I wonder how they go about finding and signing these players. Crazy to think that we got that lucky that Vlady chose to sign with the Jays and not another team.
 

stickty111

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Just want to clarify my position on the Stroman trade outside of the jokes. Didn't like the trade, but definitely like the player. SWR is a good prospect. Big, athletic, throws hard, young for his level, and you can project on his secondaries. Nothing at all wrong with him as a piece. It's the overall package that left something to be desired, and we sent money to the Mets on top of it.



Pretty much my opinion as well. I like the piece, but should have had more.
 

Eyedea

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Jan 29, 2012
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Happ's 2018 with the Jays: 1.9 fWAR or 1.2 bWAR for 2 months + playoffs
Vargas's 2019 with the Mets: 1.1 fWAR or 1.6 bWAR for 2 months + potential playoffs.

Vargas also has a 2020 option with 8M or a buy out of 2M. Mets will pick up the some of Vargas' remaining salary.

Happ returned 3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of McKinney.
Vargas returned a 26 year old catcher from AA who cant hit above the Mendoza line.

is it me, or is the market getting worse and worse?

To be fair Happ was also on his 4th consecutive year pitching as a mid rotation starter, the strikeout rate was the highest of his career, and his fastball velo didn’t drop from 87 to 85 like Vargas’ has this year. His peripherals were solid, Vargas’ not so much.
 
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stickty111

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Jan 23, 2017
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I've been saying it since last season. This market sucks, especially since we're in a rebuild phase. I blame Fangraphs for placing and normalizing the overly inflated prices on prospects that don't account for attrition or risk in any substantive way. Jk :laugh:
The market is bad, but our management made it look worse then it is.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Discoverer said:
Fun fact about him, relating to our discussion the other day on FV not necessarily reflecting the upside of young players:

THE BOARD! | FanGraphs Baseball

Fangraphs SWR as the highest rated 18-year-old pitcher in baseball and the only one given a 45+ FV. Given his performance this year, I feel like it should be at least a 50, but I get it given his age. He's the kind of pitcher who could really shoot up in a hurry (along with Pardinho and, to a lesser extent, Kloffenstein).

Yeah initially looking at the trade I was a bit surprised by the discrepancy in Fangraphs FV's with MLB.com overall number rankings. but I noticed Fangraphs cuts off their 55 and lower FV's a LOT earlier than MLB.com does with their overall numbers. MLB.com had Kay a 55(now a 50 WTF? They updated about a week ago why not switch to a 50 then?) and SWR a 50 at the time of the trade, fangraphs a 45 and 45+(at least they have them in the correct order SWR should be higher rated).

Of the top 100 Fangraphs 45th guy is their last 55. MLB.com's entire top 100 goes to 55 so who knows how long past that it goes. Fangraphs cuts off their 50's at 122. It's entirely possible MLB.com's 55's go further than that. Looking team specific to get into lower rankings for the Jays Fangraphs cuts off our 45's at 9 with Pardinho. MLB.com's last 45 for us is 27 with Tanner Morris. MLB.com's last 50 for us is at 14 with Kirk which is further than Fangraphs go with their 45's. MLB.com doesn't call it future value rather and overall ranking of their tools, but I was initially thrown off a bit by that before I noticed the discrepancy thinking wow Fangraphs is low on these guys but now 45+ is really barely outside the top 100 the way Fangraphs rank things. I really need to start using Fangraphs more when looking at prospects.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Essentially every team has a certain amount of money they can spend, for most teams I believe it is $5.5M. Most teams either, A) spend most of their money on 1 highly regarded prospect and then the rest on cheap prospects. Or B) spread their pool money around on many mid tier prospects. So the Blue Jays could have offered up to $5.5M for Dominguez, or anyone else, but it would have meant they would have had no money to spend on anyone else. Ultimately it’s up to the prospect to pick where he goes so it’s unknown whether the Yankees offered the most or not.

The Blue Jays this year likely spread around their pool money this year, but last year they did what the Yankees did and spent most of their money on Orelvis Martinez. It is also complicated by the fact that these deals are often made 1-2 years in advance of them actually signing, so you only have an estimate of how they will be by the time you can actually sign them.

There is some other details that further complicate how IFA’s work, but this is the gist of it.

I have to laugh about how highly Dominguez is ranked without even playing any minor league ball though. 61 on Fangraphs, 72 on MLB.com. How long did it take Vlad to get into the top 100 from when he was signed? A year and a half(offseason 16/17?)

Not really sure which strategy is necessarily better here. There are certainly guys that make it worth it when they work out. Vlad being a great example of that. But going through a spreadsheet of all the 2012 through 2015 IFA signings there's a ton of big money given to guys and all I can think of it who is that? I remember following our 2014 biggest ticket Juan Meza, 11th ranked. Didn't even make it out of the GCL, the only sub 6 ERA year he posted was the year they turned him into a reliever for 19 innings. Now obviously he's not a clear #1 example but still.

I really like our 2017 class as of now. Nobody right at the top but #14 Pardinho, and Hiraldo in the 20's. Jiminez in the 30's. Alejandro Melean in the 30's as well doing ok.

Even 2016 when we were not allowed to go over 300k to anyone because of Vlad we signed Moreno for 25k and Kirk too. I really can't be upset at anything we've done from the IFA side recently so as annoying as it is we've not gotten the top end ranked guys this year it's a huge crapshoot, I trust what our scouts have found so far.
 

The Nemesis

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Happ's 2018 with the Jays: 1.9 fWAR or 1.2 bWAR for 2 months + playoffs
Vargas's 2019 with the Mets: 1.1 fWAR or 1.6 bWAR for 2 months + potential playoffs.

Vargas also has a 2020 option with 8M or a buy out of 2M. Mets will pick up the some of Vargas' remaining salary.

Happ returned 3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of McKinney.
Vargas returned a 26 year old catcher from AA who cant hit above the Mendoza line.

is it me, or is the market getting worse and worse?

This is why I've said the real test of whether or not the Stroman trade is "good" is going to be in how the market shakes down. Happ was better than Vargas if you take into account prior years history, but for a rental they were somewhat similar-ish, but the return went from a pair of young roster players with moderate upside to a guy who may never be anything at all given his track record. It may very well turn out that the Mets package the team got for Stroman is reasonable value. Even if we do end up with one rogue GM going out and paying through the nose as a Wednesday morning panic move.

Pretty much my opinion as well. I like the piece, but should have had more.

See above. I'm not quite saying we need to wait and see what Kay and Woods-Richardson become (what's the deal with his name? is it hyphenated? Is it just two separated last names somehow? Is Woods his middle name? Does he insist on going by 3 names like David Lee Roth or John Wilkes Booth or Lee Harvey Oswald? Should we be concerned that might be a sign that he's either a burnout or a would-be assassin? :sarcasm:), just that value is purchasing power. If it turns out that nobody else with pitchers to sell around Stroman's level gets a whole lot more or less than the Jays did, then that means the trade is ultimately an acceptable one.
 

Discoverer

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SWR has had a Syndergaardian season this year and he’ll be 18 in A+. Maybe we’re all just really underrating his ability.

I had a half-written post earlier today where I used the term "Syndergaardian" to describe him. There are a lot of similarities.

If he's even decent in Dunedin to end the year he's an easy Top 100 prospect in the offseason. Honestly, given his A-ball performance, he probably deserves it regardless of how he does at the next level.
 
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landy92mack29

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This is why I've said the real test of whether or not the Stroman trade is "good" is going to be in how the market shakes down. Happ was better than Vargas if you take into account prior years history, but for a rental they were somewhat similar-ish, but the return went from a pair of young roster players with moderate upside to a guy who may never be anything at all given his track record. It may very well turn out that the Mets package the team got for Stroman is reasonable value. Even if we do end up with one rogue GM going out and paying through the nose as a Wednesday morning panic move.



See above. I'm not quite saying we need to wait and see what Kay and Woods-Richardson become (what's the deal with his name? is it hyphenated? Is it just two separated last names somehow? Is Woods his middle name? Does he insist on going by 3 names like David Lee Roth or John Wilkes Booth or Lee Harvey Oswald? Should we be concerned that might be a sign that he's either a burnout or a would-be assassin? :sarcasm:), just that value is purchasing power. If it turns out that nobody else with pitchers to sell around Stroman's level gets a whole lot more or less than the Jays did, then that means the trade is ultimately an acceptable one.
Prospect Deep Dive: Simeon Woods Richardson, who could be best pitcher in Mets' minors

Seems he took on his step fathers last name and kept his birth fathers also
 

zeke

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I had a half-written post earlier today where I used the term "Syndergaardian" to describe him. There are a lot of similarities.

If he's even decent in Dunedin to end the year he's an easy Top 100 prospect in the offseason. Honestly, given his A-ball performance, he probably deserves it regardless of how he does at the next level.

I actually think he's a 55fv already.

Of course I place way more importance on age vs. level than most people do.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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Happ's 2018 with the Jays: 1.9 fWAR or 1.2 bWAR for 2 months + playoffs
Vargas's 2019 with the Mets: 1.1 fWAR or 1.6 bWAR for 2 months + potential playoffs.

Vargas also has a 2020 option with 8M or a buy out of 2M. Mets will pick up the some of Vargas' remaining salary.

Happ returned 3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of McKinney.
Vargas returned a 26 year old catcher from AA who cant hit above the Mendoza line.

is it me, or is the market getting worse and worse?

the idea of saying "3.5 years of Drury and 6 years of mckinney" to make them sound more valuable than replacement players kinda drives me nuts, tbh.
 
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