Speculation: Trade Deadline 2022

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LT

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Jul 23, 2010
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Would something around Jost for Hakanpaa interest Stars fans?

No. Hakanpaa isn’t moving for anything reasonable.

He specifically chose Dallas and signed a very underpaid deal to come here. Moving him would be a bad move for recruiting future UFAs, not to mention it would probably piss off the other Finns on the team.

The type of overpayment it would take is the type to put a GM on the hot seat immediately. He’s in one of those strange positions where his value to Dallas is WAY higher than it is to any other team.
 

Perratrooper

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May 26, 2016
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No. Hakanpaa isn’t moving for anything reasonable.

He specifically chose Dallas and signed a very underpaid deal to come here. Moving him would be a bad move for recruiting future UFAs, not to mention it would probably piss off the other Finns on the team.

The type of overpayment it would take is the type to put a GM on the hot seat immediately. He’s in one of those strange positions where his value to Dallas is WAY higher than it is to any other team.

Completely fair, he checks off a lot of boxes for the Avs so I figured it would be worth checking in on. Does Jost hold any interest to you guys?
 

LT

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Completely fair, he checks off a lot of boxes for the Avs so I figured it would be worth checking in on. Does Jost hold any interest to you guys?

How has he been playing lately? I know he was pretty hyped as a youngster but I haven’t heard much about him since. Does he still have top 6 potential?
 

Perratrooper

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May 26, 2016
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How has he been playing lately? I know he was pretty hyped as a youngster but I haven’t heard much about him since. Does he still have top 6 potential?

I would say it is extremely unlikely he is ever a top 6 forward, right now he’s a good 4th liner. I personally feel there is some untapped potential there, but the longer he’s with the Avs the more likely it is to complete disappear. He just does not fit the style of hockey the Avs currently play which emphasizes speed and while Jost is an Average skater, his combination of size and speed are not good enough to be as effective as he should be. I think he can be a decent third line center.
 

Johno

We deserve it
Oct 30, 2013
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Completely fair, he checks off a lot of boxes for the Avs so I figured it would be worth checking in on. Does Jost hold any interest to you guys?
Not really doing much for me. Just seems like a lot of the guys we have coming up, except Jost is a lot more expensive. Energy, tweener type guy.

Ps. Why is every other fan base, out of the blue, having a massive hard/on for OUR Hakanpaa!
 
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Satan

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Apr 13, 2010
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I think we overvalue Jani Hakanpaa on this board. I am a Jani truther but I think we overvalue him.

Right now the group is trying to make the playoffs and win with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Despite how misguided this might be, I don't think they would move Hakanpaa for project players right now. I do think if we had a management change and they decided to year the team down, Hakanpaa would be an attractive piece to a lot of teams.

Now, in the case where the Avalanche are desperate for Hakanpaa and offered Alex Newhook... I think that pushes this trade through. (No bias)
 
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Perratrooper

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Not really doing much for me. Just seems like a lot of the guys we have coming up, except Jost is a lot more expensive. Energy, tweener type guy.

Ps. Why is every other fan base, out of the blue, having a massive hard/on for OUR Hakanpaa!

Size, contract, play? He’s a very solid #5 that a lot of teams would love to have on their bottom pair and with some of the struggles Dallas has had this season as well as some of the players they could potentially sell off to try and do a quick re-tool
 

Johno

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I think we overvalue Jani Hakanpaa on this board. I am a Jani truther but I think we overvalue him.

Right now the group is trying to make the playoffs and win with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Despite how misguided this might be, I don't think they would move Hakanpaa for project players right now. I do think if we had a management change and they decided to year the team down, Hakanpaa would be an attractive piece to a lot of teams.

Now, in the case where the Avalanche are desperate for Hakanpaa and offered Alex Newhook... I think that pushes this trade through. (No bias)

Nah bruh, Jani’s killing it with the suppression of shots, chances and goals against. The price is laughable for what he brings. And as long as Stars keep up this system or anything near it, he will be the second most valuable defender. Bettered only by Miro.
 

Satan

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Nah bruh, Jani’s killing it with the suppression of shots, chances and goals against. The price is laughable for what he brings. And as long as Stars keep up this system or anything near it, he will be the second most valuable defender. Bettered only by Miro.

Ya but if we want to lose, why would we want to suppress shots? Makes me think
 

Magic Mittens

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Nov 2, 2006
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I think you're probably riding the emotional highs of wins and losses a little bit too much if a win last night at home raises the needle that much.

They definitely may not sell, but you're going to get exhausted if the nightly results have significant sway.

I think it would be wise to give them some road games before we give them wins for games in hand.

Im not saying I think we’ll win those games, but I’m sure that’s how Nill see’s it. I’d like to see us be sellers, but I’m afraid Nill won’t

We either just miss the playoffs, or we finish 8th and play Colorado
 

Johno

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Im not saying I think we’ll win those games, but I’m sure that’s how Nill see’s it. I’d like to see us be sellers, but I’m afraid Nill won’t

We either just miss the playoffs, or we finish 8th and play Colorado

With their shitty goaltending, I am not nearly as pessimistic against them as the lot of ya. Kuemper is bad, like I predicted before the season and I doubt Francouz will keep up his hot run.

(Will change if they can upgrade at the TDL)
 
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Sports2

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Jul 1, 2018
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They only need Anaheim to stick around (unlikely) or Edmonton to turn it around (now more likely than it was last week). Winnipeg has an outside shot as well. Any of those teams beat Dallas and they miss.
 
Sep 20, 2013
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With their shitty goaltending, I am not nearly as pessimistic against them as the lot of ya. Kuemper is bad, like I predicted before the season and I doubt Francouz will keep up his hot run.

(Will change if they can upgrade at the TDL)

Yeah, my preferred playoff scenario is getting the Avs in the first round so we can crush their dreams again. Colorado is a paper tiger, built to stat pad in the regular season and then fold in the playoffs, particularly once their soft D has to deal with a relentless forecheck for 7 games. Many of their players are made of glass as well, so there's no such thing as a 'healthy Avs roster' in the playoffs.

After that, I don't care what round the Stars bow out. I just want an entertaining offseason of watching Colorado try to fix their team after yet another failure when they were predicted to be so much better. (It will serve as a distraction from the Stars doing nothing much, as usual :laugh: :help:).
 

Captain Awesome

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Mar 29, 2008
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With their shitty goaltending, I am not nearly as pessimistic against them as the lot of ya. Kuemper is bad, like I predicted before the season and I doubt Francouz will keep up his hot run.

(Will change if they can upgrade at the TDL)

This was true earlier in the season, but I think he's reversed course a bit.

NHL Goalie Statistics

Colorado and Toronto both strike me as the teams people make fun of until they finally break through and win a cup, or maybe just fall short. They're hanging around the 'got swept by the blue jackets' stage of their playoff success, except Colorado hasn't done anything nearly that bad. Other than that sketchy as hell win by Boston, I always think of tBoston as that team that just wasn't quite good enough to string together multiple cup wins, but has been really good for a long time. I think the line between being LA/Chicago/Tampa/Pittsburgh and a Boston type team is pretty thin and could be chalked up to luck in instances (also maybe don't trade away Kessel, Hamilton, and Seguin). This is probably Colorado's best opportunity to break through, though, the rest of the conference is trash, except Vegas, so I think this is a big year for them.
 
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Johno

We deserve it
Oct 30, 2013
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This was true earlier in the season, but I think he's reversed course a bit.

NHL Goalie Statistics

Colorado and Toronto both strike me as the teams people make fun of until they finally break through and win a cup, or maybe just fall short. They're hanging around the 'got swept by the blue jackets' stage of their playoff success, except Colorado hasn't done anything nearly that bad. Other than that sketchy as hell win by Boston, I always think of tBoston as that team that just wasn't quite good enough to string together multiple cup wins, but has been really good for a long time. I think the line between being LA/Chicago/Tampa/Pittsburgh and a Boston type team is pretty thin and could be chalked up to luck in instances (also maybe don't trade away Kessel, Hamilton, and Seguin). This is probably Colorado's best opportunity to break through, though, the rest of the conference is trash, except Vegas, so I think this is a big year for them.

they have been better as of late, but they are not winning goalies, imo.
 

LT

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Jul 23, 2010
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This was true earlier in the season, but I think he's reversed course a bit.

NHL Goalie Statistics

Colorado and Toronto both strike me as the teams people make fun of until they finally break through and win a cup, or maybe just fall short. They're hanging around the 'got swept by the blue jackets' stage of their playoff success, except Colorado hasn't done anything nearly that bad. Other than that sketchy as hell win by Boston, I always think of tBoston as that team that just wasn't quite good enough to string together multiple cup wins, but has been really good for a long time. I think the line between being LA/Chicago/Tampa/Pittsburgh and a Boston type team is pretty thin and could be chalked up to luck in instances (also maybe don't trade away Kessel, Hamilton, and Seguin). This is probably Colorado's best opportunity to break through, though, the rest of the conference is trash, except Vegas, so I think this is a big year for them.

There's always a team or two like this every several years.

San Jose in the late 2000s/early 2010s, Vancouver, St. Louis, Nashville a bit more recently, now Colorado and Toronto. These teams struggle to make it deep into the playoffs and often only get one shot if they do. For the last three or four years now people have been saying it's Colorado's time for a deep run - how much longer are people going to keep saying this?

There's a LOT more randomness in hockey than most players, managers, and fans want to admit. A team can set themselves up on the right trend, but they almost always need some luck to push them over the edge. Sometimes that's a strong playoff run by a player or two (especially a goalie, just look at St. Louis). Dallas even falls into this category with the luck of how the bubble worked out. Tampa got lucky with some huge late round draft hits.

There is no exact science to building a successful team. That's why following the sport is so fun and every team theoretically has a realistic chance at being a contender five years from now.

I got very emotionally jaded by the Finals run, although I did truly enjoy the entire ride as well. Being jaded has helped me to sit back and just enjoy the game for what it is - a game. Would I like to see the Stars win? Of course. But that isn't going to happen every game, every year, etc. Looking at the long term helps to put the small term into perspective.
 
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David Castillo

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Oct 29, 2014
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Randomness is not the same as evitability. There's playing the odds, and there's relying on the odds. The teams that win are dominant teams who find the right breaks. The Athletic did a breakdown, using an NBA template, on what roughly defines a championship window. Turns out, there's quite a few common denominators:
  • A team must finish the regular season with 100 or more points
  • A team must be in the top 10 on both special-team units
  • A team must be in the top five in goals-for percentage and expected goals-for percentage
  • And have advanced to the second round of the playoffs the previous year
So sure, teams that "can't win in the playoffs" may get ousted or embarrassed when the chips are down. But the teams that can dominate in the regular season are much more likely to win big in the postseason eventually. Or at least more likely than others.
 

LT

XXXX - XXXX - ____ - ____
Jul 23, 2010
41,962
13,606
Randomness is not the same as evitability. There's playing the odds, and there's relying on the odds. The teams that win are dominant teams who find the right breaks. The Athletic did a breakdown, using an NBA template, on what roughly defines a championship window. Turns out, there's quite a few common denominators:
  • A team must finish the regular season with 100 or more points
  • A team must be in the top 10 on both special-team units
  • A team must be in the top five in goals-for percentage and expected goals-for percentage
  • And have advanced to the second round of the playoffs the previous year
So sure, teams that "can't win in the playoffs" may get ousted or embarrassed when the chips are down. But the teams that can dominate in the regular season are much more likely to win big in the postseason eventually. Or at least more likely than others.

I’m not saying everything is random. I’m saying there’s more randomness than people like to think. Which is probably a good chunk of why teams like Vegas and Colorado can’t get over the hump. It’s why no one can accurately predict anything specific, even if the general consensus lines up with reality.
 
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