Speculation: Trade Deadline 2022

Status
Not open for further replies.

Kcb12345

Registered User
Jun 6, 2017
30,150
23,900
We are going to trade a first for Mark Giordano, aren’t we?

They have a few different dmen I could see the Stars targeting. Don't want any of em. Perhaps would make an exception for Vince Dunn. That's all

Ugh there's so much "meh" on the Kraken roster I don't want anything to do with 90% of their guys.
 

BfantZ

Registered User
Jun 22, 2017
2,640
1,149
They have a few different dmen I could see the Stars targeting. Don't want any of em. Perhaps would make an exception for Vince Dunn. That's all

Ugh there's so much "meh" on the Kraken roster I don't want anything to do with 90% of their guys.
I could just picture us bringing oleksiak back lol
 
  • Like
Reactions: Spotty 2 Hotty

eartotheground

capslock broken
Sponsor
Jul 7, 2006
3,113
1,671
Helsinki South
I’m not saying everything is random. I’m saying there’s more randomness than people like to think. Which is probably a good chunk of why teams like Vegas and Colorado can’t get over the hump. It’s why no one can accurately predict anything specific, even if the general consensus lines up with reality.

multiple studies have shown hockey to be the major sport with the most luck (randomness) involved in the outcome.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
multiple studies have shown hockey to be the major sport with the most luck (randomness) involved in the outcome.

Even if that were true on a game to game basis, there's no way it's more random than something like the NFL where it takes three wins to get to a superbowl. All that randomness is somewhat mitigated by having best of seven series. I think it's why you'll see unlikely teams make it to the cup finals every few years, but rarely ever win. Either the luck can't sustain itself for that long, or the other team that made it is so good that the lucky team can't outluck their way to wins. That's usually the case, because they made it to the cup finals.

Sure, luck is a factor, but you can't really control for luck. You can try to control how good your team is, and so the best thing to do will be to construct the most sustainably good team for as long as is feasible and hope that quality and luck end up on your side every few playoff runs. I think that was the point. There are so many cinderella teams that have been curb stomped in the finals, that I really can't understand how people can have such a positive outlook on mediocre teams making championship runs. I'm not saying that's what you were implying, but I still think it's one of the weirdest cliches in hockey. The playoffs generally aren't that unpredictable in a high level sense. Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA won nearly every cup from 2009-2017. That Boston team is the only exception. From 95-2003 it was Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado (and of course Dallas with it's 99 win!). In the 80's it was the Islanders, then the Oilers, etc. etc. Good teams tend to win out, apparently in large chunks for nearly a decade at a time.

Arguably, this cap era of hockey should be more random because teams can't outspend smaller markets as much to really dominate, but good teams seem to find a way regardless.
 
  • Like
Reactions: cizko

LT

XXXX - XXXX - XX__ - ____
Jul 23, 2010
42,049
13,819
Even if that were true on a game to game basis, there's no way it's more random than something like the NFL where it takes three wins to get to a superbowl. All that randomness is somewhat mitigated by having best of seven series. I think it's why you'll see unlikely teams make it to the cup finals every few years, but rarely ever win. Either the luck can't sustain itself for that long, or the other team that made it is so good that the lucky team can't outluck their way to wins. That's usually the case, because they made it to the cup finals.

Sure, luck is a factor, but you can't really control for luck. You can try to control how good your team is, and so the best thing to do will be to construct the most sustainably good team for as long as is feasible and hope that quality and luck end up on your side every few playoff runs. I think that was the point. There are so many cinderella teams that have been curb stomped in the finals, that I really can't understand how people can have such a positive outlook on mediocre teams making championship runs. I'm not saying that's what you were implying, but I still think it's one of the weirdest cliches in hockey. The playoffs generally aren't that unpredictable in a high level sense. Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA won nearly every cup from 2009-2017. That Boston team is the only exception. From 95-2003 it was Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado (and of course Dallas with it's 99 win!). In the 80's it was the Islanders, then the Oilers, etc. etc. Good teams tend to win out, apparently in large chunks for nearly a decade at a time.

Arguably, this cap era of hockey should be more random because teams can't outspend smaller markets as much to really dominate, but good teams seem to find a way regardless.

You realize football ends up being one of the least random sports by results, right? This isn’t even a debate really, it’s backed by data.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
You realize football ends up being one of the least random sports by results, right? This isn’t even a debate really, it’s backed by data.

You guys sure are throwing around those words around without any sort of proof. What data? And again, I'm sure it could be on a game-by-game basis, but the NHL plays so much more, that was my point.
 

BG44

Registered User
Jul 19, 2021
4,048
3,152
Zacha is the type of player Dallas could in theory add to balance out their Top 9. Same with DeBrusk. There may be a few RFAs that could get added to the list teams are looking to move, and you wouldn't be getting a rental. Nill's not really done that type of move before, but it wouldn't be the worst idea to get someone that could start developing chemistry now ... whatever happens this year happens ... and then maybe they can carry over to next year rather than an adjustment period potentially.

Theoretically ... Laine is that type of player too, and his name has been out there. I can't really wrap my head around what his acquisition cost would be though. They paid a ton for him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LT

BG44

Registered User
Jul 19, 2021
4,048
3,152
FWIW ... as cool as it would be to see Laine in Dallas, I don't actually think he fits in Dallas. There is no reason really to believe they're a Cup contender next year either, and you'll have a hard if not impossible time re-signing a guy like Laine after you pay Robertson and Hintz. They should probably not add anyone that they don't think fits potentially with their young core. Zacha just caught my attention because he is 25, and financially, he's probably someone you can fit if you wanted to go that route. Kapanen probably does as well since his name has apparently been out there. Roslovic and DeBrusk too.

Those are the only other RFAs I can think of that someone has mentioned as potentially available.
 

BG44

Registered User
Jul 19, 2021
4,048
3,152
Damn dude .... I never really paid attention to Kapanen's QO. Toronto was smart as hell with that. They gave most of his money as a signing bonus this season so his QO is super low. It was also signed prior to that new 120% rule.

I guess Kapanen bet on himself that a low QO wouldn't burn him ... and it shouldn't ... but that is a MUCH more favorable position than DeBrusk for example.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
As fun as the idea of a laine is, he’s just a significantly more talented gurianov, he’ll piss the coaching staff off and they’ll piss him off and he’ll look even worse when they refuse to give him prime PP time and even strength minutes. The point about the cap is probably more important, but even if that was mitigated somehow, he’d probably suck here.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Elysian

eartotheground

capslock broken
Sponsor
Jul 7, 2006
3,113
1,671
Helsinki South
You guys sure are throwing around those words around without any sort of proof. What data? And again, I'm sure it could be on a game-by-game basis, but the NHL plays so much more, that was my point.

Why it’s so much harder to predict winners in hockey than basketball
Hockey is luckiest major North American sport: Researchers | Toronto Sun
Luck and Skill Untangled: The Science of Success
In hockey, the researchers found, it’s pretty random. “The things that push you to the luck end of the spectrum is if you only play a few games, or if you only have a few scoring opportunities per game,” Hosoi says.
...
On the luck-versus-skill spectrum, the researchers found, the order of the major team sports goes like this: hockey, football, baseball, basketball. So, in the order of fewest scoring chances to most, more or less.
And if hockey is heavily influenced by randomness over the course of a regular season, would that be exacerbated in a short playoff series?
“That’s absolutely true, from a mathematical perspective,” Hosoi says.

remember, when you flip a coin, the 'luck' resets with every flip. previous results DO NOT affect future results. getting tails 9 times in a row does NOT mean you're more likely to get heads on the 10th flip. this is very similar to the effect that gives luck greater influence in short series of games, or in games with low scoring opportunities.
 

BG44

Registered User
Jul 19, 2021
4,048
3,152
Kraken, Capitals, and Panthers have scouted the last 3 games. Kings, Predators, NY Rangers, and Sharks have scouted 2 of the last 3 games. Kraken has 2 scouts at each of the previous 2 games.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
Why it’s so much harder to predict winners in hockey than basketball
Hockey is luckiest major North American sport: Researchers | Toronto Sun
Luck and Skill Untangled: The Science of Success


remember, when you flip a coin, the 'luck' resets with every flip. previous results DO NOT affect future results. getting tails 9 times in a row does NOT mean you're more likely to get heads on the 10th flip. this is very similar to the effect that gives luck greater influence in short series of games, or in games with low scoring opportunities.

The paragraphs below the one you mentioned sets up my main point:

And if hockey is heavily influenced by randomness over the course of a regular season, would that be exacerbated in a short playoff series?

“That’s absolutely true, from a mathematical perspective,” Hosoi says.

Four wins in seven games ramps up the luck factor even more. Which helps explain why only two of the past 10 winners of the Presidents’ Trophy managed to follow that up with a Stanley Cup victory.

“But having said that,” she says, “that curve is also pretty steep initially. Four out of seven is much better than three out of five.”

I'm no statistician by any means, but I've got an OK grasp on basic probability. I would disagree playoff series from game to game are mutually exclusive like a coin flip, but for simplicity's sake, we can entertain that. The sample sizes are still relatively small, and obviously teams in the NHL tend to be closer together than many other sports, I don't disagree that luck is not a big factor. It's just not a big enough factor to override skilled teams over time. If it were, you'd have a ton more surprise cinderella winners. Like your third article mentions, regression to the mean is a thing, and hot teams fall back to earth over time.

Thanks for finding the articles, though. My main point is still the same, people who think random 8th in their conference teams could win every year with a bit of luck are overweighting luck and underweighting skill in the equation that makes up hockey success in the NHL. If hockey were like football, and the team that wins 4 games in a row won the cup, I'd absolutely advocate trying to make it in no matter what. I would generally agree that any team can string 4 games together, well, maybe not the Coyotes or the Canadiens this year, but the other 30 could do it.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
Kraken, Capitals, and Panthers have scouted the last 3 games. Kings, Predators, NY Rangers, and Sharks have scouted 2 of the last 3 games. Kraken has 2 scouts at each of the previous 2 games.

I literally cannot think of anything I'd want from the Kraken outside of Matthew Beniers (firmly in the pipe dream category). They don't have many interesting prospects to speak of, they're all just freshly drafted so unlikely to be traded. They have no extra picks because they botched the expansion draft, and they don't have any young-ish, or particularly interesting players because... they botched the expansion draft. I don't think there's a scenario where they're a good trade partner for building towards the future unless they're willing to pony up 2 1st round picks for Klingberg. Kind of afraid of a Klingberg extended for Giordano + 2nd or something similarly awful.

Ron Francis is also insanely conservative, he just doesn't make trades at all. If he's making a trade, it's probably because he's incredibly sure that he's winning the trade, or it's inconsequential.

Edit: We don't play Seattle until April, so am now even more concerned that this is purely to scout out trades.
 

Smelling Salt

Busey is life
Mar 8, 2006
7,091
3,549
Winnipeg
I'm not even sure what the Kraken want from Dallas anyway. Seems pointless to trade for Klingberg unless they have a handshake deal with Klinger's camp in place, but even then that can still be done in the off season.

Oh wait they have Big Rig and Giordano. No thanks.

EDIT: Oh wait they have Grubauer too. Can totally see Nill frothing at the mouth thinking of him in a Stars uniform.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Elysian

BfantZ

Registered User
Jun 22, 2017
2,640
1,149
I literally cannot think of anything I'd want from the Kraken outside of Matthew Beniers (firmly in the pipe dream category). They don't have many interesting prospects to speak of, they're all just freshly drafted so unlikely to be traded. They have no extra picks because they botched the expansion draft, and they don't have any young-ish, or particularly interesting players because... they botched the expansion draft. I don't think there's a scenario where they're a good trade partner for building towards the future unless they're willing to pony up 2 1st round picks for Klingberg. Kind of afraid of a Klingberg extended for Giordano + 2nd or something similarly awful.

Ron Francis is also insanely conservative, he just doesn't make trades at all. If he's making a trade, it's probably because he's incredibly sure that he's winning the trade, or it's inconsequential.

Edit: We don't play Seattle until April, so am now even more concerned that this is purely to scout out trades.
1 unprotected first would be nice .
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
I'm not even sure what the Kraken want from Dallas anyway. Seems pointless to trade for Klingberg unless they have a handshake deal with Klinger's camp in place, but even then that can still be done in the off season.

Oh wait they have Big Rig and Giordano. No thanks.

EDIT: Oh wait they have Grubauer too. Can totally see Nill frothing at the mouth thinking of him in a Stars uniform.

You're right, I assume they're looking at Klingberg with an extension in place immediately after the trade. I would want no less than 2 first rounders for that, and I seriously don't care about any of their roster players whatsoever, they're not worth much, to the Stars at least.
 

BG44

Registered User
Jul 19, 2021
4,048
3,152
Klingberg and his agent have free reign from Dallas to talk to other teams. It wouldn't be a handshake agreement. It would be something like Stone and Jones where the contract and trade are essentially confirmed at the same time.

The only non-playoff team I've seen someone suggest with potential interest was the NY Islanders. I'm not exactly sure why Seattle would get in on that seeing as how that addition doesn't really push them over the top or anything. There'd be a reasonable chance Klingberg would be declining by the time they were competing.

Maybe Dallas is quietly shopping a restricted free agent like Gurianov. Maybe they just wanted to check out some Central teams or get a jump start on potential UFAs in the summer. It's hard to imagine a fit for them with Dallas' roster. It'd be a bit more concerning if they were scouting the Texas Stars.
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
I would be shocked if Gurianov wasn't in trade talks, that makes some sense. If I had to guess as to why Seattle is looking at Klingberg, it's because they think they can compete over the next few seasons. Despite what people have speculated, I'm very sure that team was built to try and make the playoffs. Did they do a bad job of that? Yes. But to be fair, the Pacific isn't very good right now, and the Kraken's goaltending has been disastrous levels of bad. I think with some better goaltending they could have been right in the bubble with Dallas, Edmonton, Anaheim, and LA. It's ill-advised, but I guess as Stars fans we can relate to that.

Maybe there's a galaxy brained three way trade where the Stars get some Panthers prospect and Chris Driedger, the Panthers get Klingberg or Pavelski retained by the Stars and the Kraken, and the Kraken get Spencer Knight and Gurianov? Never going to happen, but would be wild if it did.
 

Johno

We deserve it
Oct 30, 2013
5,053
2,877
I would be shocked if Gurianov wasn't in trade talks, that makes some sense. If I had to guess as to why Seattle is looking at Klingberg, it's because they think they can compete over the next few seasons. Despite what people have speculated, I'm very sure that team was built to try and make the playoffs. Did they do a bad job of that? Yes. But to be fair, the Pacific isn't very good right now, and the Kraken's goaltending has been disastrous levels of bad. I think with some better goaltending they could have been right in the bubble with Dallas, Edmonton, Anaheim, and LA. It's ill-advised, but I guess as Stars fans we can relate to that.

Maybe there's a galaxy brained three way trade where the Stars get some Panthers prospect and Chris Driedger, the Panthers get Klingberg or Pavelski retained by the Stars and the Kraken, and the Kraken get Spencer Knight and Gurianov? Never going to happen, but would be wild if it did.

Because we need 5 goaltenders?
 

Captain Awesome

Registered User
Mar 29, 2008
6,761
1,087
Long Beach, CA
Because we need 5 goaltenders?

You can fill in the blanks for balance, but clearly this team loves goaltenders, so why not?

After this season you basically only have Oettinger, assuming Khudobin will continue to be buried in the minors forever. I don't want this to happen, it just seems like the kind of dumb plausible thing that could happen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Johno
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad